Capping MLB 2007 #101a Ov/Un plus Las Vegas Q&A

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fuck old and blind, cant believe i missed that detroit LM to the under, LM fades were 2-1 for the day. not shit going on with the late game

i'm going to lunch, skipped bf, back in about 2
 

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Anybody have any opinions on the late game? I think the under is the play but I dont think I can bring myself to play it with Bucknor as the ump. Maybe the line will move and make it any easy decision.
 

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Bill- I wouldn't be playing the under. Gun to my head I'd take the over, reasons for the over, pitchers era, scoring avg's of teams, bucknor. reasons for the under, humidity, sdg home game scoring avgs. Just my thoughts
 

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Bill- I wouldn't be playing the under. Gun to my head I'd take the over, reasons for the over, pitchers era, scoring avg's of teams, bucknor. reasons for the under, humidity, sdg home game scoring avgs. Just my thoughts

Yeah I will probably just make it a no play......I liked the under because when I looked at the data it looked like San Diego at home was more likely to go under when the visiting pitcher had a high era and I expect Maddux to pitch a gem to his old team.
 

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BATR

next two days are only going to be data audits and data base clean up for me. we have a few old weeks that that data has not been audited

weeks #6, 7 and 10, not sure who had those weeks but still need to get them check and the DB corrected for any errors etc

if line moves down to 8 i'm on the over tonight in SD
 

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I have been watching these sunday games Mil will have a tough time tonight ATL just doesn't go away. (*If I was smart) I'm probably going to buy back my over 8.5 because of it's popularity and the fact Maddux could go lights out for 7 innings and I really don"t like be anywhere near him and a decision.

*If I really want to win long run instead of just throw away money.
 

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based on the data, pitchers, umps, and, weather I'm holding strong with my over 8.5 if it reaches 9 I'll buy it all back if not. I'm letting it ride no reason not to percentages are in my favor.

GLTA
 

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Pops and all. Now that's it's the AS break, wondering if you or MLB or anyone has any thoughts on value for WS futures. Thought now would be a good time to discuss. I think SDG and DET still may have some value.
Ham
 

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Pops and all. Now that's it's the AS break, wondering if you or MLB or anyone has any thoughts on value for WS futures. Thought now would be a good time to discuss. I think SDG and DET still may have some value.
Ham

ham: mlb and i had a long discussion on it today. he going to think it over again tonight and get back with me tomorrow. but i know one 4 sure will be in the HR derby
 

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An 'under' waiting to happen
Umpire Doug Eddings has called balls and strikes 19 times this season and 11 of those games have played under the total. Other umps have far better percentages on the total, but Eddings is the only MLB ump who’s called at least 10 games this year who calls at least 65 percent of the pitches he sees strikes.
There have been a lot of home runs in Eddings’ games, leading to some higher scores, but it’s not his fault. There are three strikeouts for every walk in an Eddings-called game, whereas the MLB average ratio is less than two-to-one
 

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Monday June 9th

rest and audit day

morning all... i've posted the updated master (has a holly wip that involves the OL and avg runs which i think could be the key to capping the o/u as it is almost dead ass on the opening lines)

i'll continue to work on this for the next few days etc

also if you still have not finished your data audits, a few old ones left, please try to get those finished b4 the AS is finished. I'd like to roll into the 2nd half of the season with a good of numbers as possible

i do have a short dr apt this morning, so i'll combine that with bf at the casino and be until 8am or so

back to work
 

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I'm not sure where we stand with respect to pdws help and special projects etc
But if you know how to use excel, and have excel 2007 your welcome to have the complete data base that we developed and access to the ftp share area as well.
So if your not afraid of doing a little work, let me know.
Another easy way to receive everything is to be a regular contributor to the thread (no fucken lame ass picks as considered contribution) e.g sources of key data, key information, and thinks of value to the people that follow the thread vs lame ass picks
As most of you already know i'm going to ucla in a couple of weeks for back surg, and oilbarrel and cpt will be handling updates to the master and adding the era's and whip's to the pdws
that's about all i have for know, q&a
 

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Thread Highlights

Twice a week the link below contains all the thread highlights and important posts since the inception of this thread. It will provide an outline and explain a ton of questions and answers. Plenty of reading time with all star break going on so enjoy.

http://download.yousendit.com/322AA2DA1E018B42
 

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BATR

fuck is it hot outside. if you coming to lv land, dont. if your dumb enough to come here or live here anyway, stay inside the casino

wow
 

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i put up up a link in the ftp in the notifications

heading into the 2nd half of the season

last year the 1st half of the year was large to the overs, but not so this year. the other thing i see is that the ov/un numbers are already higher than they were last year.

one good thing that this is bringing is that many line moves are allowing you to win both (at least one side w/o losing the other) this does not happen all that ofter, but the higher than normal OL have given birth to this situation a number of times during the past 3 weeks

something that you should keep an eye on. it's not really scalping but, sure close too it

the other thing i see is that only a few of those that are getting the spreadsheets are really using them. i know the amount of data avail can be over powering, but it's really very easy and simple to use.

the summaries are only that, summaries, which should point to areas that need to be looked at further

i believe there's a close relationship to holly, avg runs scored d/n and OL plus line moves. yes it would be great to come up with a 20 rule like cbb, but the sport is not setup that way. one small even can turn the difference in a game the other way. so the key is to try to be on the sides of trends and patterns etc

that's all i have for now

glta
 

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BATR

fuck is it hot outside. if you coming to lv land, dont. if your dumb enough to come here or live here anyway, stay inside the casino

wow


so you're tellin me I shouldn't come out for one of the bashes? But I need to meet the man, the myth, the legend. I need to tell you good luck and thanks for the great picks and that you're the best handicapper on the site. hahahhahahaa just messin pops.

keep your powder dry...
 

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so you're tellin me I shouldn't come out for one of the bashes? But I need to meet the man, the myth, the legend. I need to tell you good luck and thanks for the great picks and that you're the best handicapper on the site. hahahhahahaa just messin pops.

keep your powder dry...

i do not plan to go to the bash. save your money and come at a decent time of year. like the winter
 

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Maybe someone else saw this on sportscenter or bb 2nite. I meant to write the # down, but....anyway I want to say the stat was there was a difference of 330? in home runs hit last year pre-all star break than this year.
Not very helpful, I know, but did someone else see this and note the stat?
 

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Maybe someone else saw this on sportscenter or bb 2nite. I meant to write the # down, but....anyway I want to say the stat was there was a difference of 330? in home runs hit last year pre-all star break than this year.
Not very helpful, I know, but did someone else see this and note the stat?

fucken a, no roids, no HR's.

nothing magic about those numbers.
 
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