Capping MLB 2007 #101a Ov/Un plus Las Vegas Q&A

[pops69]

Been posted for quite a while here:

http://www.majorleagueumpires.com/umpire_crews.htm

that looks like a decent site. any schedule info?

good to see you alive and kicking

for those new to the thread this year, the below cappers are on the MLB advisory board, so if i'm not around they should be able to answere any of your questions regarding the spreadsheets etc

goyanksgonj
roach32
alanta1978
ctp
oilbarrel
enki
asu (new this year to the board and thread)

the above guys are the ones that make everything work, and i'd be lost without them

tks and gl guys

 

[mlfp]

I think I'm missing a big piece of the puzzle today, not really thinking straight. When are the pivot tables going to come in to play here? I've done a lot of reading about them and got pretty comfortable so I can't wait to start asking questions and see if I'm smart.

 

[pops69]

I think I'm missing a big piece of the puzzle today, not really thinking straight. When are the pivot tables going to come in to play here? I've done a lot of reading about them and got pretty comfortable so I can't wait to start asking questions and see if I'm smart.

my guess would be may 1st, as you will have enough game data to start finding patters etc. just use last years from what i sent you to ask your what if questions. hopefully the popsummary and wa nps will be ready to go in a few day. i have it up and working now, just need to add a few items that we didnt have last year.

 

[mlfp]

my guess would be may 1st, as you will have enough game data to start finding patters etc. just use last years from what i sent you to ask your what if questions. hopefully the popsummary and wa nps will be ready to go in a few day. i have it up and working now, just need to add a few items that we didnt have last year.

Sounds good, thanks Pops. I recall some talk about your predicted totals via the SS, but only seem to remember that not enough time has gone in to developing them I believe. How accurate were you guys getting with these last year? Like to help develop these if there's anything I can do.

 

[CapnHandi]

MLB Daily Report

The MLB daily report has been totally redesigned for the 2007 season.
Make sure to read the Explanation tab on the sheet to get a full understanding.
Get it here:
http://www.yousendit.com/transfer.php?action=download&ufid=E4FDF2914A462BD7

I've included the games for tomorrow along with the game tonight; I've made estimates on the expected 5 inning lines for tomorrow.

1 play for tonight - over 4 for the first 5 innings; however, I don't recommend betting this unless you can get no worse than -110.

For tomorrow, 2 full game totals to consider:

Dodgers over 8
Indians under 9½
In spite of what the sheet says, I am not recommending an over play on WAS game as our analysis has shown that WAS overs in April are only winning at a 37% rate.

I am not recommending any ML plays yet.

 

[mlfp]

The GF wants to go hike, so I want to go hike. Back in a couple hours.

 

[EX-BALLPLAYER]

Hey Guys, Like the Mets+130 tonight. Lightly at this point of course.
METS VS RHP 73-45
STL VS LHP 23-33
Mets have the best opening day record in history of mlb .622
Glavin has won last 2 Op Day app: 7-2 vs Braves, 3-2 vs Wash.
Ayn thoughts on the total?

 

[punter]

Hey Guys, Like the Mets+130 tonight. Lightly at this point of course.
METS VS RHP 73-45
STL VS LHP 23-33
Mets have the best opening day record in history of mlb .622
Glavin has won last 2 Op Day app: 7-2 vs Braves, 3-2 vs Wash.
Ayn thoughts on the total?

I've had several that told me to take a hike.

Oops, that was for Mflp's post. Sorry.

 

[pops69]

The MLB daily report has been totally redesigned for the 2007 season.
Make sure to read the Explanation tab on the sheet to get a full understanding.
Get it here:
http://www.yousendit.com/transfer.php?action=download&ufid=E4FDF2914A462BD7

I've included the games for tomorrow along with the game tonight; I've made estimates on the expected 5 inning lines for tomorrow.

1 play for tonight - over 4 for the first 5 innings; however, I don't recommend betting this unless you can get no worse than -110.

For tomorrow, 2 full game totals to consider:

Dodgers over 8
Indians under 9½
In spite of what the sheet says, I am not recommending an over play on WAS game as our analysis has shown that WAS overs in April are only winning at a 37% rate.

I am not recommending any ML plays yet.

capth is the lazy mans way to bet mlb, and is a good option for many just like his cbb stuff, and his projections are much further along than ours will be. we still at step one, putting value on the various items were tracking. gl CH

 

[pops69]

The GF wants to go hike, so I want to go hike. Back in a couple hours.

man are you ***** wipped

 

[pops69]

Hey Guys, Like the Mets+130 tonight. Lightly at this point of course.
METS VS RHP 73-45
STL VS LHP 23-33
Mets have the best opening day record in history of mlb .622
Glavin has won last 2 Op Day app: 7-2 vs Braves, 3-2 vs Wash.
Ayn thoughts on the total?

i'm pretty sure that was one of the games that mbb told me about the other night, still need to fire up that puter and find my notes, still a bunch of time. dont like to get my dick wet with betting too early, like to wait until the last min or so like all my other sports

 

[CapnHandi]

capth is the lazy mans way to bet mlb, and is a good option for many just like his cbb stuff, and his projections are much further along than ours will be. we still at step one, putting value on the various items were tracking. gl CH

Projections on totals won at around a 60% rate last season - look here
http://winningtotals.com/MLB<WBR>/mlb_play_historybymonth.htm

Sometimes if you don't have the time to spend a few hours a day, having the work done for you pays off.

 

[joelatti]

i'm pretty sure that was one of the games that mbb told me about the other night, still need to fire up that puter and find my notes, still a bunch of time. dont like to get my dick wet with betting too early, like to wait until the last min or so like all my other sports

If you do find those "notes" please let us know......always like to hear what mbb has to say.......used to like to hear the"rick" also what happened to him??

 

[pops69]

If you do find those "notes" please let us know......always like to hear what mbb has to say.......used to like to hear the"rick" also what happened to him??

"the rick" is still at the casino every day or night that NBA is playing. He owes me a couple of plays from last year when i gave him a couple of solid ump plays that he cashed with a couple of nba games for a decent size parly, but i havent called in my marker with him yet, but i will once the playoffs start

i'll get to the other compter soon, trying to get everythings ready to go so i dont start being weeks behind like last year. i think things are more organized now vs where we were last year at this time.

still looking for a few good men if you interested in working for a living. need to have office 2007 or ability to handle those files, good excel skills and have at least 7-10 hours of time for your 1 week in the barrel

 

[cd329]

nn

Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter. Below 1.000 favors the pitcher.
PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))
Rank Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB
1 Great American (Cincinnati , Ohio ) 1.153 1.275 1.026 0.929 0.400 1.065
2 Coors Field (Denver , Colorado ) 1.149 1.167 1.141 1.006 1.224 1.067
3 Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City , Missouri ) 1.147 0.982 1.088 1.195 1.207 1.124
4 Chase Field (Phoenix , Arizona ) 1.141 1.343 1.101 1.096 1.636 1.084
5 Ameriquest Field (Arlington , Texas ) 1.081 1.066 1.025 1.133 0.778 1.043
6 Wrigley Field (Chicago , Illinois ) 1.075 1.212 1.011 1.080 1.364 0.898
7 Rogers Centre (Toronto , Ontario ) 1.067 1.272 1.031 1.016 2.000 0.954
8 Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia , Pennsylvania ) 1.063 1.201 1.007 1.029 0.653 0.955
9 U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago , Illinois ) 1.054 1.307 1.009 0.912 0.645 1.120
10 Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles , California ) 1.046 1.194 1.024 1.019 0.517 1.160
Rank Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB
11 Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg , Florida ) 1.041 1.164 0.972 0.932 1.609 1.094
12 Minute Maid Park (Houston , Texas ) 1.034 1.171 0.989 1.007 1.292 0.965
13 Fenway Park (Boston , Massachusetts ) 1.031 0.727 1.041 1.368 1.000 0.936
14 PNC Park (Pittsburgh , Pennsylvania ) 1.008 0.822 1.118 1.263 1.000 0.980
15 Miller Park (Milwaukee , Wisconsin ) 1.004 1.006 0.947 0.982 1.364 1.095
16 AT&T Park (San Francisco , California ) 0.993 0.681 0.972 1.080 1.049 0.991
17 Camden Yards (Baltimore , Maryland ) 0.985 1.184 1.030 0.876 0.600 0.914
18 Comerica Park (Detroit , Michigan ) 0.980 0.806 1.016 0.921 1.167 1.020
19 Metrodome (Minneapolis , Minnesota ) 0.963 0.836 0.976 0.947 1.591 0.792
20 Busch Stadium (St. Louis , Missouri ) 0.950 0.887 0.968 0.886 0.752 1.038
Rank Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB
21 Turner Field (Atlanta , Georgia ) 0.946 0.929 1.026 0.994 0.722 0.906
22 Jacobs Field (Cleveland , Ohio ) 0.946 0.866 0.942 0.982 0.786 1.065
23 RFK Stadium (Washington , D.C. ) 0.942 0.859 0.960 0.861 1.370 0.864
24 McAfee Coliseum (Oakland , California ) 0.921 0.852 0.976 1.071 0.931 0.899
25 Angel Stadium (Anaheim , California ) 0.906 0.801 1.025 0.939 0.793 0.957
26 Shea Stadium (Flushing , New York ) 0.902 0.881 0.935 1.003 0.844 1.019
27 Yankee Stadium (Bronx , New York ) 0.900 1.065 0.930 0.947 0.483 0.934
28 Dolphin Stadium (Miami , Florida ) 0.898 0.881 0.945 0.969 1.405 1.107
29 Safeco Field (Seattle , Washington ) 0.881 0.888 0.895 0.913 0.912 1.073
30 PETCO Park (San Diego , California ) 0.860 0.982 0.905 0.767 1.086 1.012

 

[$4nothing]

man are you ***** wipped

maybe
My
Lady's
Fvckin'
Possessive

j/k bro.

