1* Nevada +1.5 Nevada lost two starters who transferred, including their top WR. However, I still think they win here. Nevada has a nice running game, a mobile QB in Ty Gangi, but most of all, they have the much better run defense. Arkansas State, despite many cream puff opponents in the Sun Belt, have given up 200+ yards per game on the ground and 5.0 ypc. Nevada has given up 3.5 ypc and 130 yards per game. Also, the Red Wolves haven't won a statement game vs. a good opponent in the last 2 seasons. Nevada did blow their final game to UNLV, but had a nice 4 game winning streak before that. The 2nd half of their season was pretty impressive, beating Air Force and SDSU, and losing to Boise by 4. They played well on both sides of the ball. Finally, I'm not that impressed with ASU QB Justice Hansen. He makes a lot of short throws and is a decent system QB, but vs. better competition, he can't get his team in the end zone too well, turns the ball over, and pads his stats vs. the lower tier teams of the Sun Belt.
3* Iowa State +3 It's a little hard betting on a freshman QB going against a veteran like Gardner Minshew. Still, there's plenty to like here about the Cyclones. For one thing, Wazzu and the PAC 12 has been pretty bad in recent bowl games. Mike Leach has a poor record in bowl games, probably because he thrives offensively in conferences that play weak defense. That describes the PAC 12, exempting Cal, UW and Utah. I saw enough Wazzu football to know: They could have beaten USC(close game, but USC was pretty bad this year), should have lost to Cal at home but the play-calling and pulling of Garber was insanely stupid by their OC, got a big play that should have been a short pass completion to beat Utah(game could have gone either way), and got beat pretty bad by UW. They started the year beating EWU, San Jose and a young Wyoming team. That being said, WSU deserved to be 10-2 or 9-3. They had a good season and Minshew was the key.
And yet the PAC 12 is a weak conference defensively. And Wazzu is 64th in defensive efficiency, which takes into account schedule strength, garbage time scores, etc. Iowa State is 31st in DE and has seen every kind of passing offense known to college football, although Leach's Air Raid attack is a bit different. Iowa State will have a definite advantage in their OL to the Coug defensive front.
They have wins vs. WVU, Okie State, and ended the year going 7-1, with only a loss at Texas. There are some intangibles too. David Montgomery, the ISU back, who is going to go high in the draft, is playing and he leads vocally and by example. ISU is pretty healthy, and coach Matt Campbell again won "Coach of the Year" in the Big 12, and signed an extension rather than jump to a bigger program. Iowa St. seems psyched about this game, while Wazzu fans are not. This might feel like a home game for ISU as their fans are coming, and WSU fans are mostly not. The Coug fans are disappointed about losing the Apple Cup, not playing in the CG, their ranking, and their bowl placement- and I wonder how much that'll carry over to the players. The Cougs looked awful their last 2 bowl games. A 3rd..I think so.
And yet the PAC 12 is a weak conference defensively. And Wazzu is 64th in defensive efficiency, which takes into account schedule strength, garbage time scores, etc. Iowa State is 31st in DE and has seen every kind of passing offense known to college football, although Leach's Air Raid attack is a bit different. Iowa State will have a definite advantage in their OL to the Coug defensive front.
They have wins vs. WVU, Okie State, and ended the year going 7-1, with only a loss at Texas. There are some intangibles too. David Montgomery, the ISU back, who is going to go high in the draft, is playing and he leads vocally and by example. ISU is pretty healthy, and coach Matt Campbell again won "Coach of the Year" in the Big 12, and signed an extension rather than jump to a bigger program. Iowa St. seems psyched about this game, while Wazzu fans are not. This might feel like a home game for ISU as their fans are coming, and WSU fans are mostly not. The Coug fans are disappointed about losing the Apple Cup, not playing in the CG, their ranking, and their bowl placement- and I wonder how much that'll carry over to the players. The Cougs looked awful their last 2 bowl games. A 3rd..I think so.
1* Florida +7 (-125) I might be nuts thinking Feleipe Franks will be able to pass against that Michigan secondary. But I'm a huge fan of Coach Dan Mullen, who did an amazing job at MSU, and turned around a miserable Florida team in just one year. He's known as a great QB coach, and maybe I'm hoping he can get Franks to play competently in the Peach Bowl. I also think Florida is a physical enough team that can hang with Michigan. UM will be missing 3 key players, and with all of the rumors of Harbaugh getting an offer he can't refuse from the Jets or another NFL team, distractions? I really like Harbaugh as a coach and the criticism from Michigan fans for not beating OSU seems undeserved. He turned the program around, and beating Ohio State isn't easy for any team. UM did beat up Wisconsin and Penn State. Still, I'm taking Florida for going through the SEC schedule, beating LSU, and having a pretty good running game and defense that'll keep this game competitive. 1* on Mullen and a Florida team that FINALLY plays disciplined football.
