Now SD State could still come back from 20, but that is not likely. It seems you can't win bowl games with just the better defense, and SD St. has the better defense. SD State's offense has been pretty much crap all season, and that's in the Mt. West. And QB play also seems huge in these bowl games, and SD State's QBs have also been crap most of the year.
.5 Buffalo -1.5 Smallest play of the bowl season, but as I wrote in the above post, better offenses can overcome the team with the better D IF the weaker offense has struggled to score in games vs. reasonably good competition. That describes Troy. That describes SD State and NIU. I'm not convinced that their QB, Sawyer Smith, will get the job done. Buffalo has the better QB, a mobile QB that can also pass pretty well. It's a small play because, well… it's the MAC. Buffalo is really jacked up to win this game, and have some good offensive weapons, but I don't completely trust that they'll stuff the Troy running game.
3* Boise -2.5 You'd think all of these 2.5 favorites would mean that the books are trying to draw money on these teams by only offering the dogs a +2.5…not even a FG. But after UAB and Ohio easily covered them, I can't worry about the line too much. In fact, other than one game(Ga. So- EMU), the line hasn't been a factor. Big one on Marshall tomorrow at 2.5.
This was back and forth for me. But ultimately, I think BC has been a very poor run defense against almost all of their decent opponents. Wake carved them up for 300, Syracuse for 200, Temple for 5.6 ypc, and others unmentioned. Boise's got both- a running and a passing game. Now BC's pass defense is better than their run defense, but I like Boise's willingness to open up the playbook vs. BC's overly conservative offense, and at times, defense. Boise has been a tough bowl teams over the years somewhat because of their willingness to game plan for this "one game" playoff called a bowl game. BC will have a healthier AJ Dillon, but his injuries having been nagging him all season. I also don't know how much their QB can do in the passing game. BC tends to pass often on 3rd down, after 2 runs. If Dillon is "on", this could keep them close or BC could win.
I remember last season when Boise was pretty big underdog to Oregon in their bowl game. But Boise's defense played it beautifully by pressuring every play, run or pass, and throwing the Ducks out of rhythm. The score was 38-28, but it was not that close. Oregon scored their 2 offensive TDs in the 4th qtr. in garbage time. Boise's defense has had some injuries, but even with that, they have played very well defensively, only having one poor game early on at Okie State. BC will have little fan support in Dallas, while Boise travels fairly well. Steve Addazio is 1-3 ATS in bowl games, but even his one win was close to the spread.
This was back and forth for me. But ultimately, I think BC has been a very poor run defense against almost all of their decent opponents. Wake carved them up for 300, Syracuse for 200, Temple for 5.6 ypc, and others unmentioned. Boise's got both- a running and a passing game. Now BC's pass defense is better than their run defense, but I like Boise's willingness to open up the playbook vs. BC's overly conservative offense, and at times, defense. Boise has been a tough bowl teams over the years somewhat because of their willingness to game plan for this "one game" playoff called a bowl game. BC will have a healthier AJ Dillon, but his injuries having been nagging him all season. I also don't know how much their QB can do in the passing game. BC tends to pass often on 3rd down, after 2 runs. If Dillon is "on", this could keep them close or BC could win.
I remember last season when Boise was pretty big underdog to Oregon in their bowl game. But Boise's defense played it beautifully by pressuring every play, run or pass, and throwing the Ducks out of rhythm. The score was 38-28, but it was not that close. Oregon scored their 2 offensive TDs in the 4th qtr. in garbage time. Boise's defense has had some injuries, but even with that, they have played very well defensively, only having one poor game early on at Okie State. BC will have little fan support in Dallas, while Boise travels fairly well. Steve Addazio is 1-3 ATS in bowl games, but even his one win was close to the spread.
Well, Blake Barnett is playing. Marshall, though, looks like the crisper, better executing team. Doc had his boys ready. Let's see how they finish.
As for the FIU, Toledo game Friday, I hate the makeup of each team. Terrible run defense. Each team could conceivably give up 300+ yards rushing. No play.
As for the FIU, Toledo game Friday, I hate the makeup of each team. Terrible run defense. Each team could conceivably give up 300+ yards rushing. No play.
Marshall wins. Bowls: 9-2, +22.7 units
Two things to go by in bowls:
1) If you like a play, sometimes bet it earlier than the day of the game. Marshall, Army, Fresno (others?) have moved the wrong way if you had bet on them. Marshall to 4, Fresno to 6, and now Army at 5.
2) Bowl games are NOT an extension of the season. They are a one and done playoff game, and teams that are well coached, or prep well, often win them. The final game or two of the season does not indicate how poorly or well a team will do.
