Bunch Of Fantasy Info.

[Greenbacks]

[h=1]Ezekiel Elliott fantasy draft value falls with suspension.[/h]Ezekiel Elliott has been suspended by the NFL for six games for violating the league's personal conduct policy following a year-long investigation into multiple incidents -- including a domestic violence allegation -- involving the Dallas Cowboys running back. Last season, Elliott was the NFL's rushing leader with 1,631 yards and finished as the second-highest scoring running back.
Elliott has three days to appeal the suspension but barring a successful appeal, he wouldn't be eligible to return until the Cowboys' Week 8 game against the Washington Redskins. Dallas has a bye in Week 6.
The bottom line is that Elliott -- who was a consensus top three fantasy draft pick -- will miss approximately half of the fantasy regular season. At this point, there is no way he can be considered anything more than a fourth-round pick. While you're getting a running back with top three talent when he returns, it also means holding a roster spot for the first two months of the season. It's not a luxury that all fantasy managers will be able to afford.
In Elliott's absence, Dallas is likely to turn to a committe approach with veterans Darren McFadden and Alfred Morris splitting the workload and a possibility. McFadden is just two seasons removed from rushing for 1,089 yards behind the Cowboys offensive line. Morris saw very limited work in 2016 (69 rush, 243 yards, 2 TD, 4.9 ypc) but was once a legitimate fantasy threat, opening his career with three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and three straight top 15 fantasy RB finishes.
With the two players likely to split carries, both will see their current ADPs rise (McFadden is currently the RB53 on FFCalculator; Morris is unranked) but McFadden as the presumptive lead back shouldn't be drafted before the ninth round. For now, Ronnie Hillman remains on the roster but it seems unlikely that he'll have a significant role in the offense.
This will undoubtedly have an impact on the Dallas passing game. It might not be as clear-cut as you'd think, though. The Cowboys ran a higher percentage of pass plays without Elliott on the field but Dak Prescott was considerably less efficient. Not having their workhorse available means Prescott will be asked to take on more responsibility. That could mean more targets for Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley. Yet Prescott will also likely see more pressure from opposing defense which would make it difficult to duplicate last season's success.
For now, Prescott remains a viable option for those waiting on a quarterback in drafts. However with Bryant potentially seeing an uptick in targets, his current late second-round ADP could see a bit of a bump.

 

[Greenbacks]

Andrew Luck and Cam Newton fantasy football outlook.

Cam Newton and Andrew Luck have a lot in common. Both were first-overall NFL draft selections in 2011 and 2012, respectively. They're both perennial top-five picks at their position in fantasy football drafts. They endure countless sacks and physical batterings year after year due to their playing styles and more recently, weaknesses with their offensive lines.
And unless you've been hibernating for the past six months you've probably heard that both quarterbacks underwent shoulder surgery on their throwing arms this past offseason.
If we're being completely honest, the news surrounding the potential healthy return of both Newton and Luck has not been promising at this point in the preseason.
Since many fantasy owners rely on both signal-callers as well as the top skill-position players surrounding them to anchor their fake squads, it makes sense to investigate this situation further to determine how concerned we should be about the pair's outlook for 2017 from a fantasy perspective. After all, the first full slate of preseason games is already underway.

WHAT WE KNOW

Newton suffered a partial rotator cuff tear in Week 14 trying to make a tackle after throwing a pick. He underwent surgery on March 30th per the Panthers' official website and was given a 16-week (four months) rehab estimate. Newton was on track and received clearance to throw short passes for a few training camp sessions in late July, but was shut down with shoulder soreness by the following week. He did some light throwing on the side earlier this week, but it's no surprise that he sat out the Panthers' preseason opener against Houston.
Luck's procedure to repair a torn labrum suffered back in 2015 was approximately two months prior to Newton's (mid-January). The Colts quarterback has reportedly yet to throw anything but tennis balls as he gradually rebuilds his strength and throwing motion. It seems like a new quote from Colts brass comes out every day regarding Luck's potential return, but with no real clarity. The latest is that his timetable remains unknown, including his status for the regular season opener on September 10th in Los Angeles.
Given their respective ADPs, fantasy drafters are not apprehensive about either quarterback just yet. Both are still among the top-10 signal-callers being drafted. But looking at the recent drop off in ADP since August 1 (see below chart), perhaps we're beginning to see a bit of fear set in. Rightfully so as fantasy drafts ramp up in the coming weeks.
The current uncertainty raises the risk of drafting either player, along with the risk in drafting the weapons that surround them in their respective offenses (T.Y. Hilton, Kelvin Benjamin, Donte Moncrief, Greg Olsen, etc).

WHY THE DIFFERENCE IN RECOVERY TIME?

Now, I'm not a doctor but I can read. And if you're reading this, you can too. So, it's important to note that not all injuries, surgeries, or rehabilitation programs are alike. One might see surface-level headlines like "surgery on throwing shoulder" and assume both players should be treated equally.
Former Chargers team doctor David J. Chao, MD (also known as @ProFootballDoc on Twitter) penned an enlightening piece on why Luck's recovery is so far behind Newton's given that the former went under the knife two months prior to the latter. It was a different injury, therefore a different procedure that has a different rehab timetable. Information like this goes a long way in deciphering the cryptic missives we receive from teams and coaches regarding recovery periods.
If there's a positive to take away from this situation, it's that we have some concrete examples of starting NFL quarterbacks successfully returning from comparable injuries in the past.

A STROLL DOWN MEMORY LANE

For starters, it's worth mentioning that Jay Cutler underwent a procedure last December to repair an injury similar to Luck's. We've already seen Cutler throwing at Dolphins' camp as he gets acquainted with his new team. The dude literally didn't throw a football other than to his kids during the offseason. Again, no two injuries, surgeries and/or bodies are alike, but maybe this is a good signal for Luck's impending return.