Thanks Indy and everyone else. Now the bowl games get interesting.
1* South Carolina -5.5 Tough call here. It comes down, somewhat, to a mid-SEC team vs. a mid-ACC team. The narrative around SC is that they are decimated by injuries on their defense. But Virginia has lost 6-7 guys on their defense too, 2 who were starters, and a few who were rotated in. I also think SC is more able to replace a missing defender the UV is. Muschamp must want to win as he is burning the redshirt of freshman LB, Ernest Jones so he can play in the bowl even though he has played in 4 games. (With the approval of Jones and his family)
Virginia's offense depends too much on QB Bryce Perkins. He is very elusive, but he often has to improvise because his OL is pretty bad. Perkins has been sacked 30 times, and hurried a whole lot more. If SC can spy a bit on Perkins, they can limit his effectiveness. UV also has most of their running yards vs. their worst competition. Otherwise they don't run the ball all that well. UV's defensive strength is their secondary, but really, they haven't faced that many good passing QBs this season. Jake Bentley may be the one of the best they've faced this season, and Bentley seems to rise to the occasion in bigger games. I think South Carolina runs the ball well here vs. a mediocre UV defensive front. UV was lucky to beat Miami, and otherwise have only one statement win vs. Duke. UV lost their last 3 out of 4, with only a win vs. Liberty. Game is in Charlotte, a recruiting area for both teams, and so both teams/ coaches will be motivated to win.
1* South Carolina -5.5 Tough call here. It comes down, somewhat, to a mid-SEC team vs. a mid-ACC team. The narrative around SC is that they are decimated by injuries on their defense. But Virginia has lost 6-7 guys on their defense too, 2 who were starters, and a few who were rotated in. I also think SC is more able to replace a missing defender the UV is. Muschamp must want to win as he is burning the redshirt of freshman LB, Ernest Jones so he can play in the bowl even though he has played in 4 games. (With the approval of Jones and his family)
Virginia's offense depends too much on QB Bryce Perkins. He is very elusive, but he often has to improvise because his OL is pretty bad. Perkins has been sacked 30 times, and hurried a whole lot more. If SC can spy a bit on Perkins, they can limit his effectiveness. UV also has most of their running yards vs. their worst competition. Otherwise they don't run the ball all that well. UV's defensive strength is their secondary, but really, they haven't faced that many good passing QBs this season. Jake Bentley may be the one of the best they've faced this season, and Bentley seems to rise to the occasion in bigger games. I think South Carolina runs the ball well here vs. a mediocre UV defensive front. UV was lucky to beat Miami, and otherwise have only one statement win vs. Duke. UV lost their last 3 out of 4, with only a win vs. Liberty. Game is in Charlotte, a recruiting area for both teams, and so both teams/ coaches will be motivated to win.
Before betting these two very important game, I thought of every reason I could to take the underdogs, each getting about 2 TDs. But I just couldn't come up with enough reasons to do it. So..with Alabama, I will gladly join the square side.
3* Alabama -14 The Alabama offense is one for the ages, and Oklahoma will struggle to keep it under 50. I don't think they will. Oklahoma has faced some good offenses- WVU, Okie St, maybe Texas???- but nothing close to this one. I can see Oklahoma scoring 21-28 and still losing by 30. And even with Tua's ankle at 85%, Bama can do so much offensively. Their running game coupled with their OL will also open up the passing game and hopefully keep Tua from running or scrambling as much. And though the Alabama D is down a notch this year, it is still loaded with talent, and easily the best the Sooners have seen this year. Bama's D problems have not been a lack of speed or tackling, more like missed assignments by LBs or in the secondary- stuff that can be corrected with 4 weeks off. I think Alabama will be able to limit Kyler Murray better than any other Oklahoma opponent this year. That being said, he'll have his moments. This game could be 14-7, 28-14, 38-17, 52- 24…with Bama scoring twice for every one score from Oklahoma.
