everything in the plus side....good job...thanks
That's very true and the reason why overall I am quite pleased with the system. But when something turns, you gotta know when to bail. I've given it three weeks and unfortunately have lost back 30 units. But I'm walking away a winner and have a strong BR for football season.
This inter-league stuff is very hard to cap, wait till it's over & come back strong, you are a very solid capper whose efforts are appreciated.
could be that accuscore just sucks terribly with interleague due to what accuscore is based on (since teams don't know each other as often, limited amount of statistics -> less the system can work with -> terrible results). still a week of interleague to go though...
Unfortunately the entire month of June has sucked. I've lost 30 units this month and it hasn't all been interleague....at least I don't think it has.
Anyway, thank goodness I stopped when I did, I of course checked this morning to see what the plays would've been and I'd have gone 0-3 today. That pretty much seals it for me.
I am going to tinker some more and may try something new after the All-Star break.
I'm also packing it in for the remainder of the baseball season. I use a similar system, and usually my plays agree with Broncos (there are a few that he has that I don't have and vice versa). FWIW, I did make 4 bets today, and lost all 4, so that's it for me. I've given Accuscore plenty of time, and I canceled my subscription today.
Broncos, I know we had a nice run before the slump, but I'm beginning to think that it was a fluke (kind of like if we flip a coin a billion times and track it, there will be some periods where it comes up heads 70 out of 100 times). Also, I would exercise extreme caution if you plan on using it in the NBA again for next season, because you caught it during a hot streak, but it didn't do all that well for the entire season (about 52%).
Good luck, and thanks for your efforts.
Broncos, I know we had a nice run before the slump, but I'm beginning to think that it was a fluke (kind of like if we flip a coin a billion times and track it, there will be some periods where it comes up heads 70 out of 100 times). Also, I would exercise extreme caution if you plan on using it in the NBA again for next season, because you caught it during a hot streak, but it didn't do all that well for the entire season (about 52%).
Good luck, and thanks for your efforts.
All of their NBA plays hit at that. I didn't play all of them, only those over 60%. Accuscore doesn't have a separate tracking for different percentage ranges so unless it was followed from the beginning of the year, there is no way of knowing whether or not the NBA system would hit at a high rate for an entire year.
Let me guess for your baseball plays today, three of them were:
Colorado RL
Twins RL
Seattle RL
???
Those would've been my three for the day.....all losers. Just very glad I bailed yesterday or else I would've lost another 9 units or $2700.
You may be right about just getting lucky with the hot run. Whatever it was, I made more in the past month and a half in baseball than I've ever made during an entire year. I hit several big parlays and am very very happy with my profits. I've made roughly $35K during the season (was $45K on May 31 so I lost quite a bit back during this terrible run).
BOL Vic! I'm sure I'll see you around football season. If you play Last Man Standing at Stations, maybe I'll see you up there some time.
I understand it's been interleague, but that's only been the past week. I've been losing since June 1. I think I've had 4 or 5 winning days the entire month and only one was a decent winning day, the others were 1 or 2 units. Most of my losing days were larger and I just got crushed during the past three weeks. I've made my money, now I'll wait for football.
Interesting, I thought it had been running exceptionally bad during interleague, but the big part was indeed before that started.
During interleague a loss of about 5 units, mainly caused by the total plays for the RL favs even weilded a small profit...
Bad news obviously, for if it had only been interleague it would've been a matter of waiting, now on the other hand...
During interleague a loss of about 5 units, mainly caused by the total plays for the RL favs even weilded a small profit...
Bad news obviously, for if it had only been interleague it would've been a matter of waiting, now on the other hand...
New idea?
Hi All:
OK, time to jump in.
Well, before following the Run lines with Broncos, I was using Accuscore for Baseball ML games. I was picking almost the same games as Broncos only with ML. So they were about the same with a few differences.
I really like the RL bets more for all the reasons that have been listed here...ability to catch up quick with less wins, etc. After a bad Saturday like everyone else here tailing, I kept going yesterday.
I kept playing Sunday and O-fered, which really sucks. I also chased (just a bit) with the Angels and Over (slight edge) on Sunday night. LAD and under was the result. Sunday was funday!
Monday morning I began to actually read the public side of the site and this is what I saw.
Sorry for the bad copy and paste. I will include the link for those wanted to read the spreadsheet as it was written.
http://accuscore.com/edge/handicapping/accuscore-expert-analysis/
Don't know if the link will work directly, but you can copy and paste into your browser.
"Overall, returns have been best when the Home Team wins 45-65% of simulations. In these games AccuScore is +4175 in Side Value picks and +3644 in ML picks."
2009 SEASON AS OF 6/22
SIDE VALUE
MONEY LINE
GAME TYPE
RIGHT
WRONG
ACC
PROFIT
RIGHT
WRONG
ACC
PROFIT
HOME TEAM WINS 45-65%
372
337
52.5%
4175
408
301
57.5%
3644
HOME TEAM WINS <45% OR >=65%
164
158
50.9%
-3239
169
153
52.5%
-3596
I could be going with selected memory, which is dangerous. My records are not at all perfect, although somewhat accurate.
My review of my RL results seems to mimic this incredible difference in results. If your pool of games only includes games where the home team wins from 46-64% of the simulation games (As is actually found in the spreadsheet, I believe...<45%...<65%).
I see a bunch of big favorites with smaller RL returns that qualify as a Broncos selection but lose or win in the late innings by only one run.
I also see a bunch of games that offered huge RL returns as small favs or sometimes small dogs even that may not have qualified with a 46% simulated win percentage. Very often they did not win, although to be fair, when they did they paid big.
