Ethan Law
912 CIN -1.5 (+160) vs 911 HOU
Analysis:
HOU: RHP Woody Williams (0-5, 5.49 ERA) vs. CIN: RHP Matt Belisle (3-1, 4.10 ERA)
Down 2-0 in their four-game series with the Astros, the Reds, who have lost six of their last seven games, need to win the next two games for a split. Their first attempt to get it will be on Wednesday night at Great American Ball Park. Matt Belisle will start for the Reds against Astros right-hander Woody Williams. Against the Rockies on Friday, Belisle allowed five earned runs and nine hits over six-plus innings. He got a no-decision when the Reds went on to lose, 6-5, in 11 innings. The right-hander walked two and struck out five and gave up his first home run of the season when Todd Helton connected for two-run shot in the first inning. However, prior to that one poor start, Belisle nearly threw a no-hitter and he has become on the games elite starting pitchers (+$210 this season). Although, the Astros are off to a strong start against their NL Central foe Cincinnati 5-1 (+465), we cannot discount the fact that the Reds dominated the season series last year (10-5, +$570), and they are sending right-hander Woody Williams to the mound and his struggles are even more compounded in this situational spot. Williams has a whopping 7.03 ERA in five starts at Great American Ball Park during his career. Williams also has never won at Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park. In fact, he's never received a decision there but the fact that hes allowed 25 earned runs just 32 innings has us betting the Reds with confidence tonight. Look for the Reds to bounce back in a big way tonight.
Verdict: Houston 3, Cincinnati 9
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Paul Leiner
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Sport: Pro Baseball Pick
Game: Colorado/St Louis
Prediction: 5 Star Over 8.5 StL/Col
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Larry Ness' 15* AL Game of the Week (now 26-6 w/15* GOW plays in '07!)
My 15* play is on the Bal Orioles at 7:05 ET. The Orioles have lost five straight series (3-11 in games) but last night's 8-3 win over TB in the first game of this three-game series gives them a real chance to end their slide. The Orioles are 8-4 vs division opponents this year plus after winning two of three over the Devil Rays earlier TY, last night's win gives them NINE wins in their last 11 meetings with the perennial cellar-dwellers! Jamie Shields starts for Tampa tonight and he does bring a 3-0 (3.74 ERA) mark into the game but his worst start TY has come against these Orioles. Back on 4/16, he went 6.1 innings, allowing nine hits and five ERs. He's yet to get a decision in three career starts vs Baltimore but his ERA is 5.89 in the games, with TB losing all three. Note that as a rookie LY, Shields' ERA was 3.94 at home but 5.65 on the road. Also note that TB was a pathetic 20-61 on the road LY, including 8-18 vs lefties. Speaking of lefties, Erik Bedard goes for Baltimore tonight. His numbers have not been great TY, at 3-2 with a 5.63 ERa in seven starts, but Baltimore has won five of the seven games. Also note he beat the Devil Rays earlier TY and is 8-3 with a 3.19 ERA in 16 career appearances vs Tampa, with the Orioles going 11-4 in his 15 starts! AL Game of the Week 15* Bal Orioles.