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if you dont know the drill it email address i crypto format like jsmith at yahoo dot com. from that i send you and email which need to be confirmed back to me with your system requirements etc, once confirmed back that your can comply, i'll send all the spreadsheets from last year. other the this years pdws noting is finished yet, close but no cigar, too many just fucking the dog and putting enought effort into the project, me included
Back in the old days in the CBB thread we talked about auto refresh of web pages, and it was easy with firefox, which i was using at the time, now switch back to IE 7.0 because of 64 capabilities. Is there a way to setup auto refresh with this version? Or do you need to download a seperate program for refresh?
you aska lotta questions pops. :lol:
j/k .....here ya go:
http://www.windowsmarketplace.com/details.aspx?view=info&itemid=2781915
i'm just trying to comprehend what the last worksheet of "wa_nps_2006 mlb final" labeled "Proj Ov-Un" is about. from what i can tell you appear to make projections on what the total runs scored in a certain game should be. by my count, the projected total was correct 25 times and wrong 19.
i was wondering how you came up with these projected totals and if you broke down how your projected totals did(i.e. how well your projected totals did when the projected total was 1/2 run, 1 run, 2runs, 3 runs, etc. over/under the vegas run line.)?
that was our 1st attempt at trying to come up with projected totals, but was not effective. plus we did it so late in the season that we just didnt have much time to do much else. when the 2007 masters are finished the wa nps will not be a stand alone spreadsheet and will be included as just one of the tabs in the total program, but will still function the same way. a couple of us are working to try and put some teeth into making it a true ov/un projection engine, that we can adjust as the year goes on and measure against. but i would expect that to be at least 30-45 day away. so for the time being just treat it as a large pivot table that brings in summary data in about 8 diff areas, most are color coded. if you smart enough to know what's needed and how to fix it to be one let me know and you can head the project
makes total sense. i assume a solid over ump would have a bigger impact on poor pitchers because of the tighter strike zone and the likelyhood of more walks.
i tried to test this theory that both solid over and under umps would have a bigger impact on poor pitchers. i'll now try to explain what i tried to do to test this theory and the one problem i encountered.
according to the 2006 thread notes, pitching is the biggest factor in determining a games run line. based on the assumption that both over and under umps have a bigger impact on poor pitchers i wanted to see if the games with higher run lines had a significantly better chance of going over with a over ump and under with a under ump.
looking at the spreadsheet umps04_05_06 i found ten umpires who had an over % greater than 53%(i could have used a higher %, but i wanted to try this on a larger sample first) for both the 04-05 seasons and the 2006 season. using the worksheet labeled OUbyLine found in the mlb2006master spreadsheet i then proceeded to calculate what the over % for these umpires would be if the run line was less than 9.5, less than 8, greater than 9.5, and greater than 10.5 for ther 2006 season. this is where i noticed that there is a discrepancy between the two spreadsheets in the umpire statistics. for example, according to spreadsheet umps04_05_06 jerry crawford umpired 19 overs and 13 unders in 2006, but worksheet OUbyLine indicates that crawford umpired 17 overs and 12 unders. also the last worksheet labeled AL & NL Combined found in the mlb2006master spreadsheet indicates that crawford umped 16 overs and 12 unders.
pops, do you know why there is a discrepancy in the spreadsheets?
is there a way to check how each ump did over/under against the different run lines for the 04-05 seasons like you can for the 2006 season with the OUbyLine worksheet?
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