Very true, although many respectable services do list units record in major sports like MLB and NHL that uses ML the most. They also would be the ones that list the units record for any sport anyway.
As for tracking purposes, almost all service picks do not put down the juice they get because they know that people get it different parts of the day. What juice would we end up tracking with?? The only ones that do list juice are the ones that are in a league for leaderboard stuff purposes.
What now? I'm not sure myself. We may have to continue relying on W-L even for baseball. We could end up using closing line at donbest if we have to (but the service picks would complain that it often ends up bloated for favorites, etcetera).
* CalvinTy
Great answer Calvin.
No question about it, baseball is tricky to track in this regard. But here's the way I look at it: Whether the play from the service is one play a day, multiple plays a day, mostly favorites or some dogs....I am much more willing to pay attention to the services with the higher winning percentage no matter who they are playing. If a service demonstrates a high winning percentage (or if you see that they are a nice winning streak) then it doesn't matter what the plays are, those plays are probably worth looking into.
And yes, certain services are more prone to take the -200 ML to pad the W~L records....and obviously the services that display a consistent pattern of doing so need to be taken less seriously than the others. But to tell you the truth, the services that seem to do this the most are actually not the ones with the higher winning percentages on our spreadsheets.
Bottom line: Never blindly tail or fade. Use your head. Investigate each play that catches your attention and use this spreadsheet as a tool but not as a roadmap.
Service Play Spreadsheet<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
></o>
<o></o>
We did not have any plays to track from Charlie yesterday, but at the risk of sounding like a broken record, the Charlie Bonus Plays are on a 8~0 streak with an overall season record of 18~6 (75%). Sure, he may eventually be due for a loss, but I am convinced that if you consistently play this guy’s plays you will be happy with the results.<o></o>
<o></o>
Stan Sharp went 1~0 last night, continuing a streak that is now 7~1 over his last 8 tracked plays and increased his overall season record to 22~8 (73%).<o></o>
<o></o>
Rocketman was inactive, but is still in the midst of an 8~2 streak over his last 10 tracked plays.<o></o>
<o></o>
Larry Ness appears to be heating up again. This is noteworthy since Larry Ness is a streaky capper. When he’s hot, he’s hot and when he’s not, he’s not. And his streaks tend to last about a week or when he gets going. Larry Ness is currently on an 8~3 streak over his last 11 tracked plays.<o></o>
<o></o>
Tony Onio (100* to 400* Plays) is now 8~2 over his last 10 tracked plays. To be more specific, it is his 200* rated plays that are hot right now. Interestingly, his higher rated 500* plays should be avoided.<o></o>
<o></o>
Service Fade Spreadsheet<o></o>
<o></o>
We had the opportunity to track another rare Stu Feiner 1000* Play last night (which are considered his “best” plays) and it lost, making him 0~2 on 1000* rated plays that we have been able to track this season. LOL.<o></o>
<o></o>
Are you all getting sick of me mentioning Hondo every single day? Well I am going to do it again. Hondo went 0~2 last night, providing more evidence as to why I have telling you that he is the best fade on the board. His current losing steak has now been extended to 2~13 over his last 15 plays! FADE AWAY!!<o></o>
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
></o>We did not have any plays to track from Charlie yesterday, but at the risk of sounding like a broken record, the Charlie Bonus Plays are on a 8~0 streak with an overall season record of 18~6 (75%). Sure, he may eventually be due for a loss, but I am convinced that if you consistently play this guy’s plays you will be happy with the results.<o
></o><o
></o>Stan Sharp went 1~0 last night, continuing a streak that is now 7~1 over his last 8 tracked plays and increased his overall season record to 22~8 (73%).<o
></o><o
></o>Rocketman was inactive, but is still in the midst of an 8~2 streak over his last 10 tracked plays.<o
></o><o
></o>Larry Ness appears to be heating up again. This is noteworthy since Larry Ness is a streaky capper. When he’s hot, he’s hot and when he’s not, he’s not. And his streaks tend to last about a week or when he gets going. Larry Ness is currently on an 8~3 streak over his last 11 tracked plays.<o
></o><o
></o>Tony Onio (100* to 400* Plays) is now 8~2 over his last 10 tracked plays. To be more specific, it is his 200* rated plays that are hot right now. Interestingly, his higher rated 500* plays should be avoided.<o
></o><o
></o>Service Fade Spreadsheet<o
></o><o
></o>We had the opportunity to track another rare Stu Feiner 1000* Play last night (which are considered his “best” plays) and it lost, making him 0~2 on 1000* rated plays that we have been able to track this season. LOL.<o
></o><o
></o>Are you all getting sick of me mentioning Hondo every single day? Well I am going to do it again. Hondo went 0~2 last night, providing more evidence as to why I have telling you that he is the best fade on the board. His current losing steak has now been extended to 2~13 over his last 15 plays! FADE AWAY!!<o
></o>
If you check the service forum you will see a link where i have other selections for free that did not make the full card today. This one is on the premium card. My record is incorrect in this spreadsheet I'm 73-38 this season +$4214 only playing 16 favorites.