Back in 2006:

You might have heard about a guy named Drew Brees. Late in the 2005 season, in Brees' final game as a San Diego Charger, he dislocated his throwing shoulder trying to recover a fumble. Brees had surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and partially torn labrum in the offseason and was signed by the Saints that spring. The signing alone indicates that the injury was not a concern for New Orleans. Brees' rehab program was a four-month process and he played in every preseason game that year. There apparently was no holding back during the regular season, as he finished fifth in the league in pass attempts (554). He led the NFL with 4,418 pass yards to go along with 26 touchdowns and earned First-Team All-Pro honors in addition to making the Pro Bowl. The Saints won their division and Brees led his new team to the NFC Championship.

The Sanchize:

You might remember Mark Sanchez taking over under center for the Eagles back in Week 9 of the 2014 season. He had undergone a procedure to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder the previous October and after about six months of rehab was healthy enough to play during the 2014 preseason with no real concerns. Sanchez didn't light the league on fire the way Brees did in 2006. But he did post a career-high 88.4 passer rating and had the second-highest completion percentage, 64.1, of his career. He finished with a very Sanchez-esque 14-11 TD to INT ratio that year but was a streamable fantasy quarterback for a few weeks.

A worst-case scenario:

Chad Pennington's story is somewhat of a different scenario but his experience is useful here nonetheless. Pennington underwent two rotator cuff surgeries on his throwing shoulder and four total shoulder procedures in his career. He underwent rotator cuff surgery in February 2005, was throwing in training camp by August and managed to play in a few preseason games. But he re-injured the same shoulder in Week 3 (late September) and went out for the season, going under the knife again in October. He returned healthy in 2006 and played the full 16-game slate. He finished ninth in the NFL in pass attempts (485), 10th in pass yards (3,352) and had a 17-16 TD to INT ratio. He wasn't a coveted asset in fantasy, but it's comforting to know he managed to play a full season after the two surgeries in a span of eight months. Pennington's career continued for a few years after that 2006 season which is surprising considering some medical experts thought his playing career was in serious jeopardy.

CONCLUSION

Should fantasy owners be drafting these guys with no concerns? Definitely not. There is no certainty that either of them will achieve 100 percent health during the season. As noted above, Brees had to continuously rehab his shoulder throughout the season. But we saw Luck play through his injury last year, and he still managed to be the QB4 in fantasy. A less-than 100 percent Luck/Newton still presents more fantasy upside than some of the other quarterbacks who will be drafted as top-10 options. Just be sure you're aware of the risk involved.
The "success" stories of Brees, Sanchez and Pennington make me feel a little bit better about the outlook for Luck and Newton and less worried that we haven't seen them back to throwing at a high level just yet. They'll get there. The Panthers and Colts are taking things slowly with their franchise quarterbacks, and are doing right to ensure their health in the long term. If that means fantasy owners have to make a tough decision on draft day, so be it.

 

[Greenbacks]

Evaluating fantasy running backs in subpar offenses.

Once upon a time, an electric college running back took the NFL by storm in his rookie season. Despite playing for a subpar team, he earned countless accolades, including Offensive Rookie of the Year, while convincing the football cognoscenti that he was a generational talent set to rewrite the NFL record books.
Then 2016 happened.
Yes, I'm talking about Todd Gurley, an athlete whose first two seasons have left many scratching their heads. He was a revelation as a rookie but developed bad habits as a sophomore while consistently getting crushed behind the line of scrimmage in an offense that struggled to move the football, score points, or basically function as a professional unit. Fantasy-wise, Gurley trudged through the year, finishing as the RB20 in standard leagues and scoring 32.4 fewer fantasy points than his rookie season, despite playing essentially four more games.
Now, the point of this article isn't to pile dirt on Gurley's fantasy grave (the kid likely still has a bright NFL future ahead of him), but to use this as a case study to apply to the 2017 season. Matt Harmon, my colleague at NFL.com, penned an excellent piece last year on why Todd Gurley wasn't worth a top-five pick (you can read it here). He was the early leader in the clubhouse for Gurley being overvalued, and it turned out he was right. In the article, Harmon looked at several factors that can contribute to a running back's fantasy potential aside from their own talent. That list included the scoring potency of the offense the runner operates in, how many targets he receives, and the level of play from his quarterback. Almost every factor pointed negatively for Gurley (which should be no surprise at this point), likely contributing to his disappointing fantasy outing. Which brings us to the bigger question: how highly should we draft running backs on potentially bad offenses in 2017?
Looking across the internet at summer ADPs (average draft positions), there are several backs who stand out as potential landmines at the top of fantasy drafts: Jordan Howard, Gurley, Leonard Fournette, Lamar Miller, and Isaiah Crowell. The first four currently have an ADP in the first two rounds, while Crowell is going in the third or fourth, depending on the site. I'll dive into each individual situation in a moment, but first, let's get a quick overview of the uphill battle running backs in bad offenses face when it comes to fantasy production.
Each back mentioned above is ranked around the top 12 in terms of ADP, so we'll use that as our benchmark when examining the historical relevance of the factors Harmon first highlighted in his piece on Gurley. Over the last 10 years, here's how top-12 fantasy backs fared in terms of targets received, playing with a good quarterback, and working in a high-scoring offense.

Finished with 60 or more targets - 40 percent
Finished with 40 to 59 targets - 36.7 percent
Finished with fewer than 40 targets - 23.3 percent
Played with a quarterback ranked in the top-10 in adjusted yards/attempt - 37.5 percent
Played with a quarterback ranked 11th to 17th in adjusted yards/attempt - 20.8 percent
Played with a quarterback ranked 18th or worse in adjusted yards/attempt - 41.7 percent
Played in an offense ranked in the top 8 in points scored - 29 percent
Played in an offense ranked 9th to 16th in points scored - 29 percent
Played in an offense ranked 17th to 24th in points scored - 26 percent
Played in an offense ranked 25th to 32nd in points scored - 16 percent

As you can see, it's not a fantasy death sentence for a back to not hit the trifecta here, but it certainly puts them at a disadvantage to play in a middling offense -- especially one that doesn't figure to score many points. Touchdowns are the lifeblood of fantasy football scoring, especially in standard leagues. Drafting a back too highly who doesn't find pay dirt often can be a disastrous mistake.
Now that we've established this quick baseline, let's look at each of these backs more closely to see if they're currently being overvalued in fantasy, or can overcome their offensive situation.

