CFB Week 1

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Posting here week 1 plays
 

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South Alabama +6.5 -110
 

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Western Kentucky -12 -110
Wyoming +14 -110
Iowa -23.5 -110
Purdue Team Total Under 24.5 -115
Under 63.5 Colorado/TCU
North Texas +6.5 -109
UTSA -2 -110
Temple -9.5 -112
Baylor -27.5 -110
 

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FBS vs FCS leans:

Bryant +16.5 -110

Oregon -49 -113
Air Force -45.5 -113
 

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Tough Saturday:

3-7 FBS

1-2 FBS vs FCS leans
 

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Some learnings:

  • TCU had a preseason ranking much higher than it should be. Its defense was destroyed by Deion Sanders's son. Had all day to throw thanks to a great OL.
  • I definitely underestimated Utah State. The defense did a great job especially the DLine holding the Hawkeye's rushing offense to 88 yards in 36 carries (2.4 avg). The Hawkeyes' playcalling was really poor. Mostly one-dimensional wanting to run between tackles after struggle several times.
  • I underestimated Tulane as well (thought they were ranked too high). Michael Pratt looked really great. Had good protection a good supporting cast from the rushing game and the receiving corps (Jha'Quan Jackson looked awesome). So. Bama struggled in the scrimmage line. Carter Bradley got sacked 5 times and was pressured in most plays. The rushing game was poor with a 2.3 avg. Tulane is definitely a true top 25.
  • Western Kentucky can have a great offense again this season. Austin Reed was solid at QB. The defense has an awesome Edge rusher in JaQues Evans who stripped the ball from the hands of Byrum Brown to score a TD. They have a proficient rushing game so this team has the pieces to contend for the CUSA. Think that this team will be more competitive week by week under Alex Golesh. He has talent under center and some skill players. But it's a project that needs to mature a bit.
  • I had an eye on the Tennessee game. Joe Milton and the offense looked impressive playing at half-speed. This offense can be really powerful. They barely used Bru McCoy (a great WR transferred from USC). The point is that they rushed 52 times vs 33 passes. They eat the clock. If totals are too high in the following games the under could be something to look at.
  • Baylor. WTH? The defense is terrible. They missed tons of tackles. Secondary looked lost and confused. Pretty much like LBs that fell into coverage. QB play didn't seem to be consistent despite throwing for 416 yards. Blake Sharpen looked better than Sawyer Robertson. That has to be a concern if there's no something better on the bench. I mean, Texas St QB TJ Finley was impressive and they might have had the game of the year if not the decade. Looking to fade them next week if the spread is inflated. Baylor situation is really worrying.
 

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  • UTSA's defense was really great. They had 417 total yards on offense! But 4-17 in 3rd downs and penalties (8-64) made it difficult to convert yards into points. Looking for discipline to be better in the coming weeks. Frank Harris had a bad day throwing 3 INTs. This should change. Will keep an eye on the UTSA line next week vs. Texas ST.
  • UCLA has an awesome defense. The DLine lived all day in the Chanticleers' backfield. 5* True frosh QB Dante Moore played his first game showing lights and shadows. I think Chip Kelly is still protecting him, but he'll be great by the end of the season.
  • BYU seems to have an improved defense. Playcalling was poor, with predictable plays. I'm also not a big fan of Kedon Slovis. Sam Houston did a great job stopping the Cougars' rush offense. Think they can be competitive in some CUSA games.
  • Wyoming! Loved that play as I thought the Raiders were overvalued and they absolutely were. Craig Bohl is a great HC, he gets the most from his players' talent. Optimizes the opportunities gotten from the rival. This is an opportunistic team. Expect another upset when playing against erratic or undisciplined teams. Not sure if they can be MWC contenders.
  • Va.Tech played half-speed for most part of the game. OLine looked impressive. Grant Wells had all day to throw. Might need some help from the rushing game which struggled (43-109-2.5) to perform against top teams. ODU has a powerful weapon under center in Grant Wilson. He's a mobile QB with an acceptable arm. Needs some help from OLine. It was a nice performance thinking it was his first start ever in CFB, away against a Power 5 team. Seemed to be very confident. ODU is a team to track in the following weeks.
  • Had higher expectations of NTU under Eric Morris, but I think he has a lack of talent on offense. He'll need some weeks to either find it or develop the current roster. The rushing offense was trash (27 - 41 - 1.5). The defense was not able to put pressure on or cover any part of the field. On the other side, Cal looked really great (especially having Auburn next week). Jayden Ott had an impressive day, Finley looked mostly solid and the defense was opportunistic. Justin Wilcox did it well not allowing the moving from PAC-12 to be a distraction.
  • Akron/Temple. Zips had a nice first half thanks to a slow start from the Owls. They eventually dominated the game until realized that the rushing game didn't work. Expect them to improve a bit next week. Liked what I saw from an Akron team I underestimated. DJ Irons could be a nice weapon for the Zips but needs more help from the OLine. HC Joe Moorhead is an offensive mind in his 2nd year after a 2-10 season. This is probably another rebuild season for them but I look for the Zips to improve and be competitive in some MAC games.

