Cnotes 2015 College Conference Preview News,Notes,All You Need To Know !

[CNOTES]

2015 AAC Preview


June 7, 2015


2015 American Athletic Conference Football Preview


Feels Like The First Time


You know you’ve arrived when your newly formed football conference announces that the first American Athletic Conference Football Championship will be played on championship week the first weekend in December this year.


The 2015 season will be The American’s first in its new 12-team, two-division format, in which each team will play eight conference games. Each team will face the other five teams in its own division as well as three teams from the other division.


The divisional champions will be the teams from each division with the highest winning percentage in all conference games – both divisional and non-divisional. In the event of a two-team tie within a division, the head-to-head result between the tied teams will determine the divisional champion.


The site of the American Athletic Conference Football Championship will be the home venue of the divisional champion with the best record in conference games. If the two divisional champions have the same conference record, then the regular-season head-to-head winner between the divisional champions would host the championship.


It’s safe to day that the league that was once known as the Big East Conference from 1979 through 2013 has taken on its own identity.


Sweet 16


After landing five AAC teams the Top 16 teams nationally in rush defense in 2013, UCF (6), Louisville (10) and East Carolina (11) managed to secured spots in the Top 16 last season.


In addition, Temple (4) UCF (9), Memphis (11) and Houston (15) ranked in the Top 16 in overall scoring defense in 2014.


Anchors Aweigh


After spending 135 years as an independent, Navy joins the American Athletic Conference this season.
The move leaves Notre Dame standing as the only FBS program that has remained conference-free throughout its football history. The Irish earn the distinction due to Army’s seven-year fling with Conference USA, an affair that lasted from 1998-2004.


The good news is Navy’s three long-standing rivalries - namely Air Force, Army and Notre Dame - stay in tact despite the move into the AAC.


As a result of the move Navy will tackle only one Power-Five school in 2015 (Notre Dame). They had averaged 3.7 regular season games versus teams who are current Power-Five members. The Middies are 16-28 SU versus current Power-Five squads since 2005.


Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


CINCINNATI (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 5/1)


TEAM THEME: I’M COMING HOME
How badly injured was this team last season? For openers, they started nine different OL in 2014. Three backs they heavily counted on, including 2013’s leading rusher, played a combined total of nine games. But through it all, they managed to win nine games for the fourth consecutive year, the last three under Tommy Tuberville. So why is it the Bearcats are bursting at the seams in 2015? For openers, a loaded backfield, along with the return of QB Gunner Keil and each of his top seven receivers, figures to ignite an offense that won its last seven games of the season. Should they patch a defense that literally imploded, these Cats could be lethal.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bearcats return to $86 million-renovated Nippert Stadium, recently voted College Football’s Best Stadium, in 2015.


CONNECTICUT (Offense - 6/2, Defense - 8/3)


TEAM THEME: GREEN EGGS
It was a rough first year for Bob Diaco last season. Mighty rough. Ten losses, including the only two times his team was favored (Army and SMU!), were hard to swallow. As was losing half those games by 17 or more points. Signing only 16 recruits last year – and being forced to play nine of them as true freshmen – took its toll. Yet the hire of Diaco, a Frank Broyles Award winner as the nation’s top assistant coach (2012 with Notre Dame), was a good one. Thirty-five year veteran Frank Verducci, with stops at Iowa, the Buffalo Bills and the Montreal Alouettes, comes aboard as the new OC and should work well with all the pimply faces.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Huskies owned the nation’s worst red-zone defense (.583) last season.


EAST CAROLINA (Offense - 6/4, Defense - 5/1)


TEAM THEME: RUFF AND READY
Like in 2012 when we predicted Ruffin McNeil’s 10-win breakout season on these pages, we see signs of the same in 2015. It all starts with a squad that returns a whopping 61 lettermen from a team that won six of its first seven games before hitting a second-half wall. It also doesn’t hurt that the Pirates have posted a 74-39 (.655) all-time mark against current members of the American Conference, with only USF holding a winning record against them. Granted, ECU will have big shoes to fill with the loss of school record-setter QB Shane Carden, but our infatuation with highly experienced teams who improved on both sides of the ball last year wins out.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: McNeill is 30-8 SU and 21-13-1 ATS vs. losing teams, and 6-17 SU and ATS vs. winning teams.


HOUSTON (Offense - *6/3, Defense - 8/2)


TEAM THEME: HERMAN’S HERMITS
A new era in Houston Football kicks off in 2015 when former Ohio State OC Tom Herman and nine new assistants take command of the Cougar program. Herman went to work immediately when he inked 21 recruits. "The selling point now is that I've been to the mountaintop and I've seen how the ultimate prize is won. There's no reason we can't be the non-Power-Five team that everybody talks about every year,” said Herman. QB Greg Ward Jr., who started the final eight games in 2014, and the top three rushers from last season are back. Meanwhile, 50 upper classmen dot the roster in 2015. Something tells us they’re into something good.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: From 2006-13, the Cougars owned the top spot in college football as the nation’s offensive yards leader (53,780… 1,458 more than Oregon).


MEMPHIS (Offense - *9/4, Defense - 3/2)


TEAM THEME: EN FUEGO
Inheriting a 2-win squad in 2012, promising young coach Justin Fuente molded this starving program into a 10-win conference champion squad last season, making Memphis the fourth-most improved team in 2014. That’s impressive considering underclassmen made 433 starts last season, most in the AAC. QB Paxton Lynch returns along with nearly a full array of receivers but last year’s improved defense is gutted, losing its top five tacklers and three starters from the secondary. Fortunately, the Tigers will face the nation’s seventh-softest schedule in 2015, with foes a collective 65-85. The big question is how will the red-hot Tigers react on the heels of a 10-win season after five consecutive losing efforts?


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Memphis is 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS under Fuente versus a foe off a double-digit loss.


NAVY (Offense - *5/2, Defense - 6/2)


TEAM THEME: HISTORY IN THE MAKING
It’s an exciting year for Navy as they find themselves entering an affiliated conference for the first time in school history. And speaking of history, HC Ken Niumatalolo has re-written the history books at the Naval Academy. He’s the program’s all-time winningest coach – one of 12 active coaches that own that distinction at their respective schools. Going back further, since 2003 Navy owns more wins over teams from ‘Power Five’ conferences (21) than anyone in the nation. And speaking of making history, QB Keenan Reynolds (21-11) needs 14 rushing TDs to eclipse the all-time mark of 77 set by Montee Ball (Wisconsin). Don’t bet against him.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Navy has won 13 games in a row against Army, the longest streak in series history, outscoring the Black Knights, 417-142.


SMU (Offense - *9/5, Defense - 7/2)


TEAM THEME: JUNE BUGGED
After losing 45-0 to Baylor and 43-6 to a downtrodden North Texas squad in the first two weeks last year, June Jones had seen enough, bolting just nine days into the 2014 season. Enter highly lauded Chad Morris, a former Texas high school head coach and most recent OC at Clemson. "I don't want to sound ugly when I say this, but these kids have been told all year long they're 1-11, they're no good,” said Morris. “Remember, the windshield is a lot bigger than your rear view mirror. It's more important where you're going than where you came from," he insists. The Pony Express may not be in town but at least new wipers came with this oil change.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Mustangs’ projected offensive line for 2015 has made a total of 99 career starts.


TEMPLE (Offense - *8/4 , Defense - 11/4)


TEAM THEME: SPOTTED OWL
The Owls came this close to going bowlng in Matt Rhule’s third year at the helm last season. It was, afterall, a year for the ages for Temple. It started with a win over an SEC opponent (Vanderbilit) for the first time in 75 years. They later picked up a win over a ranked opponent (East Carolina) for the first time in 16 years. And they did it with the youngest team in the nation with only eight seniors on the roster. To top it off, all 11 starters are back from a stop-unit that ranked in the top 25 in the country in most defensive categories in the NCAA. Beware of the Owl… this team is loaded.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Owls were the worst team in the nation in 3rd down conversion percentage (.235) last season.


TULANE (Offense - *9/4, Defense - 7/2)


TEAM THEME: BOUNCE HOUSE
In horse racing parlance, the Green Wave ‘bounced’ last year. After going 2-10 in Curtis Johnson’s first year with Tulane in 2012, his squad engineered one of the biggest turnarounds in college football in 2013, going 7-6 overall, recording the most wins since 2002. But it was back to reality in 2014 when a 3-9 effort fell far short of expectations – despite fielding a team that finished second in the nation in red-zone defense (.635). This year’s squad features a whopping 54 sophomores and juniors, with only 13 freshmen and 13 seniors dotting the roster... meaning CJ finally has most of his players in the house.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Green Wave feature four offensive linemen that have made a combined 57 career starts.


TULSA (Offense - *10/4, Defense - 6/3)


TEAM THEME: HURRICANE WARNING
After wallowing in losing waters each of the last two years, the Golden Hurricane sent fifth-year HC Bill Blankenship packing, opting instead for Baylor OC Phil Montgomery to pump new life tutored air-attacking QBs such as Bryce Petty, Robert Griffin III, Kevin Kolb and Case Keenum – so we know what’s coming. He inherits a young but experienced roster filled with 29 players who started at least one game iin 2014, including JR QB Dave Evans who tossed for 3,102 yards in 2014 and top WR Keevan Lucas (101 receptions and 1,219 yards last year). Fasten your seat belts.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Tulsa tied for 5th with Northern Illinois playing the most underclassmen (73) last season.


UCF (Offense - *6/4, Defense - 4/1)


TEAM THEME: GOOD KNIGHTS
After shocking Baylor as 17-point dogs in the Fiesta Bowl and finishing 12-1 to conclude the 2013 season, taking a step backwards was inevitable last year. And so it was when UCF lost QB Blake Bortles and 1,100-yard rusher Storm Johnson, among others, from what was their best offense ever. The result was a loss of 7 points and 78 yards per game. It’s now 2015 and a bounce-back is in order. Consider: under George O’Leary, the Knights have gone 8-5, 10-4, 8-5 and 10-4 straight-up, and 32-20-1 ATS combined, the following season after regressing the previous campaign. While short on returning starters, expect a defense that improved 64 YPG in 2014 to shoulder the load in 2015.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Knights are 34-16 ‘In The Stats’ the last four seasons.


USF (Offense - *6/2, Defense - 7/1)


TEAM THEME: TAGGING UP
Head coach Willie Taggart was once again hard at work when he inked the best recruiting class in the American Athletic Association for the second straight year, as he has landed a total of twenty 3-star players to go with a pair of 4-star recruits in his three years with the Bulls. In addition, former Arizona and Hawaii head coach Dick Tomey has joined the school overseeing the football program, while former Purdue head coach Danny Hope was hired on as a co-offensive coordinator. Meanwhile, every running back returns, including 1,000-yard workhorse Marlon Mack. And the top five tacklers return on defense. Suddenly things are looking up at USF these days.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Taggart is 22-5-1 ATS in away games in his career.

 

[CNOTES]

Hot Seat Coaches


June 3, 2015


At this time last year, former Florida coach Will Muschamp was the poster boy for coaches on the hot seat. After coming up just one game shy of a trip to the BCS Championship Game in 2012, the Gators were an atrocious 4-8 in 2013, including an unfathomable home loss to Georgia Southern.


Muschamp's fortunes at UF unraveled with back-to-back home losses to LSU and Missouri. With his future on life support, however, the Gators smashed Georgia by a 38-20 count and a win-out scenario appeared plausible. After thumping Vanderbilt in Nashville, UF returned home to face South Carolina.


A Treon Harris touchdown run would've put the game on ice with more than two minutes to play, but it was called back for a holding penalty. Moments later, a short field goal would've given UF a 10-point cushion, but it was blocked. Nevertheless, the Gators got a stop and were nursing the final seconds off the clock in the final minute.


With the Gamecocks out of timeouts and less than 30 seconds remaining, UF set up to punt around midfield. But with the sort of awful luck that seemed to engulf Muschamp's tenure throughout his four years, the punt was blocked and South Carolina forced overtime on a TD run with just a few ticks left. When the Gamecocks miraculously won in OT, Muschamp was canned less than 24 hours later.


Al Golden takes our title for Hot Seat Poster Boy going into the 2015 campaign. Sure, we could probably find coaches with less room for error, but we aren't too interested in hitting on the likes of FIU's Ron Turner, Hawaii's Norm Chow, Georgia State's Trent Miles, New Mexico State's Doug Martin or Idaho's Paul Petrino. We'll stick with the jobs that have more relevance and ones that are more likely to play a role in your weekly wagers.


1: Al Golden (Miami) - The Al Golden Era in Coral Gables got off to an inauspicious start by no fault of his own. Before he had ever coached a game for the Hurricanes, the school found itself under the national spotlight for NCAA violations committed by convicted Ponzi schemer and low-life jock sniffer Nevin Shapiro, who bitterly outlined for Yahoo Sports a decade run of violations he committed with proof galore in the form of pictures, receipts and more. Due to the utter ineptitude of the NCAA investigation, the 'Canes ended up getting off easy but they held themselves out of bowl games (while the investigation was still going) in 2011 and 2012, giving up a berth in the ACC Championship Game during Golden's second season.


Therefore, it's fair to say Golden got a raw deal and was blindsided by the mess he was left to clean up. And sure, you could make a solid case that the Shapiro scandal had a negative impact on his ability to recruit. At this point, however, those excuses aren't flying in South Florida anymore and it's time to produce.


Golden owns a 28-22 record in four seasons, going 16-16 against a mediocre set of ACC opponents. He is 0-2 in a pair of unattractive bowl games, including a 36-9 blowout loss to Louisville two seasons ago. The 'Canes went 6-7 last year with five losses by double-digit margins, and they ended the year on a four-game losing streak after falling to South Carolina in the Independence Bowl.


According to Phil Steele, UM returns five starters on offense and six on defense. According to Lindy's Magazine, the 'Canes landed only one of the nation's Top 100 recruits (No. 83 RB Mark Walton) in their 2015 class even though five Top-100 players hailed from Dade or Broward County. Furthermore, Athlon Magazine has UM with only three of the ACC's Top 40 recruits for the 2015 class. Athlon has Walton ranked No. 13 among ACC recruits, in addition to DB Jacquan Johnson (No. 31) and OL Bar Milo (No. 34). In comparison, UNC and N.C. St. had four of the ACC's Top 40 apiece.


I would think Golden needs to go at least 8-4 this year and even that ledger might leave him needing to win the bowl game. Golden had better go 9-3 to feel good about being retained. Fannies in the seats, especially for home games against Nebraska, Virginia Tech and Clemson, could also factor into making or breaking Golden's fate.


2: Tim Beckman (Illinois) - This was a shaky hire from the start. Beckman didn't earn any fans by instantly bringing his staff to Penn State's campus in an attempt to try to poach players after the NCAA levied the school with the harshest penalties ever seen outside of SMU's death penalty.


His tenure began with a 2-10 season after Ron Zook had won seven games in each of the two previous years. The victories came over Western Michigan and Charleston Southern.


In 2013, Beckman doubled the win total of the previous campaign but, again, the wins weren't exactly noteworthy. The Illini bested Southern Illinois (in a one-possession game), Cincinnati, Miami (OH) and Purdue (which went 1-11 with its lone triumph coming by a 20-14 score over Indiana State).


Beckman's third season in Champaign-Urbana resulted in a bowl-game appearance, but any momentum going into the offseason was demolished by Louisiana Tech in a 35-18 loss at the Heart of Dallas Bowl. Illinois finished 6-7 with all seven setbacks coming by double-digit margins, including five losses by 16 points or more.


Perhaps most telling, Memorial Stadium seats more than 60,000 fans. However, the biggest crowd during Beckman's tenure was 47,981 for a homecoming game (and 31-17 loss) against Indiana in 2012. The biggest crowd last season was 44,437 vs. Minnesota.