Not a fan of the ACC in bowl games, but these I like:
3* Georgia Tech -5 Minnesota has two players sitting out due to their NFL draft preparations. Now Minnesota HC, PJ Fleck, has announced suspensions coming to starters- who as of now are unnamed. The Gophers have two key offensive performers that are both freshmen. And even though Ga. Tech has been a pretty bad defensive team, Minnesota has also had some absolute defensive blowouts too- 55 to Illinois, 53 to Nebraska, 48 to Iowa, 42 to Maryland.. As the bowl games are a one game season, don't focus too much on Minnesota's end of the year victory vs. Wisconsin, a flawed team anyways.
Ga. Tech will play hard for HC Paul Johnson, who is retiring. They are a hard team to prepare for defensively, and Minnesota hasn't faced anyone who runs the same type of offense. And remember GT ran off a 4 game winning streak toward the end of the season, I think mostly due to their difficult to defend offense, over Miami, Virginia VT, and UNC. Two of those on the road. I think Tech plays all out for their coach, and is able to keep a shorthanded, young Minnesota team in check for enough of the game to cover the 5. Wish it was 3, but the 5 tells me that the books are trying to draw some Minn. money.
3* Duke + 4.5 To take Duke you have to look past their season ending whooping by Wake Forest. Maybe the Dukies were studying too hard, maybe they were worn down by 7 weeks in a row of tough contests, and playing Clemson the week before. But in bowl games, David Cutcliffe is 4-0 ATS last 4, and that's off of similar seasons that were mediocre or slightly better like this one. Duke will get creative on offense, and have the QB that most folks think is just an accurate passer- but really is a pretty versatile QB in the running game. Temple loses another head coach, and now are on their 3rd in 4 years. The Temple players have to be a little dispirited in knowing that every coach they hire is using the Temple job as a stepping stone to something better. Temple also has an OC who has tried to make QB Anthony Russo run an offense he is ill suited for. They have the running game that can give Duke problems, but I think Cutcliffe and his coaching staff will game plan something to keep his team in the game. His teams are always in their bowl games, and sometimes win as underdogs. Besides, Temple also has some defensive flaws. Statistically, in defensive efficiency, Duke and Temple are both about 40th. Duke getting 4.5 is nice considering they very well can win this game.
Two things to go by in bowls:
1) If you like a play, sometimes bet it earlier than the day of the game. Marshall, Army, Fresno (others?) have moved the wrong way if you had bet on them. Marshall to 4, Fresno to 6, and now Army at 5.
2) Bowl games are NOT an extension of the season. They are a one and done playoff game, and teams that are well coached, or prep well, often win them. The final game or two of the season does not indicate how poorly or well a team will do.
Not a fan of the ACC in bowl games, but these I like:
3* Georgia Tech -5 Minnesota has two players sitting out due to their NFL draft preparations. Now Minnesota HC, PJ Fleck, has announced suspensions coming to starters- who as of now are unnamed. The Gophers have two key offensive performers that are both freshmen. And even though Ga. Tech has been a pretty bad defensive team, Minnesota has also had some absolute defensive blowouts too- 55 to Illinois, 53 to Nebraska, 48 to Iowa, 42 to Maryland.. As the bowl games are a one game season, don't focus too much on Minnesota's end of the year victory vs. Wisconsin, a flawed team anyways.
Ga. Tech will play hard for HC Paul Johnson, who is retiring. They are a hard team to prepare for defensively, and Minnesota hasn't faced anyone who runs the same type of offense. And remember GT ran off a 4 game winning streak toward the end of the season, I think mostly due to their difficult to defend offense, over Miami, Virginia VT, and UNC. Two of those on the road. I think Tech plays all out for their coach, and is able to keep a shorthanded, young Minnesota team in check for enough of the game to cover the 5. Wish it was 3, but the 5 tells me that the books are trying to draw some Minn. money.
3* Duke + 4.5 To take Duke you have to look past their season ending whooping by Wake Forest. Maybe the Dukies were studying too hard, maybe they were worn down by 7 weeks in a row of tough contests, and playing Clemson the week before. But in bowl games, David Cutcliffe is 4-0 ATS last 4, and that's off of similar seasons that were mediocre or slightly better like this one. Duke will get creative on offense, and have the QB that most folks think is just an accurate passer- but really is a pretty versatile QB in the running game. Temple loses another head coach, and now are on their 3rd in 4 years. The Temple players have to be a little dispirited in knowing that every coach they hire is using the Temple job as a stepping stone to something better. Temple also has an OC who has tried to make QB Anthony Russo run an offense he is ill suited for. They have the running game that can give Duke problems, but I think Cutcliffe and his coaching staff will game plan something to keep his team in the game. His teams are always in their bowl games, and sometimes win as underdogs. Besides, Temple also has some defensive flaws. Statistically, in defensive efficiency, Duke and Temple are both about 40th. Duke getting 4.5 is nice considering they very well can win this game.
Great comeback by Wake. Army marching down the field. Only got to cover 3.
