Capping MLB 2007 #101a Ov/Un plus Las Vegas Q&A

[patswin]

Helpful info on totals betting

on/off 8/10 is worth 15 cents

on/off the 7/9 is worth 25 cents

rule of thumb...even totals worth between 15 and 18 cents with the higher even totals being worth more.

rule of thumb...odd totals worth between 23 and 28 cents with the lower numbers being worth more.

Thus 9'o even is better than 9o -130 by just a tiny bit.

OVR 8' +130 is worlds better than OVR 8 EVEN.

 

[$4nothing]

Pops:
Paris still have 50-yard long buffet?
Pig out for $10 ?

was yummy.

 

[pops69]

Bump ^

lol, i saw it but forgot to answer it.

not many places with free wireless, there a pay service that i did daily it was about 10/day you will pick it up as one of your access points, but not much free stuff, but some that you can prob hack if your worth a shit and know how to use some of the wireless hacking software like airsnort etc

couple of my fav on the strip are wynn's (very small sports book but nice) bally's is a decent place to hang. most of the books have shit in the way of decent mlb bets expecially the night before. any of the coast will have the most amount of action. my personal sport book fav is the santa fe station, best i've seen anywhere. most strip sportbooks are worthless

in just you want to stay inside a much as possible, especially during the day, and take cabs or walk around the strip and stay off the 15 or 95 between 6am-9am and 3pm-7pm during the week

p.s. cesars just did a sport book upgrade that you might want to check out


what did i miss

 

[mlfp]

lol, i saw it but forgot to answer it.

not many places with free wireless, there a pay service that i did daily it was about 10/day you will pick it up as one of your access points, but not much free stuff, but some that you can prob hack if your worth a shit and know how to use some of the wireless hacking software like airsnort etc

couple of my fav on the strip are wynn's (very small sports book but nice) bally's is a decent place to hang. most of the books have shit in the way of decent mlb bets expecially the night before. any of the coast will have the most amount of action. my personal sport book fav is the santa fe station, best i've seen anywhere. most strip sportbooks are worthless

in just you want to stay inside a much as possible, especially during the day, and take cabs or walk around the strip and stay off the 15 or 95 between 6am-9am and 3pm-7pm during the week

p.s. cesars just did a sport book upgrade that you might want to check out


what did i miss

Looks good, I'll write this down so I don't forget. Anything that's really worthwhile to check out besides what you've already given me? Thanks again.

 

[pops69]

Pops

I got the email from Geppi and I am on the short list to be dropped. I'd like to stay on if possible, I will be available for the data collection as you said when you asked for this last month during CBB. I have been contributing more over the last week since I finally got Office 07 (thanks NickFantana). Before I had office I was not able to use the pivots and get much from the data since I had excel 03. I did make a useful post #3884 breaking down prices on totals which I feel is very valuable since the plays are totals and over the course of a season you will do better long term if you know it is smarter to bet 08'+130 than betting 08+100. I will be around during the summer months so if you need someone to pull double duty on the data collection I would be happy to do that.

your fine, i went thru the list real quick this am and had a bunch on that i didnt remember so just put them all on to stir the pot

tks

 

[pops69]

Looks good, I'll write this down so I don't forget. Anything that's really worthwhile to check out besides what you've already given me? Thanks again.

it all depends on what you like to do, and if your bringing a bitch with you, as that will determine where you go and what you do. me i just like to sit around and do nothing so everyone is diff. ton of very good shows etc so it fielders choice

 

[shale]

pops.....looking at a couple of ump angles with "E" and "H" and how the pitchers do after the game that those two have been behind the plate. e's pitchers are o 6-3-1 while h's pitchers are o 3-3

just food for thought

smoltz and hirsch last two victims

Pops,
not sure if you were aware of the above, so i quoted the statement.


also......do not know i you are aware.......chan ho park is now pitching for the mets as they put "el duque" on the dl

 

[mlfp]

Interesting tidbit I found poking around in the pivots

Tab: LineMove
Cell J2 = N
Cell J4 = O

Under the above circumstances:
When J1 = A, Row 11 yields an 11-4 O/U result, 73.3% Ov
When J1 = N, Row 11 yields an 8-16 O/U result, 66.7% Un

I'm sure most have noticed this and it's probably been mentioned, but figured I'd throw it out there.