Jordan Howard, Chicago Bears
2017 ADP: RB8
2016 targets: 50
2016 team rank in points scored: 28th
2017 outlook: Coming off the bench in Week 3 for an injured Jeremy Langford, Howard ran away with the starting job. He crossed the century mark on the ground seven times and finished the year with 99-plus total yards in eight straight games. Unfortunately, his fantasy outlook for 2017 isn't solely dependent on his ability.
The Bears offense lost Jay Cutler (retirement) and Alshon Jeffery (free agency) this offseason, but don't worry, they signed Mike Glennon, Kendall Wright and Markus Wheaton to replace them. Cameron Meredith surprised us in 2016, but can he perform as a No. 1 option all year? Then there's the question of Kevin White and his health, as the third-year pro has played in four games in his two-year career to date. Glennon (with a career 6.4 adjusted yards per attempt average) will have a lot on his plate trying to lift this passing game to new heights (especially with rookie Mitchell Trubisky waiting in the wings). Given the uncertainty in the passing game, volume shouldn't be an issue for Howard, both on the ground and through the air. Offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains has a brief resume to draw from (two years as an OC), but the top back in his offense averages 51 targets per year.
The concern for Howard will be scoring opportunities and efficiency. Per Pro Football Reference the Bears only ran the ball inside the 5-yard line 13 times in 2016, with Howard getting eight chances and Jeremy Langford getting five. Howard scored six rushing touchdowns in 2016, but three came in one game (the snow-drenched nightmare against the 49ers in Week 13). He was a model of efficiency, though, posting sterling numbers with 5.2 yards per carry and 10.3 yards per reception. However, Howard was far better running against soft defensive fronts. He averaged six yards per carry when facing seven or fewer defenders in the box, but just 3.1 yards per carry against eight-plus -- a situation he could encounter frequently in 2017. If his already paltry scoring chances dry up even a bit in 2016, and/or he isn't as efficient as he was as a rookie (given he'll likely be the focus of more defensive attention than Glennon's passing attack), his season could look a whole lot like Gurley's in 2016. Overall touch volume is secure for Howard, but drafters will need to ask themselves if the risk is worth the heavy draft price (first or second round).

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
2017 ADP: RB10
2016 targets: n/a
2016 team rank in points scored: 25th
2017 outlook: The Jaguars didn't select Fournette with the fourth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft to have him ride the pine. The former LSU bruiser will see the field early and often in a new run-heavy approach in Jacksonville, and current expectations have him seeing 15-20 touches per game at least. That's because the team is still paying Chris Ivory a boatload of money, and as of June, T.J. Yeldon remains in the mix.
The concern for Fournette's outlook stems from scoring opportunities, as he's joining an offense run by Blake Bortles, who leads the NFL with 63 turnovers since 2014. Those are drive-killing plays which have a detrimental impact on the scoring chances of running backs. Over the last five years, teams in the bottom-10 in turnover percentage (number of drives ending in a turnover) score on average four fewer rushing touchdowns per year than teams in the top 10. The Jaguars have been in the bottom 10 in turnover percentage in each of the last two seasons but finished 21st in 2014 ... likely because Bortles only played in 14 games (he committed 22 turnovers in those games, though). This hasn't helped Bortles post great adjusted yards per attempt numbers either, as he's finished 28th, 18th, and 34th in that metric from 2016-2014, respectively. However, Fournette's involvement in the passing game could ultimately determine whether he ends up providing enough value to justify his lofty draft cost.
Fournette can catch but posted a career-high of just 19 receptions during his run at LSU. Meanwhile, Yeldon averages 57 targets per year thus far in his career and could remain on the team as a pass-catching complement to Fournette/Ivory. Compounding this worry is that the team wants Bortles to pass less often in 2017 in an attempt to minimize his turnovers. Reduced passing volume overall with a (potentially) established pass-catching back could lower Fournette's outlook as a rookie. This could all change as the season draws nearer and we see this offense in the preseason, but it's worth weighing these possibilities considering Fournette's second or third-round price tag.

Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams
2017 ADP: RB11
2016 targets: 58
2016 team rank in points scored: 32nd
2017 outlook: We've already touched on Gurley's situation, so I'll try to keep this brief. The arrow could be pointing up for Gurley in the long-term with offensive whiz kid Sean McVay now the team's head coach, but other than that there have only been minor improvements (if at all) to Gurley's situation.
Jared Goff will be the full-time starter from Week 1, and while reports from offseason workouts are encouraging, he must improve from his rookie season. Last year, Goff ranked 31st among qualified passers in adjusted yards per attempt, with just five touchdowns and seven interceptions. The offensive line still isn't perfect, but the team shipped draft bust Greg Robinson to Detroit and signed free agent Andrew Whitworth away from the Bengals. More importantly, the passing game still lacks dynamic, down-field options, and the scoring potential for this unit is, well, not great. The Rams have finished 25th or worse in scoring offense in eight of the last 10 years and were the worst scoring offense in the league in 2016. McVay could usher in an improvement, but it will likely take more than one offseason for a real turnaround.
Assuming Lance Dunbar doesn't steal too much work as a receiving back, Gurley should be able to maintain his value as a mid-tier RB2 thanks to work in the passing game. He's a capable receiver and caught 43 of his 58 targets last year for 327 yards. Offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur recently said he wants to "marry" the rushing and passing attacks for the Rams this year, which seems to indicate Gurley could be treated as a three-down back. Pure volume won't be an issue for Gurley, but drafters must weigh the risks of his quarterback play and scoring potential when considering him as a top-12 running back pick in drafts.