 

[leisure]

The MLB daily report has been totally redesigned for the 2007 season.
Make sure to read the Explanation tab on the sheet to get a full understanding.
Get it here:
http://www.yousendit.com/transfer.php?action=download&ufid=E4FDF2914A462BD7

I've included the games for tomorrow along with the game tonight; I've made estimates on the expected 5 inning lines for tomorrow.

Capn outstanding SS on your part.......bravo and thx.

 

[pops69]

nn

Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter. Below 1.000 favors the pitcher.
PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG))
Rank Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB
1 Great American (Cincinnati , Ohio ) 1.153 1.275 1.026 0.929 0.400 1.065
2 Coors Field (Denver , Colorado ) 1.149 1.167 1.141 1.006 1.224 1.067
3 Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City , Missouri ) 1.147 0.982 1.088 1.195 1.207 1.124
4 Chase Field (Phoenix , Arizona ) 1.141 1.343 1.101 1.096 1.636 1.084
5 Ameriquest Field (Arlington , Texas ) 1.081 1.066 1.025 1.133 0.778 1.043
6 Wrigley Field (Chicago , Illinois ) 1.075 1.212 1.011 1.080 1.364 0.898
7 Rogers Centre (Toronto , Ontario ) 1.067 1.272 1.031 1.016 2.000 0.954
8 Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia , Pennsylvania ) 1.063 1.201 1.007 1.029 0.653 0.955
9 U.S. Cellular Field (Chicago , Illinois ) 1.054 1.307 1.009 0.912 0.645 1.120
10 Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles , California ) 1.046 1.194 1.024 1.019 0.517 1.160
Rank Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB
11 Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg , Florida ) 1.041 1.164 0.972 0.932 1.609 1.094
12 Minute Maid Park (Houston , Texas ) 1.034 1.171 0.989 1.007 1.292 0.965
13 Fenway Park (Boston , Massachusetts ) 1.031 0.727 1.041 1.368 1.000 0.936
14 PNC Park (Pittsburgh , Pennsylvania ) 1.008 0.822 1.118 1.263 1.000 0.980
15 Miller Park (Milwaukee , Wisconsin ) 1.004 1.006 0.947 0.982 1.364 1.095
16 AT&T Park (San Francisco , California ) 0.993 0.681 0.972 1.080 1.049 0.991
17 Camden Yards (Baltimore , Maryland ) 0.985 1.184 1.030 0.876 0.600 0.914
18 Comerica Park (Detroit , Michigan ) 0.980 0.806 1.016 0.921 1.167 1.020
19 Metrodome (Minneapolis , Minnesota ) 0.963 0.836 0.976 0.947 1.591 0.792
20 Busch Stadium (St. Louis , Missouri ) 0.950 0.887 0.968 0.886 0.752 1.038
Rank Park Name Runs HR H 2B 3B BB
21 Turner Field (Atlanta , Georgia ) 0.946 0.929 1.026 0.994 0.722 0.906
22 Jacobs Field (Cleveland , Ohio ) 0.946 0.866 0.942 0.982 0.786 1.065
23 RFK Stadium (Washington , D.C. ) 0.942 0.859 0.960 0.861 1.370 0.864
24 McAfee Coliseum (Oakland , California ) 0.921 0.852 0.976 1.071 0.931 0.899
25 Angel Stadium (Anaheim , California ) 0.906 0.801 1.025 0.939 0.793 0.957
26 Shea Stadium (Flushing , New York ) 0.902 0.881 0.935 1.003 0.844 1.019
27 Yankee Stadium (Bronx , New York ) 0.900 1.065 0.930 0.947 0.483 0.934
28 Dolphin Stadium (Miami , Florida ) 0.898 0.881 0.945 0.969 1.405 1.107
29 Safeco Field (Seattle , Washington ) 0.881 0.888 0.895 0.913 0.912 1.073
30 PETCO Park (San Diego , California ) 0.860 0.982 0.905 0.767 1.086 1.012

i like this, dont know what to do with it, but i do know that i like it. do you have this in excel format, and who developed it?. did i say i liked it. cpt, maybe this could help with one of those areas we discussed

 

[roach23]

i like this, dont know what to do with it, but i do know that i like it. do you have this in excel format, and who developed it?. did i say i liked it. cpt, maybe this could help with one of those areas we discussed

its from espn.com

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?season=2006

 

[cd329]

i like this, dont know what to do with it, but i do know that i like it. do you have this in excel format, and who developed it?. did i say i liked it. cpt, maybe this could help with one of those areas we discussed

Pops,
i got it from here
http://www.baseballformula.com/totalsformula.htm

I thought it was pretty interesting.