 

[sinatrac]

Rpw

mets 67 WINDY/SUNNY 20 out to r/c from 3b dug
mil 60 40% storms 13 in from l/c-1b dug..nice in chicago...OPEN???
sf 68 s 13 out to c
det 65 p/cldy 5 in from l/c
kc 82 p/cldy 15 ou to l/c
B)
pit 70 p/cldy 11 out to r/c
atl 83 s
sd 61 m/cldy
lad 66 p/cldy 8 out to r/c....GL

 

[twjd]

Latest News:
White Sox placed designated hitter Jim Thome on the 15-day disabled list with a strained rib-cage muscle. This is an especially big loss with Scott Podsednik out, as the White Sox already have Rob Mackowiak playing left field. GM Ken Williams should have kept Eduardo Perez out of spring training or had a viable alternative at DH stashed away in Triple-A. Since he didn't, we'll be seeing too much of Alex Cintron, Ryan Sweeney and Brian Anderson for at least the next two weeks

 

[sinatrac]

Latest News:
White Sox placed designated hitter Jim Thome on the 15-day disabled list with a strained rib-cage muscle. This is an especially big loss with Scott Podsednik out, as the White Sox already have Rob Mackowiak playing left field. GM Ken Williams should have kept Eduardo Perez out of spring training or had a viable alternative at DH stashed away in Triple-A. Since he didn't, we'll be seeing too much of Alex Cintron, Ryan Sweeney and Brian Anderson for at least the next two weeks

Brian And. sent down to aaa today

 

[pops69]

Pops,
not sure if you were aware of the above, so i quoted the statement.


also......do not know i you are aware.......chan ho park is now pitching for the mets as they put "el duque" on the dl

didnt notice, let me check the final schedule out and see how many more need to me changed. tks

 

[FennisDembo]

didnt notice, let me check the final schedule out and see how many more need to me changed. tks

kip wells is not on the pdws-has looper as the starter...

 

[presscoverage]

ATL - PHI

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 width=300 border=0><TBODY><TR class=section_medium><TD class=black12bold align=middle colSpan=2>Umpires</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black12bold width="65%">Name</TD><TD class=black12bold align=middle width="35%"> Position</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc colSpan=2 height=1>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black11>Joe West</TD><TD class=black11 align=middle>HP</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc colSpan=2 height=1>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black11>Ed Rapuano</TD><TD class=black11 align=middle>1B</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc colSpan=2 height=1>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black11>C.B. Bucknor</TD><TD class=black11 align=middle>2B</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc colSpan=2 height=1>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black11>Mike DiMuro</TD><TD class=black11 align=middle>3B</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[FennisDembo]

Baltimore-Detroit:

Wally Bell HP

Laz Diaz 1B

Mike Muchlinski 2B

Bill Welke 3B

 

[shale]

monday pitching splits

CUBS AT PIRATES:
R. Hill (L)
3-1 1.57 aprils
1-0 14.1ip 1.26 vs pit
5-7 4.90 nites
no starts at pitt

Z. Duke (L)
2-4 5.62 aprils
4-1 1.40 vs chi
12-12 3.73 nites
13-7 3.80 at pit

PHILLIES AT BRAVES:
J. Lieber (R)
16-15 3.92 aprils
6-7 3.41 vs atl
66-75 4.82 nites
4-2 3.18 at atl

T. Hudson (R) (as everyone is aware of, was a college team mate of Josh Hancock)
19-11 3.54 aprils
4-3 3.64 vs phi
81-41 3.54 nites
15-10 3.72 at atl

MARLINS AT METS
S. Olsen (L)
3-2 4.60 aprils
0-0 3.41 vs nym
10-6 3.60 nites
0-0 3.00 at nym

C.H. Park (R)
{minor league stats: 4 starts / 3-1 7.29 era / 26 hits 21 ip / 6 hr's allowed}
19-17 4.79 aprils
4.2 4.39 vs fla
70-60 4.72 nites
1-1 2.92 at nym

