Win Total Top Bets - ACC Atlantic
August 29, 2015
Boston College Eagles – OVER 5.5 Wins
Head coach Steve Addazio has BC moving in the right direction. After back to back bowl appearances we think they have a great shot at another, thus we lean to the OVER 5.5 wins here. They finished 7-6 last year and three of those losses came by 4 points or less, including tight setbacks to Florida State & Clemson. The running game should be solid if the new offensive line comes together. The defense, which ranked 2nd nationally against the run, returns 5 of their front 7. The Eagles play only 4 true road games and their non-conference slate includes Maine, Howard, and Northern Illinois.
Clemson Tigers – OVER 8.5 Wins
The Tigers have won 10 games or more in 4 straight seasons. We think they have a great chance to reach that level again in 2015 and with this number set fairly low at 8.5, we like the OVER. QB Deshaun Watson should be back to full strength after starting just 5 games last year due to injury (knee & finger). He has a great arsenal of weapons and the offense should be very good. Defensively the Tigers ranked #1 in the nation last year allowing only 260 YPG. They lose a lot in the front 7, however the secondary should be among the best in the ACC. The Tigers get FSU at home and their they have a great shot at winning their roadies at NC State, at Syracuse, at Miami FL.
Florida State Seminoles – OVER 9.5 Wins
This total is set a bit low in our opinion. FSU has topped this total in 4 of their last 5 seasons and they only time they didn’t their record was 9-4 missing this year’s total by just one win. Many feel the offense will fall off with Jameis Winston moving onto the NFL. Let’s not forget that former Notre Dame QB, Everett Golson has transferred in and will almost assuredly be the starter. He was 12-1 in his 13 starts for the Irish with his only loss coming in the National Championship game. The Noles defense should be loaded again with NFL talent all over the field. The schedule isn’t bad with 7 home games. They haven’t lost a home game in 2 years so we expect them to run the table at Doak Campbell Stadium. Just a few road wins gets them over this number.
Louisville Cardinals – UNDER 7.5 Wins
The Cards finished 5-3 in their first year in the ACC a year ago. We expect a step back this year and U of L simply lost too many good players in our opinion. They only have 9 total starters returning and had a whopping 10 players drafted off last year’s team. The Birds struggled at the QB position last year and they were very unsettled at that spot coming out of spring ball. They lost 5 of their top 6 pass catchers and the offensive line is very inexperienced with only 19 career starts among the entire group. The defense was great last year but with only 4 starters back, we expect a drop off. Half of their games are on the road or in “neutral” situations. Two of the Cards first three games are against Auburn & Clemson so they may get off to a slow start and set the tone for a “slower” type season.
NC State Wolfpack – OVER 7.5 Wins
Tough call for us on this one but we’ll lean slightly to the OVER. Offensively the Pack averaged 30 PPG last year on 409 total yards per game. They should be able to match or even improve that this season. They return QB Brissett, their top 3 rushers, and 5 of their top 7 pass catchers. The offensive line will start 4 seniors as well. Defensively this team was all over the map last year. They held WF, Syracuse, and UNC to 17 points or less last year but every other ACC team scored at least 30 on them. The bring back 8 starters on that side of the ball and 4 of their top 5 tacklers return. If they are just “OK” on that side of the ball, the offense should do enough to get 8 wins. NC State should get off to a fast start as they open with Troy, Eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion, and South Alabama. They should start 4-0 and then they’ll need a .500 ACC mark to get to 8 wins. Again, we think the NCST’s wins land right around this number, probably 7 or 8 and we’ll lean to 8 and the OVER.
Syracuse Orange – UNDER 4.5 Wins
This is another tough call for us but we’ll slightly lean UNDER 4.5 wins. The Orange offense was abysmal last year scoring only 17 PPG. They really struggle down the stretch scoring only 47 total points over their last 5 games. However, some of that was due to back luck as the Cuse had a number of key injuries. That included starting QB Hunt who played in only the first 5 games of the season before being lost of the season. The defense was very good last season allowing only 349 YPG. We don’t expect a repeat with just 3 starters back on that side of the ball and the loss of their top 5 tacklers. We are a bit on edge taking the UNDER here because their schedule starts with Rhode Island, Wake Forest, and Central Michigan so it’s conceivable they could be 3-0 heading to their game vs LSU on September 26th. However, once October hits the Cuse has just 3 home games the remainder of the season. Their schedule is tough and with a lack of offense and a defense that should fall off, we are looking at a 4 win season for them (they were 3-9 last year). A very slight lean to the UNDER.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons – UNDER 3.5 Wins
This is a tough call but we’ll push slightly to the UNDER. Wake finished 3-9 a year ago and while they should be improved as a whole, their record may not show it. This team was horrendous offensively a year ago. They averaged only 14 PPG on 216 total yards per game. They could not run the ball at all (40 YPG rushing). Two of their three wins last year came by 3 point margins. Their lone “easy” win was against Gardner Webb, a 23-7 final. Every loss but two came by double digits. Dave Clawson is a solid coach in our opinion, however he had almost nothing to work with when he took over. This is still a very young team with only 6 seniors on their entire team. We think Wake will get better under Clawson, but it will take at least another year. We’ll call for another 3-9 campaign and take the UNDER here.