TOR: RHP Dustin McGowan (0-0, 7.59 ERA)
vs.
PHI: RHP Jon Lieber (1-2, 2.83 ERA)
Philadelphia dropped two of three to the Blue Jays last year, in the first games the Phillies played in Toronto since 2000. The Blue Jays are visiting Philadelphia for the first time since 2001, as the clubs kick off Interleague Play with a weekend series beginning Friday Both these clubs have underachieved up to this point in the season, but the Phillies seem to be coming around (7-3 +$400 last 10 days with 5.9 runs per game and an 3.25 ERA among starters), and that’s still not something you can say about Toronto (5-5 last 10 days with 2.9 runs per game and an 4.79 ERA among starters, Despite the fact that they just swept Baltimore the past series in Toronto. However, if history repeats itself, the Jays might not be “hot” for long. Toronto has gone 83-92 (.474) since Interleague Play was introduced back in 1997. That's the fifth-worst record of any American League team. The only time the Jays finished above .500 against the National League was in 2003, when they went 10-8. Of significance for this match-up, Philadelphia’s offense against right-handers has been very effective, particularly in night games at Citizens Bank (7-2, +$475 with 6.4 runs per game). That’s very bad news for Toronto’s 25-year-old right-hander Dustin McGowan, who hasn't earned a decision in two starts this season 7.59 ERA. McGowan hasn't lasted more than 5 2/3 innings this year, and lefties are hitting a whopping .450 against him! Even worse, McGowan is 1-3 with a 8.85 ERA in 16 appearances away from Rogers Centre. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays should have their hands full with Jon Lieber, who has been sensational in his first five starts this year (2.83 ERA), which is not good news for this Toronto team that is a pitiful 10-17 against right-handers so far this season (-$950 with only 4.0 runs per game). In three starts against the Blue Jays, Lieber has one win and a 3.13 ERA. The Jays' poor record, and the fact that they will be forced to sit designated hitter Frank Thomas (their most dangerous bat) for their upcoming series against the Phillies, gives us even more enthusiasm about the home team in this machup, even if the price is a bit expensive.
Verdict: Toronto 3, Philadelphia 7
PLAY 1* UNIT ON PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +$115
TOR: RHP Dustin McGowan (0-0, 7.59 ERA) vs.
PHI: RHP Jon Lieber (1-2, 2.83 ERA) Philadelphia dropped two of three to the Blue Jays last year, in the first games the Phillies played in Toronto since 2000. The Blue Jays are visiting Philadelphia for the first time since 2001, as the clubs kick off Interleague Play with a weekend series beginning Friday Both these clubs have underachieved up to this point in the season, but the Phillies seem to be coming around (7-3 +$400 last 10 days with 5.9 runs per game and an 3.25 ERA among starters), and that’s still not something you can say about Toronto (5-5 last 10 days with 2.9 runs per game and an 4.79 ERA among starters, Despite the fact that they just swept Baltimore the past series in Toronto. However, if history repeats itself, the Jays might not be “hot” for long. Toronto has gone 83-92 (.474) since Interleague Play was introduced back in 1997. That's the fifth-worst record of any American League team. The only time the Jays finished above .500 against the National League was in 2003, when they went 10-8. Of significance for this match-up, Philadelphia’s offense against right-handers has been very effective, particularly in night games at Citizens Bank (7-2, +$475 with 6.4 runs per game). That’s very bad news for Toronto’s 25-year-old right-hander Dustin McGowan, who hasn't earned a decision in two starts this season 7.59 ERA. McGowan hasn't lasted more than 5 2/3 innings this year, and lefties are hitting a whopping .450 against him! Even worse, McGowan is 1-3 with a 8.85 ERA in 16 appearances away from Rogers Centre. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays should have their hands full with Jon Lieber, who has been sensational in his first five starts this year (2.83 ERA), which is not good news for this Toronto team that is a pitiful 10-17 against right-handers so far this season (-$950 with only 4.0 runs per game). In three starts against the Blue Jays, Lieber has one win and a 3.13 ERA. The Jays' poor record, and the fact that they will be forced to sit designated hitter Frank Thomas (their most dangerous bat) for their upcoming series against the Phillies, gives us even more enthusiasm about the home team in this machup, even if the price is a bit expensive.