Illinois brings back seven starters on offense and defense (14 overall). Anything shy of a 7-5 regular season will likely result in a trip out of town for Beckman.


3: Mike London (Virginia) - London enters his sixth season at UVA with a 23-38 overall record and an 11-29 mark in ACC action. The high point of his tenure was his second year in 2011 when the Cavaliers finished 8-5 and went to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. They haven't been bowling since.


London saved his job -- at least for the time being -- by leading Virginia to a 4-2 start last season. There was no shame in either defeat, as the Cavs dropped one-possession games to ranked opponents (vs. UCLA and at BYU). But they would drop five of their next six games to finish 5-7.


London was given the benefit of the doubt, thanks in part to some heartbreaking losses. UVA lost by one vs. UNC, by seven at Duke and by four at Virginia Tech. The Cavs spanked Miami by a 30-13 count to get to 5-6, only to come up short in their quest for a bowl bid in Blacksburg.


London has to take UVA to the postseason this year, but the non-conference slate won't help matters. The Cavs open at UCLA and host Notre Dame and Boise State. All three foes figure to be ranked.


4: Willie Taggart (South Florida) - I thought USF made excellent choices in hiring Skip Holtz and Taggart, but the school hasn't had a winning season since firing the program's creator in Jim Leavitt. Taggart is quite the character, often channeling his inner 'Nature Boy' (Ric Flair) in dead-on imitations during interviews on The Tim Brando Show.


Taggart had a nice run at Western Kentucky before coming to Tampa. He compiled an 18-7 spread record in his last two years with the Hilltoppers.


But that success hasn't translated at USF. Taggart is 6-18 through two seasons that have featured absolutely inept offense. The Bulls have averaged 13.8 and 17.2 points per game in 2013 and '14.


A bowl bid and more points will be needed for Taggart to see a fourth season at USF.


5: Paul Rhoads (Iowa State) - First of all, this is a tough job. Secondly, Rhoads has dropped a ton of heartbreakers during his six years in Ames.


He took the Cyclones to three bowl games in his first four years, but they have only won five games the last two seasons. During those two campaigns, Iowa State has lost eight one-possession games.


I like Rhoads, a fiery competitor who is always entertaining at his pressers. In 2011, he led his team to a 41-7 win at 19th-ranked Texas Tech as a 14-point underdog. Less than three weeks later on a Thursday night in Ames, his Cyclones shook up the national-title picture with a 37-31 win over unbeaten and second-ranked Oklahoma State in double overtime.


Nevertheless, Rhoads probably needs to get ISU to a bowl game in 2015 to retain his job.


**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**


-- Others that just missed the cut: UNC's Larry Fedora, Purdue's Darrell Hazel and Iowa's Kirk Ferentz.


--Ferentz is such an interesting case. He deservedly landed a monster contract after posting his fourth double-digit win season in 2009. At that time and on a few other occasions since, his name has popped up as a candidate at the NFL level. But the results just haven't been there recently. In fact, the Hawkeyes had an unfathomably easy schedule last year, but they couldn't beat a two-win Iowa State team at home. In addition, they let a lead get away at Maryland, got smashed at Minnesota and dropped another nail-biter to Wisconsin. His buyout is $13 million, so it's hard to imagine the school taking that sort of financial hit. However, if the Hawks don't go bowling this season, it's not out of the question.


-- LSU's Les Miles and Georgia's Mark Richt have had long and successful tenures at their respective schools. Nevertheless, I always think of these two as one disappointing year away from possibly taking a pink slip.


-- Why does Indiana coach Kevin Wilson's name pop up on the list of a hot-seat coaches in nearly every publication you read? I don't get it at all. The program has been to one bowl game since 1993. He has brought an entertaining high-octane offense to Bloomington, nearly getting to a bowl game in 2013. The Hoosiers saw their season go south in 2014 because of injuries at the QB position. I say give Wilson some time.

 

[CNOTES]

Handicapping GOY Odds


5Dimes.eu has posted lines for 20 Games of the Year and will be following up with a slew of others in the near future.


Let's take a look at some of the key ones that are already up on the board.


We start with a Week 2 showdown in East Lansing, where Michigan State will be in a revenge spot against Oregon. The offshore shop has tabbed the Spartans as three-point home favorites.


Mark Dantonio's team went into Eugene last year and had a nine-point lead midway through the third quarter. However, the Ducks rallied and then some to not only capture the win but also cover the double-digit number.


Connor Cook returns at QB for the Spartans, who bring back six starters on offense and seven on defense. Meanwhile, the Ducks have to replace Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota, but they return weapons galore like RB Royce Freeman and versatile playmaker Byron Marshall. Eastern Washington transfer Vernon Adams is the favorite to win the QB job and he's a total stud.


In Week 3, Alabama is a 12-point home favorite vs. Ole Miss in a major revenge spot. The Rebels rallied in the fourth quarter to clip the Tide in Oxford last season, 23-17. The victory ended a 10-game winning streak 'Bama had over Hugh Freeze's program. Freeze is 2-1 ATS in three career games against Nick Saban's bunch.


Also in Week 3, LSU is a one-point home 'chalk' vs. Auburn. The Bayou Bengals will be looking to avenge a 41-7 loss to the War Eagles on The Plains from last year.


Moving ahead to Oct. 3, let's look at a crucial SEC showdown as Georgia hosts Alabama between the hedges in Athens. 5Dimes.eu has the Crimson Tide installed as a one-point road 'chalk.'


Both teams play cupcake non-conference foes the previous week, so there's no situational advantage for either squad. This will be the first meeting between these schools since Alabama beat UGA by a 32-28 count at the 2012 SEC Championship Game. This epic contest was shamefully scarred by Mark Richt's incompetent decision not to spike the ball with 15 seconds remaining after a big pass from Aaron Murray set the Dawgs up in the red zone.


The Red River Rivalry will resume the following week (10/10) with Oklahoma taking on Texas. 5Dimes.eu currently has the Sooners favored by five (all of these game have double juice of -120 both ways).


OU has won four of the last five head-to-head meetings, but it failed to cover the number in last year's 31-26 victory.


On Oct. 17, Dantonio will square off against new Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh for the first time. 5Dimes.eu has the Spartans as 3.5-point road favorites. The Wolverines have lost six of the last seven to Michigan St. in this rivalry, including a 35-11 setback in East Lansing last year.


In a Week 9 game on a Thursday night, Arizona State will welcome Oregon to Tempe. 5Dimes.eu has the Ducks favored by 1.5 points. The Sun Devils haven't played Oregon since 2012 and will be trying to break an eight-game losing streak in the series.


In Week 10 and 11, Alabama faces a pair of tough division contests. The Tide is a 9.5-point home favorite vs. LSU and is then favored by four at Mississippi State seven days later. On May 26, 5Dimes had 'Bama at -3 vs. the Bulldogs. I immediately tweeted that it was a bad number that should be at least six. Twenty-four hours later, the offshore book had moved the number to four and you can expect a further adjustment soon.


On Saturday Nov. 21, there are four games on the board:


Ohio State -5.5 vs. Michigan State
TCU -1 at Oklahoma
Oregon -5 vs. USC
le Miss -5 vs. LSU


On Friday of Rivalry Week (11/27), TCU is a 5.5-point home 'chalk' vs. Baylor. The Bears handed the Horned Frogs their only loss of 2014 by rallying from a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit in Waco.


On Saturday Nov. 28, the spreads for rivalry games include:


Florida State -2 at Florida
Ohio State -9.5 at Michigan
USC -3 vs. UCLA
Alabama -2 at Auburn
Mississippi St. -2.5 vs. Ole Miss

 

[CNOTES]

Wildcats in good shape under Rich-Rod


June 5, 2015


TUCSON, Ariz. (AP) - Arizona's players were not ready for their first offseason under Rich Rodriguez. Not even close.


Out of shape and out of their element with the then-new coach's go-all-the-time style, the Wildcats were more concerned about catching their breath than trying to learn plays.


''The first practice we had the first spring, our guys were done by the midway point,'' Rodriguez said. ''We didn't have enough energy to go over and get Popsicles at the break.''


Three years later, things have changed dramatically.


The players are in much better condition. They know Rodriguez's system, what the coaches expect from them. They're confident after one of the best seasons in program history.


So instead of a spring cleaning, the Wildcats had a clean spring, able to focus on getting better on the field, not in better shape.


''I thought we made a lot of progress,'' Rodriguez said.


Rodriguez and the Wildcats have been building since he arrived in 2012.


Arizona won eight games and a bowl in each of his first two seasons, then took a big step last season.


Led by prolific quarterback Anu Solomon on offense and high-motor linebacker Scooby Wright on defense, the Wildcats won the Pac-12 South Division and went on to play in their first upper-tier bowl since 1994. Arizona lost to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl, but still finished with a 10-win season for the second time in program history.


The Wildcats are 26-14 under Rodriguez, the best three-year run in Tucson since Jim Young led Arizona to 26 wins from 1973-75, and hope to continue on the upswing.


''I don't know if culture is the right word, but the atmosphere where we wanted the program to be is right where we want it to be,'' Rodriguez said. ''I think our guys expect to win more, they expect to compete for championships and that's going to be the standard for every year from here on out.''


The Wildcats are in good position to keep it going.


Arizona has loads of skill players coming back on offense for the 2015 season, including Solomon, running back Nick Wilson and what will likely be one of the best receiving corps in the nation. The Wildcats have some questions on the offensive line after losing three starters, but there are some quality replacements ready to move into bigger roles.


Defensively, Arizona still has Wright, a first-team All-American who won the Bednarik, Nagurski and Lombardi awards, and some good players up front, but will have to replace three key players in the secondary.


Rodriguez also has continued to show off his recruiting chops, bringing in another solid class this year.


''I'm worried about where we're at, that we're getting better every year,'' Rodriguez said. ''And we've got to get better because the people we're playing aren't going backward. Our league is probably as good as it's been and is probably going to keep getting better.''


The Wildcats got off to a good start during spring practice and now need to keep it going during summer workouts.


Most of Arizona's players are already back on campus to take a few classes and work out in preparation for preseason camp in early August.


Rodriguez has been pleased with the way the leaders on the team have taken charge of the offseason workouts.


''If guy who are coming back are as good as they were last year, we're not going to be any better,'' Rodriguez said. ''The key is that the guys coming back are better than they were the year before.''

 

[CNOTES]

Golson heads to FSU


May 19, 2015


Everett Golson announced Tuesday that he'll transfer to Florida State, where the former Notre Dame quarterback will be eligible to play immediately. Golson also considered Florida and Georgia after officially deciding to leave Brian Kelly's program on May 7.


FSU had 30/1 odds to win the College Football Playoff, but the Westgate SuperBook has adjusted that number to 15/1 following the news of Golson's pending arrival.


As a redshirt freshman in 2012, Golson helped the Fighting Irish to an unbeaten regular season and a spot in the BCS Championship Game against Alabama. He had a 12/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio and rushed for six TDs.


Golson was suspended for the 2013 campaign for a violation of the school's honor-code policy. He returned last season and led Notre Dame to a 6-0 record while throwing 16 TD passes compared to only four interceptions.


However, the Irish lost five of the last six regular-season games while Golson was intercepted nine times. He began to split time with Malik Zaire in the regular-season finale, and then Zaire got more snaps and played well in a 31-28 upset win over LSU at the Music City Bowl.


With his starting status in major limbo at Notre Dame, Golson decided to look at this options and settled on FSU. Jimbo Fisher says Golson will compete with Sean Maguire for the starting job.


Maguire has only one career start under his belt. When Jameis Winston was suspended for the Clemson game last year, Maguire completed 21-of-39 passes for 304 yards and one TD, but he was intercepted twice. The 'Noles rallied late in regulation to force overtime and won by a 23-17 count at home.


Maguire wasn't sharp in the spring game. Nevertheless, he was considered the clear-cut starter because no other FSU QBs have taken a snap since high school.


Golson fell out of favor with Kelly because he committed too many turnovers in 2014. In addition to 14 interceptions last season, Golson has fumbled 20 times in 25 career starts.


Golson won't have much time to learn Fisher's pro-style offense. He'll also face the challenge of meshing with his new teammates in a short period of time. The QB battle could last into September with the 'Noles starting the season with home games vs. Texas State and South Florida. They'll get their first tough test in Week 3 at Boston College.


There have been many examples of QBs transferring to a new school in recent seasons. The results have been a mixed bag. Russell Wilson thrived at Wisconsin, while Clint Trickett and Tyler Murphy enjoyed success at West Virginia and Boston College, respectively. The results have not been good for players like Jake Heaps, Jacob Coker and Michael Brewer.


Golson will have talent galore around him, so he won't need to be a star. He will have to take better care of the football, however, if he wants his one-year stint in Tallahassee to be an enjoyable one.

 

[CNOTES]

Comeback for Vols and Hogs?


June 10, 2015


Tennessee and Arkansas have had proud football programs for decades, but both have endured struggles galore in recent years. However, optimism is high going into the 2015 campaign. In fact, these two schools took more momentum into the offseason than any other SEC squads following strong 2014 finishes.


Can the Razorbacks and Volunteers pick up where they left off? Are they really improved enough to contend in their respective divisions? Will either get to Atlanta?


These are the burning questions in Fayetteville and Knoxville in June of 2015. Let's see if we can provide some answers.


Since 2008, Tennessee owns a deplorable 40-47 record. To give you an idea of how unacceptable that ledger is in the Volunteer State, consider that the Vols went 147-45 under Philip Fulmer from 1992-2007 (*those numbers omit a 5-7 record under Fulmer in '08).


When Fulmer was under heavy scrutiny late in his wildly-successful tenure, I lived in Atlanta and shared cold beers with quite a few UT alums regularly. I consistently warned them, "Be careful what you wish for." I just never understood the lack of satisfaction in what Fulmer had accomplished, including six SEC East titles, two SEC championships and one national title.


If the UT faithful were tired of the results on Fulmer's watch back in 2008, can you imagine the unrest after the 2012 season? After three straight losing seasons under Derek Dooley, Tennessee was again striking out left to right in attempts to hire a new coach.


Before settling on Dooley, the school went through the shame of being denied by the coaches at Air Force (Troy Calhoun) and Duke (David Cutcliffe). After taking Heisman treatment again from the likes of Mike Gundy, Al Golden and others, Tennessee finally hired Butch Jones away from Cincinnati.


Jones hasn't set the world on fire, going 5-7 and 7-6 in his first two seasons. Critics can justifiably question him for his reluctance to turn to Josh Dobbs until falling behind big in the eighth game last season.


With that said, Jones has killed it on the recruiting trail. Dobbs went 4-1 in his five starts to close last year, sparking the offense to three outbursts of 45 points or more.


Based on that 4-1 finish, including a 45-28 win over Iowa in the postseason, many feel the Vols are ready to contend in what appears to be a wide-open SEC East. Georgia looks like the team with the most talent in the East, but it will be breaking in a new quarterback and has to play in Knoxville.


UT's season win total is 7.5 at 5Dimes, shaded to the 'over' for a -140 price ('under' bets are an even-money wager). I think that's the perfect number.


I have Tennessee as a double-digit favorite in five games -- vs. Bowling Green (in Nashville), vs. Western Carolina, at Kentucky, vs. North Texas and vs. Vandy. I have the Vols as seven-point home 'chalk' vs. South Carolina.


So that's six wins that I'm confident UT will be able to get (though I'll concede my mind could certainly change about the South Carolina game if Steve Spurrier finds a quality QB). I'm also confident in one loss at Alabama (I have the Tide -14 at this point.).