1* TCU ML (+103) Pains me to bet against Cal, who finally has a top notch PAC 12 defense. But that's by PAC 12 standards. Justin Wilcox has revived the team, and I normally would take them in this spot. But the Cal offense is just so frustrating to watch. And they haven't improved, they've regressed. The only team they were offensively successful against was the woeful Beavers. Otherwise, they only have a drive here and a drive there vs. other teams. The receivers get no separation, run poor routes and drop too many passes. The QB, Garber, looks like he has potential, but is wildly inconsistent. They turn the ball over a lot, 26 this year. RB Patrick Laird is a decent short gainer type back. Cal fans, though, point to OC Beau Baldwin as the main reason for their suckiness. Even in games I've watched, he has made some curious calls.
TCU is semi-decimated with injuries. Their starting RB is out, and they are on their 3rd string QB. I'll go out on a limb and say that QB Grayson Muehlstein will do fairly well. He is a senior who is 2-0 as a starter, getting TCU into a bowl game by winning their last 2. His demeanor seems about right. He also has some very speedy weapons, and TCU will get them in space, and hope for some big gainers. I will also trust that TCU will get creative with what they do have offensively. Their D is still pretty good, although not as tough as in past years- mostly due to injuries. This play says Cal's offense is hopeless.
1* TCU ML (+103) Pains me to bet against Cal, who finally has a top notch PAC 12 defense. But that's by PAC 12 standards. Justin Wilcox has revived the team, and I normally would take them in this spot. But the Cal offense is just so frustrating to watch. And they haven't improved, they've regressed. The only team they were offensively successful against was the woeful Beavers. Otherwise, they only have a drive here and a drive there vs. other teams. The receivers get no separation, run poor routes and drop too many passes. The QB, Garber, looks like he has potential, but is wildly inconsistent. They turn the ball over a lot, 26 this year. RB Patrick Laird is a decent short gainer type back. Cal fans, though, point to OC Beau Baldwin as the main reason for their suckiness. Even in games I've watched, he has made some curious calls.
TCU is semi-decimated with injuries. Their starting RB is out, and they are on their 3rd string QB. I'll go out on a limb and say that QB Grayson Muehlstein will do fairly well. He is a senior who is 2-0 as a starter, getting TCU into a bowl game by winning their last 2. His demeanor seems about right. He also has some very speedy weapons, and TCU will get them in space, and hope for some big gainers. I will also trust that TCU will get creative with what they do have offensively. Their D is still pretty good, although not as tough as in past years- mostly due to injuries. This play says Cal's offense is hopeless.
The books must have gotten killed on that game. Spread moved from about 3 to 7, and for good reason.
4* Syracuse -1 Not on Syracuse just because of Will Grier sitting out. Their LT is also out, and he is a projected 1st rounder. One of their top WRs too, and he is a middle rounder. Mostly, because Dana Holgorsen is 1-4 in his last 5 bowls, and his team was in this Camping World Bowl just 2 years ago. This WVU team had high hopes going into their last 2 games, only to lose both. Many WV fans, and maybe the coaches, are a little glad Grier is sitting out. This is a 2nd tier bowl, and they want to know what they have at QB for next year. They want to know if they need to get a transfer QB in there or whether the 2 guys playing in Orlando are good enough. Both QBs will play, Jack Allison(10 attempted passes) and a true freshmen. Got a feeling this game is a tryout for a lot of young players on WV. It'll help them for next year, but maybe not in winning this bowl game.
Syracuse is thrilled to be in a bowl in Orlando. They haven't bowled for a few years, and this has been one of their better seasons in a while. They seem focused on this game. I had the impression they were better than most folks thought defensively- they are- 24th in defensive efficiency, which takes into account strength of schedule and garbage times scores. They played Clemson tough, only getting gassed late 4th quarter and losing by 4 on the road. Their only blowout loss was at Notre Dame when Dungey went out with an injury. They can run the ball, pass the ball and have an underrated defense. My only concern, and this is why it's not a 5* game, is that Dungey gets a little too improvisational at times, and can turn it over. On the other hand, he can also work magic at times being improvisational. WVU is 40th in defensive efficiency, but gave up 150 points total in 3 of their last 4 games. I think they are less than thrilled to be in this game, and I'm thinking Holgorsen treats it somewhat like a tryout for next year's positions.
4* Syracuse -1 Not on Syracuse just because of Will Grier sitting out. Their LT is also out, and he is a projected 1st rounder. One of their top WRs too, and he is a middle rounder. Mostly, because Dana Holgorsen is 1-4 in his last 5 bowls, and his team was in this Camping World Bowl just 2 years ago. This WVU team had high hopes going into their last 2 games, only to lose both. Many WV fans, and maybe the coaches, are a little glad Grier is sitting out. This is a 2nd tier bowl, and they want to know what they have at QB for next year. They want to know if they need to get a transfer QB in there or whether the 2 guys playing in Orlando are good enough. Both QBs will play, Jack Allison(10 attempted passes) and a true freshmen. Got a feeling this game is a tryout for a lot of young players on WV. It'll help them for next year, but maybe not in winning this bowl game.
