ope:
First of all I am a chop fan and understand the value thing but what i am saying is I think he explained it wrong if he gives his opinion on chances of winning on two teams the probability of lets say Team 1 a 40% chance to win and the other, team 2 a 50% chance -Then he thinks the probability that one team will win should be 90% based on 40 +50
if one game has 50% of winning and another 40%, the chance of at least of one them hitting is as follows:
50% of the time game A will hit.
The remaining 50% of times it will not, and from that 50% we will be saved 40% of times by game B, 40 x 50/100 = 20%
Therefore we will hit at least one of both 70% of the time.
Chop was right, this is the math so that u see how fucked up parlays are.
If 2 games have 70% of winning, the chance of both winning is only 70% of 70, which is 49% of the time.
50% of the time game A will hit.
The remaining 50% of times it will not, and from that 50% we will be saved 40% of times by game B, 40 x 50/100 = 20%
Therefore we will hit at least one of both 70% of the time.
Chop was right, this is the math so that u see how fucked up parlays are.
If 2 games have 70% of winning, the chance of both winning is only 70% of 70, which is 49% of the time.
The exact math with one 40% game and another 50% game is as follows:
Prob of 2 wins is 0.4 * 0.5 = 0.2
Prob of exactly 1 win is 0.4 * (1-0.5) + 0.5 *(1-0.4) = 0.2+0.3 = 0.5
Prob of no wins is (1-0.4) * (1-0.5) = 0.3
Thus there is 0.2 + 0.5 or a 70% chance of EITHER winning one of the two games OR winning both.
Prob of 2 wins is 0.4 * 0.5 = 0.2
Prob of exactly 1 win is 0.4 * (1-0.5) + 0.5 *(1-0.4) = 0.2+0.3 = 0.5
Prob of no wins is (1-0.4) * (1-0.5) = 0.3
Thus there is 0.2 + 0.5 or a 70% chance of EITHER winning one of the two games OR winning both.