Therefore, we're left with the Vols at 6-1 with five games having tight lines. For now (again, we're in June and I have a lot of uncertainty about teams like UGA and Florida due to questions at the QB position), these are the numbers I have for the Vols in those five games: -3 vs. Oklahoma, +1.5 at Florida, -1.5 vs. Arkansas, pick 'em vs. Georgia and +4 at Missouri.


For season win totals, I have to have a confidence level of 1.5 games to make a play. Therefore, I have to be confident UT will go 9-3 in order to play the 'over,' especially if laying a -140 price. On the flip side, I would have to be bullish on UT to go 6-6 or worse to back the 'under.'


Remember, Tennessee has lost 10 in a row to Florida. Therefore, if it can win at The Swamp, you have to think the Arkansas game will qualify as a letdown scenario for the Vols despite the fact they will be at Neyland Stadium when the Hogs come calling.


Can I see Tennessee going 9-3? Sure. If Dobbs stays healthy, he could be the difference in the five games that I think will be tight. He has an excellent set of wide receivers, including veterans Marquez North and Pig Howard. Jones has an outstanding set of running backs with Jalen Hurd (899 rushing yards as a true freshman) and Alvin Kamara, a juco All-American last year who has blazing speed and originally signed with Alabama out of high school.


But the offensive line, one that yielded an SEC-worst 43 sacks last season, could be an issue. However, Dobbs' mobility may be able to mask potential problems up front.


UT's win total is a pass for me. I think the most likely finish for the Vols is 8-4 but again, that's not enough for me to take the 'over,' especially at -140.


Before shifting gears to the Razorbacks, let's point out a few more gambling numbers for UT. The Vols have 9/1 odds to win the SEC and they're 68/1 to win the College Football Playoff. Dobbs has 55/1 odds to win the Heisman, while Hurd's number is 66/1.


Arkansas' struggles haven't been as prolonged as UT's, but its fans had been given so much hope during Bobby Petrino's tenure. When that debacle unfolded, the entire state was rocked to its core. The season under John L. Smith was an unmitigated disaster and the wait for a new coach was an agonizing one.


Arkansas AD Jeff Long made it known right away that he wasn't messing around with his search for a new coach following the 2012 catastrophe. He came out guns blazing, offering LSU's Les Miles a monster contract to leave the Tigers for the Ozarks. Although he failed, people took note of the cash Long was bringing to the table.


Whether discussions got down to offers with the following coaches is unknown, but Long showed interest in the likes of Chris Petersen (then at Boise State), Gundy, James Franklin (then at Vandy) and TCU's Gary Patterson. Just when it seemed that Long had run out of quality options, he went outside the box. Hell, he went above the Mason-Dixon line and into Big Ten country.


That's where he found Wisconsin's Bret Bielema, who had taken the Badgers to three straight Big Ten championship games. He inherited a mess and it showed in Year 1 when the Razorbacks limped to a 3-9 record and went winless in SEC play.


But 2014 was a different story. QB Brandon Allen was no longer plagued by a shoulder injury that bothered him throughout the 2013 campaign after injuring it in mid-September. Allen threw 20 touchdown passes and most importantly, was intercepted only five times.


The offensive line was vastly improved, paving holes for a pair of workhorse RBs in Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins, both of whom rushed for more than 1,000 yards. Allen and both RBs return in 2015 and they'll operate behind one of the SEC's best offensive lines. Allen also has the best tight end in the SEC (Hunter Henry).


Looking back at 2014, the Hogs' 7-6 record doesn't truly indicate how good they were. They had two bad halves -- the second half at Auburn and the first half vs. Georgia. Arkansas went into intermission on The Plains tied at 21-21, only to get outscored 24-0 by AU in the second half. UGA raced out to a huge lead in the first half at Arkansas and hung on for a 45-32 triumph.


Outside of those two games, Bielema's team had great opportunities to win the rest. Arkansas had a double-digit lead over Texas A&M in the second half in Arlington, but the Aggies rallied to force overtime and won by a 35-28 count.


The Hogs missed an extra point in a 14-13 home loss to Alabama. They had the lead deep into the second half in Starkville before falling 17-10 to Mississippi State. After dealing out cream-cheese treatment to LSU (17-0) and Ole Miss (30-0) in back-to-back games, Bielema's bunch led at Missouri nearly the entire game before dropping a 21-14 decision.


To cap the nice bounce-back year (albeit one that could've easily been much better), Arkansas blasted former Southwest Conference rival Texas 31-7 at the Texas Bowl. At that point, there wasn't a sharp handicapper on the planet that didn't have the Hogs in the Top 20 of their Power Rankings.


With eight starters back on offense and six on defense, Arkansas is hoping 2015 will be its breakout campaign. Compared to Tennessee, however, the task will be tougher in the brutal West.


Arkansas has 12/1 odds to win the SEC, 47/1 odds to win the CFP. The Hogs have a win total of 8.5 ('under' -160, 'over' +120).


I have Arkansas as a double-digit favorite against five opponents: vs. UTEP, vs. Toledo, vs. Texas Tech, vs. UT-Martin and vs. Mississippi State (-11). I also have the Hogs as 6.5-point home 'chalk' vs. Missouri. Just like UT, the only significant underdog situation (+13) will be at Alabama. Therefore, I'm confident in six wins and one loss.


That leaves five games that will determine whether or not the Razorbacks go 'over' or 'under' their win total. For those contests, I have the following lines (for now): -3.5 vs. Texas A&M, +1.5 at UT, pick 'em vs. Auburn, -2 at Ole Miss and +3.5 at LSU.


Arkansas gets an open date before hosting Auburn, but the Tigers will also get some extra rest prior to their trip to Fayetteville since they play at Kentucky on a Thursday the previous week.


The Hogs have a situational advantage for their game at Ole Miss. While Bielema's squad gets a cupcake in UT-Martin at home a week before going to Oxford, the Rebels will be in a slugfest at Auburn.


When Arky faces LSU and Mississippi State, the Tigers and Bulldogs will be coming off games against Alabama. Although we don't see the Hogs winning in Tuscaloosa, we'll note that the Tide plays at Georgia a week before hosting the Razorbacks.


If there's a weakness for Arkansas on offense, it's the lack of a big-play WR that can stretch the field. Bielema is hoping to fill that void with juco transfer Dominique Reed, who chose the Hogs over Texas.


The defense lost several key parts, including perennial All-SEC defensive end Trey Flowers. But six starters are back from a unit that held eight foes to 17 points or fewer.


I have to pass on Arky's win total. Whether the Hogs prove to be a legit SEC West contender in 2015 remains to be seen, but they should be much better. If the bounces, breaks and close games go their way unlike last season, they'll be in the upper tier of the division.


A trip to the Georgia Dome in Atlanta for the first weekend of September is probably a slight reach in Year 3 of Bielema's tenure, but there's no question that Long made a gem of a hire, one that has the Hogs on the right path and out of the ditch where Petrino's motorcycle landed.

 

[CNOTES]

2015 ACC Preview


June 10, 2015


AAC · ACC2015 Atlantic Coast Conference Football Preview


Simply The Best


With 42 ACC players chosen in the 2014 NFL Draft and 47 players selected in the 2015 Draft (including 20 in the first three rounds), the ACC extended its streak to 11 consecutive seasons with 31 or more players selected.


Florida State (11) and Louisville (10) lead all schools nationally this season. It marked the second-straight season the Seminoles sent 11 players off to the NFL.


The ACC Had nine players selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, its second highest total in history and tied with the Pac-12 for the most first round selections in this year’s Draft. The SEC was next (7) followed by the Big Ten (3), the Big 12 (2) and the American (2).


Miami (41 straight years), Virginia (32 straight years) and Florida State (32 straight years) continued long streaks of having a player chosen in each NFL Draft.


Bowl Me Over


ACC has the best record in New Year’s Six and BCS Bowls Over the last three years. In addition, the Atlantic Coast Conference owns the best record among the Power Five Conferences in the New Year’s Six Bowls and College Football Playoff Games (formerly the BCS) since 2012.


During that time, ACC teams have posted a 4-1 record, with the only loss being Florida State’s against Oregon in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. The Big Ten is next (4-2), followed by the Pac-12 (3- 3), the Big 12 (2-3) and the SEC (1-6).


In addition the ACC became the first conference to send 11 teams to Bowl Games in back-to-back years – last year and in 2013. The two-year total of 22 bowl teams tied the SEC for most in back-to-back years. The SEC sent a record 12 teams to bowl games this past year.


We Won’t Back Down


The ACC will face the highest 2014 Opponent Winning Percentage of Any Power-Five Conference in 2015.


ACC teams will face FBS non-conference opponents that had a combined winning percentage of .536 in FBS games in 2014--the highest of any of the Power Five Conferences.


Additionally, ACC teams are set to face a higher percentage of games with Power-Five schools (38%).


Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


BOSTON COLLEGE (Offense– 3/0, Defense - 6/2, 37 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: RUNNING ON EMPTY Boston College is one of only three schools nationally that finished in the top 15 in the nation in both rushing offense and rushing defense last season, joined by Oklahoma and Toledo. You can kiss that distinction goodbye this year, though, as the Eagles lost record-setting QB Tyler Murphy and all five of his OL. They also lose 3 of their 4 starting DB’s from the nation’s 11th ranked defense last year. So where does Seve Addazio turn to in 2015? After all his Eagle teams have featured powerful ground attacks behind the nation’s leading rusher with Doak Walker award-winner Andre Willams in 2013, and the nation’s leading rushing quarterback in Murphy in 2014. Stay tuned.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Four of the Eagles’ six losses in 2014 were by 4 or fewer points.


CLEMSON (Offense - *6/2, Defense - 3/0, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: THE TIMES ARE A-CHANGIN’
The big storyline for the Tigers in 2015 is the departure of OC Chad Morris to SMU – and the loss of eight starters from last year’s top-ranked defense. Regarding Morris, head coach Dabo Swinney insists the offense is a “Clemson offense”, noting the Tigers scored 40 points in last year’s bowl game with Tony Elliott calling the plays. The main concern is the loss of three starting OL from a unit that allowed just 27 sacks. Meanwhile, injuries limited the playing time of mercurial QB Deshaun Watson who returns after playing in just eight games last year. And those eight defensive starters will be missed after totaling a hefty 209-career team starts.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Dabo Swinney is 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in games in which Clemson owns a losing record.


DUKE (Offense - 6/3 , Defense - 6/1, 51 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: THE CUTTING EDGE
A lot of firsts have happened at Duke under head coach David Cutcliffe, including winning nine or more games in consecutive seasons, and playing in three straight bowls game for the first time in school history. In his seven seasons, Cutcliffe has guided Duke to 40 victories – 30 more than the Blue Devils totaled in the previous eight years. Cutcliffe also owns an added edge having mentored two Super Bowl winning QB’s – the Mannings, Peyton at Tennessee and Eli at Ole Miss. It’s no wonder Cutcliffe is not fretting the loss of QB Anthony Boone and his top two WRs in Jamison Crowder and Issac Blackeney. After all, he’s been there and done that.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Duke led the nation in fewest tackles for loss allowed per game in 2014.


FLORIDA STATE (Offense - 3/1 , Defense - 7/3, 37 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: FORGET THE DOG, BEWARE THE SEMINOLES
Losing eight starters from a prolific offense, including a Heisman Trophy winning QB (Jameis Winston), would be devastating for most squads. Not to mention the most picks (11) of all teams in this year’s NFL Draft. The Seminoles, however, are not like most teams… they simply reload. Jimbo Fisher has won 58 games in his first five years as a head coach – including 24 consecutive ACC games – and leads the nation in wins-per-season (11.60). Meanwhile, RB Dalvin Cook rushed for a freshman record 1,008 yards in 2014. And with the announcement of former Notre Dame QB Everett Golson transferring to FSU (eligible to play this season), the beat goes on in Tallahassee.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: FSU was the worst team in 4th down conversion percentage last season (0-14) - the only team with zero conversions.


GEORGIA TECH (Offense - *6/4, Defense - 8/2, 50 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: AN IMPRESSIVE JOHNSON
Meet college football’s most underrated coach: Paul Johnson. If you think not, then think again. In his 18 years as a head coach, Johnson has led his teams to either FCS playoffs or FBS bowl games 17 times. In seven seasons at Georgia Tech, Johnson has produced thirteen 1,000-yard rushers, so it’s no coincidence that Johnson is 73-19 in games where his team rushes for 300 or more yards. A salty road schedule this season finds them visiting Notre Dame, Duke, Clemson, Virginia and Miami Florida. Is Johnson worried? Nope. Not when second-year DC Ted Roof saw the Jackets’ defense create a turnover on 26% of opponent possessions – best in the FBS.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Georgia Tech led the nation in 3rd down conversion percentage (.579) last season.


LOUISVILLE (Offense - *5/2, Defense - 6/3, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: LIZARD’S LANDING
If we didn’t know better, we’d swear Bobby Petrino was actually a one-time lord of one of the seven kingdoms in Westeros (likely a White Walker given his Game of Thrones-like penchant for moving about). Louisville has seen eight picks go in the first three rounds of the NFL draft in the past two seasons – and with a school-record record 10 players selected in this year’s NFL Draft, including star WR DeVante Parker (Dolphins), perhaps it’s a good thing the Lizard King played eight true freshmen in 2014. The Cards do welcome back three QBs who started games last season, including Will Gardner. Former UAB head coach Garrick McGee joins the staff as the new OC.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Bobby Petrino’s teams are 86-14 when scoring over 20 points in a game, and 57-3 when allowing 14 or fewer points.


MIAMI, FL. (Offense - *5/3, Defense - 5/2, 42 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: TURN DOWN THE HEAT
When they say the heat is on in Miamithese days, they’re not talking about the basketball team.Seven picks in this year’s NFL Draft from a Hurricanes team that went 6-7 pretty much sums up the discontent in Miami these days surrounding the job Al Golden is doing with this football program. Or to put a positive spin on it, the Miami Herald’s Greg Cote said it best when he declared, “That Al Golden – he sure can recruit!” Now, after facing the nation’s ninth-toughest schedule in 2014, the Canes will take on the third-toughest to-do list in the land (foes 97-58 last year, including nine bowlers). Thank the sun god for quarterback Brad Kaaya.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Al Golden is 14-1 ATS as a home dog of 24 or less points.


NC STATE (Offense - *7/4, Defense - 8/2, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BALANCING ACT
Dual-threat QB Jacoby Brissett tossed for 2,606 yards with 26 TDs and five interceptions last season, leading as well-balanced an offense (2,659 yards on the ground and 2,652 through the air) as you’ll find. Brissett also led the nation in ‘Interception Avoidance’ last year with only five picks in 370 pass attempts – the best record in the ACC since Russell Wilson in 2008. As a result, NCSU appears to have turned the corner behind Dave Doeren’s rebuilding effort. They improved across the board on both sides of the ball in 2014 and with Brissett leading the charge in 2015 behind 14 returning starters, the Pack looks to be back and in good hands.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: NC State tied for third playing the most underclassmen (74) last season.


NORTH CAROLINA Off - *10/5, Defense - 7/2, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: GRAND MARQUISE
After starting the final five games in 2013 and going 4-1, including a win in the Belk Bowl, QB Marquise Williams totaled 3,856 yards for the Tar Heels last year. The problem is the defense was nowhere to be seen as it back-pedaled 95 YPG while allowing 5.2 YPR on the ground. Thus, UNC was outyarded in 11 of its 13 contests, making this a pivotal year in the Larry Fedora household. Williams is back, along with nine other starters on offense, including all five OL (four juniors and one senior), making for more fireworks in Chapel Hill. Better news is the addition of new DC Gene Chizik, the ex-Auburn head coach. It’s time to plug up the black hole.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Fedora is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in his career versus opponents who were upset as a favorite in their previous game.