2* Clemson -13 Notre Dame is the trendy underdog pick, with 70% of the bets going on them. And yet the line has moved the other way. Hmm. Possible public dog that gets hammered. It's happened many times over the years in big college football games. Really like the Clemson running game. They have 3-4 guys that can break off a big one, while ND has Dexter Williams and an OL that will struggle with the DL of Clemson. Dexter is a good RB for sure, but the Clemson run defense is one of the best in the nation, and will limit him. Clemson might also have one of the best coaching staffs in preparing for these big games with extra time off. This Clemson team has that professional feel to it. A team that has had lapses of mediocrity during their season, but that plays well when more is on the line.
I just don't know if Notre Dame will have a case of the nerves in a game like this where they haven't been before. Ian Book has had a very good year, but he is more of a pocket passer, and will feel pressure unlike any he's faced this year. Notre Dame's best chance is that he has a sensational game and hits some long passes keeping the Clemson D honest and not teeing off on the pocket. And that Trevor Lawrence makes some freshman mistakes. ND has had a number of close games this season, and yet played a tougher schedule than Clemson, but my eye test thinks they are not in Clemson's league. Travis Etienne might just be the best back in the nation, except he shares the ball with other talented backs, and an offense that passes a reasonable amount. With Clemson having the slight edge in many areas, I think they dominate the ND OL enough to pull away 2nd half.
3* Alabama -14 The Alabama offense is one for the ages, and Oklahoma will struggle to keep it under 50. I don't think they will. Oklahoma has faced some good offenses- WVU, Okie St, maybe Texas???- but nothing close to this one. I can see Oklahoma scoring 21-28 and still losing by 30. And even with Tua's ankle at 85%, Bama can do so much offensively. Their running game coupled with their OL will also open up the passing game and hopefully keep Tua from running or scrambling as much. And though the Alabama D is down a notch this year, it is still loaded with talent, and easily the best the Sooners have seen this year. Bama's D problems have not been a lack of speed or tackling, more like missed assignments by LBs or in the secondary- stuff that can be corrected with 4 weeks off. I think Alabama will be able to limit Kyler Murray better than any other Oklahoma opponent this year. That being said, he'll have his moments. This game could be 14-7, 28-14, 38-17, 52- 24…with Bama scoring twice for every one score from Oklahoma.
2* Clemson -13 Notre Dame is the trendy underdog pick, with 70% of the bets going on them. And yet the line has moved the other way. Hmm. Possible public dog that gets hammered. It's happened many times over the years in big college football games. Really like the Clemson running game. They have 3-4 guys that can break off a big one, while ND has Dexter Williams and an OL that will struggle with the DL of Clemson. Dexter is a good RB for sure, but the Clemson run defense is one of the best in the nation, and will limit him. Clemson might also have one of the best coaching staffs in preparing for these big games with extra time off. This Clemson team has that professional feel to it. A team that has had lapses of mediocrity during their season, but that plays well when more is on the line.
I just don't know if Notre Dame will have a case of the nerves in a game like this where they haven't been before. Ian Book has had a very good year, but he is more of a pocket passer, and will feel pressure unlike any he's faced this year. Notre Dame's best chance is that he has a sensational game and hits some long passes keeping the Clemson D honest and not teeing off on the pocket. And that Trevor Lawrence makes some freshman mistakes. ND has had a number of close games this season, and yet played a tougher schedule than Clemson, but my eye test thinks they are not in Clemson's league. Travis Etienne might just be the best back in the nation, except he shares the ball with other talented backs, and an offense that passes a reasonable amount. With Clemson having the slight edge in many areas, I think they dominate the ND OL enough to pull away 2nd half.
The average possessions per college football team per game is about 12. I can easily see Bama scoring on 9 out of 12 possessions…maybe 55-65 points. The over could be the play if Oklahoma scores in the 28+ range.
Duke + points! This wipes out my crappy Ga. Tech play. Got sucked in by the "coach's last game" scenario. GT is a one dimensional offense and a lousy defense. A good team would have dropped 50 on them.
2* North Dakota St. -14 Might tease this one with Alabama, or just increase the * on both. I have a sense we are seeing two special teams that might just dominate in their last game(s). ND State is losing their HC to Kansas State, but is coaching them through the finals. His players and the fans have been gracious and grateful for his time there, and unlike Georgia Tech's send-off, I think the Bisons dominate here partly for their coach. If this game was played during the season, EWU would have a chance, but ND St. plays at another level in the FCS playoffs. 35 on a Colgate D that was #1 in the FCS, 23 point win vs. what I think was the likeliest upset team, SD State. They have playmakers all over the place, and QB Eason Stick, besides being an NFL prospect, is the key one. I like the EWU QB, Barriere, but he is not in Stick's league, and will struggle here at times. ND State's even excellent on special teams. EWU has a few really special players, but ND State is loaded over the whole roster.
