Capping MLB 2007 #101a Ov/Un plus Las Vegas Q&A

[pops69]

when you scalp do you do it to make $$ either way or more on one side so if the other wins you break even?

also what do you do if the line moves against you.....do you wait until the game time then buy back at a loss? Did scalping last year but since Pinny and Mansion left those days are gone for now. I tried my hand at betting openers and anticipating line moves but sometimes it worked and other times it moved the other way against me. Funny I read on this site and others brag about their scalps but you never hear the ones that go against you if you guess wrong.

you have to really watch out for the guessing which games are going to move, yes i did i the couple above, but you can always expect that from a couple of the no way they can lose teams that most will be betting. the best way is to shop at OS that move slower that others, lock in the lower number after a line move first that pick up the plus on the other. it will almost always be a fav moving to a larger fav. and any ML bet on any sport is fine. boxing move a bunch so can find some there. and college bb will have a bunch as well, but much lower bet limites. you can win money on both sides by adjusting your bet size, you will win on every game but not as much as if one dog win. the link below does not have everything about it but will give you the general idea

http://www.majorwager.com/guide/sports-book-strategies.htm

 

[spesh]

pops...buddy of mine working on a spider program for our books..if he can get it running it will be a great tool for us to use..as i get updates on his progress i will let you know..and get you set up.

 

[pops69]

pops...buddy of mine working on a spider program for our books..if he can get it running it will be a great tool for us to use..as i get updates on his progress i will let you know..and get you set up.

guess who asked him to do it. i also got an ex microsoft guys writing one in pearl

 

[pops69]

Pops why is that? And is IL for 2 weeks straight?

from today thru jun 24th

 

[ILMW]

from today thru jun 24th

F'n great.

 

[pops69]

guys, check the notifications in the ftp, one of the best i've ever seen today, some of you should be able to take a decent shot

dam this is fun shit

 

[pops69]

they finally moved the line, but have nyy +1- for -265, and have only bet pitt for a small amount on the cover, i believe the ML for them straight out might to to over +265 so i'll just hang for a while and wait for all those east coast ass holes and tout services to release on them, plus everyone here will be betting the yanks to win at home as well

 

[patswin]

they finally moved the line, but have nyy +1- for -265, and have only bet pitt for a small amount on the cover, i believe the ML for them straight out might to to over +265 so i'll just hang for a while and wait for all those east coast ass holes and tout services to release on them, plus everyone here will be betting the yanks to win at home as well

To get a Pitt ML of +265 NY would have to go to -300, you think it'll get that high opening -180? Also what if Pitt winds by more than 2

 

[pops69]

To get a Pitt ML of +265 NY would have to go to -300, you think it'll get that high opening -180? Also what if Pitt winds by more than 2

if i just bet based on the numbers as they are right now, just on this game alone, regardless of who win me 1.37 for each 3.20 i have already bet which is based on the current +310 -1- alt run line, a multi 4 digit pay day on just one bet. but i'm still looking at other options and might just take part of the money and bet it at the straight ML on pitt if it get's higher and will also give me a shot at winning much more if pitt just wins straight out. there a bunch of math involved etc. wtf knows where the lines will go, i get feedback from a couple of casino on where the action is going and just watch the ticker as well. worse case i can just dump on the +310 right not and go fuck off for the rest of the day and just know that the only way i dont win anything (dont lose either) is if they dont play the game.

 

[pops69]

here's what the numbers look like on the yankees game

if pitt wins by 2 runs you would win 5.40 for each one of your bets, but if yanks win you win zero

but if you split it up so that you win either side you win 1.37 on each of your bets regardless who wins

remember is baseball and anything can happen. no if i had 5 diff games like the above that were bet, it would be a no brainer and take them all with the fav to win and break even, so that if even one dog wins you have a very good payday. but right now with only the option of finding one game, take the lesser amount regardless of who wins

so data with respect to pitt, they have only won 9 games on the road as the visiting team by more than 1 run

 

[patswin]

if i just bet based on the numbers as they are right now, just on this game alone, regardless of who win me 1.37 for each 3.20 i have already bet which is based on the current +310 -1- alt run line, a multi 4 digit pay day on just one bet. but i'm still looking at other options and might just take part of the money and bet it at the straight ML on pitt if it get's higher and will also give me a shot at winning much more if pitt just wins straight out. there a bunch of math involved etc. wtf knows where the lines will go, i get feedback from a couple of casino on where the action is going and just watch the ticker as well. worse case i can just dump on the +310 right not and go fuck off for the rest of the day and just know that the only way i dont win anything (dont lose either) is if they dont play the game.