August 29, 2015
Boston College Eagles – OVER 5.5 Wins
Head coach Steve Addazio has BC moving in the right direction. After back to back bowl appearances we think they have a great shot at another, thus we lean to the OVER 5.5 wins here. They finished 7-6 last year and three of those losses came by 4 points or less, including tight setbacks to Florida State & Clemson. The running game should be solid if the new offensive line comes together. The defense, which ranked 2nd nationally against the run, returns 5 of their front 7. The Eagles play only 4 true road games and their non-conference slate includes Maine, Howard, and Northern Illinois.
Clemson Tigers – OVER 8.5 Wins
The Tigers have won 10 games or more in 4 straight seasons. We think they have a great chance to reach that level again in 2015 and with this number set fairly low at 8.5, we like the OVER. QB Deshaun Watson should be back to full strength after starting just 5 games last year due to injury (knee & finger). He has a great arsenal of weapons and the offense should be very good. Defensively the Tigers ranked #1 in the nation last year allowing only 260 YPG. They lose a lot in the front 7, however the secondary should be among the best in the ACC. The Tigers get FSU at home and their they have a great shot at winning their roadies at NC State, at Syracuse, at Miami FL.
Florida State Seminoles – OVER 9.5 Wins
This total is set a bit low in our opinion. FSU has topped this total in 4 of their last 5 seasons and they only time they didn’t their record was 9-4 missing this year’s total by just one win. Many feel the offense will fall off with Jameis Winston moving onto the NFL. Let’s not forget that former Notre Dame QB, Everett Golson has transferred in and will almost assuredly be the starter. He was 12-1 in his 13 starts for the Irish with his only loss coming in the National Championship game. The Noles defense should be loaded again with NFL talent all over the field. The schedule isn’t bad with 7 home games. They haven’t lost a home game in 2 years so we expect them to run the table at Doak Campbell Stadium. Just a few road wins gets them over this number.
Louisville Cardinals – UNDER 7.5 Wins
The Cards finished 5-3 in their first year in the ACC a year ago. We expect a step back this year and U of L simply lost too many good players in our opinion. They only have 9 total starters returning and had a whopping 10 players drafted off last year’s team. The Birds struggled at the QB position last year and they were very unsettled at that spot coming out of spring ball. They lost 5 of their top 6 pass catchers and the offensive line is very inexperienced with only 19 career starts among the entire group. The defense was great last year but with only 4 starters back, we expect a drop off. Half of their games are on the road or in “neutral” situations. Two of the Cards first three games are against Auburn & Clemson so they may get off to a slow start and set the tone for a “slower” type season.
NC State Wolfpack – OVER 7.5 Wins
Tough call for us on this one but we’ll lean slightly to the OVER. Offensively the Pack averaged 30 PPG last year on 409 total yards per game. They should be able to match or even improve that this season. They return QB Brissett, their top 3 rushers, and 5 of their top 7 pass catchers. The offensive line will start 4 seniors as well. Defensively this team was all over the map last year. They held WF, Syracuse, and UNC to 17 points or less last year but every other ACC team scored at least 30 on them. The bring back 8 starters on that side of the ball and 4 of their top 5 tacklers return. If they are just “OK” on that side of the ball, the offense should do enough to get 8 wins. NC State should get off to a fast start as they open with Troy, Eastern Kentucky, Old Dominion, and South Alabama. They should start 4-0 and then they’ll need a .500 ACC mark to get to 8 wins. Again, we think the NCST’s wins land right around this number, probably 7 or 8 and we’ll lean to 8 and the OVER.
Syracuse Orange – UNDER 4.5 Wins
This is another tough call for us but we’ll slightly lean UNDER 4.5 wins. The Orange offense was abysmal last year scoring only 17 PPG. They really struggle down the stretch scoring only 47 total points over their last 5 games. However, some of that was due to back luck as the Cuse had a number of key injuries. That included starting QB Hunt who played in only the first 5 games of the season before being lost of the season. The defense was very good last season allowing only 349 YPG. We don’t expect a repeat with just 3 starters back on that side of the ball and the loss of their top 5 tacklers. We are a bit on edge taking the UNDER here because their schedule starts with Rhode Island, Wake Forest, and Central Michigan so it’s conceivable they could be 3-0 heading to their game vs LSU on September 26th. However, once October hits the Cuse has just 3 home games the remainder of the season. Their schedule is tough and with a lack of offense and a defense that should fall off, we are looking at a 4 win season for them (they were 3-9 last year). A very slight lean to the UNDER.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons – UNDER 3.5 Wins
This is a tough call but we’ll push slightly to the UNDER. Wake finished 3-9 a year ago and while they should be improved as a whole, their record may not show it. This team was horrendous offensively a year ago. They averaged only 14 PPG on 216 total yards per game. They could not run the ball at all (40 YPG rushing). Two of their three wins last year came by 3 point margins. Their lone “easy” win was against Gardner Webb, a 23-7 final. Every loss but two came by double digits. Dave Clawson is a solid coach in our opinion, however he had almost nothing to work with when he took over. This is still a very young team with only 6 seniors on their entire team. We think Wake will get better under Clawson, but it will take at least another year. We’ll call for another 3-9 campaign and take the UNDER here.