PITTSBURGH (Offense - *8/4, Defense - 8/3, 47 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: TOUGH AS NAILS
Pat Narduzzi, whose devastating defenses at Michigan State ranked in the nation’s Top 10 in total and rushing defense from 2011 thru 2014, is the new man in Steel City. “What we did there, we will do here,” insists the tough-as-nails Narduzzi. He brings in DC Josh Conklin from FIU, architect of the nation's 4th-best red zone 'D' last season. Anchoring the unit is senior CB Lafayette Pitts, who leads all returning ACC starters in career starts with 38. On offense, star RB James Conner bulldozed his way to 1,765 yards and an ACC-record 26 touchdowns in 2014. With six losses last year by just 29 combined points, look for ‘Nails’ to drive home his point.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The 2014 Panthers’ roster featured 81 underclassmen (53 freshmen and 28 sophomores), highest of any FBS team.


SYRACUSE (Offense - *6/3, Defense - 3/1, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: NO PULP
Despite ranking 26th in overall team ‘D’, debilitating injuries doomed the Orange to a 3-9 mark last season, including 1-7 in the ACC. The good news is dual-threat QB Terrel Hunt returns after missing the final seven games with a broken fibula. The Orange open the campaign with four straight home games, the first three of which are winnable. It’s a rocky road after that, though, as four of the next five games are away, with tough-as-nails Pittsburgh sandwiched at home in between. And the final six games are all against 2014 bowl teams. So the question is can Syracuse muster up enough early wins and steal a few late ones to get a bowl bid?


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Syracuse is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in its last twelve bowl games versus sub .800 opponents.


VIRGINIA (Offense - *6/3, Defense - 5/2, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: 10TH AMENDMENT
A 5-7 season last year took some heat off Mike London as opposed to Virginia’s 2-win effort in 2013. Behind DC Jon Tenuta, the Cavaliers’ defense improved leaps and bounds in 2014, to the point that five of last year’s losses were by 8 or less points – against a schedule that saw 10 opponents go bowling. Incredibly, UVA will go up against 10 more foes this season that hit the alleys last year, featuring three non-conference games versus Boise State, Notre Dame and UCLA. We’re not sure what sort of deal Mike London may have made with the devil prior to accepting the head-coaching job at Virginia but it appears to have been ironclad.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Virginia will face only one opponent in 2015 with a losing record that was not in a bowl game last year (Syracuse).


VIRGINIA TECH Off - *8/2, Defense - 7/3, 58 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BEAM US BACK UP, FRANKIE


Uh oh. After winning 10 or more games every year from 2004-2011, the Hokies have gone just 22-17 since. Included in the bad report card is a losing record in conference play for the first time since 2002, and a team that was the worst in the nation in blocked punts allowed (4) in 2014. The culprit, though, has been a stagnant offense, one that loses three OL who started all 13 games last season. Still, Frank Beamer’s 273 career victories trails only Joe Paterno, Bobby Bowden, Bear Bryant, Pop Warner and Amos Alonso Stagg on the FBS career victory list. It’s time for Beamer to stop resting on his laurels and get back to what he does best… winning.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Hokies are 13-1 ATS as underdogs off a loss when playing with revenge behind Frank Beamer.


WAKE FOREST (Offense - *7/3, Defense - 7/3, 37 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: THE YOUNG AND THE RESTLESS
Wake hasn’t finished with a winning record since 2008 and has been to only one bowl game since. Forced to play an inordinate amount of inexperienced players last year – tied for the third-most underclassmen (74) – it wasn’t until the campaign’s final game that a player who scored for Wake in 2013 managed to score a point for the Deacs in 2014! In fact, freshman QB John Wolford didn’t get to campus until August and then started every game, completing 58 percent of his passes for 2,037 yards and 12 TDs. Redshirt TE Cam Serigne latched onto 54 of those tosses. Unfortunately, that won’t be enough to prevent another losing effort in 2015.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Demon Deacons are 1-22 SU versus .500 or greater opponents from Game Eight out.

 

[CNOTES]

ACC Atlantic Outlook


June 10, 2015


ACC Preview - Atlantic Division

In our first conference preview installment of the summer we are breaking down the ACC, starting with the Atlantic Division, the better of the two divisions having won the last four conference championships. This portion of my preview will look at each team using an opening, good news, bad news & bottom line breakdown; before the season starts I will project division & conference winners using these previews along with schedule breakdowns.

The SBPI, or SportsBoss Power Index, referenced often in breakdowns below is a ratings system I developed that uses a mix of approximately 20 statistical categories on both offense & defense, grading each team on each statistic followed by adjusting for SOS to reach a final rating.


Teams listed in alphabetical order

Boston College Eagles:


The Eagles appear to be trending in a favorable direction under 3rd year Head Coach Steve Addazio as when he took over BC ranked #118 in the SBPI, but they climbed to #76 in 2013 and finished last year surprisingly at #40 (which was actually just 8th best in the ACC).


Good news: last season BC went 7-6 including three conference road wins & a home win over USC. Four of their six losses were by 4 points or less including 3-point losses to Clemson & at Florida State. Their rush defense, which ranked 2nd in the country last season (behind Michigan State) should be solid once again with five of the front seven starters returning to Chestnut Hill.


Bad news: the Eagles lose their best offensive player in QB Tyler Murphy & do not have any experience behind him. In addition they will have a new OC & be breaking in five new offensive linemen. Lastly their FG kicking game is surrounded by questions.


Botton line: with all the new pieces in critical spots a .500 season would be a success despite the fact they will play 8 of their 12 games at home (one of the 8 is at Gillette Stadium vs. Notre Dame). This is clearly a season of transition for BC as they are still searching for a QB & will struggle more than usual with their rushing game breaking in new starters across the OL.

Clemson Tigers:


Heading into the last few seasons Clemson has found themselves on the fringe of the national championship discussion; however they were never able to get over the hump vs. their rival Florida State – if that is going to change anytime this year figures to offer the best opportunity roster & schedule wise.


Good news: They went 10-3 last year; they lost at Georgia (off the schedule in 2015), and twice in conference at Florida State & at Georgia Tech (get both those games in Death Valley this year). QB Deshaun Watson returns; he was a dynamic playmaker when on the field last season, but was injured often and without his services the Tigers offense looked brutal. K Ammon Lakip is solid.


Bad news: Watson must prove he can stay healthy & on the field following a season with injuries; he did not play in 5 games & only saw partial action in another 4. Only two OL starters return, as Clemson must replace both guards & their RT. The biggest questions are clearly on defense as they lose their entire starting front seven from a unit that was #1 in the nation as measured by yards allowed & #3 in points allowed.


Botton line: The Tigers must take advantage of what will be sure step-back by the Seminoles this season by winning the Atlantic division – anything less will be a major disappointment. The schedule sets up favorably for at least that; their trip to South Carolina to close the season isn’t as brutal as it has been recently with Spurrier’s team not on that elite level – so the possibility is there to reach the CFB Playoff if Watson can stay healthy & the Tigers stay focused weekly.

Florida State Seminoles:


Despite reaching the CFB Playoff last season the Seminoles were an overrated squad according to SBPI, checking in at #57 on the season; that came on the heels of a #2 ranking in 2013 (they won National Title & were ranked only behind Alabama) & a #4 ranking in 2012. With the loss of Heisman Trophy winning & #1 overall NFL Draft pick QB Jameis Winston this is a season of transition for the Noles.


Good news: this is Florida State, and Head Coach Jimbo Fisher has done a fine job recruiting (their last four recruiting classes were ranked #1, #2, #9 & #3) thus FSU and their fans would say they reload & there is plenty of untapped talent in the pipeline waiting for their opportunity to shine on the field. Offensively Sophomore RB Dalvin Cook will be one of the best backs in America, while a couple of junior college OL look to fill in the gaps up front. Defensively the interior of the line will be strong, and their special teams units are always amongst the best in America; 2015 will be no different led by K Roberto Aguayo, who won the Lou Groza award in 2013 and is the favorite heading into this season.


Bad news: losing QB Jameis Winston is right at the top obviously. He is likely to be replaced by Sean Maguire, who looked average at best in his only action last year at home against Clemson’s tough defense. His transition into the starting role will be critical to the Seminoles success as there are some holes on defense, in particular rushing the passer, at LB and some secondary spots.


Botton line: FSU has gone 27-1 the last 2 seasons with Jameis Winston under center – which has expectations super high in Tallahassee. This season competing for the Atlantic division crown, something they have won 3 straight seasons, will be a challenge in itself & should be the goal. But with road trips to Georgia Tech & Clemson it will be tough to four-peat.

Louisville Cardinals:


Last year the Cardinals joined the ACC under first year Head Coach Bobby Petrino (his 2nd stint with team) and had moderate success in a transition season on many levels posting a 9-4/5-3 mark. The program came alive under former Head Coach Charlie Strong (now at Texas) in 2010 when they improved from an SBPI ranking of #95 in 2009 to #31 in 2010, and they leveraged that success to check in right behind Clemson the last two seasons at #14 last year & #11 in 2013 according to SBPI.


Good news: Bobby Petrino’s influence on the offense should come through more in his 2nd season as in his first go-around with Louisville they posted the same 9-4 mark in his 1st season which jumped to 11-1 in his 2nd year. There is experience at QB although none of the three options (likely down to two in Bonnafon & Gardner) separated from the pack during spring practice. Transfers could play big roles on both sides of the ball with former Northwestern RB Malin Jones, former Texas A&M WR Ja’Quay Savage, former UAB WR Jamari Staples, former TCU DE Devonte Fields (former Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year) & former Georgia S Josh Harvey-Clemons all in line for likely starting roles. The kicking game, in particular K John Wallace, will be strong.


Bad news: The Cardinals remain unsettled at QB (mentioned above), just like most of last season as there does not appear to be a “star in the making” that will put up video game like stats in Petrino’s high powered offense. They also lost their top 3 WR’s, 3 of their 5 starting OL & their entire secondary. There is some talent that is waiting for their opportunity to step in, particularly on the defensive side of the football where Charlie Strong did a solid job recruiting.


Botton line: There are likely too many question marks for Louisville to challenge for the Atlantic Division crown especially with a tough road slate that includes Florida State along with cross-overs against NC State & Pittsburgh (both figure to be in the mix for the Coastal Division title). Opening on a neutral site vs. Auburn & closing at improving Kentucky will make matching last year’s 9-4 mark difficult. Settling on a QB is the biggest key – with both main challengers for the job having at least 2 years of eligibility remaining things could be looking up for Louisville next season if they get the right guy under center as there are only two projected offensive starters that are in their final season of eligibility.

NC State Wolfpack:


Ranked #39 in SBPI last season, slotting them 7th in the conference – which is where they typically reside, as a middle pack team in the ACC. Last year’s ranking was their 2nd best of the last 6 years, just behind their 2010 team that checked in at #38 and was 9-4/5-3 (tied for 2nd in the Atlantic) finishing the season ranked #25 in the AP Poll. Can they build on last season & become a threat in the rugged Atlantic Division?


Good news: Senior QB Jacoby Brissett, the former Florida Gator, flourished in his first season in Raleigh but consistency sometimes eluded the big playmaker. With a year of experience under his belt, the leader of what could be the best backfield in the ACC should have an even bigger season. Speaking of that backfield the RB spot is also in excellent shape returning its top 2 backs and adding three highly touted recruits that should push for immediate playing time (last year NC State rushed for its most yards per game since 1992). The defensive backfield is solid as the entire secondary returns in tact.


Bad news: The OL will have two new starting tackles including a likely freshman starting at LT. The rush defense, which ranked 65th last season, loses both DT’s and one of the two starting LB’s in the 4-2-5 scheme and could remain an issue although the aggressive style implemented late last year by 1st year DC Dave Huxtable should help offset that partially. The special teams will replace their kicker, punter and long snapper while the return game is below average.


Botton line: The offense has some upside for certain as statistically they finished middle of the pack nationally last year, but protection & finding WR’s will be key to a balanced attack. Defensively they will be solid against the pass, but must find the bodies to play effective run defense to challenge for the Atlantic Division title. NC State could surprise everyone this season and win their division for the first time since the split – if they can get a split at Florida State & at Virginia Tech they could be in the driver’s seat.

Syracuse Orange:


The Orange were the 2nd worst ACC team in the SBPI last year checking in at #93, which was their worst ranking since the SBPI’s inception in 2009. After peaking at #36 in 2012 they have gone downhill each season, and need to approach .500 in 2015 if Scot Shafer is going to keep his job. Offense was the issue last year, mostly driven by the injury to starting QB Terrel Hunt – when they scored a modest 21+ points in a game they were 3-0 – so his health will be key to the 2015 campaign.


Good news: Mentioned above Terrel Hunt, the 5th year Sr. is one of the few bright spots for an offense that struggled mightily last season averaging just 17.1 points per game, slotting them #118 in the country. Although there may be some shuffling along the OL there are 10 players back that have started a game for the Orange there. Ashton Broyld is a dynamic playmaker (most likely the most talented / athletic player on the roster) that will see plenty of action but has yet to really settle into a position that maximizes his value. Senior P Riley Dixon could challenge for the Ray Guy award on special teams.


Bad news: Lots of it, sadly for Orange fans. They lose nearly 75% of their RB production, have just 1 WR returning who was productive last year, lose starting LT Sean Hickey who was taken in the NFL Draft and have just 3 starters returning to a defense that was easily the strength of the team in 2014 ranking 26th in yards allowed – which says a lot about how good that unit was considering how poor Syracuse’s offense was. In addition there is uncertainty at PK.


Botton line: The 'Cuse is likely to once again be ranked in the SBPI 90+, which obviously is not a good spot for success. Their offense should take a small step forward if Hunt takes a majority of the snaps, but the defense is likely to take a big step backwards with all the talent & experience they lost. Matching last year’s 3 wins could be tough without a fast start in September.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons:


Since shocking the college football world nine years ago (wow time flies) winning the ACC there has not been much to talk about when it comes to Wake Forest football, especially over the last five years according to SBPI. During this stretch their best year was 2011 when they checked in at #71; the other four seasons they have been ranked between 92 and 107, including last year’s 106. Much like Syracuse offense has been their major Achilles – last year they scored 22+ points in 3 games (in games 2, 3 & 4 of season) and went 2-1 in those; the rest of the season they only managed to score more than 17 twice – not a good recipe for success.


Good news: Yes the offense was awful last year ranking near the bottom of FBS in yardage & points scored – but perhaps there will be some improvement based on the lone fact the offense was extremely young last year & almost everyone returns. Two transfers could make a huge impact at RB as former Tennessee commit Rocky Reid & former Louisville commit Matt Colburn should add a nice athleticism Wake typically does not feature. Wake’s rush defense should be much improved with 6 of the front seven returning including a LB unit that is near the top of the ACC. The kicking game is in great shape with Ray Guy challenger Alex Kinal & PK Mike Weaver.


Bad news: The OL was one of the worst in the ACC last year & is still very young and inexperienced. Their downfield passing game needs help in all areas: the OL needs to protect better, So. QB John Wofford needs to be willing to throw ball downfield more often, and the WR’s have to cut back on the drops in a big way. Their secondary, a strength last year leading Wake to a #12 finish in passing yards allowed, loses three of four starters & currently has a ton of injuries to deal with.


Botton line: Wake will once again be one of the youngest teams in the country, especially that offense which was a major issue last season. Their schedule does them no favors either with only one likely win in their opener at home vs. Elon. Dave Clawson is in his 2nd year with the Deacons & will have to wait until at least 2016 and perhaps 2017 to be competitive in the ACC.

 

[CNOTES]

Georgia's QB competition down to 3


June 11, 2015


ATHENS, Ga. (AP) - Jacob Park is transferring from Georgia following the expected arrival of former Virginia quarterback Greyson Lambert.