Just as I feared, Charlie Brewer keeping his team in the game. Still…I don't see Baylor's D slowing down the Vandy offense. Looks like a sure OVER.
5* UW/ Ohio State- over 57.5 You've seen these type of games before. Two very good teams, and one has a strong D(UW) that is supposed to limit the great offense(OSU). But it doesn't usually happen that way. I see a shootout here, probably in the 70s or so. The UW defense is pretty good, but believe me, they haven't faced anything like this Buckeyes' offense. They stopped Wazzu in the snow, but the Cougs are much more one dimensional and with a lot less in playmakers than OSU. In fact, Wazzu is more of a system offense that is well-tuned. Ohio State destroyed the Michigan D, a much better and deeper D than the Huskies have.
On the other hand, UW has quite a few playmakers too. They have two RBs that can break off big gains, and a passing game that is not spectacular, but can give the OSU secondary plenty of trouble. Then you have HC Chris Petersen, who is known for for creativity in big games like this. He will have his offense playing "up" here, knowing they'll have to keep up with OSU. Lots of drama here, being Urban Meyer's last game, Ohio State trying to prove they belong in the NC playoff. Also, so many playmakers on offense, with a great QB in Haskins(he'll rise to the occasion), and a Husky offense that will score 30+ on a very pedestrian OSU defense. Offense wins in these big games in my opinion.
5* UW/ Ohio State- over 57.5 You've seen these type of games before. Two very good teams, and one has a strong D(UW) that is supposed to limit the great offense(OSU). But it doesn't usually happen that way. I see a shootout here, probably in the 70s or so. The UW defense is pretty good, but believe me, they haven't faced anything like this Buckeyes' offense. They stopped Wazzu in the snow, but the Cougs are much more one dimensional and with a lot less in playmakers than OSU. In fact, Wazzu is more of a system offense that is well-tuned. Ohio State destroyed the Michigan D, a much better and deeper D than the Huskies have.
On the other hand, UW has quite a few playmakers too. They have two RBs that can break off big gains, and a passing game that is not spectacular, but can give the OSU secondary plenty of trouble. Then you have HC Chris Petersen, who is known for for creativity in big games like this. He will have his offense playing "up" here, knowing they'll have to keep up with OSU. Lots of drama here, being Urban Meyer's last game, Ohio State trying to prove they belong in the NC playoff. Also, so many playmakers on offense, with a great QB in Haskins(he'll rise to the occasion), and a Husky offense that will score 30+ on a very pedestrian OSU defense. Offense wins in these big games in my opinion.
3* Oregon/ MSU- under 48 MSU hasn't been in a game at this number for about 8-9 games to end the season. And this Duck offense is not the typical one. Their OL is decent but not their usual excellent one. The MSU OL is a train-wreck. Lewerke might play, but he'll be rusty and likely be under pressure much of the game. I also expect the MSU defense to almost completely stop the Duck running game. It is also not up to its usual excellence. Tony Brook-James, their speedster back is out. Justin Herbert is nuts for staying another year (didn't he get the Bryce Love memo?), but he'll keep the Duck offense respectable. The other issue with Oregon's offense is that they only have one dependable WR, Dillon Mitchell. Herbert goes his way too much. On the other hand, I don't trust MSU to score much. Dantonio and his OC have failed to adapt to what's working in college football's offenses, and I wholly expect they'll run the ball 75% of the time. The Ducks front 7 is good enough to keep the big plays to a minimum considering the poor run blocking up front.
3* Texas A&M -7 A&M played a filthy schedule, and almost for that reason alone, I can take them here. Clemson and Alabama, almost upsetting Clemson and playing Bama respectably although not really in the game by the 3rd quarter. @Auburn(lost late in the 4th), beating LSU in OT, scoring 31 in regulation and 74 total against a very good D. Kentucky, Miss. State- two of the best Ds in the country. Also South Carolina and Ole Miss. It's a miracle they ended up 8-4. So much of their stats have to be filtered through that. NC State went 9-3, but with an easier schedule. NC State will be without their best WR and best defensive player, and I think these NFLers who sit out the bowl game send a message to the whole team that THIS is not an important game, this is a minor bowl game.