Lamar Miller, Houston Texans
2017 ADP: RB13
2016 targets: 39
2016 team rank in points scored: 28th
2017 outlook: Many thought Miller was under-utilized while in Miami and he would take the fantasy world by storm as a true featured back in Houston. Yeah ... about that. Miller saw plenty of volume, setting new career-highs with 268 attempts and 299 total touches, but his efficiency stats plummeted. He posted the lowest yards per carry and yards per reception figures of his career (4.0 and 6.1, respectively). The Texans offensive line was injured and Miller endured suboptimal quarterback play all year, both of which should be improved in 2017. Center Nick Martin will be back, and the Texans will either have Tom Savage or rookie Deshaun Watson under center.
Savage seemed to provide a spark in his brief stint as a starter last year, while Watson was one of college football's most electric and accomplished passers of the last two years. The Texans have playmakers on the outside (DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller once he's back from a broken collarbone, Braxton Miller, C.J. Fiedorowicz), so a bump in QB play could lift this team from the scoring cellar. Last year's primary starter, Brock Osweiler, finished 30th in adjusted yards per attempt with a paltry 5.0 average.
The larger concern/question for Miller is how the drafting of D'Onta Foreman will impact his workload/scoring chances. Foreman is a bruising back and a great size-speed athlete (6-foot-1, 233 pounds, 4.5 40-time), leading some to believe he could see work near the goal line. Miller converted five of his eight rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line last season into scores, but fending off Foreman could prove difficult. There's a chance a reduced workload could bring back the Lamar Miller fantasy fans were salivating over during the 2014 and 2015 seasons, but right now the deck looks stacked against Miller from climbing any higher than a middling finish among fantasy running backs.

Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns
2017 ADP: RB14
2016 targets: 53
2016 team rank in points scored: 31st
2017 outlook: Crowell is the lowest of these backs based on current ADP, but is far and away receiving the most hype in the fantasy community. He was the best back on the Browns last year (sorry Duke Johnson), and head coach Hue Jackson has said he wants to run the ball even more in 2017 behind his revamped offensive line after acquiring JC Tretter and Kevin Zeitler in free agency.
Per the NFL's Next Gen Stats tracking technology, Crowell averaged nearly as many yards per carry against defenses with seven men or fewer in the box (4.83) as he did against stacked fronts with 8-plus defenders in the box (4.81). Granted, he did have an 85-yard touchdown run against a stacked front that inflates that total, but the home-run play is in Crowell's arsenal so we shouldn't discount it. Cody Kessler, the presumed starter for the Browns, posted a surprising 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt average as a rookie, which was the 20th best mark among quarterbacks with at least 195 attempts. DeShone Kizer, the team's second-round pick this year, averaged 8.5 adjusted yards per attempt while in college but could be hard-pressed to keep that number elevated if he's forced into the starting role as a rookie.
Either way, Crowell should be attached to at least average quarterback play in 2017, which along with the influx of offensive talent (David Njoku, Kenny Britt), could lift this team to new scoring heights. Furthermore, Crowell received just shy of 70 percent of the team's carries inside the 5-yard line last season, indicating he's the favorite in scoring situations. As for the passing game, Crowell saw 53 targets a year ago, and won't be ignored in that respect even if the team slightly prefers Johnson as a pass-catching back (74 targets in 2016). Given his current draft price and solid overall situation, Crowell feels like the safest back of this bunch to return on the investment fantasy managers will sink into him.
There you have it. Remember on draft day that running backs on potentially bad offenses aren't created equal, and there are numerous factors that can contribute to their success outside of their own talent and opportunity. Continue to read the tea leaves this offseason and be sure to make the most informed choice possible on draft day. Your hopes of a fantasy championship could count on it.

 

[Greenbacks]

Matt Ryan leads 2017 overvalued fantasy football QBs.

Value is in the eye of the beholder. That's a saying, right? If not, I'm making it one. Because how fantasy managers view a player will have a lot to do with that player's value in drafts. Of course, it's possible for some players to get a little too overvalued in plenty of leagues with drafters reaching for a guy in a spot where his production might not warrant it.
Consider this column to be your fantasy buzzkill.
When it comes to quarterbacks, it's pretty easy to find players whose draft value might not match up to their potential. At a position currently experiencing as much depth as the fantasy quarterback spot, it's easy to figure out where other values can be found beyond just the top of the ADP charts. This isn't to say that the quarterbacks on this list aren't good. It's just to say you can probably find better options.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (ADP: Pick 5.10)
I'm not going to try and weave some tale of advanced analytics or obscure statistical metrics to try and convince you that Andrew Luck is #actually bad. It wouldn't make sense, you wouldn't believe it and you'd rightly flame me on Twitter for it.
Luck is on this list not because he's some overrated quarterback just getting by on the strength of his charm and Civil War general-style beard. He's on the list because right now a quarterback who currently isn't throwing a football shouldn't be the fourth signal-caller off the board.
When we last left our footballing hero, he was being placed on the PUP list, continuing his rehab from shoulder surgery and being prohibited from throwing anything heavier than a tennis ball. Combine that with a propensity to take hits behind a poor offensive line and the risk factor ratchets up a bit.

Value options: Kirk Cousins (8.11), Philip Rivers (10.02)

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (ADP: Pick 6.02)
I'm honestly a little surprised to see Ryan going in the sixth round after his career year in 2016. Frequently when a player puts together such a special campaign, the tendency is to see his ADP over inflated the following year. That hasn't quite happened to Ryan.
Nonetheless, here he sits smack dab in the middle of a column about overvalued quarterbacks ... and for good reason. So much of what Ryan did last year sits as an outlier to the rest of his career. In 2016, the Falcons quarterback posted a touchdown rate of 7.1 percent -- far better than his previous career-high of 5.2 (set in 2012) and light years ahead of his career 4.7 percent touchdown rate.
While no one gets fantasy points for passer rating -- if you do, you should re-evaluate your life decisions -- it's worth noting that Ryan was historically good in that category last year. His 117.1 mark was the fifth-best single-season number in league history. That's a pretty lofty number for someone who's career passer rating was 90.9 entering 2016.
Reasonable people can agree that while it's possible for Ryan to have another season like 2016, it's also very difficult to replicate. Adding to the degree of difficulty is the fact that the Falcons will have a new offensive coordinator in Steve Sarkisian, who has never piloted an offense at the NFL level. Even with a slew of talent in the attack, expect there to be some hiccups and growing pains as everyone gets used to a new scheme. That's a lot of uncertainty for a sixth-round fantasy quarterback.

