Bowls, Playoffs, etc.

[ofred]

Having a hard time on the Oklahoma-Bama game, so likely will be pretty small for me.

Somewhere between small and medium plays:

Memphis +4 (-115) Brendon Lewis is a true gamer and he just seems to will his team to win or at least compete closely. Even with a gimpy ankle, he kept his team close in their last 3 losses....all to good opponents. And then there are wins vs. USF and Arkansas. His ankle is likely healed or close to it. Memphis plays without their head coach and a couple of other coaches, but I've noticed that in the past few years, many teams do well anyways. NC State loses their top RB to the portal, and there is talk of CJ Bailey leaving after the bowl game. NC State's head coach, Dave Doeren, has a miserable record aas a bowl coach. I also get the sense that NC State boosters would like him to go- maybe players too? And I doubt NC State sees this bowl in Tampa as much to feel good about. Their D is pretty bad too. Memphis gets to erase some of their disappointment by beating a P4 team.

WMU -3 (-120) WMU has the formula for a winning bowl team- good in the trenches and a great run game. Both the MAC and Conference uSA are pretty bad conferences, but the top few of the MAC seem better than teams like Kennewick State. Kennewick State won so many close games that I wonder if they are overdue for a stinker. WMU has the better defense and I don't think it's close. WMU's head coach, Lance Taylor, was not poached and signed an extension so that might motivate his boys a bit. Hoping their young QB Broc Lowry uses the extra practice to refine his passes. He's young and talented and a great running QB.

 

[ofred]

Small:

Alabama +1 This line slightly moved in Oklahoma's favor probably because Mateer has been seen without tape on his thumb. Probably, but that's speculation. I just can't put anything on an offense that bad. Mateer's thumb might be improved, but his decision making and poor play might not improve. Lots made of Alabama not running the ball, but the Sooners can't run the ball either. Same with the OL. Bama's getting a lot of criticism, but Oklahoma's OL might be worse. I also don't want to make too much of Alabama's game vs. a very good Georgia team. Ty Simpson has been off for a few games, but I still think he and his Wrs make some plays that are the difference here. Oklahoma at home, with an excellent defense, but I don't think that they'll get 3 TOs again.

 

[ofred]

Large:

Ole Miss -17 Been ruminating on this game a while. Which team comes together more for this CFP game considering the coaching situations? Tulane's coach Jon Sumrall did it the honorable way, unlike Kiffin. Yet he has been back and forth to Gainesville, and solidifying recruits for the Gators. From what I've read, he's kind of burned out. His players also have to think about their future. i think Ole Miss will be fine and play for themselves and each other better. The Kiffin thing got so much coverage. As in "our coach deserted us, and yet we have our brothers here to play for." Or something like that. The players will unite around Pete Golding and the staff- which is intact.

Also, Ole Miss is at home. Tough place to play for visitors. Watching Memphis play NC State. and UW beat up Boise, and I'll return to what I mentioned in the Oregon write-up- the disparity between P4 and G5 teams is becoming vast and should be amplified in a playoff game on the road. NC State is a middling ACC team, the worst of the P4 conferences. ESPN recently did a written piece on NFL draft worthy players. Ole Miss has 10, Tulane 2, and the only Tulane player in the upper rounds was a guard. Plus Ole Miss has a slew of younger guys who won't be drafted yet.

Have to mention Suntarine Perkins, a LB for Ole Miss. He's been an excellent spy this year on mobile QBs like Jake Retzlaff. The other guy to mention is their QB Chambliss. He's not just an amazing story. Avoids turnovers, makes good decisions, and a dual threat better than Retzlaff- especially against the Tulane defense vs. an SEC defense. In their last game, Ole Miss was pulling their starters end of 3rd quarter.

Tulane has one of their WRs as doubtful. Their WR corp isn't great at separation. Other than Retzlaff they don't run the ball all that well. Retzlaff has only been sacked 8 times this season so he is wily. Tulane will need TOs to stay in the game. If Ole Miss is focused, and they should be as this is a freaking playoff game, they should eventually pull away.

 

[ofred]

Small, but on the high side:

Miami +3.5 Two things worry me about Miami. Kyle Field and Mario Cristobal's game management. Miami did play in the weaker conference, but did beat ND, smashed USF and Florida. Still, I think they have a decent chance of a victory here. Carson Beck only had one poor game this season, and he was much better at not turning the ball over. And some of his ints. were not his fault. Marcel Reed had plenty of turnover worthy plays and doesn't play nearly as effective under pressure as Beck does. Reed has the legs to get out of trouble, though. I doubt his ankle injury will be a factor. Beck has a really good OL and gets the ball out quickly and with better accuracy.

I think Miami will have the advantage defensively. A&M gives up a lot of yardage after contact, and watching them in pass coverage, they don't look as good as Miami's DBs. A&M also beat ND and played a SEC schedule, although no Georgia, Bama or Ole Miss. I might be a bit influenced by A&M's Texas game, and their SC 1st half, but I wonder if they peaked too soon.

 

[ofred]

Live bet Oklahoma -9.5 small.

 

[the_gas_face]

Small:

Alabama +1 This line slightly moved in Oklahoma's favor probably because Mateer has been seen without tape on his thumb. Probably, but that's speculation. I just can't put anything on an offense that bad. Mateer's thumb might be improved, but his decision making and poor play might not improve. Lots made of Alabama not running the ball, but the Sooners can't run the ball either. Same with the OL. Bama's getting a lot of criticism, but Oklahoma's OL might be worse. I also don't want to make too much of Alabama's game vs. a very good Georgia team. Ty Simpson has been off for a few games, but I still think he and his Wrs make some plays that are the difference here. Oklahoma at home, with an excellent defense, but I don't think that they'll get 3 TOs again.

Nice call on Bama

 

[secondcity]

Any fcs thoughts for today

 

[ofred]

Any fcs thoughts for today

0-2 on my FCS plays. Have both games as unders on a teaser.

Practically cancelled out my Alabama bet with that live play. What a change in momentum.

 

[ofred]

Ducks back door loss ruined a great playoff weekend...sort of. 3-0 on small plays, 1-1 on large. Still can't imagine JMU scoring that much 2nd half even against Oregon backups.

From medium to small:

Louisville -7 (-130) Disappointing season for Louisville, but they did crush KY to end the season, and kept their coaching staff intact. They lose a couple of good DL opting out, but Toledo also has some key defensive players opting out...amd they don't have the depth of UL. Lousiville hopefully will have one of their top RBs available, but once again, they have depth there too. Moss will play. Toledo going with a freshman at QB, and a much reduced coaching staff. Toledo is a funny team. They can upset or keep a game close with P4 teams, and then get beat up by crappy teams. But to rehash a past argument, the disparity between P4 teams and G5 teams is only getting wider. And the MAC teams are no exception. Lots of Louisville players from Florida, so there should be motivation. Louisville capable of blowing them out, but they are also capable of playing down to the level of their opponent. The Cal game was a good example. Because this is an isolated game, like a new season, I think they'll play well.

S. Miss +1 Charlie Huff left for another coaching job, but most of the staff is there. Blake Anderson is a very good offensive coach and has much experience with bowl prep. So does Ty Helton of WKU. WKU has a freshman QB who did okay, but is a pretty raw passer. QB Braylon Braxton will finally be healthy for S. Miss(so his running will be more of a factor), and they have pretty good speed on both sides of the ball. S. Miss ended the year poorly, but like the UL gamer, this is a chance in a one off game to redeem yourself. I also think the Sun Belt is a better conference than Conf. USA. Hopefully Kennesaw State's bowl debacle repeats itself here.

Ohio +7 Ohio's coach joins the "stupid coach club" with Sherrone Moore. Don't these idiots realize what they risk? He's fired, but Ohio is pretty much opt out free and with the other coaches there too prep. . UNLV also looks pretty intact. Part of this play is that UNLV has a dreadful defense, and that Ohio almost always keeps their games close- wins and losses. Boise and Utah State might be an example of the Mt. West's decline. And the MAC is nothing special, although WMU looked pretty damn good. Ohio nearly knocked off Rutgers, beat WVU, and played Ohio State close for 2 and half quarters. 7 just seems generous.

 

[Greenbacks]

Ducks back door loss ruined a great playoff weekend...sort of. 3-0 on small plays, 1-1 on large. Still can't imagine JMU scoring that much 2nd half even against Oregon backups.

From medium to small:

Louisville -7 (-130) Disappointing season for Louisville, but they did crush KY to end the season, and kept their coaching staff intact. They lose a couple of good DL opting out, but Toledo also has some key defensive players opting out...amd they don't have the depth of UL. Lousiville hopefully will have one of their top RBs available, but once again, they have depth there too. Moss will play. Toledo going with a freshman at QB, and a much reduced coaching staff. Toledo is a funny team. They can upset or keep a game close with P4 teams, and then get beat up by crappy teams. But to rehash a past argument, the disparity between P4 teams and G5 teams is only getting wider. And the MAC teams are no exception. Lots of Louisville players from Florida, so there should be motivation. Louisville capable of blowing them out, but they are also capable of playing down to the level of their opponent. The Cal game was a good example. Because this is an isolated game, like a new season, I think they'll play well.

S. Miss +1 Charlie Huff left for another coaching job, but most of the staff is there. Blake Anderson is a very good offensive coach and has much experience with bowl prep. So does Ty Helton of WKU. WKU has a freshman QB who did okay, but is a pretty raw passer. QB Braylon Braxton will finally be healthy for S. Miss(so his running will be more of a factor), and they have pretty good speed on both sides of the ball. S. Miss ended the year poorly, but like the UL gamer, this is a chance in a one off game to redeem yourself. I also think the Sun Belt is a better conference than Conf. USA. Hopefully Kennesaw State's bowl debacle repeats itself here.

Ohio +7 Ohio's coach joins the "stupid coach club" with Sherrone Moore. Don't these idiots realize what they risk? He's fired, but Ohio is pretty much opt out free and with the other coaches there too prep. . UNLV also looks pretty intact. Part of this play is that UNLV has a dreadful defense, and that Ohio almost always keeps their games close- wins and losses. Boise and Utah State might be an example of the Mt. West's decline. And the MAC is nothing special, although WMU looked pretty damn good. Ohio nearly knocked off Rutgers, beat WVU, and played Ohio State close for 2 and half quarters. 7 just seems generous.

Nice writes up fred

 

[ofred]

Nice writes up fred

Thanks Greenbacks. Enjoy your posts also.