Verdict: Toronto 3, Philadelphia 7
PLAY 1* UNIT ON PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +$115
you are right about what lines to use, that is the hardest part of tracking plays. i like to use closing lines, that way if you get a few more wins (or better odds) than the track shows, great. it's better than doing worse than a track shows. i personally don't care what a service thinks, i only care about people winning if they follow a service.
Another thing I have noticed is that a lot of service won't even list the number of runs they are playing on Over/ Under totals. So when I track these types of plays I always look at the closing lines from multiple books and I grade these plays based on the widest available numbers available to the general public.
My Plays for Fri. 5~18~7:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<o></o>
STL ML +101<o></o>
MIL ML (5-Inning) –159<o></o>
MIL ML –161<o></o>
BAL ML –117<o></o>
LAD ML (5-Inning) –113<o></o>
LAD ML -110<o></o>
<o></o>
Season Record: 87~55~2<o></o>
<o></o>
(I might add some more later tonight)
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
></o>STL ML +101<o
></o>MIL ML (5-Inning) –159<o
></o>MIL ML –161<o
></o>BAL ML –117<o
></o>LAD ML (5-Inning) –113<o
></o>LAD ML -110<o
></o><o
></o>Season Record: 87~55~2<o
></o><o
></o>(I might add some more later tonight)
Larry Ness' 15* IL Game of the Week (34-8 with 15* GOW plays since Opening Day!)
My 15* play is on the Mil Brewers at 8:05 ET. The Twins dominated the NL last year, going 16-2 in IL play (plus-$1505)! However, that was THEN and this is NOW! Minnesota won its game on May 1 but limps into this game having lost 11 of its last 14 games this month. The team has not been able to score, as excluding the team's 16-run effort Sunday night in beating the Tigers, has scored just 35 runs in the other 13 games, an average of just 2.69 runs per game! Boof Bonser got the win in Sunday's game with Detroit, his first win of 2007 (eight starts). He hasn't pitched all that poorly (4.33 ERA) but this guy looks like nothing more than a mediocre pitcher, considering his 7-6, 4.22 mark last year in 18 starts with the Twins, a team that won 96 games! The Twins have struggled vs lefties this year, going 5-10 (minus-$890) and draw a very tough one tonight. Milwaukee's Chris Capuano is 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA in 2007 (eight starts). He lost his first game of the year in his last outing but the team is 7-1 in his starts this season. Milwaukee is 5-0 in Capuano's home starts this year and since the beginning of the 2005 season, has gone 27-11 in his starts at Miller Park. Milwaukee just completed a seven-game road trip at 2-5 but let's remember this team is 16-5 at home in '07, after going 9-1 in its last homestand. Even last year when the Brewers failed to produce a winning record once again (last winning season came in 1992), the team went 48-33 in Miller Park. This year's team owns the NL's best record in 2007 at 26-15 and behind Capuano, gets the win here. IL Game of the Week 15* Mil Brewers.
My 15* play is on the Mil Brewers at 8:05 ET. The Twins dominated the NL last year, going 16-2 in IL play (plus-$1505)! However, that was THEN and this is NOW! Minnesota won its game on May 1 but limps into this game having lost 11 of its last 14 games this month. The team has not been able to score, as excluding the team's 16-run effort Sunday night in beating the Tigers, has scored just 35 runs in the other 13 games, an average of just 2.69 runs per game! Boof Bonser got the win in Sunday's game with Detroit, his first win of 2007 (eight starts). He hasn't pitched all that poorly (4.33 ERA) but this guy looks like nothing more than a mediocre pitcher, considering his 7-6, 4.22 mark last year in 18 starts with the Twins, a team that won 96 games! The Twins have struggled vs lefties this year, going 5-10 (minus-$890) and draw a very tough one tonight. Milwaukee's Chris Capuano is 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA in 2007 (eight starts). He lost his first game of the year in his last outing but the team is 7-1 in his starts this season. Milwaukee is 5-0 in Capuano's home starts this year and since the beginning of the 2005 season, has gone 27-11 in his starts at Miller Park. Milwaukee just completed a seven-game road trip at 2-5 but let's remember this team is 16-5 at home in '07, after going 9-1 in its last homestand. Even last year when the Brewers failed to produce a winning record once again (last winning season came in 1992), the team went 48-33 in Miller Park. This year's team owns the NL's best record in 2007 at 26-15 and behind Capuano, gets the win here. IL Game of the Week 15* Mil Brewers.