Value options: Matthew Stafford (10.11), Eli Manning (11.03)

Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (ADP: Pick 6.11)
I have a lot of friends who are big Fresno State Bulldog and Raiders fans, so I'm certain I'll hear about this from them. Alas, my job here is to be as objective as possible about it. So to all my friends in California's central valley ... can we still be friends?
There's no doubt that Carr and the Raiders have been exciting to watch but the numbers have yet to bear out that he should be the sixth quarterback off the board in fantasy drafts. Entering his fourth season in the league, Carr has yet to post a 4,000-yard passing season. His 2016 total of 3,937 total passing yards and 262.5 yards per game ranked a fairly pedestrian 14th in the NFL last year.
Equally pedestrian is Carr's 3.68 air yards per attempt average from a season ago. That number certainly doesn't preclude the Raiders quarterback from putting up decent fantasy totals but it does put more pressure on his pass-catchers to pick up yards after the catch. Oakland has been in the top half of the league in YAC in each of the last two seasons. That's a tough way to succeed as a fantasy signal-caller, though.
Oh ... and one more thing. Last season, the Raiders had the third-most dropped passes of any team in the league. It's an issue that is out of Carr's hands -- literally and figuratively -- but it does lead to plenty of yards, touchdowns and fantasy points being left on the field. Literally and figuratively.

Value options: Andy Dalton (12.03), Sam Bradford (undrafted)

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (ADP: Pick 7.12)
I wrote a little bit about Newton in my recent look at some players who could bounce back in 2017. The tl;dr in that piece was that Newton is still recovering from shoulder surgery and six seasons worth of punishment as a quarterback who frequently runs and takes a lot of hits. That likely led to Newton recording fewer than 100 rush attempts for the first time in his career.
But if you thought last season was going to completely change the way Cam approached the position, you are sorely mistaken. Lions roaring and all of that. It's understandable. Running has always been a huge part of Newton's game and it's silly to think he'd completely abandon it at this point in his career. At the same time, it's apparent that the Panthers would prefer that he stays out of harm's way as much as possible.
Which begs the question ... is Newton worthy of being drafted as a top 10 fantasy quarterback if he's not earning nearly as many yards on the ground? The fact that in most leagues rushing touchdowns count for six points helps his overall outlook. But he is still primarily a quarterback, meaning most of his fantasy production will come through the air. That's worrisome for a player not known for his passing accuracy, with just one 4,000-yard season to his name and a lack of game-breaking pass-catchers.

Value options: Dak Prescott (10.03), Tyrod Taylor (11.11)

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: Pick 8.04)
Roethlisberger is blessed by playing in a Steelers offense that is loaded to the gills with weapons. But it hasn't necessarily translated into elite fantasy production in the past couple of seasons. Part of it has been a propensity to turn the ball over at an alarming rate. In the past two seasons, Big Ben has a 50:29 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That's always going to tamp down your potential fantasy production.
What also can hold you back is not having nearly as many opportunities to throw the football. In each of the past three seasons, Pittsburgh's share of pass plays has decreased as Le'Veon Bell and the running game have taken more of a focus. Fewer attempts plus increased turnovers is no way to win friends and influence people.
There's also still the matter of Ben's home and road splits. It's become common knowledge that Roethlisberger is a solid play at Heinz Field but best avoided whenever he leaves the Three Rivers. That makes him a platoon fantasy option at best ... which isn't the kind of thing you want from the quarterback taken ninth off the board in most drafts.

Value options: Blake Bortles (14.01), Joe Flacco (14.12)

 

[Greenbacks]

DeAndre Hopkins among overvalued 2017 fantasy WRs.

Writing a piece on "overvalued" players is always a bit of a chore. You never want to sound too negative on players who are devoting their lives to a physically demanding sport for our entertainment. Yet, at the same time, I'm here to discuss fantasy football, where finding values in fantasy drafts is a key ingredient to winning and taking a player too early in drafts can set your team up for failure.
My contribution to this series will once again be the wide receiver position. Below are my top five most overvalued wideouts in drafts (based on average draft position - ADP - from FantasyFootballCalculator.com). I do honestly think these players are good at what they do, but based on a number of factors (projected target share, quarterback play, age, injuries, etc.) I feel they're currently costing drafters too much. Landing on this list doesn't mean these players are un-draftable. All of them could be significant producers on a fantasy squad this fall. All I'm saying is if you can wait a round or two to take them, do it. The rewards for your squad could be even bigger.

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans
Current ADP: 28th overall, WR12
I've long been a fan of Nuk Hopkins, touting him as a sleeper before his breakout sophomore campaign. And while I still think he's a phenomenal wide receiver set to produce solid numbers, taking him as the 12th pass catcher off the board is investing in him at his absolute statistical ceiling.
Hopkins was the WR15 in 2014, WR6 in 2016 and (gulp) WR36 in 2016. What went wrong? For starters, his quarterback play was abysmal. Brock Osweiler ranked dead last in touchdown rate (2.9 percent) and yards per attempt (5.8) among qualified passers. Also exacerbating the issue was Hopkins' decreased target share, as he saw a respectable 26 percent of the team looks in 2016 after notching 31 percent in 2015. That will likely be the case moving forward as well, with the team using the running game to help protect Tom Savage (two career starts) or rookie Deshaun Watson (zero career starts) under center. The Texans finished 28th in scoring a year ago, and anything other than a marginal improvement in that category in 2017 would be an upset. With an elite defense and emphasis on the running game (the team also drafted D'Onta Foreman this spring), scoring opportunities could be harder to come by for Hopkins. So, to add this all up we have a wide receiver with a depressed target total being delivered by an unproven starting quarterback in what figures to be a low-ish scoring offense. See why he might be a tad overvalued?
A reasonable projection for Hopkins would be around 150 targets, 80 catches, 1,100 yards and six touchdowns. On the surface, that's not too bad, but in fantasy that amounts to around 152 fantasy points, which typically would land him in the WR17-20 range. Could Hopkins find a connection with his new quarterback and go on a crazy run as he did in 2015? Sure. That's certainly in his range of outcomes. However, the signs are pointing to a solid but unspectacular 2017 season from Hopkins, which isn't what you want associated with a top-12 wide receiver pick.

