Broncos NEW MLB Thread - 2009

[Broncos625]

So far, we are up 19.50 units on the year.

I was getting bad karma in the old thread and obviously, the system is collapsing. With that being said, it's time for a fresh start here. I'm going to be working on things all morning and will still post my plays at the same time.

I do not mind negative comments, if its going bad, you have every right to say so. With that being said, it is not cool to bask in someone else's misfortune. Saying things like "shitty day" or "shitty run" or whatever is absolutely fine and should be expected.

Posting of Plays:

Same rules apply for consistency.

M-F any early plays will be posted around 7am pacific.
M-F all other plays will be poster around 11am pacific.

Weekend plays will be posted between 7-8am pacific.

Hopefully we can change things around here.

To anyone just checking out this thread, I am not trying to run from the terrible run I've been on. I will honestly tell all, it has been A HORRIBLE few days. But with bad times comes change. Last time I instituted a change, we had a great run. Hopefully we can do it again.

Be back later.:toast:

 

[SSI]

dont worry about it, anyone making almost (+20.00 units) in the first 4 weeks, is doing very good....

stick with your Plan and do not waver, if you believe in it..

SSI

 

[SouthernMiss]

you have nuts enough to put your plays out here, you have my respect. You ever notice shit holes that bash never post plays??

 

[Broncos625]

dont worry about it, anyone making almost (+20.00 units) in the first 4 weeks, is doing very good....

stick with your Plan and do not waver, if you believe in it..

SSI

I am still using some basic principles from the original system as I do see something there. It's just that something is missing.

Has everyone noticed that suddently, during this bad run, the number of plays has doubled per day??? I find this to be very very odd. During the first three weeks or so I'd have 2 or 3 plays per day. Now, over the past week to week and a half, there have been 5,6,7 and even 8 plays per day. Once we hit the 50 unit mark, this began.

IMHO, it is very very tough to make money when you have your BR spread out over 6 or more plays per day.

 

[Green17]

I am still using some basic principles from the original system as I do see something there. It's just that something is missing.

Has everyone noticed that suddently, during this bad run, the number of plays has doubled per day??? I find this to be very very odd. During the first three weeks or so I'd have 2 or 3 plays per day. Now, over the past week to week and a half, there have been 5,6,7 and even 8 plays per day. Once we hit the 50 unit mark, this began.

IMHO, it is very very tough to make money when you have your BR spread out over 6 or more plays per day.

I hear you Bronc, and I agree. Unlike some, I don't like to be playing a half dozen or more plays per day and being so exposed.

Brush your pants off and get back in the ring. There are plenty of rounds left in this fight. No white flags from this corner.

GL2U

 

[Broncos625]

5/5 Plays:

St. Louis RL +160

BOL!!

 

[SelectiveAscent]

could you post the YTD record (in depth) here too? I imagine you will at the end of the day, just wondering...

 

[v3candyman]

Thanks 625

 

[BIGWave]

could you post the YTD record (in depth) here too? I imagine you will at the end of the day, just wondering...

ML Favs: 29-15 (+18.50)
ML Dogs: 13-20 (-1.40) Really struggling as of late.
RL Favs: 5-6 )-2.40)
Totals: 11-9 (+4.80)

Total: 58-50 (+19.50 units)

 

[Broncos625]

could you post the YTD record (in depth) here too? I imagine you will at the end of the day, just wondering...

I will do so after tonight's result. Be advised however, that I am going to track these plays separately as I have made significant changes. We should go back to having no more than 3 plays per day. :toast:

 

[SelectiveAscent]

New change in system? Sweeeeet. @)

 

[homerunhitter7]

Good luck with the new system Broncos. I'm riding out this bad streak with you and know better days will come.

 

[Broncos625]

Good luck with the new system Broncos. I'm riding out this bad streak with you and know better days will come.

Hopefully you've been smart with MM. I failed to heed my own advice and doubled up on LAD last night. Yes they won, but could've been disatrous had they lost.

We're not going to do much worse at least. (Hey gotta find some humor here right) lol

At least now we're not going to have a large chunk of our BR exposed each night. That's been the worst part of the whole thing.

 

[Broncos625]

New change in system? Sweeeeet. @)

Hope so. Good thing I've been on some of your plays.....kept my BR afloat for the past week or so. Great job SA.

 

[SelectiveAscent]

Yeah thanks man, your system has given my bankroll a boost over the first month...

 

[TheJackal]

Bronc-

Were you able to backcheck the changes you made? That sort of testing is not always possible but I see it as an integral step when I put my sheets together.

 

[Broncos625]

Yeah thanks man, your system has given my bankroll a boost over the first month...

Glad we can help each other out. :toast:

 

[TheJackal]

edit: wrong thread!

 

[Broncos625]

Bronc-

Were you able to backcheck the changes you made? That sort of testing is not always possible but I see it as an integral step when I put my sheets together.

I was not able to get a very accurate picture to be honest with you. I'm not going to tout on about how this thing was backtracked with amazing results, blah blah blah.

What I was able to find however, is where the greatest value seemed to lie so far this year. Seems that playing RL on medium favs (-130 or so up to -160ish produced nice results in terms of value). RL on large favs (-190 and up) has no value at all as you are still betting on a minus line. In fact ML big favs produces little value as well, but most already know that.

The big problem I've found is trying to figure out dog plays. That's the challenge. While I could just use Parquette Posse's suggestion and play a dog when there is "x" amount of value, I don't think it's good enough. I've set up three filters with the dogs along with using a number value on them. That's a lot of filters. But that's good because I really feel if you're playing a dog, it should be the right dog. The past week my old system was spitting out two dogs per day. That just doesn't seem right as its hard enough to find true value with one dog.

We'll see how things pan out. I'm willing to give this two weeks. :toast:

 

[TheJackal]

fair enough. Thanks for clarifying.