Syracuse is thrilled to be in a bowl in Orlando. They haven't bowled for a few years, and this has been one of their better seasons in a while. They seem focused on this game. I had the impression they were better than most folks thought defensively- they are- 24th in defensive efficiency, which takes into account strength of schedule and garbage times scores. They played Clemson tough, only getting gassed late 4th quarter and losing by 4 on the road. Their only blowout loss was at Notre Dame when Dungey went out with an injury. They can run the ball, pass the ball and have an underrated defense. My only concern, and this is why it's not a 5* game, is that Dungey gets a little too improvisational at times, and can turn it over. On the other hand, he can also work magic at times being improvisational. WVU is 40th in defensive efficiency, but gave up 150 points total in 3 of their last 4 games. I think they are less than thrilled to be in this game, and I'm thinking Holgorsen treats it somewhat like a tryout for next year's positions.
2* Vandy -4 Matt Rhule is doing a nice job rebuilding the Baylor program from near scratch. And his QB, Charlie Brewer is a tough kid. Like Vandy, they won their final game and landed a bowl game. A bowl game in Texas, so they'll have a better turn out of fans than Vandy. That being said, I think Baylor is overmatched here. They don't run the ball very well, their top WR and NFL prospect, Jalen Hurd, is out. Their number 2 receiver, Mims, faded in his last 6 games, only catching 17 receptions at about 41 yards per game. Also, Charlie Brewer and Baylor QBs have been sacked 37 times. In watching the Baylor offense, it looks Brewer is under pressure almost immediately on every passing play. He is pretty good at moving around the pocket, occasionally running the ball. Otherwise this would be a 4*.
Vandy also has a distinct advantage in that they have played in the SEC, and hung in there with Notre Dame. They're a better defense statistically, in physicality and as tacklers. They have all the pieces on offense, but against other SEC quality defenses, haven't been consistent. The key player might not be QB Kyle Shurmur, but RB Ke' Shawn Vaughn, who is explosive, and complements their NFL prospect TE and WR Lipscomb. I think Baylor, will struggle to handle the Vandy running game. They caught Texas Tech in the last game with their 3rd string QB, got outplayed by Okie State but won, and otherwise took advantage of a down year for most of the Big 12 teams. Vandy is working hard at the fundamentals in practices, and seems very motivated to finally have a winning season, while Baylor might just be glad to be there. Baylor just seems like the worst kind of bowl team, one dimensional offense and a fairly poor defense. Not a fan of Derek Mason, but he can coach the defense up. Would have bet this higher, but if Charlie Brewer has a lights- out game, it could be close.
Vandy also has a distinct advantage in that they have played in the SEC, and hung in there with Notre Dame. They're a better defense statistically, in physicality and as tacklers. They have all the pieces on offense, but against other SEC quality defenses, haven't been consistent. The key player might not be QB Kyle Shurmur, but RB Ke' Shawn Vaughn, who is explosive, and complements their NFL prospect TE and WR Lipscomb. I think Baylor, will struggle to handle the Vandy running game. They caught Texas Tech in the last game with their 3rd string QB, got outplayed by Okie State but won, and otherwise took advantage of a down year for most of the Big 12 teams. Vandy is working hard at the fundamentals in practices, and seems very motivated to finally have a winning season, while Baylor might just be glad to be there. Baylor just seems like the worst kind of bowl team, one dimensional offense and a fairly poor defense. Not a fan of Derek Mason, but he can coach the defense up. Would have bet this higher, but if Charlie Brewer has a lights- out game, it could be close.
1* Purdue +4 Auburn has the talent and speed edge here for sure, but something tells me they'll lose this game. Gus hasn't ever won a bowl game vs. a power 5 team, he's 1-4 in bowl games, and maybe his whole damn program is just overrated. All season we waited for them to break out with all of that so-called talent, but they never really did. Only a late win vs. A&M, another disappointing team, gave them a statement win..unless you count Game 1 vs. Washington, in which they were outplayed but benefitted by some god-awful UW play calling in the red zone. Jeff Brohm has had a tough year himself, trying to recover from an 0-3 start with a young team. But Brohm is 4-0 in bowl games, and I think he'll find some success offensively somehow. I think he'll find ways to offset the Auburn defensive speed and add enough wrinkles to stay in the game. The Auburn run game is the X factor. It's been mediocre all year, but will it show up here? Purdue is excited to play in this game vs. an SEC team, and Auburn less so. No playoff game, no prominent bowl, and some NFL talent that might be more concerned about the draft than this game.
