CFB Week 2

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Early thoughts:

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This line already moved 1.5 points. Will monitor it in case the line bounces back, but I think UTEP should win this SU.

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This line should be dropping as the week progresses due to the Bobcats' upset. I think UTSA can easily cover a 1-TD line.

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I'd like to take this line early in case it drops under the TD.

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The line is moving in favor of Alabama. Will monitor this one as well.

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How come this line moved in favor of So. Miss after what we saw last night?

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-5.5 is still good enough for the Utes.

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Overreaction!! Nebraska under Rhule should be the favorite in this game.
 

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Utah -5.5 -110

Take the line before it goes over a TD
 

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Nebraska +3.5 -113
 

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Some injury updates:

-Baylor QB Blake Shapen is expected to miss 2-3 week with a MCL injury. Sawyer
Robertson will get the start vs Utah.

Confirmed. Adds slightly more value to our play.

-James Madison QB Jordan McCloud will start this week.
-Virginia QB Tony Muskett (shoulder) is questionable vs James Madison.

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Virginia was inoperant at offense last week at Tennessee with and without Muskett. Think JMU is an underrated team and books still don't reflect their actual level.

-5.5 is a line I may eventually play but will wait for news on UVA's QB in case the line bounces back a bit.
 

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Some write-up about the San Jose St - Cal Poly game.

I follow the Spartans very closely and watch almost every snap.

Brent Brennan has the most talented team he's had in his 7-year tenure at SJ.
In the week 1 thread I posted some in-game thoughts, despite playing a top-15 team, most fans think they're wasting the talent.

The staff is terrible, especially the defensive coordinator who has very few packages easing for the foes the read of where the pressure is going to come from.

This game against an FCS opponent is going to be crucial for the season and the staff that could be buying a firing at the end of the season.

I've done some research about the opponent, Cal Poly:

The QB is Sam Huard a 5* recruit. He is the son of Damon Huard(former UW qb) and nephew of Brock Huard (another former UW qb and current Fox analyst).

He transferred from UW after barely playing for 2 seasons. Also, the coach who originally recruited him (Jimmy Lake) got fired. 247 rated him as a 4* transfer.
Heard that he's super inaccurate, so that should pay off against a Spartans secondary with plenty of talent.

Cal Poly beat USD 27-10 with Huard throwing for 324 yds with 1 TD and 1 int. SD QB only 145 yds passing but had 10 carries for 41 yds. He was also sacked 6 times.
Mustangs did most of their damage by a guy who played TE last season but now playing WR at 6’1 235 lbs this season. He had 129 yds and 1 td with a long reception of 37. They also had a 87 yd passing play. Poly only had 92 yds rushing and 48 of that came off of 2 plays.

USD starting RB had 22 carries for 96 yds so SJSU RB’s should eat well, especially with the size difference between Spartans OLine and Mustangs' DLine.


Special teams should be a big weapon for Spartans IF they actually return kicks instead of fair catching. Poly's kickoff guy was 0/6 on touchbacks and only averaged 46.3 yds per kickoff. Their FG kicker made it from 41 and 45 and missed from 49. Their punter only averaged 37.3 yds as well so Mustangs specialists are not really a strength.

Poly's players are mostly young. So size is going to be a key. DLine is smaller and their OLine will not be able to do what USC and especially Oregon State did to the Spartans. SJSU should score at will.

Conclusion: waiting for the line of this game (released today?) and hoping books overvalue CP's 5* recruit and set a smaller line given that SJSU comes off 2 huge losses. SJSU has a season finale in this game with the Staff in the hot seat.

I'd love to see a line under a TD, but even a 2 or 3 TD line should be manageable.
 

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Play for this night:

Illinois +3.5 -105

Still waiting for books to release lines on Cal Poly/SJSU
 

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More plays for tomorrow:

Alabama -7 -110
Wisconsin -6 -105 (GOW)
Rice +9.5 -108
Va. Tech -2.5 -110
Pitt -7 -105
Cal +6.5 -110
NC St +7.5 -109

There are two 6pt teasers I like:
- Wisky pk & Bama -1
- Cal +12.5 & Rice +15.5
 

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UTSA -13.5 -109

tbh, I thought this line was going to move in favor of TxSt, under 2 TDs is still a good line
 

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- Kansas was strong for most part of the game. He got relaxed in garbage time (the last 20 mins of the game) allowing 2 TD. I'd like to play them as an underdog in Big 12 play. They have a weak opponent next week, so given this relaxation, I'll take care of picking up huge favorite handicaps from Kansas as they could suffer a backdoor cover. Jalon Daniels looked great, moving like a pro in the pocket.
- Don't make mistake with Luke Altmyer, he had a large run TD, yes, but he made up his performance in garbage time. He threw 2 ints (1 was the fault of the WR) and some inaccurate passes as well as a poor awareness in the pocket that ended up in receiving 6 sacks. The OLine didn't help a lot.
Illinois defense strength is in the front-7 and weakness is the secondary. They can really suffer against teams with mobile QBs that escape well from the pressure. The secondary play was really poor on M2M.
 

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I thought this line was going to be lower, but still, the Spartans should sweep the Mustangs from the field and score easily to grab a 4-TD+ win.

San Jose St -22.5 -110

Game info
 

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Nebraska versus Colorado first half thoughts:



Nebraska front 7 is really strong making Sanders Jr to be very uncomfortable quite often.

Huskers secondary is also doing a very good job in coverage.



The Buffaloes defense is looking much better than they were last week against TCU. They are showing better fundamentals.



I also think that Nebraska has some issues with the Special Teams. Some punts that have not been acceptable and also a field goal missed from an easy distance.



After the Nebraska turnover I was able to see something in Sanders Jr. he's not been very confident or at least not as the last week against TCU. I'm not seeing him throwing mid and large distance throws. The play call is also seeming to be a bit more conservative in order to protect him. But this could change in the second half.





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Nebraska's quarterback has thrown an interception that has been really stupid because it was a very easy to read for the defender. Colorado scored in the very next play. I think it was not an easy spot for the defense



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On Baylor/Utah:



the Utes are struggling to move the chains. I am seeing a lot of miscues in Offense and defense. some things that I didn't see last week where played really strong football so I'm not sure what happened in midweek but they are especially struggling to st

op the the Run.
 

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HT betting:

Taking Huskers+12.5 and Huskers ML +450
 

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Wow, Husker's D energy levels dropped dramatically in the 2nd half. They started to miss tackles and not putting pressure.
Ball protection has been terrible. I think Sanders outcoached Rhule.
 

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Very nice drive by Nate Johnson. Beautiful throws and quick releases.

Actually:

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Utah covered. This should have been a much easier game for them: Think they'll figure out how to be better next week, seems they found a true QB1. The defense is really strong.
 

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Looking for Baylor to be a better team as the season progresses. Some miscues under center but they fought during 3 quarters.
 

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