Park, a redshirt freshman, worked mostly with the scout team last year and might have had a tough time beating out Lambert, Brice Ramsey and Faton Bauta for the starting quarterback job.


In the end, he feels like the opportunity for significant playing time would be better at another school,'' Georgia coach Mark Richt said. ''I can understand his decision, and we'll support him in finding a good fit at another institution.''


Lambert, a nine-game starter at Virginia last year, confirmed his decision to transfer to Georgia in a text message to The Associated Press last week.


Lambert has two years of eligibility remaining. He lost the Cavaliers' starting job in the spring.


Ramsey and Bauta ended spring as co-leaders in Georgia's quarterback competition. Ramsey was the top backup last season to senior Hutson Mason.


The Bulldogs have a new offensive coordinator in Brian Schottenheimer.


Georgia can't announce Lambert's decision until he enrolls in graduate school or signs a financial aid agreement.

 

[CNOTES]

Notre Dame DE Williams to transfer

June 11, 2015


SOUTH BEND, Ind. (AP) - Defensive end Jhonny Williams is transferring from Notre Dame after not playing as a freshman.


Notre Dame spokesman Michael Bertsch said Thursday the 6-foot-4, 260-pound from Benton Harbor, Michigan, about 35 miles from South Bend, had informed the coaching staff he plans to transfer. Williams announced the move with a posting on Facebook thanking people for their support.


Williams had been expected to compete for playing time in the fall.

 

[CNOTES]

Bowl projections for 2015-16 postseason


June 9, 2015


The Football Bowl Association released the schedule for the 2015-16 postseason, making it a perfect time to do the impossible and pick which teams will be playing in the record 40 bowl games set to take place between Dec. 19 and Jan. 2.


Plenty of wishful thinking involved - Texas vs. Texas A&M! - and picks all are subject to change before the season starts.


Arizona Bowl


Wyoming vs. Rice


Cure Bowl


Houston vs. Georgia Southern


New Orleans Bowl


Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Air Force


New Mexico Bowl


Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico


Las Vegas Bowl

Utah State vs. California


Camellia Bowl


Toledo vs. South Alabama


Miami Beach Bowl


UCF vs. Western Kentucky


Famous Idaho Potato Bowl


Bowling Green vs. Fresno State


Boca Raton (Fla.) Bowl


Western Michigan vs. East Carolina


Poinsettia Bowl


San Diego State vs. Washington


GoDaddy Bowl


Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois


Bahamas Bowl


Ball State vs. Middle Tennessee


Hawaii Bowl


BYU vs. Temple


St. Petersburg Bowl


Cincinnati vs. North Carolina


Sun Bowl


Louisville vs. Utah


Heart of Dallas Bowl


West Virginia vs. Marshall


Pinstripe Bowl


Pittsburgh vs. Michigan


Independence Bowl


Miami vs. Florida


Foster Farms Bowl

Iowa vs. Stanford


Military Bowl


Navy vs. Virginia Tech


Quick Lane Bowl


Illinois vs. Duke


Armed Forces Bowl


Colorado State vs. Rutgers


Russell Athletic Bowl


Kansas State vs. Florida State


Texas Bowl


Texas A&M vs. Texas


Birmingham Bowl


Memphis vs. Mississippi State


Belk Bowl


North Carolina State vs. Missouri


Music City Bowl


Georgia Tech vs. Tennessee


Holiday Bowl


Arizona vs. Penn State


Peach Bowl


Alabama vs. Clemson


College Football Playoff semifinal at Cotton Bowl


Notre Dame vs. Auburn


College Football Playoff semifinal at Orange Bowl


Ohio State vs. Baylor


Outback Bowl


Nebraska vs. Arkansas


Citrus Bowl


Wisconsin vs. LSU


Fiesta Bowl


Boise State vs. Oregon


Rose Bowl


Arizona State vs. Michigan State


Sugar Bowl


Georgia vs. TCU


TaxSlayer Bowl


Minnesota vs. South Carolina


Liberty Bowl


Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss


Alamo Bowl


USC vs. Oklahoma


Cactus Bowl


UCLA vs. Oklahoma State


College Football Championship Game in Glendale, Arizona


Ohio State vs. Auburn

 

[CNOTES]

2015 Big Ten Preview


June 16, 2015




Locked and Loaded


The 2015 Big Ten campaign will feature 28 All-Conference players from last season, with 11 first-team honorees and 17 second-team selections returning to the field this fall.


The first team returnees are comprised of four Offenseensive standouts, five defensive players and two special teams performers. The returning second team picks include seven players on offense and 10 on defense.


Welcome Aboard


The Big Ten will welcome three new head coaches to the sidelines for the 2015 campaign in Michigan's Jim Harbaugh, Nebraska's Mike Riley and Wisconsin's Paul Chryst.


And speaking of sideline bosses, six current Big Ten mentors have been college head coaches for 10 years or more: Minnesota’s Jerry Kill (21 seasons), Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz (19), Maryland’s Randy Edsall (16), Nebraska’s Riley (14), Ohio State’s Urban Meyer (13) and Michigan State’s Mark Dantonio (11).


QB Less


The conference hasn’t experienced a lot of success with quarterbacks in the NFL draft. Northwestern QB Trevor Siemian (7th round, Denver) was the first signal caller nabbed in the draft since 2012.


It hasn’t had a first-round QB in 20 years (1995, Penn State’s Kerry Collins) and has had more than two quarterbacks selected just three times, dating back to 1936.


That should change soon, though, as three signal callers could be first-round picks: Michigan State’s Connor Cook, Ohio State’s Cardale Jones and Penn State’s Christian Hackenburg.


Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


ILLINOIS (Offense - *8/3, Defense – 7/2, 49 Lettermen)


Team Theme: DOUBLE TROUBLE BUBBLE


Without late-season wins against Penn State and Northwestern, Illini HC Tim Beckman would be jobless right now. However, that pair of season-ending victories enabled Beckman to double team wins each of the past two seasons. He welcomes 15 starters back from last year’s squad, including well-traveled QB Wes Lunt. The bad news: star WR Mike Dudek tore his ACL in spring camp and will be out until at least October. Still, after being out yarded in eight of its first 10 games last season, the Illini closed out the campaign with three consecutive stat wins. Our best guess is that a third straight seven-game home slate sends them bowling again.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Illinois is 4-26 SU and 10-20 ATS in its last 30 Big Ten games, including 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS as a favorite.


INDIANA (Offense – *7/4, Defense – 5/3, 34 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: THE WAITING IS THE HARDEST PART


Entering the fifth year of the Kevin Wilson regime, Hoosiers fans are growing antsy. Hailed as an offensive guru, Wilson’s attack has not disappointed, setting 43 offensive school records to date. The defense, though, has been downright heartbreaking… until last year. That’s when IU’s stop-unit, under first-year DC Brian Knorr (former Ohio U head coach), improved a whopping 95 YPG, actually holding three foes to 16 or fewer points. FYI: they had held a combined total of three teams to the same 16 or fewer points in Wilson’s three previous years. Should a promising defense finally step up and deliver, a 7-year bowl wait could be over in 2015.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: IU’s win at Missouri last season marked the first win ever by a Big Ten team on the road versus a ranked SEC team.


IOWA (Offense – 5/3, Defense – 7/2, 40 Lettermen)


Team Theme: DOWN BUT NOT OUT


Kirk Ferentz, the dean of Big Ten head coaches, returns with his coaching staff intact. The biggest loss was the graduation of star RB Mark Weisman, who led the team in rushing each of the last three seasons while running for 32 career touchdowns. In addition, senior quarterback Jake Ruddock – who started 23 of Iowa’s last 24 games – has transferred to Michigan. Don’t discount their chances, however. Despite the fact the Hawkeyes host five teams that were in bowl games last season, they will face the softest schedule of all Big Ten teams in 2015 (foes 65-74). Remember, four of their six losses last year were by a touchdown or less.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Iowa has held 11 opponens to season low – or 2nd low – yardage the last two years.


MARYLAND (Offense - 6/3, Defense – 4/1, 34 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: TURTLE SOUP


Like a pot of soup left uncovered overnight, the successful first trek for the Terrapins to the Big Ten last season was tasteful but slightly tainted. Yes, they managed seven wins and a Foster Farms Bowl appearance but they were out yarded by nearly 100 YPG, including eight straight stat losses to conclude the campaign. As a result, the offense gained 55 yards fewer than last year while the defense surrendered 60 yards more. To complicate matters, Caleb Rowe takes over the quarterbacking duties from C.J. Brown. Rowe has appeared in 13 career games (3 starts), throwing for 1,768 yards and 12 TDs. We seldom back teams that went bowling with smoke-and-mirrors the previous year, and we’re not about to start here.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Edsall is 25-10 ATS in his career versus sub .333 opponents.


MICHIGAN (Offense - 8/4, Defense – 9/3, 52 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: HAR-BALL


When the Wolves suffered three losses before October last year for the first time in school history, and missed a bowl game for only the third time since 1978, the call went out and Jim Harbaugh answered. The Michigan grad was a four-year letterwinner in Ann Arbor from 1983-86. He won 49 games in four years with the San Francisco 49ers and 58 games in seven seasons with San Diego and Stanford. It wasn’t penalties that did this team in last year (2nd fewest of all FBS teams with 42), it was turnovers: -16 net TO’s (only three teams worse), with only 10 TO’s gained (two teams worse). With a stacked cupboard, it’s now Harbaugh-time in the Big House.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Graduate quarterback Jake Ruddock has transferred from Iowa to Michigan and will be eligible to play this season.


MICHIGAN STATE (Offense - *7/4, Defense – 7/3, 52 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: RECORD-SETTING MARKS


It’s safe to say the Spartans have never played a better brand of football than they have over the past two seasons. They enter the 2015 campaign with gaudy numbers, including the most wins (53) of any team in the Big Ten since 2010. Granted, they will face a tough schedule this season, but future NFL fifth-year senior QB Connor Cook and four starting OL are back. And Mark Snyder (former Marshall head coach and DC at Texas A&M the last four years) reunites with Mark Dantonio from their days together at Ohio State. Remember this, though: Dantonio has NEVER been a head coach without Pat Narduzzi (Pitt) on his staff. 2015 will be his first.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Spartans have held Michigan to one touchdown (last year with 3:40 remaining) in the last three meetings.


MINNESOTA (Offense - *6/4, Defense – 7/2, 48 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: ALL IN THE FAMILY


We admit it. We love Jerry Kill to death. And so does his 10-man assistant coaching staff, the longest tenured in college football, having been at his side for a total of 154 years. While continuing to battle life-threatening diseases, Kill managed to take his team to a New Year’s Day bowl game last season – the first Minnesota coach to do so since 1962. The task at hand this year, though, could be debilitating. The four players selected in this year’s draft – including their top two tacklers – represent the largest haul of Gophers taken by the NFL since 2006. Three bowl seasons in a row is to be applauded. The fact that Minny was out yarded all three of those years is not.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Minnesota has been to six bowl games since 2006. They were out yarded every season.


NEBRASKA (Offense - *7/2, Defense – 8/3, 60 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BE LIKE MIKE


New veteran head coach Mike Riley, formerly with Oregon State, brings 41 years of coaching experience, including 24 years as a head coach (15 college and 9 professional – NFL, CFL and WLAF). Before accepting the Nebraska job, Riley was the longest tenured coach in the Pac-12 and had the seventh-longest coaching tenure of any head coach in the FBS ranks. His 10 assistant coaches bring 244 years of coaching experience, including eight who have spent time coaching in the professional ranks. They hand the keys over to JR QB Tommy Armstrong Jr., who has directed the Nebraska offense each of the last two seasons, winning 16 of his 21 starts.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Huskers have won 29 straight season openers, the most of all FBS teams.


NORTHWESTERN (Offense - 6/3, Defense – 8/4, 62 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: CLOSE SHAVES


Close-call losses have served as the theme for this team the last three seasons – and last year was no exception. Had they scored on a 2-point conversion on the final play of the Michigan game, they would have gone bowling instead of staying home for the second straight year with a 5-7 record. FYI: the Wildcats have lost FIVE games the last three seasons on the final play of the game. While QB Trevor Siemian became the first Big Ten quarterback drafted by the NFL since 2012, the Wildcats return star RB Justin Jackson (1,187 rushing yards), along with a bevy of returning lettermen (62). Expect them to go bowling by the hair on their chinny, chin, chin.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The last three times the Wildcats failed to go bowling in successive years they landed bowl bids the following season (2000, 2003 and 2009).


OHIO STATE (Offense - *8/4, Defense – 7/2, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: THREE-HEADED MONSTER


After watching the Buckeyes make mincemeat of foes in the first-ever FBS playoffs last year, head coach Urban Meyer is now 38-3 SU with OSU, including 25-1 in Big Ten play. He also ranks No. 3 among active coaches in wins per season (10.85). In fact, only seven FBS teams have posted 14 wins in a season since 1937, including the 2002 and 2014 Ohio State squads. Junior RB Ezekiel Elliott is clearly the alpha male of a running back unit that features three other lettermen from 2014. Three future NFL QB’s – Braxton Miller, J. T. Barrett and Cardale Jones – also return. So if a two-headed quarterback is problematic, what happens with three heads? And here’s an even scarier thought: Ohio State didn’t have any 1st round picks in the Draft this year because they’re all back in 2015.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Buckeyes were the only team in the nation to outgain every opponent last season.


PENN STATE (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 7/2, 40 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: FLIP THE SWITCH


If we were to tell you of a bowl team last year that regressed nearly 100 YPG on offense, you’d look to get the ‘fade-stick’ out. Then again, this same wobbly offensive team was one that saw its defense improve over 100 YPG from the previous season – all while under the direction of new head coach James Franklin. Yes, it’s the Jekyll-and-Hyde Nittany Lions, a squad that owned the nation’s second-best stop unit in 2014, allowing just 278.7 YPG. Meanwhile, a total of 210 returning starts equates to the second-most in the Big Ten this season. We can only imagine what happens should the light go on for future NFL QB Christian Hackenberg.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Penn State played the second-most underclassmen (76) of all FBS teams last season.


PURDUE (Offense – *8/5, Defense – 8/2, 50 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BOILER UP


There are some football pundits in the know who feel this could be the surprise team in the Big Ten this season. Rest assured, if it doesn’t happen, you can color head coach Darrell Hazell gone. A 1-15 SU Big Ten mark under Hazell says it all. Taking on the toughest schedule in the conference – and sixth most difficult in the nation this year (foes 97-61) – is an enormous test. But Hazell played 70 underclassmen last season, and that should benefit the Boilermakers in 2015. Not having Ohio State on the slate won’t hurt, either. Remember, last year the Boilers saw their offense and defense improve by 62 YPG and 44 YPG, respectively.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Boilermakers tied with Arkansas last year for the best 4th-down conversion defense (.222) in the nation.


RUTGERS (Offense - 4/2, Defense – 6/2, 52 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: FLOOD PANTS


That panting you hear coming out of New Brunswick these days is likely head coach Kyle Flood agonizing over how to fill the holes of 12 departed starters from last year’s 8-win bowl squad. The good news is Flood’s troops return 99% of last year’s rushing yards and 74% of its receiving yards. The bad news is QB Gary Nova, one of the most decorated signal callers in school history, has departed. Nova made 41 starts in 46 career games, including all 13 last year when he tossed for 2,851 yards and 22 touchdowns. In addition, offensive coordinator Ralph Friedgen will transition to the role of special assistant to the head coach. A 10/10 home date with Michigan State (Knights lost to MSU 45-3 LY) will tell us a lot.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Rutgers was shut out last season for the first time since 2002.