I gotta believe that if a new pool of plays just centered around those that first qualify as a 46-64% pool play and then look to the RL for a second qualifier, our results would have been substantially better. And less plays.
In another words, in BBall bigger dogs and bigger favs are not nearly as reliable to exceed their expectations (via RL bets...which is what the bet really is since it is a team that goes beyond just winning the game) than closer contests.
Oh, and I would drop the Interleague plays as well as I just think they runfar differently than regular games. Who thought up this Interleague crap anyway?
Just my thoughts. I could be very wrong. Best of luck to all.
Catch
Hi All:
OK, time to jump in.
Well, before following the Run lines with Broncos, I was using Accuscore for Baseball ML games. I was picking almost the same games as Broncos only with ML. So they were about the same with a few differences.
I really like the RL bets more for all the reasons that have been listed here...ability to catch up quick with less wins, etc. After a bad Saturday like everyone else here tailing, I kept going yesterday.
I kept playing Sunday and O-fered, which really sucks. I also chased (just a bit) with the Angels and Over (slight edge) on Sunday night. LAD and under was the result. Sunday was funday!
Monday morning I began to actually read the public side of the site and this is what I saw.
Sorry for the bad copy and paste. I will include the link for those wanted to read the spreadsheet as it was written.
http://accuscore.com/edge/handicapping/accuscore-expert-analysis/
Don't know if the link will work directly, but you can copy and paste into your browser.
"Overall, returns have been best when the Home Team wins 45-65% of simulations. In these games AccuScore is +4175 in Side Value picks and +3644 in ML picks."
2009 SEASON AS OF 6/22
SIDE VALUE
MONEY LINE
GAME TYPE
RIGHT
WRONG
ACC
PROFIT
RIGHT
WRONG
ACC
PROFIT
HOME TEAM WINS 45-65%
372
337
52.5%
4175
408
301
57.5%
3644
HOME TEAM WINS <45% OR >=65%
164
158
50.9%
-3239
169
153
52.5%
-3596
I could be going with selected memory, which is dangerous. My records are not at all perfect, although somewhat accurate.
My review of my RL results seems to mimic this incredible difference in results. If your pool of games only includes games where the home team wins from 46-64% of the simulation games (As is actually found in the spreadsheet, I believe...<45%...<65%).
I see a bunch of big favorites with smaller RL returns that qualify as a Broncos selection but lose or win in the late innings by only one run.
I also see a bunch of games that offered huge RL returns as small favs or sometimes small dogs even that may not have qualified with a 46% simulated win percentage. Very often they did not win, although to be fair, when they did they paid big.
I gotta believe that if a new pool of plays just centered around those that first qualify as a 46-64% pool play and then look to the RL for a second qualifier, our results would have been substantially better. And less plays.
In another words, in BBall bigger dogs and bigger favs are not nearly as reliable to exceed their expectations (via RL bets...which is what the bet really is since it is a team that goes beyond just winning the game) than closer contests.
Oh, and I would drop the Interleague plays as well as I just think they runfar differently than regular games. Who thought up this Interleague crap anyway?
Just my thoughts. I could be very wrong. Best of luck to all.
Catch
I don't remember exactly but I do recall the majority of my RL plays did have the winner at about that range. That's a large range and since my RL plays depend largely on RL win %, the ML win % must be enough to allow for a higher RL win %.
For example, the majority of my RL plays had a RL win % between 45 and 55%. With those RL %'s, the ML % is usually 55-65% or so. So in effect, my plays have utilized what you proposed without even meaning to. There may be a few different plays here and there, but overall I'm convinced most of the plays would've remained the same.
Here is what I'm going to do though. After interleague play, I will post for one week, using my final adjustment to the RL system. If it profits, I will continue, if it continues to struggle, I will then be done.
For example, the majority of my RL plays had a RL win % between 45 and 55%. With those RL %'s, the ML % is usually 55-65% or so. So in effect, my plays have utilized what you proposed without even meaning to. There may be a few different plays here and there, but overall I'm convinced most of the plays would've remained the same.
Here is what I'm going to do though. After interleague play, I will post for one week, using my final adjustment to the RL system. If it profits, I will continue, if it continues to struggle, I will then be done.
Good idea Bronc. We know everything is cyclical. With your data analysis you should be able to minimize the downturns in the cycle as you've done most of the season. Hell, even cashing one or two of those huge parlays is worth the risk if nothing else.
Thanks B. We'll be watching for your posts.
Thanks B. We'll be watching for your posts.
Cool Broncos:
I will be tailing you.
I think your win or out rule is fair.
Big sacrifice of time to do this especially with a new one around.
Then again, it will give you something to do when you are up all night.
@)
Seriously though, I really think the difference between those to two parameters is incredible. Unreal difference...one way is huge and the other one is death. Unreal variance that has to be taken into consideration.
We lose the small dog winners and big dog winners. All the in between stuff we cash.
If (big if) these numbers come only close to holding up it is a winner.
BOL
Catch
I will be tailing you.
I think your win or out rule is fair.
Big sacrifice of time to do this especially with a new one around.
Then again, it will give you something to do when you are up all night.
@)
Seriously though, I really think the difference between those to two parameters is incredible. Unreal difference...one way is huge and the other one is death. Unreal variance that has to be taken into consideration.
We lose the small dog winners and big dog winners. All the in between stuff we cash.
If (big if) these numbers come only close to holding up it is a winner.
BOL
Catch
You are absolutely right about that. I hit 4 or 5 parlays total, some very large, some for only $1500 or so. But even if you hit one every once in a while, sure is worth it. And if you think about, regardless of the plays I have, chances are there will be days when every favorite wins by 2 or more.