kind of makes sense the way you explain it, I get the basic idea of what you are doing, just hard to follow for obvious reasons you can't fully explain it on a forum like this. Would like to meet you when I come to vegas for the bash (whenever it is) so I could better understand this. For me its hard to predict the lines moves and moving money around offshore is too difficult now for me to do stuff like this. from your posts i gather you do it on credit which then its very possible as long as limits are high enough. i almost consider it a skilled trade for guys like you that know what you are doing. wish i could do the same. helps to be in vegas for sure.

 

[patswin]

here's what the numbers look like on the yankees game

if pitt wins by 2 runs you would win 5.40 for each one of your bets, but if yanks win you win zero

but if you split it up so that you win either side you win 1.37 on each of your bets regardless who wins

remember is baseball and anything can happen. no if i had 5 diff games like the above that were bet, it would be a no brainer and take them all with the fav to win and break even, so that if even one dog wins you have a very good payday. but right now with only the option of finding one game, take the lesser amount regardless of who wins

so data with respect to pitt, they have only won 9 games on the road as the visiting team by more than 1 run

i had a site i found online that did all the math for you, just input the prices and bet amount and it would do the math and tell you how much to bet on each side to max profit and give you the % you get on the investment. i think it was scapulator or something like that but i haven't needed it the last few months

 

[pops69]

i had a site i found online that did all the math for you, just input the prices and bet amount and it would do the math and tell you how much to bet on each side to max profit and give you the % you get on the investment. i think it was scapulator or something like that but i haven't needed it the last few months

let me know if you can find it again. i'll check it againt what i used on a seperate spreadsheet. trying to develop one with those kind of options and also throw in the straight ML factor as well

 

[jacksonjohn]

let me know if you can find it again. i'll check it againt what i used on a seperate spreadsheet. trying to develop one with those kind of options and also throw in the straight ML factor as well

I just googled it and it's: scalpulator.com

 

[patswin]

I just googled it and it's: scalpulator.com

yes that is the one. Looks like its offline, not sure if it still working. Handy little tool

 

[cincy_]

here's what the numbers look like on the yankees game

if pitt wins by 2 runs you would win 5.40 for each one of your bets, but if yanks win you win zero

but if you split it up so that you win either side you win 1.37 on each of your bets regardless who wins

remember is baseball and anything can happen. no if i had 5 diff games like the above that were bet, it would be a no brainer and take them all with the fav to win and break even, so that if even one dog wins you have a very good payday. but right now with only the option of finding one game, take the lesser amount regardless of who wins

You don't have to do one or the other. You can do BOTH.

Place wagers so that you guarantee yourself anywhere from 0.75-1.00 unit and put the rest on a big payday ... that is what I do with most of my scalps/middles

PS: Granchow has these calculators and you can find it at the forum he moderates

 

[pops69]

You don't have to do one or the other. You can do BOTH.

Place wagers so that you guarantee yourself anywhere from 0.75-1.00 unit and put the rest on a big payday ... that is what I do with most of my scalps/middles

PS: Granchow has these calculators and you can find it at the forum he moderates

i didnt go for all greed, took the smaller option and winning 1.26 on each one of my bets. who granchow?

 

[pops69]

kind of makes sense the way you explain it, I get the basic idea of what you are doing, just hard to follow for obvious reasons you can't fully explain it on a forum like this. Would like to meet you when I come to vegas for the bash (whenever it is) so I could better understand this. For me its hard to predict the lines moves and moving money around offshore is too difficult now for me to do stuff like this. from your posts i gather you do it on credit which then its very possible as long as limits are high enough. i almost consider it a skilled trade for guys like you that know what you are doing. wish i could do the same. helps to be in vegas for sure.

vegas sure helps, but having a pinny account, or access to one is almost a required, keep you from being stuck w/o anywhere to lay off the other side etc

i'm not planning on going to the bash

 

[pops69]

been looking at a bunch of numbers today and i see some sites that have pitt -1- +250 when they could get pitt +1- +200 at many other sides etc

what they are saying is, here's are numbers, if you stupid than bet them

 

[spesh]

this should help you out pops..take u like 2 mins to get used to it.

http://www.thespread.com/images/stories/excel_sheets/Arb_Calculator.xls