WISCONSIN (Offense - *5/2, Defense – 6/1, 46 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: SLOW HAND


Following the defection of former HC Gary Andersen back west to Oregon State, new head coach Paul Chryst returns home after a three-year tenure at Pittsburgh. A former Badgers assistant under Bret Bielema, Chryst was born in Platteville, WI where Wisky head coach Bo Ryan was once the university’s basketball and golf coach. Chryst will hand the keys over to QB Joel Stave who has started games for portions of the last three years, amassing a 21-7 record as a starter for the Badgers. Caution: while Wisconsin will face the second softest schedule in the Big Ten (foes 74-79 last year), Chryst was a slow starter (6-7) at Pitt in his first season with the Panthers.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Badgers held five opponents to season-low yardage, and two others to 2nd-low yardage, last year.

 

[CNOTES]

GOY Odds - Part II


June 17, 2015


We already tackled 20 Games of the Year sent out by 5Dimes.eu a few weeks ago. Now the offshore website has released dozens of additional lines, including all the big ones in September and early October.


When I was on ESPN Radio in Nashville with the A to Z Gang last week, we broke down Tennessee's season win total. I made the Vols three-point home favorites vs. Oklahoma in Week 2, and 5Dimes.eu has done the same thing (-120 either way for all of these Games of the Year). The Vols will be looking to avenge a 34-10 loss at in Norman last year.


Other intriguing non-conference matchups in Week 2 include:


Boise State (-4) at BYU
Michigan (-10.5) vs. Oregon State
Iowa -4.5 at Iowa State
Rutgers (-7) vs. Washington State
Notre Dame (-5.5) at Virginia
Maryland (-11) vs. Bowling Green
Alabama (-35.5) vs. Middle Tennessee
Florida (-13) vs. East Carolina


Week 2 also features a pair of SEC showdowns. South Carolina is a 6.5-point home favorite vs. Kentucky, which rallied to beat the Gamecocks in Lexington last season. Also, LSU is a 2.5-point road 'chalk' at Mississippi St. The Bulldogs went into Baton Rouge last season and spanked the Tigers 34-29 in a game that wasn't anywhere near as close as the final score indicated.


Another Week 2 battle was one of the 20 previously released games. 5Dimes.eu had Michigan St. as a three-point home favorite vs. Oregon when the number came out. The book has adjusted the Spartans to 3.5-point home 'chalk.' The Ducks beat Michigan St. in Eugene last year by rallying from a nine-point deficit midway through the third quarter to win going away.


In Week 3, the party starts Thursday night when Louisville hosts Clemson as a three-point home underdog in a crucial ACC contest. Then on Friday night, all eyes will remain focused on the ACC as Florida St. ventures into Chesnut Hill to take on Boston College. 5Dimes.eu has the Seminoles as 14-point road favorites. Jimbo Fisher's team needed a last-second field goal to beat BC last year and it fell behind early at BC two years ago before rallying in a non-covering victory.


The SEC really heats up in Week 3 with a quartet of slugfests that should set the tone for eight schools in their respective division races. LSU will have revenge on its mind after getting clubbed on The Plains last year. Les Miles's team has been installed as a three-point home favorite vs. Auburn.


In the SEC East, we have the biggest number for South Carolina-Georgia in a long time. 5Dimes.eu has UGA favored by 15 for this showdown between the hedges. Florida is only a one-point favorite at Kentucky despite owning a 28-game winning streak over the Wildcats. UF's dominance of UK is the second-longest active streak behind only Penn St.'s 31-game surge against Temple. With that said, the 'Cats nearly won at The Swamp last year, dropping a 36-30 decision in triple overtime only after a controversial call went against UK in one of the earlier OT sessions.


Alabama is an 11-point home 'chalk' to Ole Miss, which mounted a fourth-quarter rally in Oxford to stun the Crimson Tide 23-17 last October. In a non-conference game, Arkansas will collide with Texas Tech as a 16-point home favorite. The Razorbacks went into Lubbock last year and dealt out a 49-28 shellacking. Also, Missouri takes on UConn as a 35-point home favorite.


Other Week 3 contests include:


Duke (-4) vs. Northwestern
Miami (-1) vs. Nebraska
Georgia Tech pick 'em at Notre Dame
Virginia Tech (-11.5) at Purdue
Navy (-2) vs. ECU
Washington (-3.5) vs. Utah State
Texas (-9.5) vs. California
UCLA (-14) vs. BYU
Iowa (-3) vs. Pittsburgh
USC (-3.5) vs. Stanford


On Thursday (9/24) of Week 4, Memphis is a 2.5-point home favorite to Tommy Tuberville's Cincinnati Bearcats.


Then on Friday night, Boise St. travels east to face UVA as a 6.5-point road 'chalk.' Also on Friday night in the Pac-12, Stanford is favored by 17 for a trip to Corvallis to meet Oregon State.


On Saturday of Week 4, the best games including:


Tennessee (-4) at Florida
USC (-2.5) at Arizona State
Oregon (-14) vs. Utah
UCLA (-3) at Arizona
Michigan (-5) vs. BYU
West Virginia (-10) vs. Maryland
Texas (-1.5) vs. Oklahoma State
LSU (-18.5) at Syracuse


In Week 5, Cincy collides with Miami at home on Thursday in a pick 'em affair.


Then on Saturday, attractive games include:


Clemson (-3.5) vs. Notre Dame
N.C. St. (-3) vs. Louisville
Georgia Tech (-14.5) vs. North Carolina
Virginia Tech (-9.5) vs. Pittsburgh
Oklahoma (-9.5) vs. West Virginia
Oklahoma State (-5) vs. Kansas State
TCU (-20) vs. Texas
Nebraska (-3) at Illinois
Wisconsin (-14) vs. Iowa
Stanford (-10.5) vs. Arizona


Four other Week 5 games will be contested in the SEC. Georgia is a one-point 'chalk' vs. Alabama, as 5Dimes.eu has switched the favored role after sending out the Tide as one-point favorites a few weeks ago.


Ole Miss will come to Gainesville as a four-point road favorite. The Rebels beat the Gators in Gainesville in their last visit in 2009 as enormous underdogs.


Missouri and South Carolina have traded comebacks the last two seasons. In 2013, an injured Connor Shaw entered the game at Missouri with his team trailing 17-0 early in the fourth quarter. Shaw would orchestrate a miraculous comeback for the Gamecocks, who eventually won by a 27-24 score in double overtime.


At Williams-Brice Stadium last year, Steve Spurrier's bunch held a 20-7 advantage going into the final stanza. However, Gary Pinkel's team would rally for a 21-20 victory. These programs play at Missouri this year with the Tigers listed as 11-point home favorites.


I mentioned nailing the UT line vs. Oklahoma earlier and I also had the Vols as 1.5-point home favorites to Arkansas. 5Dimes.eu agreed on that one also, but I had UF favored by 1.5 vs. UT, whereas 5Dimes.eu made the Vols favored for their trip to the Swamp. Remember, if UT beats UF to end an agonizing 10-game losing streak to the Gators, it will be in letdown mode despite being back at home the next week when the Hogs come calling.


The Red River Rivalry is the main event on Oct. 10 in Dallas. The Sooners are favored by four over the Longhorns, who covered the number in a 31-26 loss to OU last season.


I would expect 5Dimes.eu to add more games for late October soon, but that's it for now.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I know you do not write this stuff yourself. Do you use a compilation of several rags or just one? Your AAC post is 100% Mark Lawrence, or so it seems to be. You really should give credit to the people who actually did the writing.

 

[GoSooners]

BigJunkDaddy now complaining about C-Notes. I've seen it all now.

 

[CNOTES]

2015 Big 12 Preview


June 22, 2015




STATUS QUO


The Big 12 has decided that no change is best for the conference. A year after decrying the lack of a championship game after both Baylor and TCU were leapfrogged in the new College Football Playoffs it has decided to play a pat hand and move forward as is.


“One year doesn’t make a trend,” contends Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby. “Let’s see how this goes forward.”


Knowing that at least one conference from the Power Five will be shutout each year of the Playoffs, perhaps the Big 12 should consider scheduling at least one Power Five non-conference opponent each season (as does the SEC). Or, perhaps eliminate FCS foes altogether from the schedule.


For now, though, it’s status quo for the Little 10, err Big 12.


YEAH, THAT’S US


The Big 12 has had at least seven bowl teams in 15 of the last 17 seasons.


A total of 53 percent (16-of-30) of the Big 12’s non-conference games were against foes that participated in bowls, including two in the College Football Playoff semifinals.


Big 12 teams will play 21 teams in 2015 non-conference play who finished .500 or better in 2014.


Over the last six seasons, the Big 12 football conference has had six different teams win a conference trophy. No other peer conference has had as many different champions since 2009.


Just three Big 12 teams (Baylor, Kansas State and West Virginia) started a senior quarterback regularly throughout the 2014 season. Additionally, three squads (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech) started a freshman due to injury in their final regular season games.


Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


BAYLOR (Offense – 9/5, Defense – 9/4, 56 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: POLARIZING BEARS


After suffering through 14 consecutive losing seasons, five straight winning campaigns for the first time since 1935-39 puts Baylor head coach Art Briles in esteemed company. And to make matters worse for residents of the Big 12, the Bears are absolutely stacked this season – and in quite a nasty mood. Dave Bartoo of cfbmatrix.com reports Baylor’s underclassmen played 440 combined games in 2014, the most in the Big 12. As a result, they feature players with 234 returning starts in 2015 – the most in the conference (and sixth most in the nation). But the key is that the defense, led by future NFL DE Shawn Oakman, is now a real strength and no longer a weakness. Now that’s scary.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


Baylor outscored opponents 196-70 in the first quarter last season.


IOWA STATE (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 6/2, 47 Lettermen)


Team Theme: WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM MY FRIENDS


Fifth-year senior QB Sam Richardson leads the charge for the Cyclones in 2015, only this time with a little help from his friends. “The offensive line has been absolutely devastated by injuries the last two years, and I don’t use the word devastated lightly,” says head coach Paul Rhoads. As a result, this year’s unit features six players who have a combined 61 career starts. The situation was equally bad on the defensive line: two starters were dismissed from the team prior to the season, and the injury bug bit real hard. Freshmen were forced into action and others played out of position to help fill the void. The ensuing experience should reap major rewards in 2015, especially with Richardson’s top three WR’s averaging more than 6’4” in size.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


The Cyclones have allowed 500 or more yards in 10 of their last 15 games.


KANSAS (Offense - *4/2, Defense – 4/2, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: THE BEATY GOES ON


Former Texas A&M wide receivers coach David Beaty is the latest in line of six different Kansas head coaches over the last seven years. Beaty’s lineage traces back to Kansas where he was the wide receivers coach in 2008 and 2009. Helping Beaty navigate through rookie waters and lending stability to the coaching staff is DC and assistant head coach Clint Bowen, a 20-year veteran with the team and interim head coach last season when Charlie Weis resigned after the first four games of the campaign. Weis’ JUCO infusion didn’t cut the mustard and as a result, Beaty inherits a bare cupboard. Having to face 10 bowl teams from last year will be like David taking on Goliath – without a sling. Considering KU loses 10 of its top 13 tacklers on defense, along its top three WR’s plus the enitre left side of the OL, it looks like the Jayhawks will be ‘beatying’ to the same losing drum in 2015.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


The Jayhawks are 3-48 SU in their last 51 conference games.


KANSAS STATE (Offense – 6/4, Defense – 6/2, 46 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: ALL IN THE FAMILY


For the third straight season, Kansas State will be one of only five teams to be coached by the same 10 full-time coaches. It’s a staff that brings 243 years of combined coaching experience to the field – and continuity like that that has propelled Bill Snyder to 187 career wins with the Wildcats, 148 more than any other coach in program history. It’s also a major reason why Kansas State owns the best record (27-9) of all Big 12 teams the past three seasons. Granted, KSU loses stud WR’s Tyler Lockett and Curry Sexton, the only two receivers to eclipse 1,000 yard in the same season, but keep this thought in mind: only three times in school history has Kansas State suffered a losing season after a bowl trip the previous year. Yeah, it’s a family thing.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


Since 1990, Kansas State is 173-5 when leading at the half, including 47 wins in a row – the nation’s longest streak.


OKLAHOMA (Offense – *6/2, Defense – 6/1, 45 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: KA-BOOM!


Despite a disappointing rare 5-loss season, Oklahoma was the only team in the nation to rank in the Top 10 in both rushing offense and rushing defense last season. To which we say take heed: with three quarterbacks on the roster that have all started and won a game for the Sooners, along with RB Samaje Perine (led the Big 12 in rushing as a freshman last year) in the backfield, it’s important to note Bob Stoops is 36-5 combined the following season with OU after losing four or more games the previous year, including 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS as a dog. We don’t want to fade that… and neither should you. After losing six conference games the last two seasons – those most ever in the Bob Stoops era – we say beware of the Boomer Sooners.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


The Sooners are 25-0 SU in the regular season in games off a loss since 2003.


OKLAHOMA STATE (Offense – *9/3, Defense – 8/2, 46 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: NEW KIDS IN THE BLACK


There’s an old adage in sports that players make their greatest strides from their first year to their second year. What happens when most of a team’s starters on both sides of the ball fit into that description? Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State will find out in 2015. After fielding the least-experienced team in the nation last year, the Cowboys look to benefit in spades this season. The new kids on the block finished the season with a buzz with victories over Oklahoma and Washington. And while the Pokes welcome back 17 returning starters, they actually feature 19 returning players that started six or more games last year. Suddenly, orange is the new black.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


The Cowboys led the nation with 35 underclassmen on the two-deep season-ending roster last year.


TCU (Offense - *10/4, Defense – 6/3, 62 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED… ALMOST


If you thought the Frogs were impressive in last year’s mission season when they bounced back off a rare losing effort in 2013, then Katie bar the door this year! Gary Patterson welcomes no less than 62 lettermen, including 10 returning starters from the offense, back in 2015. And to make matters worse for the 12 opponents dotting their schedule, the Frogs will be playing with a large chip on their shoulder after being shunned by the playoff committee last season (Ole Miss sampled a taste of it in last year’s Peach Bowl), despite a lone 3-point loss at Baylor. Hence, there is either a major bounce or a continued effort coming. Despite losing five all-Big 12 conference performers from the 2014 roster, we like the latter.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


TCU will face the softest schedule of all Big 12 teams in 2015 with foes a combined 74-78 last season.


TEXAS (Offense – *8/5, Defense – 5/1, 42 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: A STRONGHOLD


It’s not often a team goes from 8 wins to a losing season in its first year under a celebrated head coach and it’s chalked up as an improvement. So how much did Charlie Strong improve this program in his first season last? Consider: after no Texas Longhorns were selected in the NFL 2014 draft for the first time since 1937, five were selected in this year’s draft, more than any team in the state of Texas. And by weeding out players who were impacting the squad in a negative way last year, Strong now has an iron grip on this program. Meanwhile, 2nd-year QB Tyrone Swoops and five OL starters return looking to re-ignite this mission team.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


Head coach Charlie Strong is 11-0 ATS as a visitor in games off a loss in his career.


TEXAS TECH (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 7/1, 50 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: ALL THE KING’S HORSES


There is a reason no players from the Texas Tech football team were selected in this year’s NFL Draft... the majority of the talent is back in 2015. A veteran secondary returns all four starters, while six of the top seven WR’s are back on offense, along with 1K rusher DeAndre Washington and star QB Davis Webb. A tricky schedule finds the Red Raiders opening the season against five teams with winning records in 2014, and then closing out the campaign with five bowl teams in their final five games. Despite the talent on hand, it will all prove meaningless unless Kliff Kingsbury’s crew shores up a rush-unit that has allowed nearly 5 YPR during his tenure. The hire of new DC David Gibbs (Houston Cougars) should help. Not finishing dead last in the nation in penalty yards per game (89.2 in 2014) will help, too.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


Every Red Raider opponent rushed the ball a minimum of 40 attempts during the 2014 season.