Scott Spreitzer's 15* IL Bailout Game of the Week! -- 6-0, 100% in May!
I'm taking the price with the Angels on Friday night. The Halos have owned this series taking five of the last six in Angel Stadium. They've also taken two of three in IL play when Brad Penny has toed the rubber. Ervin Santana will go for the Angels. His home/road dichotomy is as wide as it gets. You either play AGAINST him or stay away from the game when Santana starts on the road. But he's almost an automatic PLAY-ON when he's on the home bump. Including this season's strong home start, the righty is now 21-6 in his last 34 at Angel Stadium. He owns a 3.04 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a .226 batting average against! He also has a lot of offense to count on. Since getting healthy, the Angels are 7-2 in their last nine. The 7 wins have come by a combined score of 42-13! Meanwhile, the Dodgers are averaging just 3.71 RPG away from home in May. They just took a pair of series against the NL Central's two worst teams. Tonight, they face a serious step up in competition, both at the plate and on the mound. The Dodgers should NOT be favored. We'll take advantage. The Angels are my IL Bailout.
I'm taking the price with the Angels on Friday night. The Halos have owned this series taking five of the last six in Angel Stadium. They've also taken two of three in IL play when Brad Penny has toed the rubber. Ervin Santana will go for the Angels. His home/road dichotomy is as wide as it gets. You either play AGAINST him or stay away from the game when Santana starts on the road. But he's almost an automatic PLAY-ON when he's on the home bump. Including this season's strong home start, the righty is now 21-6 in his last 34 at Angel Stadium. He owns a 3.04 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a .226 batting average against! He also has a lot of offense to count on. Since getting healthy, the Angels are 7-2 in their last nine. The 7 wins have come by a combined score of 42-13! Meanwhile, the Dodgers are averaging just 3.71 RPG away from home in May. They just took a pair of series against the NL Central's two worst teams. Tonight, they face a serious step up in competition, both at the plate and on the mound. The Dodgers should NOT be favored. We'll take advantage. The Angels are my IL Bailout.
Ethan Law
COL -1.5 (+120) vs 973 KAN
Analysis: KC: LHP Jorge De La Rosa (4-3, 3.6 vs. COL: LHP Jeff Francis (2-4, 5.0
The box office at Coors Field wont find it very easy to unload tickets for this debacle. The Rockies are once again firmly entrenched in the NL West basement, but they look like championship material next to the hapless Royals (14-27, -$690 overall). Two lefties will go at it in Game 1 as Jorge De La Rosa takes on Jeff Francis. De La Rosa is 3-3 during 19 appearances in May with a 5.90 ERA. Kansas City is only 8-13 on the road this year, and they have yet to beat a left-hander pitcher (0-10 -$1000, with only 4.0 runs per game). Jeff Francis got off to a lousy start, but his last two outings have been much better (2.40). Francis had his strongest start of the season on Saturday, holding the Giants to four hits and a walk in a 6-2 win. He snapped a string of five starts without a win, demonstrating command of his fastball throughout his eight innings on the mound, making it his longest start of the season. Francis will be countered by left-hander Jorge De La Rosa, who has been alternating good start with bad starts in his past five outings, was in line for a solid start last time out and he delivered. He picked up his fourth win on the season and first road victory of the year on Sunday in Chicago. As stated above, the Royals offense is weak, and without the use of the designated hitter they should be in for a long days, similar to the old Coors Field nights where boatloads of runs will be put up. Unfortunately for them, most of those runs will come from the Rockies.
