Broncos MLB Thread - 2009

[Broncos625]

4/15 Early Plays:

Cubs RL -1.5 +105
Detroit -140


BOL!!:toast:


Be back about 11am pacific with the rest.

 

[TraderMike]

I'm not going to go into it but I adjusted some numbers as the old system seemed to be picking too many dogs and more importantly too many losing dogs. Still a work in progress and if needed, I'll adjust again after a week. So far though, seems better. Both yesterday and today, there would've been 1 play each day under the old system and they both would've lost. So not only did we go 2-1 with the dogs, which is nice profit, but we saved ourselves two losses.

As stated in an earlier post, its just a matter of getting percentages and odds down to a winning combination.

I like the fact that you are not posting your adjustments. The last thing we need is for this system to work to well.

 

[cmoise1]

are the tigers still a play at -161?

 

[Broncos625]

are the tigers still a play at -161?

Technically, it's only a play up to -150 but its up to you. Obviously the change in juice doesn't affect the chance of winning, you'll just lose a bit more if they lose and some of the value is gone.

When I posted, it was at -140 at Pinny, so it is a system play.

 

[BIGWave]

are the tigers still a play at -161?

WOW!!!

That line moved fast.................hno:

 

[Broncos625]

WOW!!!

That line moved fast.................hno:

Hopefully its a good sign for Tiger backers.

 

[Jpatterson91]

yes bronc but the % moved to 62.6 ??? still a play ?

 

[austintx05]

where do yall see percentages? or does everyone here pay for this service?

 

[BIGWave]

where do yall see percentages? or does everyone here pay for this service?

Yes - those quoting the percentages DO pay for the service.

About the percentages dropping - I believe once the play is posted - it's an official play - not to be adjusted by percentage moves. A time has been chosen and at that time is when the plays are determined - that's it. Otherwise you spend all day watching changes...............a system is suppose to make it a bit easier and LESS time consuming I think................

 

[tommyjohn44]

Sure am glad I got it at -150 as betus (which moves in 5 pt increments) is all the way up to -170!!!!

 

[Broncos625]

yes bronc but the % moved to 62.6 ??? still a play ?

A play is only an official play at the line I post. If there are changes, it is the person's own decision as to play or not. At that percentage, it would not have been a play.

 

[Broncos625]

Yes - those quoting the percentages DO pay for the service.

About the percentages dropping - I believe once the play is posted - it's an official play - not to be adjusted by percentage moves. A time has been chosen and at that time is when the plays are determined - that's it. Otherwise you spend all day watching changes...............a system is suppose to make it a bit easier and LESS time consuming I think................

Thanks BW. That's exactly it.

 

[Broncos625]

4/15 Added Plays:

Atlanta -166
Atlanta RL +115 (1 unit)

BOL!!

 

[Broncos625]

Split the early games. This is a perfect example as to how playing a big fav RL has more value than playing ML. Would've lost a ton with this game had we played ML, but instead, just a normal loss.

YTD Records:

ML Favs: 11-4 (+16.47)
ML Dogs (old system): 3-6 (-4.89)
ML Dogs (new system): 2-1 (+6.87)
RL Favs: 1-2 (-2.60)
Totals: 1-0 (+3.00)

Total: 18-13 (+18.85 units)

Let's go Braves for a winning day.

 

[Broncos625]

YTD Records:

ML Favs: 11-5 (+11.49)
ML Dogs (old system): 3-6 (-4.89)
ML Dogs (new system): 2-1 (+6.87)
RL Favs: 1-3 (-3.60)
Totals: 1-0 (+3.00)

Total: 18-15 (+12.87 units)

Amazing what one loss with a higher juice does to your units. Just like that, under 13 units now. Not going to win every day, just hopefully more days than we lose. Be back in a couple of hours for early games. Looks like there will be a play on Cle v. NYY early and possibly Fl v. Atl.

 

[Broncos625]

4/16 Early Plays:

Cleveland +191



Biggest dog the system has picked to date. :toast:

 

[Broncos625]

4/16 Plays:

Cleveland +191
LAA -140
LAD -170

BOL!!

 

[Broncos625]

What a great way to start the day with a huge doggie barking! Hope some of you followed. Seemed most of the forum was on NYY RL in this one.

YTD Records:

ML Favs: 11-5 (+11.49)
ML Dogs (old system): 3-6 (-4.89)
ML Dogs (new system): 3-1 (+12.60) - Seems like I may have really found something here
RL Favs: 1-3 (-3.60)
Totals: 1-0 (+3.00)

Total: 19-15 (+18.60 units)

 

[Jpatterson91]

I was with ya...following blindly

 

[Broncos625]

I was with ya...following blindly

Now that's a leap of faith on such a big doggie! I know its only 3-1 so far, but that's a great start with the adjustments I made with dogs. 75% won't continue I'm sure, but as I've said, great start.