WEST VIRGINIA (Offense - 9/3, Defense – 8/2, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: THE SKY’S THE LIMIT


Playing the toughest schedule in school history last season wasn’t almost heaven for West Virginia but the Mountaineers scratched and clawed their way to a bowl game. The bad news is the offense and the defense, together, loses 218 games of starting experience. The good news, though, is they return 321 games (117 on offense; 204 on defense) of starting experience. JR QB Skyler Howard, who replaced an injured Clint Trickett in the Kansas State game and finished the remainder of the season, will be behind center. For an experienced team that improved 89 YPG on offense and 55 YPG on defense, there is no limit to what they can accomplish in 2015. Remember: WVU has averaged more than 4,000 passing yards per season under Dana Holgorsen.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


West Virginia is 21-6 ATS as a conference dog, including 9-0 ATS from Game Ten out.

 

[CNOTES]

2015 Golden Nugget GOY Odds


June 26, 2015


Sportsbook Director Tony Miller and his crew have highlighted specific matchups for all 15 weeks of the regular season.


Opening lines from the Golden Nugget Las Vegas are listed below with neutral sites listed in parenthesis.


Odds Subject to Change - $1,000 Limits


Week 9-16


WEEK 1


Date Away Home


Thursday, Sept. 3 Michigan Utah (-4)


Thursday, Sept. 3 TCU (-18) Minnesota


Friday, Sept. 4 Washington Boise State (-13)


Saturday, Sept. 5 (Arlington, TX) Wisconsin Alabama (-10)


Saturday, Sept. 5 (Atlanta, GA) Louisville Auburn (-11.5)


Saturday, Sept. 5 (Houston, TX) Arizona State Texas A&M (-3)


Saturday, Sept. 5 Texas Notre Dame (-7.5)


Saturday, Sept. 5 Virginia UCLA (-17)


Saturday, Sept. 5 BYU Nebraska (-6)


Monday, Sept. 7 Ohio State (-16) Virginia Tech




WEEK 2


Date Away Home


Saturday, Sept. 12 LSU (-3) Mississippi State


Saturday, Sept. 12 UCLA (-32) UNLV


Saturday, Sept. 12 Oklahoma Tennessee (-3)


Saturday, Sept. 12 Notre Dame (-9) Virginia


Saturday, Sept. 12 Oregon State Michigan (-14)


Saturday, Sept. 12 Iowa (-4.5) Iowa State


Saturday, Sept. 12 Marshall (-3.5) Ohio University


Saturday, Sept. 12 Boise State (-6) BYU


Saturday, Sept. 12 Oregon Michigan State (-1)




WEEK 3


Date Away Home


Thursday, Sept. 17 Clemson (-3) Louisville


Saturday, Sept. 19 Auburn LSU (-4)


Saturday, Sept. 19 UNLV Michigan (-33)


Saturday, Sept. 19 Ole Miss Alabama (-9.5)


Saturday, Sept. 19 South Carolina Georgia (-11)


Saturday, Sept. 19 Georgia Tech Notre Dame (-2)


Saturday, Sept. 19 Nebraska Miami, Fla.(PK)


Saturday, Sept. 19 Stanford USC (-4)


Saturday, Sept. 19 BYU UCLA (-14)


Saturday, Sept. 19 (Denver, CO) Colorado (-1.5) Colorado State




WEEK 4


Date Away Home


Thursday, Sept. 24 Cincinnati Memphis (-2)


Friday, Sept. 25 Boise State (-9) Virginia


Saturday, Sept. 26 LSU (-20) Syracuse


Saturday, Sept. 26 UCLA Arizona (PK)


Saturday, Sept. 26 USC (-1) Arizona


Saturday, Sept. 26 Utah Oregon (-14)


Saturday, Sept. 26 Oklahoma State Texas (-2.5)


Saturday, Sept. 26 BYU Michigan( -7)


Saturday, Sept. 26 (Arlington, Texas) Texas A&M Arkansas (-6.5)


Saturday, Sept. 26 Mississippi State Auburn (-8)


Saturday, Sept. 26 Tennessee (-2.5) Florida




WEEK 5


Date Away Home


Thursday, Oct. 1 Miami, Fla. Cincinnati (-2.5)


Saturday, Oct. 3 UNLV Nevada (-14)


Saturday, Oct. 3 Ole Miss (-6) Florida


Saturday, Oct. 3 Alabama Georgia (PK)


Saturday, Oct. 3 South Carolina Missouri (-11)


Saturday, Oct. 3 Arkansas Tennessee (-1)


Saturday, Oct. 3 Mississippi State Texas A&M (-6.5)


Saturday, Oct. 3 Pittsburgh Virginia Tech (-9)


Saturday, Oct. 3 Arizona Stanford (-7.5)


Saturday, Oct. 3 Arizona State UCLA (-6)


Saturday, Oct. 3 Oregon (-16) Colorado


Saturday, Oct. 3 Army Penn State (-28)


Saturday, Oct. 3 West Virginia Oklahoma (-10)


Saturday, Oct. 3 Kansas State Oklahoma State (-4)


Saturday, Oct. 3 Texas TCU (-21)


Saturday, Oct. 3 Notre Dame Clemson (-3.5)




WEEK 6


Date Away Home


Thursday, Oct. 8 Washington Southern Cal (-19)


Saturday, Oct. 10 LSU (-8) South Carolina


Saturday, Oct. 10 Georgia Tech Clemson (-3)


Saturday, Oct. 10 Arkansas Alabama (-7.5)


Saturday, Oct. 10 Florida Missouri (-10)


Saturday, Oct. 10 Georgia Tennessee (PK)


Saturday, Oct. 10 Miami (FL) Florida State (-14.5)


Saturday, Oct. 10 Virginia Pittsburgh (-6)


Saturday, Oct. 10 Boise State (-12) Colorado State


Saturday, Oct. 10 TCU (-11) Kansas State


Saturday, Oct. 10 (Dallas, TX) Oklahoma (-6.5) Texas


Saturday, Oct. 10 Oklahoma State West Virginia (-5)


Saturday, Oct. 10 Wisconsin (-1) Nebraska


Saturday, Oct. 10 Navy Notre Dame (-14)




WEEK 7


Date Away Home


Thursday, Oct. 15 UCLA Stanford (-4.5)


Thursday, Oct. 15 Auburn (-9) Kentucky


Friday, Oct. 16 UNLV Fresno State (-12)


Friday, Oct. 16 Boise State (-9.5) Utah State


Saturday, Oct. 17 Florida LSU (-14)


Saturday, Oct. 17 Arizona State Utah (-2)


Saturday, Oct. 17 USC Notre Dame (PK)


Saturday, Oct. 17 Oregon (-15) Washington


Saturday, Oct. 17 Louisville Florida State (-12)


Saturday, Oct. 17 Pittsburgh Georgia Tech (-14)


Saturday, Oct. 17 Virginia Tech Miami, Fla. (-6)


Saturday, Oct. 17 Missouri Georgia (-8.5)


Saturday, Oct. 17 Alabama (-7) Texas A&M


Saturday, Oct. 17 West Virginia Baylor (-17)


Saturday, Oct. 17 TCU (-29) Iowa State


Saturday, Oct.17 Oklahoma (-3) Kansas State


Saturday, Oct. 17 Michigan State (-4.5) Michigan


Saturday, Oct. 17 Penn State Ohio State (-19)




WEEK 8


Date Away Home


Saturday, Oct. 24 Utah USC (-7)


Saturday, Oct. 24 Kansas State Texas (-2)


Saturday, Oct. 24 Tennessee Alabama (-10)


Saturday, Oct. 24 Auburn Arkansas (-6.5)


Saturday, Oct. 24 Texas A&M Ole Miss (-4)


Saturday, Oct. 24 Clemson (-4.5) Miami, Fla.


Saturday, Oct. 24 Florida State Georgia Tech (PK)

 

[CNOTES]

2015 Golden Nugget GOY Odds 9-15


June 26, 2015


Odds Subject to Change - $1,000 Limits




WEEK 9


Date Away Home


Thursday, Oct. 29 Oregon (-5) Arizona State


Thursday, Oct. 29 West Virginia TCU (-20)


Saturday, Oct. 31 Boise State (-28.5) UNLV


Saturday, Oct. 31 Central Florida Cincinnati (-6)


Saturday, Oct. 31 Georgia Tech (-10) Virginia


Saturday, Oct. 31 Ole Miss Auburn (-4)


Saturday, Oct. 31 (Jacksonville, FL) Florida Georgia (-12)


Saturday, Oct. 31 South Carolina Texas A&M (-10)


Saturday, Oct. 31 Oregon State Utah (-16)




WEEK 10


Date Away Home


Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2015 Northern Illinois Toledo (-3)


Thursday, Nov. 5 Mississippi State Missouri (-6)


Thursday, Nov. 5 Baylor (-12) Kansas State


Saturday, Nov. 7 LSU Alabama (-9)


Saturday, Nov. 7 Arkansas Ole Miss (-1)


Saturday, Nov. 7 Auburn (-1.5) Texas A&M


Saturday, Nov. 7 TCU (-11) Oklahoma State


Saturday, Nov. 7 Michigan State (-6) Nebraska


Saturday, Nov. 7 Florida State Clemson (-2)


Saturday, Nov. 7 Virginia Miami, Fla. (-6.5)


Saturday, Nov. 7 Notre Dame (-3) Pittsburgh


Saturday, Nov. 7 Arizona USC (-7.5)




WEEK 11


Date Away Home


Thursday, Nov. 12 Virginia Tech Georgia Tech (-9.5)


Friday, Nov. 13 USC (-12) Colorado


Saturday, Nov. 14 Arkansas LSU (-1.5)


Saturday, Nov. 14 Utah Arizona (-3)


Saturday, Nov. 14 Oregon Stanford (PK)


Saturday, Nov. 14 Alabama (-9) Mississippi State


Saturday, Nov. 14 Florida South Carolina (-2.5)


Saturday, Nov. 14 Oklahoma Baylor (-13)


Saturday, Nov. 14 BYU Missouri (-12)




WEEK 12


Date Away Home


Saturday, Nov. 21 San Diego State (-16) UNLV


Saturday, Nov. 21 LSU Ole Miss (PK)


Saturday, Nov. 21 Fresno State BYU (-18)


Saturday, Nov. 21 TCU (-5) Oklahoma


Saturday, Nov. 21 Baylor (-10) Oklahoma State


Saturday, Nov. 21 Michigan State Ohio State (-14)


Saturday, Nov. 21 Michigan Penn State (-4.5)


Saturday, Nov. 21 Mississippi State Arkansas (-10)


Saturday, Nov. 21 Tennessee Missouri (-2.5)


Saturday, Nov. 21 Georgia Tech (-6) Miami, Fla.


Saturday, Nov. 21 Arizona Arizona State (-3)


Saturday, Nov. 21 UCLA -(1) Utah


Saturday, Nov. 21 California Stanford (-13)




WEEK 13


Date Away Home


Friday, Nov. 27 Baylor Colorado (-6)


Friday, Nov. 27 Oregon State Oregon (-22.5)


Friday, Nov. 27 Washington State Washington (-4.5)


Friday, Nov. 27 Iowa Nebraska (-7)


Friday, Nov. 27 Texas A&M LSU (-7.5)


Saturday, Nov. 28 Kansas State (-24) Kansas


Saturday, Nov. 28 Oklahoma (-3) Oklahoma State


Saturday, Nov. 28 BYU Utah State (PK)


Saturday, Nov. 28 Ohio State (-16) Michigan


Saturday, Nov. 28 Penn State Michigan State (-12 )


Saturday, Nov. 28 UCLA USC (-3)


Saturday, Nov. 28 Colorado Utah (-13.5)


Saturday, Nov. 28 Notre Dame Stanford (-3)


Saturday, Nov. 28 North Carolina NC State (-6)


Saturday, Nov. 28 Virginia Tech (-4) Virginia


Saturday, Nov. 28 Missouri Arkansas (-7)


Saturday, Nov. 28 Alabama (-3.5) Auburn


Saturday, Nov. 28 Florida State (-4) Florida


Saturday, Nov. 28 Georgia (-1) Georgia Tech


Saturday, Nov. 28 Louisville (-2.5) Kentucky


Saturday, Nov. 28 Ole Miss (-2) Mississippi


Saturday, Nov. 28 Clemson (-3) South Carolina


Saturday, Nov. 28 Vanderbilt Tennessee (-17)




WEEK 14


Date Away Home


Saturday, Dec. 5 Texas Baylor (-18)


Saturday, Dec. 5 West Virginia Kansas State (-5)




WEEK 15


Date Away Home


Saturday, Dec. 12 (Philadelphia, PA) Navy (-13) Army

 

[CNOTES]

2015 Conference USA Preview


June 28, 2015


C-USA 2015 Conference USA Football Preview


Bizarre World Of The Conference USA


In December last year UAB president Ray Watts announced that he shutting down the football program, stirring a high level of hatred toward the school's administration.


Seven months later Watts asked for and received a mulligan when school boosters agreed to support the program. As a result the Blazers will re-join the C-USA next season after a one-year hiatus.


Through it all the league will operate with 13 teams for the 2015 season, with a large portion of UAB players and coaches now scattered among opposing conference foe rosters this campaign.


Bowling For Dollars


C-USA sent five teams to bowl games in 2014. The league finished 4-1 in bowls, giving the league a 15-6 SU and 13-7-1 ATS mark the past four seasons in postseason play.


No other FBS conference owns a higher bowl win percentage than the C-USA the last four years.


Globetrotters


Speaking of non-conference play, stepping outside the conference, members will play 22 regular season games against foes from the Big Ten, the Big 12 and the SEC.


In head-to-head games against these three super conferences, the CUSA stands 47-236 SU and 124-151-5 ATS since the inception the conference, including a super-scary 2-131 SU and 44-91-2 ATS in games in which they fail to score 17 points.


Against all other non-conference foes the loop stands 392-361 SU overall.


Turnover Forcing Machines


Two years ago C-USA produced three of the top five teams in the FBS in forcing turnovers in 2013 with Tulane, North Texas and Middle Tennessee State finishing tied for 2nd, 4th and tied for 5th respectively.


It was more of the same last season when Louisiana Tech led the nation in turnovers gained (42), while Florida International ranked 4th (33).


Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.




CHARLOTTE (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 9/4, 55 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: TENDER FOOTS


Back in the day when a team’s schedule included the likes of Charlotte, Presbyterian and UTSA, they were either Kansas State or a Division-II school. Nowadays, teams of this ilk are everywhere, landing in conferences simply for the newfound dollars. The newest spring chicken, the 49ers, makes their FBS debut, fast-tracking from a program that launched as an FCS Independent in 2013 into the C-USA in 2015. Head coach Brad Lambert and his 10-man staff have 115 years of collegiate coaching experience. Aside from 17 returning starters, the Niners also have a handful of transfers who sat out last year, plus three potential starters who missed 2014 with injuries.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


In the 49ers’ first two seasons, freshmen and sophomores made up an average 15.55 of the 22 starting positions.






FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 6/3, 32 Lettermen)


Tean Theme: COME ON, GET HAPPY


Year One of the Charlie Partridge era saw the Owls regress on both sides of the ball. The good news is Partridge welcomes the second-best recruiting class in C-USA to the family, including six 3-star newcomers. For any progress to happen, though, the former defensive line assistant for Bret Bielema at Arkansas and Wisconsin will need to address FAU’s slippage against the run last year (-60 RYPG and -1.2 DYPR). The offense is keyed by double-threat QB Jaquez Johnson who tossed for 2,215 and rushed for 599 yards, leading the team both in the air and on the ground – making him the lead singer of this Partridge family.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


The underdog was 10-0 ATS in the Owls final ten games last season.






FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (Offense – 7/3, Defense – 8/3, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: PUSHING BACK


There were supposed to be giant strides forward for the Golden Panthers last season. It was Ron Turner’s third year on the sidelines, with 17 returning starters and a pair of cupcakes to open the campaign. And then as fast as you can say Bethune-Cookman, it all fell apart in a stunning season-opening home loss to the Wildcats. A win over Wagner the following week proved to be the only game in which the Panthers would out yard an opponent all season (now just 2-22 ‘In The Stats’ in games under Turner). For Turner’s sake, here’s hoping a behemoth OL will push a now suddenly experienced young group back to the glory days of 2011.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


The Panthers were the nation’s most improved scoring offense in 2014, going from 9.8 to 23.0 PPG last season, a 134.7% change.




LOUISIANA TECH (Offense – 7/3, Defense – 6/3, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: SKIP FORWARD


After a dismal 4-8 losing season in 2013, the Bulldogs bounced back with a 9-win bowl season last year. The mission this year will be to repeat the feat and become the first La Tech squad to make it to back-to-back bowl games since 1977-78. They’ll need to do it without Manny Diaz (former Texas DC), who was lured away by Mississippi State in the offseason. The good news is QB Jeff Driskel, former starter at Florida, transfers in. Handing the ball to star RB Kenneth Dixon – owner of the school’s rushing and scoring records – and tossing to impact WRs Trent Taylor and Paul Turner should find Skip Holtz going back to the future in 2015.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


The Bulldogs led the nation in points off turnovers (172) last season.




MARSHALL (Offense - 6/3, Defense – 5/1, 56 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: MARSHALL LAW


So where does the Herd go from here? After pulverizing C-USA foes last year, Marshall faces huge losses at key positions in 2015, starting with the record-setting combination of QB Rakeem Cato and WR Tommy Shuler. Also gone are all-conference center Chris Japerse, the team’s top three defensive linemen and three of its four top linebackers. Thank goodness head coach Doc Holliday has recruited his you-know-what off as a bevy of 3 and 4-star talent steps to the forefront, including 3 QBs and 10 wide receivers. And the Herd is absolutely loaded at RB with a trio of backs who rushed for 3,111 yards last year returning to Huntington. Stay tuned.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


Marshall will take on the easiest schedule of all FBS teams in 2014 with foes a combined 54-89 last season.




MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 8/3, 45 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: MORE STOCK OPTIONS


Last year MTSU won six games but was left at the altar by the bowl committee. If you think it doesn’t register with head coach Rick Stockstill then think again. He‘s appeared in 19 bowl games as a player and a coach in his career, so rest assured he’ll have this squad motivated to the max to make it 20. “We had a really good offseason... I really liked the leadership that surfaced,” says Stockstill. The offense is in good hands with his top two QB’s returning, and 87 games worth of experience from a deep running back corps. The two-deep ‘D’ boasts five seniors at both the linebacker and secondary positions. Expect a race to the wire in the C-USA East.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


The Blue Raiders are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in conference road openers the past six seasons.




NORTH TEXAS (Offense - *5/1, Defense – 6/2, 37 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BACK FROM REALITY


Yes, it was nice while it lasted. After winning nine games in 2013, things quickly turned lean for the Mean Green last season. It was to be expected. After all, you don’t go from an 8-time loser to winning a bowl game and expect to win again when you lose your starting quarterback, rusher, two wide receivers, tight end, six of your defensive front seven, your best defensive back and a superstar return man. Especially behind a defense that smelled to hell and back on the highway where they went 0-6 SU and ATS, and were out yarded 148 YPG last year. Hey at least there is always Apogee Stadium.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


After going 1-16 the three previous seasons, UNT is 16-7 at Apogee Stadium the past five seasons under Dan McCarney.


OLD DOMINION (Offense – 8/3, Defense – 4/1, 36 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: OUT OF HEINICKE


It was a new day at Old Dominion last year when the Monarchs made their initial foray into FBS waters. Head coach Bobby Wilder has been with ODU since its inception, building the program from the ground up, winning 52 games since its rebirth in 2009. The Monarchs started 3-0 and finished 3-1 last season to salvage a 6-6 season. They will be put to the test this year, however, as four-year starting QB Taylor Heinicke – a Walter Payton award winner and 15,000 yard passer – is gone. So too is ODU’s all-conference center, and seven starters on defense (four from the front seven). Life before Heinicke was good. It should remain status quo under Wilder.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


Old Dominion has never suffered a losing season under head coach Bobby Wilder.




RICE (Offense - *6/3, Defense – 4/2, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: CLICK IN NOVEMBER...BOWL IN DECEMBER


The formula for David Bailiff has been a simple one: concentrate on winning games in November and be rewarded in December. And it’s worked. His Owls stand 22-10 SU and 20-12 ATS in regular season games from November out, which coincides with a 3-1 SUATS mark in four December bowl games. Last year’s team made it three straight bowl appearances for the first time in school history. Granted, Rice crackled and was popped by quality teams last season (0-4 SU versus .600 or better foes) but they still became a history-making squad in the process. With a loaded backfield returning intact, the Owls are looking forward to another November to remember.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


Last year marked the first time since 1948-50 that the Owls have had three winning seasons is a row.




SOUTHERN MISS (Offense – *9/5, Defense – 4/2, 59 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: CLEARING UP A BAD COMPLEXION


Talk about falling off the map. After sporting a winning record every year from 1994 to 2011 – reaching its crescendo when USM captured the C-USA title in 2011 – then-coach Larry Fedora saw the handwriting on the wall and bailed. The not-so-Golden Eagles stunningly went 1-23 during 2012-13 (they ‘improved’ to 3-9 in 2014). So what exactly has happened to a program that reeled off 18 winning seasons in a row and now swims with the fishes at the bottom of Lake Rotten? We’ll learn a lot more this year, especially after watching 22 players make their Division-1 debut last season (third most in the nation). Thank goodness for Clearasil.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


The Golden Eagles are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games as favorites.




UTEP (Offense – 6/4, Defense – 5/3, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: NO MINER ACCIDENT


It was no accident that the Miners suddenly improved leaps and bounds last football season, going from a 2-win squad to a bowler. After fighting through inexperience, injuries and depth issues in 2013, Sean Kugler’s troops parlayed a year of healing and force-feeding to land a bowl bid. However, UTEP was pushed around mightily by fellow bowl teams in the process – going 0-5 SU while losing the stats by an average of 115 YPG. This season they will face the second softest schedule in the land, with this year’s foes owning a 56-91 combined overall record in 2014 – which perhaps may find them favored in games they should not be. You know what to do.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


The Miners are 6-43-1 SU and 12-36-1 ATS in the last 50 games in which they have been outgained in the stats.




UTSA (Offense – 2/1, Defense – 4/0, 32 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: GONE WITH THE WIND


After leading UTSA to 23 wins in its first four seasons, two-time National Coach of the Year Larry Coker is not sleeping well these nights. Like Mother Hubbard, he finds the cupboard completely bare thin 2015. Senior Day ran overtime at UTSA last year as no less than 38 seniors dotted the roster. And like the Texas wind, they’re gone. Now Coker must rebuild for the first time ever with this fledgling program. Thankfully, 13 early enrollees join 25 signees to fill the 38 slots of departed seniors. But even with eleven 3-star players, including former Michigan QB Russell Bellomy and Oklahoma WR Dannon Cavil, Coker might ponder retirement sooner than expected.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


Coker is 11-1-1 ATS in his career as a dog versus greater-than .750 opponents.





WESTERN KENTUCKY (Offense - *7/3, Defense – 9/4, 53 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: KING OF THE HILL


What a year it was. In 2014 the Hilltoppers broke or tied 50 individual and team records, while also becoming the first FBS team with a 4,500-yard passer (Brandon Doughty) and a 1,500-yard rusher (Leon Allen). Their 6,672 total yards were also the most in FBS history (532 more than the 2011 RGIII-led Baylor Bears). Not that they need any incentive: Doughty and Allen were unbelievably relegated to all-CUSA 2nd team status by a leading football publication, and they’re back for more in 2015. Through it all, headman Jeff Brohm was the only first-year coach in the nation to guide his team to a bowl win last season. What a year it was, indeed.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE:


WKU QB Brandon Doughty has not thrown an interception at home since Oct 15, 2013 – a span of 388 passing attempts.

 

[CNOTES]

Analyzing Golden Nugget Openers


July 1, 2015




The Golden Nugget released its spreads for 166 college football Games of the Year this past Friday. The Nugget is annually the first betting shop in Las Vegas to posts these lines, limiting gamblers to six plays with a maximum bet of 'a dime' ($1,000 in gambling vernacular) before requiring them to go to the back of the line.


I found it interesting that Alabama clearly isn't getting the respect it has been given by oddsmakers over the last few years. My personal numbers for the Crimson Tide are much richer than those sent out by The Nugget for several games. For instance, I made Nick Saban's team a 13-point home favorite vs. Ole Miss, but TGN opened the Tide as a 9.5-point home 'chalk' to the Rebels.


I also feel like Auburn isn't getting the respect it deserves coming into 2015. Nick Marshall is gone, but Jeremy Johnson might end up being an upgrade. Johnson, a true junior who has a 9/2 career touchdown-to-interception ratio, will undoubtedly bring improvement to the Tigers' aerial attack. Although he doesn't possess the running skills of Marshall, he has incredible size and will be tough for would-be sackers to bring down.


I'll even go a step further with Johnson. This is certainly a strong statement and perhaps a bit of a reach, but I believe he's capable of having a 2010 Cam Newton type of season. Johnson has one of the country's best play-callers in Gus Malzahn and perhaps the SEC's premier down-the-field threat in wide receiver Duke Williams.


I feel like Arkansas and Mississippi St. are being given too much respect, especially the Bulldogs. Dan Mullen's team returns only seven total starters. Granted, one of those is Heisman Trophy candidate Dak Prescott, but he won't have the benefit of a veteran offensive line or the services of dynamic running back Josh Robinson, who bolted for the NFL a year early after enjoying a monster 2014 campaign.


If Dan Mullen can keep Mississippi St. out of the SEC West cellar (not exactly the most shameful place to reside, by the way), he will have done an excellent coaching job in 2015. Of the 166 games posted, my top play is Auburn as an eight-point home favorite to the Bulldogs. This is a huge revenge game for AU after getting blasted in Starkville last year. I made the Tigers 15-point favorites in that spot and will be completely stunned if they aren't double-digit 'chalk' vs. MSU.


Let's go back to Arkansas, which had one of the best 7-6 campaigns you'll ever witness in 2014. Bret Beliema's squad improved by four games after Year 1 netted an abysmal 3-9 mark. However, those seven wins don't do justice to how much the Razorbacks improved. They easily could've won 10 games, losing once in overtime (vs. Texas A&M) and by one (to Alabama due to a missed PAT). Beliema's bunch also allowed second-half leads to get away at Mississippi St. and at Missouri.


Arkansas somehow opened as a 6.5-point home favorite vs. Auburn. This turned out to be one of three games TGN ended up moving by five points. Before Friday's betting action was completed, the Razorbacks were favored by just 1.5 points.


Arkansas will have two weeks to prepare for Auburn, but I feel like that advantage is negated to some extent because AU plays at Kentucky the previous Thursday. Although the Tigers won't have two full weeks to prep for the Hogs, they will have two extra days of rest themselves. My line for AU-Arky is pick 'em.


Arkansas was also involved in another game moved five points by TGN, which opened the Razorbacks as 6.5-point favorites for their annual showdown against Texas A&M at Jerry World in Arlington. The Aggies rallied from a 28-14 second-half deficit to force overtime and beat the Hogs last year. I made Arkansas a 3.5-point fave in this matchup and after lots of action on Kevin Sumlin's squad, TGN eventually moved the number down to 1.5.


The other game featuring a five-point move was for Boise St. at BYU. The Broncos opened as six-point road favorites, but they are now one-point 'chalk.'


Sticking with BSU, the enormous -270 favorite to win the Mountain West Conference at 5Dimes, it opened as a 13-point home favorite for its opener against Washington and former coach Chris Petersen. But the action came fast on the Huskies, who are down to 8.5-point road underdogs for their trip to the smurf turf.


In its first year under Bryan Harsin, Boise St. compiled a 12-2 straight-up record and an 8-6 against-the-spread ledger. The Broncos beat BYU by a 55-30 count at home and ended the season on a nine-game winning streak, including a 38-30 triumph over Arizona as three-point underdogs in the Fiesta Bowl.


BSU now has three Fiesta Bowl wins on its school history's resume. Don't be shocked if it is in another New Year's Day Bowl in 2015, assuming it doesn't work its way into the College Football Playoff. Harsin's team returns nine starters on offense and eight on defense, and that doesn't count senior DE Tyler Horn, who was a returning starter in 2014 but tore his ACL in a season-opening loss to Ole Miss.


In Week 4, BSU ventures to the East Coast for a Friday Night showdown at Virginia. TGN opened the Broncos as nine-point favorites against the Cavaliers. They are also favored at Colorado St. (opened -12, now -10.5), at Utah St. (opened -9.5, now -6) and at UNLV (-28.5). If form holds for the Week 2 showdown in Provo against the Cougars, BSU will almost certainly be favored in every game this year.


Ohio St. and TCU join Boise St. as the only teams (beyond those that have just one lined game) that are favored in every contest. The Buckeyes are actually double-digit 'chalk' in each game, favored by 12.5 or more every time. They are -16 at Va. Tech, -19 vs. Penn St., -12.5 vs. Michigan St. and -13 at Michigan. The number for the game against the Spartans is too rich. In fact, 5Dimes has Urban Meyer's squad favored by only seven.


TCU returns 15 total starters (10 offense, 5 defense) from a 12-1 team that suffered its lone loss by a 61-58 score at Baylor. The Horned Frogs blew a 21-point four-quarter lead in Waco, but they responded by winning their last eight games, including three blowouts of ranked teams like the 42-3 shellacking of Ole Miss administered at the Ga. Dome.


TGN opened Gary Patterson's squad as a double-digit favorite in six of its eight games. TCU is favored by five at Oklahoma and by six vs. Baylor.


Let's go back to Alabama, which has been favored in 68 consecutive games. That streak is in jeopardy for an Oct. 3 game at Georgia where TGN has it as a pick 'em. The Tide was a single-digit fave in six games last season, limping to a 2-4 spread record with a pair of outright defeats. In its nine listed games this year, 'Bama opened a double-digit favorite only twice. The Tide started -10 for both its opener vs. Wisconsin and its home game against Tennessee. The seven other opening numbers were single digits.


That's a huge adjustment from previous Alabama teams. I get the uncertainty with so many key offensive parts like Amari Cooper and T.J. Yeldon gone, but I will give Saban the benefit of the doubt until I see reasons to think the Tide is doomed for a significant drop-off in 2015.


Only three starters on offense and seven on defense are back. The quarterback position is a question mark, as is the offensive line for the first time in a long time. Alabama might go with redshirt freshman David Cornwell over Jacob Coker in the QB competition. These are all legit concerns


But hasn't Saban proven time and again that he'll have his team ready to perform at an elite level? Derrick Henry is going to have a monster season. The defense will be nasty yet again. Saban will get things figured out on the o-line. The only way I can see Alabama winning nine games or fewer is if the QB situation becomes an unmitigated disaster. Otherwise, this will again be a team that goes into the Iron Bowl with a shot at getting to the CFP.


Speaking of the Auburn-Alabama battle, that number opened at -3.5 in favor of the Tide. However, the line is now -2.5.