NC State will also be without two very good coaches, who have moved on to different programs. OC Drinkwitz and OL coach, Dwayne Ledford, are two huge reasons for the Wolfpack's offensive success. I think these losses also will drain the positive emotions you need to win a bowl game vs. a quality opponent. Now, Ryan Finley is the man. An NFL prospect for sure. But Finley has a few minor weaknesses too. And the NC State running game has not been consistently strong this year, led by Reggie Giilaspy, a physical back, but not the speedy RBs that NC St. has had in previous years. I just think A&M has the overall better playmakers, and lots of young, talented guys that will step up here in what has been a grueling season. They are battle-tested by their schedule, and could win this by a blowout if they keep Finley from getting too much time.
NC State will also be without two very good coaches, who have moved on to different programs. OC Drinkwitz and OL coach, Dwayne Ledford, are two huge reasons for the Wolfpack's offensive success. I think these losses also will drain the positive emotions you need to win a bowl game vs. a quality opponent. Now, Ryan Finley is the man. An NFL prospect for sure. But Finley has a few minor weaknesses too. And the NC State running game has not been consistently strong this year, led by Reggie Giilaspy, a physical back, but not the speedy RBs that NC St. has had in previous years. I just think A&M has the overall better playmakers, and lots of young, talented guys that will step up here in what has been a grueling season. They are battle-tested by their schedule, and could win this by a blowout if they keep Finley from getting too much time.
Bowls: 16-7, +35.75 units….Syracuse a nice win.
2* Northwestern +7.5 Yes I know Kyle Whittingham is 11-1 in bowl games, and that Tyler Huntley might start. I have been on Utah in previous bowls because Whittingham is great bowl coach. Yet Northwestern might be just the right team to upset them or keep within the number. Have you seen Minnesota and Wisconsin play in their bowls? Pretty good for 2 mediocre Big 10 teams. Purdue got overwhelmed, yes, but by a much more athletic and very motivated SEC team. Overall, I think the Big 10 is second only to the SEC in conference quality. And the PAC 12, while it has a lot of middling teams, it doesn't have the top tier quality this year of the Big 10. Utah can take advantage of OSU, Colorado, the Arizona teams, UCLA, a down USC team, the Ducks, etc, but I think their games with UW show how limited their offense is. Also a loss to ASU and Wazzu.
Northwestern is a very disciplined, determined team that mirrors their coach, and they are better than the sum of their parts. They got to the Big 10 championship game and were in it until the 4th quarter! Almost upset Michigan. Did upset MSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, and other than a loss to ND, they would have had a 8 game winning streak going into that championship game. They are better as underdogs, have a nice running game, and a defense that is great in the red zone. Utah is missing Zack Moss and Britain Covey, two of their best playmakers besides Huntley. I thought this number should be closer to 3.5, so what the hell, I'll take the points and hope that Utah offense struggles to score.
2* Northwestern +7.5 Yes I know Kyle Whittingham is 11-1 in bowl games, and that Tyler Huntley might start. I have been on Utah in previous bowls because Whittingham is great bowl coach. Yet Northwestern might be just the right team to upset them or keep within the number. Have you seen Minnesota and Wisconsin play in their bowls? Pretty good for 2 mediocre Big 10 teams. Purdue got overwhelmed, yes, but by a much more athletic and very motivated SEC team. Overall, I think the Big 10 is second only to the SEC in conference quality. And the PAC 12, while it has a lot of middling teams, it doesn't have the top tier quality this year of the Big 10. Utah can take advantage of OSU, Colorado, the Arizona teams, UCLA, a down USC team, the Ducks, etc, but I think their games with UW show how limited their offense is. Also a loss to ASU and Wazzu.
Northwestern is a very disciplined, determined team that mirrors their coach, and they are better than the sum of their parts. They got to the Big 10 championship game and were in it until the 4th quarter! Almost upset Michigan. Did upset MSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, and other than a loss to ND, they would have had a 8 game winning streak going into that championship game. They are better as underdogs, have a nice running game, and a defense that is great in the red zone. Utah is missing Zack Moss and Britain Covey, two of their best playmakers besides Huntley. I thought this number should be closer to 3.5, so what the hell, I'll take the points and hope that Utah offense struggles to score.
