Broncos MLB Thread - 2009

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Go Blue!!
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Probably throwing $100 away, but I'm hoping for a turn around night.

For fun, I parlayed all the plays

$100/$5845

:laugh:
 

Go Blue!!
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I will join you for $50. Good luck, and thanks for all you do.


Only reason I'm doing it is because if by chance we did go 6-0 tonight, I'd be pissed I didn't take a stab at it. At this point though, I'd be extremely happy with 4-2 tonight.
 

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Broncos- I was in no saying you were not betting value plays. You should re-read my post. What I am saying is that you are not playing the best value plays, according to the Accuscore system/results. In your example you use the White Sox, with an expected value of 11.26. There is value in this play, clearly there is nice value. But the value is not equivalent to the standard you applied to the NBA and MLB totals which is 16.0.

I understand you look for value in Accuscore's plays, you are just not betting the plays that give you the greatest value.
 

Go Blue!!
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Broncos- I was in no saying you were not betting value plays. You should re-read my post. What I am saying is that you are not playing the best value plays, according to the Accuscore system/results. In your example you use the White Sox, with an expected value of 11.26. There is value in this play, clearly there is nice value. But the value is not equivalent to the standard you applied to the NBA and MLB totals which is 16.0.

I understand you look for value in Accuscore's plays, you are just not betting the plays that give you the greatest value.


I now see where you're coming from. Makes a lot of sense. Depending on how things go today I may have to utilize some of this. You are looking at it using the original 60% mark I used for NBA and what the MLB value would be in comparison, which makes great sense since that 60% made us some money in NBA. Makes perfect sense to compare the value with the 60% mark I use for even money plays. So according to this, a play would be a play at 16 or higher, which is the real value of the 60% plays for NBA. Very nice job! :toast:
 

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Again, I appreciate the understanding. We are all here to help each other and in no way was my post meant to do anything other than help us all out to make as much money as possible. If we can all pull together are ideas we can formulate some really good stuff using the Accuscore numbers. I have used a system for some time that matches up a couple trusted handicappers I pay for with accuscore and the results have been extraordinarily good over a 14 month run. Anyways, good luck to us all and lets help each other as much as possible
 

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I have been booking suckers like you for 27 years. There is NO "system" that consistently wins in ANY sport. That is why there will always be clowns like you, asking guys like me, "would you like fries with that, sir."

LOL! Coming from a guy who has all of 53 posts & joined in '08! What a BIG joke! I'll have you know, there are systems that work, but clowns like you don't like to call it systems. Come football season, I'll lay down money against you that my systems work. You said you're a bookie right? How bout you take my bets during football season. What's your max bet? My local takes $5k per play.

P.S. Bronco, I apologize for clogging your thread. I will not pay anymore attention to these assclowns that think they know everything. I am sorry and will not let it happen again.
 

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I hear ya Broncos! I got backdoored in the Pit and Braves game today. I lost the Twins and the under yesterday after the no hitter thru 6 innings. Last 2 days have been brutal that way. Our time for luck will come...I hope!
 

MCB

Rx. Junior
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that would be 2-4.... If you have a better "system" funnyman, post it.
 

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Broncos must have the patience of Job to put up with imbeciles who know nothing about variance and standard deviation. Did anyone happen to notice that he's up about 20 units after the first month of the season?
 

Tennis Handicapper
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Head's up Broncos!

It's a long long season, There's still :chest: blinking at the end of the road!

Looking forward to your picks today.

Hit 'em! <><>
 

Go Blue!!
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No need for the commentary, awful, awful run here.

ML Favs: 29-15 (+18.50)
ML Dogs: 13-20 (-1.40) Really struggling as of late.
RL Favs: 5-6 )-2.40)
Totals: 11-9 (+4.80)

Total: 58-50 (+19.50 units)
 

Go Blue!!
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Just ignore Funny, I've reported his posts to the mods. He's obviously been stalking this thread all year just waiting to pounce on a bad run.
 

Go Blue!!
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While I do appreciate you guys backing me and I hate the bashers, bottom line is WE HAVE HIT A TERRIBLE RUN. I can't and won't try to hide from that.

I will be re-evaluating this morning, doing some back testing and tracking and seeing what, if any, changes should be made.

Be back later.
 

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Just learn expected value. It is really easy. There are no magic potions here, just math. Anything with an EV over 16.0 should be a play, under that is not. Apply this and we will all win at the end of the season. Very simple
 

Go Blue!!
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Just learn expected value. It is really easy. There are no magic potions here, just math. Anything with an EV over 16.0 should be a play, under that is not. Apply this and we will all win at the end of the season. Very simple

See, I don't agree with the entire theory of yours. I still think other qualifiers need to be in play. That's what I'm going to be playing around with when I get to work. lol

You have definately given me a different direction to go though and for that I say thank you very much.
 

Go Blue!!
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I am going to try and leave the bad karma behind here. I am starting a new thread with the changes to the system. I won't start the tracking over obviously.


LOOK FOR MY NEW THREAD FOR ALL PLAYS.....:toast:
 

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