Other players to consider in this range: Doug Baldwin, Amari Cooper, Rob Gronkowski

Brandin Cooks, New England Patriots
Current ADP: 29th overall, WR13
Brandin Cooks rides into New England coming off back-to-back top-12 fantasy seasons. Yet, despite his recent performances, youth, crazy athleticism, and recent attachment to Tom Brady, I still think Cooks is being drafted WAY too high. Let's examine why.
Over the last two seasons, Cooks has been a boom-or-bust fantasy player, posting 19 games with fewer than 10 points, but nine with 16-plus. That's not a huge issue, however, if you just ride the roller coaster and start him every week. What could be an issue is the target share he'll command in a crowded New England offense. Cooks received 17.4 and 19.3 percent of the team targets in 2016 and 2015, respectively, but now joins a team that features target hogs Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. As Graham Barfield noted, since Gronk joined the New England in 2010, only two Patriots wide receivers have finished in the top-12 in scoring. Diving in deeper, multiple wide receivers saw 100-plus targets in only two of those years, 2014 (Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell), and 2012 (Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd). And neither of those squads boasted the depth the Patriots currently offer in their passing attack, with Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Malcolm Mitchell, Dwayne Allen, James White and Rex Burkhead all likely to see some work. In the last two years, the Patriots have distributed over 22 percent of their team targets to running backs as well, further cutting into the potential pie left over for Cooks. Lastly, not to pile on here, but Cooks' track record outside the comfy confines of domes is, well, disturbing.
Now, Cooks is an exceptional athlete and could certainly reach his current asking price in fantasy. However, unless the Patriots buck past trends and totally reinvent their offense with Cooks, he isn't likely to see the targets he'll need to return value as the WR13. Those bust weeks could become far more frequent, leading to endless amounts of fantasy frustration. Save yourself the trouble and pass on Cooks in the early rounds.

Other players to consider in this range: Doug Baldwin, Amari Cooper, Rob Gronkowski

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
Current ADP: 41st overall, WR19
The Davante Adams breakout season many expected in 2015 happened a year too late, as the former Fresno State star became a fantasy stud in 2016, catching 12 touchdowns and nearly 1,000 yards. Attached to an Aaron Rodgers-led offense that figures to score points almost at will, why is Adams currently being overvalued? Let's dive in.
Touchdowns can be fickle beasts to predict in the NFL, but red zone targets can help give us a sense as to whether or not a player will at least be given chances to score. Adams commanded 20 percent of the red zone looks in 2016, scoring seven of his 12 touchdowns while close to the painted area. That's not too bad, but reaching that share again could prove difficult. For starters, while Randall Cobb appeared in 13 games last year, that doesn't paint an accurate picture of how injured he was during those games. Many forget that throughout the season Cobb battled ankle, hamstring, back, and neck injuries. Cobb averaged 23.7 percent of Rodgers' red zone targets from 2013-2015, so if he returns to the form we saw late last year in the playoffs he could eat into Adams' high-value targets. Same goes for Martellus Bennett, as the team hopes he can be a more consistent presence than Jared Cook was last year. The only sure thing in the red zone for Rodgers is Jordy Nelson, who averages nearly 30 percent of his quarterback's targets in that space since 2013 (not counting 2015, when Nelson missed the year with an injury). Now, even if Adams' red zone targets sink, we do know he's capable of scoring from distance. But relying on long touchdowns can be a frustrating fantasy gambit -- just ask anyone who's started DeSean Jackson every week the past several years.
Adams did make the leap last year as a player, progressing as a route-runner and showing surer hands than the pair that plagued him in 2015. However, there are real concerns about his market share in the Packers crowded offense. I expect Adams to be fantasy relevant once again, but WR19 feels a bit too rich given the return of a healthy Cobb, acquisition of Bennett, and ascendance of Ty Montgomery. If any quarterback can sustain several top-level pass-catchers in fantasy, it's Aaron Rodgers, but drafters would be wise to insulate themselves from risk a bit and take Adams later than his current ADP.

Other players to consider in this range: Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant, Michael Crabtree

Brandon Marshall, New York Giants
Current ADP: 58th overall, WR25
How does a player with three double-digit touchdown seasons and two 1,500-plus yard seasons in the past five years land on this list? Targets could be an issue, as is the potential one-two punch Father Time is serving up to both Eli Manning and Brandon Marshall.
Manning's season-long numbers were OK last year, but over the last half of the season, it was clear something wasn't quite right with the two-time Super Bowl champion. More passes were one-hopping to receivers, and he was underthrowing deep passes. Case in point, his yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt both fell by over a yard during the final eight games of the year (7.32 to 6.12 and 6.93 to 5.84, respectively). This isn't the end-all, be-all for a fantasy quarterback by any stretch (Manning still threw 14 touchdowns in those games), but it is worrisome if this trend is a sign that Manning's arm strength is waning as he prepares to enter his age 36 season. Speaking of age, Marshall is no spring chicken, suiting up for his 12th NFL season at the age of 33. Plenty of old quarterbacks and receivers have found success in fantasy for countless years, but when you couple these age concerns with Marshall's projected target share in New York, a WR25 asking price starts to get a bit dicey.
Not sure if you've ever heard of him before, but this Odell Beckham Jr. character is pretty darn good at the football -- and at hogging targets in the Giants passing attack. His target share over the last three seasons has been 28.3, 25.4, and *27.8 (* only counting the 12 games he played in 2014). Last year's outstanding rookie Sterling Shepard isn't going anywhere either, and he saw 17.5 percent of the looks last year. Add in rookie Evan Engram, Paul Perkins, Shane Vereen, and a few other randos and suddenly Marshall could be looking for targets like Milton was looking for cake in "Office Space." I kid, but in all honesty, without an injury to Beckham or Shepard, Marshall will have a hard time even approaching 20 percent of the targets. Some have argued he could save his fantasy value with red-zone touchdowns, which makes sense. After all, Marshall has only seen fewer than 20 targets in the red zone in a season three times in his career, and 62 of his 82 career scores have come from inside that space. However, OBJ and Shepard combined for 33 of the Giants' 60 targets in that space a year ago. Marshall could once again have an uphill battle trying to come close to his career averages. When you add all of this up, there are simply too many chips stacked against Marshall for me to get in at his current draft cost.

