by the way irish
i was reading some of your and teddy's back and forth regarding the books and all of that
in general, i'd say you are 1,000% right that the books dont move lines based on someones plays
and the only reason i said that was because twice the past two years, i stated what i felt a line should be at for a particular game, and it was like so and so -120, and i'll say "this line should be at -180....and it's literally within a minute that the line wont just move, but move to the line i stated or a couple of points from it
that could just be coincidence, but the money coming in from people tailing my college picks takes time for them to read my post, put their bets in etc, takes longer than 1 minute to move that large of an amount and to the amount that i openly stated what i felt the line should be
and i would never ever suggest that i, or anyone, could move any major sport based on their picks...
just in a small market sport like college bases, i'm literally like 1 of 4 people posting plays on this sport, i'd say thats a direct respresentation of people who are betting it
as the games though.... have moved their way to ESPN primetime 7pm, my plays and "following" have probably become a pimple on a mosqitoes balls of the amount who are now betting the sport, so lines may move against me, because how of the money is coming in....standard stuff and usually the case 99.9% of the time as i agreed with you
overall, i dont have enough evidence to backup such a controversial statement yet, but i'm standing by it until proven otherwise
i was reading some of your and teddy's back and forth regarding the books and all of that
in general, i'd say you are 1,000% right that the books dont move lines based on someones plays
and the only reason i said that was because twice the past two years, i stated what i felt a line should be at for a particular game, and it was like so and so -120, and i'll say "this line should be at -180....and it's literally within a minute that the line wont just move, but move to the line i stated or a couple of points from it
that could just be coincidence, but the money coming in from people tailing my college picks takes time for them to read my post, put their bets in etc, takes longer than 1 minute to move that large of an amount and to the amount that i openly stated what i felt the line should be
and i would never ever suggest that i, or anyone, could move any major sport based on their picks...
just in a small market sport like college bases, i'm literally like 1 of 4 people posting plays on this sport, i'd say thats a direct respresentation of people who are betting it
as the games though.... have moved their way to ESPN primetime 7pm, my plays and "following" have probably become a pimple on a mosqitoes balls of the amount who are now betting the sport, so lines may move against me, because how of the money is coming in....standard stuff and usually the case 99.9% of the time as i agreed with you
overall, i dont have enough evidence to backup such a controversial statement yet, but i'm standing by it until proven otherwise
ope:
