6* SD State -6.5 Rocky Long has been an excellent bowl prep coach. He doesn't slough it off while recruiting. SD State also has the kind of run defense that can limit Army's strength. They have adapted well to playing other similar offenses like New Mexico and Air Force. Army's passing game is such that 3rd and medium or long will usually be runs, by necessity. I also think SD State's offense will utilize the pass more than usual to attack Army's weakness, pass defense in the secondary. Army beat Navy, and that may have been more their bowl game than this one.
4* Fresno +2 Fresno will be highly motivated here. They have a surprisingly good defense that plays with a lot of energy, and is tough in the red zone. Houston's offense is nothing special and struggles to score. Fresno QB Marcus McMaryion has only been sacked 7 times, and is very adept at moving in the pocket, and running when necessary. I just think Fresno will want this more, while Houston is used to a much better bowl game than this.
3* Texas Tech +3 Texas Tech has played a tougher schedule than USF so of course USF looks better defensively statistically. But Tech improved this year in both defense and in their running game. It didn't show up in their record, but they had to play Oklahoma, OSU, TCU, K State, Texas, Iowa State, et al, while USF played only UCF and Houston as quality teams. USF has only sold about 1,000 tickets for this bowl game and is returning to Birmingham again this year. Same city, same dull tour, and playing a 6-6 team. Can't see much motivation for USF. Charlie Strong, the USF coach, has benefitted from a senior laden class, but his coaching, defensive and game prep prowess is all under question if his stint at Texas is any proof. TT QB Nic Shimonek underrated.
1* Toledo -6.5 Toledo has such great run-pass balance, I don't see Appalachian State being able to handle it. Toledo should be able to run right at App. State. Toledo also wants revenge for last year's bowl loss to AS. Appalachian State just seems less than their usual selves this year, especially defensively. Winning their last 3 vs. terrible competition doesn't mask a mediocre season.
4* Fresno +2 Fresno will be highly motivated here. They have a surprisingly good defense that plays with a lot of energy, and is tough in the red zone. Houston's offense is nothing special and struggles to score. Fresno QB Marcus McMaryion has only been sacked 7 times, and is very adept at moving in the pocket, and running when necessary. I just think Fresno will want this more, while Houston is used to a much better bowl game than this.
3* Texas Tech +3 Texas Tech has played a tougher schedule than USF so of course USF looks better defensively statistically. But Tech improved this year in both defense and in their running game. It didn't show up in their record, but they had to play Oklahoma, OSU, TCU, K State, Texas, Iowa State, et al, while USF played only UCF and Houston as quality teams. USF has only sold about 1,000 tickets for this bowl game and is returning to Birmingham again this year. Same city, same dull tour, and playing a 6-6 team. Can't see much motivation for USF. Charlie Strong, the USF coach, has benefitted from a senior laden class, but his coaching, defensive and game prep prowess is all under question if his stint at Texas is any proof. TT QB Nic Shimonek underrated.
1* Toledo -6.5 Toledo has such great run-pass balance, I don't see Appalachian State being able to handle it. Toledo should be able to run right at App. State. Toledo also wants revenge for last year's bowl loss to AS. Appalachian State just seems less than their usual selves this year, especially defensively. Winning their last 3 vs. terrible competition doesn't mask a mediocre season.