Other players to consider in this range: Larry Fitzgerald, Golden Tate, Jamison Crowder

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins
Current ADP: 91st overall, WR37
The Dolphins and fantasy fans have had big expectations for DeVante Parker ever since he was the 14th overall selection in the 2015 NFL Draft. Since then the combination of Parker adjusting to the NFL game, injuries and the Dolphins' offensive shift have kept the former Louisville star from having a true breakout season. Will it come in 2017? There are those who want to believe, but I feel the need to be the Scully to their Mulder and preach a more rational approach. Banking on Parker's breakout with an eighth-round pick feels too risky.
Parker possesses undeniable talent and the type of athletic build teams covet in a No. 1 wide receiver (6-foot-3, 212 pounds). He's flashed eye-popping playmaking ability at the pro level, but has also struggled with inconsistencies in his game. He's an early frontrunner for "most hyped player in training camp" this summer, but that doesn't mean anything once games start. Last season, the Dolphins underwent an offensive shift which is the biggest reason to avoid Parker at his current price.
From Weeks 1-5, the offense's run-pass split was 37-63, and the team posted a 1-4 record. However, with Jay Ajayi entrenched as the offensive focal point from Week 6 on, the run-pass split shifted to 51-49, and the team posted a 9-2 record. Parker's targets per game dropped from 6.25 to 5.6 during this philosophical change. Making matters worse, the team still has Jarvis Landry (averages 28 percent of the team targets since 2015) and Kenny Stills (signed a four-year, $32 million extension this offseason) eating up plenty of looks. With Tannehill still working his way back from a partially torn ACL late last season and Ajayi expecting even more work, Parker's small workload in a low-volume passing offense will be tough to trust in fantasy at an eighth-round asking price.

Other players to consider in this range: Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, John Brown

 

[Greenbacks]

[h=1]15 players to target in fantasy football drafts in 2017.[/h]Fantasy drafts are rapidly approaching (or are already underway). That means one of the most frequent questions asked to us analysts is "what round should I take PLAYER X" in? This is hard to say, because no two leagues will draft the same way, as they'll be filled with a different makeup of unique human beings with their own valuations of players. Some leagues are full of people who study fantasy religiously all summer. Others are made up of casual coworkers who will draft entirely based off the rankings in the draft room.
Nevertheless, below I highlight one player in each round (1 through 15) based on NFL.com average draft position (ADP) who I'm completely comfortable with selecting. Now, before you flood the comments and my mentions on Twitter with cries of "SO AND SO WILL NEVER LAST THAT LONG RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE," know that NFL.com's users skew more casual. There are an estimated 59.3 million people who will be playing fantasy this year, and not all of them are "experts." Moreover, this list isn't meant as a round-by-round draft guide. These are just players I like in their respective rounds. Those of you who expect these players to go earlier than their listed round in your league should consider the player's inclusion on the list a seal of approval from me to draft them when you deem appropriate.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK
1

Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers



Rather than heaping praise on one of the consensus top picks, I wanted to shine a little light on Melvin Gordon. After failing to score a touchdown as a rookie, Gordon hit paydirt 12 times in 13 games in 2017, finishing as the RB8 in standard leagues. He'll return as the team's bell cow this fall with little competition for touches. Also working in Gordon's favor is the revamped offensive line and the arrival of Anthony Lynn (a former RBs coach in Buffalo) as the team's head coach. Even if his touchdown totals regress in this loaded offense, Gordon's volume is undeniable and he'll be the featured back in a high-scoring offense. He's a great pick at the back end of Round 1 with a safe floor.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

2

Michael Thomas, WR, Saints



Michael Thomas surprised plenty with his rookie performance, notching 92 receptions, 1,137 yards and nine touchdowns. Now, we're all left wondering what he'll do for an encore. With Brandin Cooks moving to New England via trade, Thomas is the unquestioned No. 1 option in a Saints passing attack that has finished second in the league in pass attempts in each of the past two years. Drew Brees doesn't have a history of pummeling one receiver with targets, but Thomas should see over 20 percent of the looks with plenty coming in the red zone. He led the team in that space with 19 looks last year.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

3

Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks



I listed Doug Baldwin among my must-own receivers earlier this summer, so let me once again wax poetic about his merits -- especially if he falls to the third round. Baldwin's target share in Seattle is consistent (22, 21, 22 percent, respectively since 2014) even as the team's pass attempts have increased in each of those seasons (454, 489, 567). He's delivered back-to-back top-10 fantasy finishes in both standard and PPR formats while expanding his game beyond the slot. In 2015, 95 percent of Baldwin's yardage (1,011) and 93 percent of his touchdowns (13) came from the slot, per Next Gen Stats. In 2016, those percentages fell to 59 for yardage (662) and 57 for touchdowns (four). Baldwin proved he could win outside, posting a 78 percent catch rate and 15.36 yards per catch average when lined up out wide. The Seahawks passing attack could take off this year, and Baldwin is in a great place to ball out yet again.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

4

Terrelle Pryor, WR, Redskins



By now you likely know Washington lost over 200 targets with Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson departing in free agency this spring. Yes, Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed remain and will see plenty of looks, but make no mistake -- Terrelle Pryor is the team's No. 1 wide receiver. He's a capable downfield threat who will absorb Jackson's old role, while also being a prominent option in the red zone. Somewhere around 120 targets is a reasonable projection for Pryor, and he should be able to do plenty of damage with opportunities in the Redskins offense. Pryor certainly could have a lower floor with so many mouths to feed in Washington, but his ceiling is that of a top-10 fantasy wide out and is worth chasing in the fourth round.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

5

Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings



If your roster construction follows a similar path to the one I'm sort of building in this piece (RB-WR-WR-WR), then Dalvin Cook is an excellent high-upside RB2 to target here. While Latavius Murray was on the PUP list briefly, Cook went out and wowed in practice and on the preseason field. He's a multi-talented back who should lead this running back group in touches with ease. He may lose out on a few scoring opportunities to Murray near the goal line, but Cook's upside in a sneakily dangerous Vikings offense is tremendous.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

6

Frank Gore, RB, Colts



A good way to insulate a fantasy squad from the risk of a high-upside youngster like Cook is to back up that pick with a stable veteran. There hasn't been a more stable veteran in fantasy than Frank Gore, who has amassed more than 1,200 total yards for 11 STRAIGHT YEARS. The Colts may need to rely on Gore even more in the early portions of the season with Andrew Luck's timetable for returning from shoulder surgery still murky. Gore isn't likely to win you many weeks on his own, but he'll rarely burn you with a goose egg in the stat sheet.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

7

Adrian Peterson, RB, Saints



I know it might seem a little bit like we're forming an AARP contingent in this fantasy backfield with these last two picks, but Adrian Peterson is just two years removed from a 1,400-yard, dominant campaign. The reason he falls this far is due to the crowded committee he's now a part of in New Orleans. If the A.D. of old emerges, this pick is a total steal. If he's a role player alongside Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, then at least he can have some flex value and you didn't waste too high of a pick on an aging committee member.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

8

Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings



The Stefon Diggs hype train among fantasy analysis is close to careening off the tracks judging by how high he goes in "expert" mocks, but in more casual leagues the Vikings wideout is coming at a huge discount. On the surface, arm chair analysts can poke a lot of holes in the case for Diggs being a dominant fantasy receiver: Sam Bradford is his quarterback, he's smallish, he's been hurt a bunch, the Vikings offense isn't that great, etc. However, when you look more closely, Bradford played quite well last season and Diggs just missed 1,000 yards in only 13 games. Now fully healthy with a better offensive line and running game around him, Diggs could truly break out in fantasy this year.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

9

Pierre Garcon, WR, 49ers



Much like with Diggs, Garcon is criminally underrated by more casual players. When it comes to finding valuable later-round wide receivers, volume is what to chase, and Garcon should be swimming in targets this year. With no legitimate options alongside him, it'd be an upset if Garcon doesn't ecplipse 150 targets. That total would put him in the top 12 among wide receivers in targets in each of the last five years. During that span, only six wideouts of 60 to reach that threshold of targets failed to finish as at least a top-24 wide receiver. A WR2 in Round 9? Give me that all day, please and thanks.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

10

Rob Kelley, RB, Redskins



While the fantasy community assumed Samaje Perine would immediately enter Washington and steal the starting job from Rob Kelley, it appears Kelley had other plans. Slimmed down and playing well, "Fat Rob" appears set to hold onto his leading role in this backfield for awhile. He'll still lose passing down work to Chris Thompson, but a starting running back on a high-scoring offense is a nice piece to add to any fantasy roster in the double digit rounds, especially in standard scoring leagues.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

11

Kenny Britt, WR, Browns



I've written about Kenny Britt so many times this summer I could probably do this in my sleep, but here's the long and short of why he's an elite late-round option. Last year, Britt managed over 1,000 yards and five touchdowns with Case Keenum and Jared Goff slinging him the rock and no other reliable threat in the passing game. In Cleveland he'll presumably have an upgrade at quarterback but most definitely has an upgrade in terms of the talent around him thanks to Corey Coleman, David Njoku, and Duke Johnson / Isaiah Crowell. Another 1,000-yard season is well within reason for Britt, and in the later rounds, that's hard to ignore.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

12

Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers



While it could be tempting to draft one of the top tight ends early, more often than not waiting on the position is the right strategy. Antonio Gates hanging around the Chargers for one more year has allowed Hunter Henry to slide down draft boards. While he might go earlier than the 12th round in some leagues, his touchdown-upside makes him a huge value here. If you miss on Henry, other late-round options to target include Jack Doyle, Eric Ebron and Coby Fleener.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

13

Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals



Whether or not you believe in Andy Dalton as a fantasy passer speaks to how closely you follow both the game of football and fantasy. Everything that could go wrong for Dalton last year did. A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert got hurt. The running game stalled. His offensive line fell apart. As a result Dalton posted a career-low 3.2 touchdown rate. In 2015, prior to injuring his thumb Dalton was on pace to finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback. Now, he's coming at a steep discount despite having an influx of new talent, Joe Mixon and John Ross, and a healthy Green/Eifert. As JJ Zachariason of NumberFire noted, when both Green and Eifert are healthy Dalton has a touchdown rate of 5.59 -- that would have been the eighth-highest mark in the league last year.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

14

Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals



The Bengals backfield is a mess. The team drafted Joe Mixon in the second round, but Giovani Bernard has recovered quicker than expected from a torn ACL last year, and the drum beat keeps building that Jeremy Hill could remain the starter for awhile. All of this makes it totally worth throwing a late-round dart at Bernard. Hill has struggled mightily the last two years and Mixon is still a rookie. Bernard could at the very least slide into the third-down/hurry-up role, if not more. Plus, we've seen him lead this backfield before, so if injuries hit this unit he could be a steal.