CARDINALS AT BREWERS
{please note, that Suppan was a member of the Cards before this year}
K. Wells (R)
10-14 4.41 aprils
6-7 3.96 vs mil
43-52 4.40 nites
4-3 5.29 at mil

J. Suppan (R)
19-23 4.17 aprils
3-2 4.17 vs stl
75-72 4.59 nites
2-0 4.58 at mil

NATIONALS AT PADRES
J. Patterson (R)
4-8 4.18 aprils
2-3 3.40 vs sdp
12-17 4.35 nites
1-1 2.45 at sdp

J. Peavy (R)
11-5 2.85 aprils
2-3 4.29 vs was
41-31 3.10 nites
21-13 3.02 at sdp

DIAMONDBACKS AT DODGERS
B. Webb (R)
11-2 2.62 aprils
5.3 3.62 vs lad
36-37 3.20 nites
2-2 4.34 at lad

R. Wolf (L)
12-15 4.57 aprils
4-1 3.50 vs ari
49-45 4.19 nites
3-3 4.19 at lad

ROCKIES AT GIANTS
J. Fogg (R)
8-8 4.65 aprils
3-1 3.27 vs sfg
33-33 4.55 nites
2-1 3.41 at sfg

N. Lowry (L)
3-4 4.76 aprils
1-4 7.74 vs col
23-16 3.73 nites
18-14 3.23 at sfg

ORIOLES AT TIGERS
D. Cabrera (R)
4-5 5.51 aprils
3-0 5.34 vs det
22-22 4.00 nites
2-0 5.62 at det

J. Bonderman (R)
8-9 4.83 aprils
1-3 6.86 vs bal
33-32 4.50 nites
21-23 4.80 at det

RANGERS AT BLUE JAYS
V. Padilla (R)
10-16 4.11 aprils
2-0 3.29 vs tex {padilla has done decent against jays...getting +200 back worth a shot}
49-42 4.27 nites
2-8 4.93 domes
1-0 2.57 at tor

R. Halladay (R)
17-12 4.44 aprils
4-4 5.77 vs tex {this really sticks out to me for good value for the rangers}
57-31 3.51 nites
36-12 3.27 domes
53-23 3.34 at tor

ANGELS AT ROYALS
J. Lackey (R)
10-9 5.01 aprils
1-2 4.13 vs kcr
47-36 3.94 nites
0-0 6.2 ip 5.40 at kcr

Od. Perez (L)
16-12 4.25 aprils
1-3 3.94 vs ana
43-48 4.32 nites
3-3 5.56 at kcr

value plays seem to be on Pittsburgh, Florida (fade to Park), Orioles and Rangers getting decent to real good money on all....this is just based on pitching match-ups without taking into consideration (as i do) head-to-head match-ups and how team bats against lefties if applicable. But, just wanted to get this info up in time as I am working on the other angles

 

[pops69]

shale, corrected the two pitchers, not going to do an updated pdws, but the masters will be updated with the wells and park change, tks for the info, i was fucking the dog playing some 360 on line

1st game taking tigers ov 8 very low humidity for detroit game and very light wind coming in from left field, plus OL 8- now 8, one of the ML data pivots he just posted plus a couple of other trends as well and bell at HP

 

[pops69]

kip wells is not on the pdws-has looper as the starter...

i just change that one as well as park which is wrong as well

 

[FennisDembo]

STL-MIL

Dan Iassogna HP

Ron Kulpa 1B

Dale Scott 2B

Paul Emmel 3B

 

[presscoverage]

STL - MIL

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=0 width=300 border=0><TBODY><TR class=section_medium><TD class=black12bold align=middle colSpan=2>Umpires</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black12bold width="65%">Name</TD><TD class=black12bold align=middle width="35%"> Position</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc colSpan=2 height=1>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black11>Dan Iassogna</TD><TD class=black11 align=middle>HP</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc colSpan=2 height=1>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black11>Ron Kulpa</TD><TD class=black11 align=middle>1B</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc colSpan=2 height=1>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black11>Dale Scott</TD><TD class=black11 align=middle>2B</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc colSpan=2 height=1>

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=black11>Paul Emmel</TD><TD class=black11 align=middle>3B</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>