 

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Side notes on FBS vs. FCS games:
  • Oregon was a steamroller. That mindset is what you look for when trying to cover huge spreads.
  • Thought that Bryant was gonna be more competitive. They have QB Doug Brumfield back and healthy. Also got a Pittsburgh transfer RB. Expected them to be very excited and motivated to play in an NFL stadium.
 

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Rutgers -6 -103
 

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Florida St +2.5 -112
 

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Rutgers' first half has been very consistent, dominating both sides of the football (but kicker).
They started to chew the time clock after having a 2-score advantage. (good to know for future games where they can take the lead)
Wimsatt is inconsistent sometimes despite having good protection. Wildcats DLine doing a good job holding Rutgers rushing offense under 4 ypr.

The defense is hitting hard, pressing, not missing tackles, and showing strong fundamentals.

That stop in the fake punt showed how the guys are focused and "doing their job". Schiano's close relationship with Belichick is paying dividends.

I hope Schiano can keep the team motivated for the 2nd half and avoid any relaxation while they keep chewing the game clock.
 

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Nice effort in the 2nd part. Ball control and a great win. Looking forward to seeing the line against Temple next Saturday.

Wildcats offense was sterile most part of the game (just scored a TD in garbage time).
 

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WR Nick Nash (former SJST QB) scored 3 TDs vs USC last week. Had a couple of receptions early in the game. Seems he will be the go-to guy for Cordeiro this year. Will look at player props in the following games.

Spartans running game is surprisingly working fine.

EDITED: Nash just threw a pizza in a trick play. It demonstrates why he was removed from the QB position :ROFLMAO:
EDITED2: The first quarter didn't even end and Brennan already spent the 3 timeouts ?
 

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Nice insights Box, but we are on opp sides in LSU game. Have a great season.
 

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Nice insights Box, but we are on opp sides in LSU game. Have a great season.
Thanks! It should be a great (and close) game between two top teams so I expect a one-score game. In that situation, I usually prefer to take the points.

FSU is also the 2nd most experienced team in the nation. They lost 3 close games last year but were the best in the ACC with +165 ypg while LSU had some comebacks and finished -5 ypg in SEC play. So I think FSU is a bit underrated and LSU a bit overrated.

Will see tonight if I'm wrong ?
 

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Halftime feelings in Oregon St/San Jose St game:

  • OSU's D is doing great. They are doing an excellent job, especially in coverage. They're fast and have an excellent tackling technique.
  • SJST's D is not that bad, they just need to press more and make some adjustments in coverage (I'd prefer more zone-cov in this kind of game).
  • Brennan has to make Cordeiro take more risks in the 2nd half in order to fight for the game. Cordeiro has a respectable arm and the first half has been plenty of power rushes and short passes. If this adjustment happens, we can see more risky situations such as INTs, sacks, and fumbles. But that's the way to challenge OSU's D IMHO.
 

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I don't understand the Spartans playcalling. How come you brought a mobile QB and you barely do options, QB runs, or a simple QB sneak (in 4&1)?
tbf Beavers's coverage, pursuit, and tackling are insane. but you're helping by calling bad plays from the band.
 

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3rd & 15 at SJSU 31 yd line - 3 guys rushing. 8 in deep coverage. Jeremiah Noga receives alone in the endzone after Uiagalelei had ALL DAY to throw. There's something wrong with that D.
 

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