Verdict: Kansas City 3, Colorado 8
PLAY 1* UNIT ON COLORADO -1.5 +$120
COL -1.5 (+120) vs 973 KAN
Analysis: KC: LHP Jorge De La Rosa (4-3, 3.6 vs. COL: LHP Jeff Francis (2-4, 5.0
The box office at Coors Field wont find it very easy to unload tickets for this debacle. The Rockies are once again firmly entrenched in the NL West basement, but they look like championship material next to the hapless Royals (14-27, -$690 overall). Two lefties will go at it in Game 1 as Jorge De La Rosa takes on Jeff Francis. De La Rosa is 3-3 during 19 appearances in May with a 5.90 ERA. Kansas City is only 8-13 on the road this year, and they have yet to beat a left-hander pitcher (0-10 -$1000, with only 4.0 runs per game). Jeff Francis got off to a lousy start, but his last two outings have been much better (2.40). Francis had his strongest start of the season on Saturday, holding the Giants to four hits and a walk in a 6-2 win. He snapped a string of five starts without a win, demonstrating command of his fastball throughout his eight innings on the mound, making it his longest start of the season. Francis will be countered by left-hander Jorge De La Rosa, who has been alternating good start with bad starts in his past five outings, was in line for a solid start last time out and he delivered. He picked up his fourth win on the season and first road victory of the year on Sunday in Chicago. As stated above, the Royals offense is weak, and without the use of the designated hitter they should be in for a long days, similar to the old Coors Field nights where boatloads of runs will be put up. Unfortunately for them, most of those runs will come from the Rockies.
Verdict: Kansas City 3, Colorado 8
PLAY 1* UNIT ON COLORADO -1.5 +$120
Gator's 70% Situations
NBA Playoff Game (Friday) pass
MLB (Friday) Play Against MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a team that averages <=0.5 errors per game on the year after 3 straight games where they stranded 5 or fewer runners on base.
(47-13 last 5 seasons.) (78.3%) PLAY: Cleveland -180
_________________
NBA Playoff Game (Friday) pass
MLB (Friday) Play Against MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a team that averages <=0.5 errors per game on the year after 3 straight games where they stranded 5 or fewer runners on base.
(47-13 last 5 seasons.) (78.3%) PLAY: Cleveland -180
_________________
BIG AL MCMORDIE
MLB Texas vs. Houston
Take Texas Rangers
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers, as we will play AGAINST Matt Albers, who has an 11.59 Home ERA this year and a 3.86 WHIP. Also, Robinson Tejeda has a 1.80 ERA in his lifetime starts vs. the Astros, with a 1.20 WHIP.
Take Texas
Good luck, as always...Al McMordie
MLB Texas vs. Houston
Take Texas Rangers
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers, as we will play AGAINST Matt Albers, who has an 11.59 Home ERA this year and a 3.86 WHIP. Also, Robinson Tejeda has a 1.80 ERA in his lifetime starts vs. the Astros, with a 1.20 WHIP.
Take Texas
Good luck, as always...Al McMordie
Jim Feist. My free pick of the day is the game between (977) SDG Padres and (978) SEA Mariners. Take "(977) SDG Padres". Seattle hasn't had much of a home field edge this season, and that's because the pitching staff is third-worst in the AL. San Diego brings its strong staff and bullpen up the coast. 6-foot-10 starter Chris Young has been excellent, at 4-3 with a 3.11 ERA. Seattle starter Miguel Batista has struggled (6.98 ERA), with a whopping 64 base runners in 38 innings. Seattle has scored 3 runs or less in 8 of 11 games. Play the Padres
Dave Cokin. My free pick of the day is the game between (951) ARI D'backs and (952) PIT Pirates. Take "(952) PIT Pirates". Get Dave's Interleague Game of the Year FREE at 1-888-389-7223! This play has been a blowout winner each of the last three seasons, and this year's Interleague Game of the Year (which goes Saturday) looks every bit as strong. Here's your chance to score a huge play from Smokin' Dave Cokin at zero cost, so make sure and take advantage by calling Dave right now at 1-888-389-7223!... "It's sometimes better to be lucky than good. Just ask Arizona's Doug Davis, who's been pretty good so far, but hasn't enjoyed much luck. The result is an ugly 0-4 ledger on the road, and I see him heading to 0-5 tonight. Ian Snell has been close to lights out for the Pirates and he's been worth backing on several occasions this season. I'll take my chances with Snell again this evening, and will recommend the Pirates for the day's Bonus Play."
Dennis Macklin
Twins at Brewers
Prediction: Brewers
The Twins are struggling mightily at the moment and would appear to be up against it again tonight at Miller Park. Minnesota is just 1-7 in their L8 and face Brewer ace and southpaw, Chris Capuano.
The Twinkies are just 5-10 against lefties hitting an anemic .245 and average just 3.4 rpg. Capuano is off to a great start and barring injury is likely to be first Brewer to win 20 since Teddy Higuera. The Brew Crew have won all five of CC's home starts (7-1 overall) outscoring their opponents 26-11 and CC has done his part with 2.93 ERA.
Capuano won both home starts against Minnesota in 2006 allowing just two earned runs in 13 and 2/3 innings work. The Brewers are off 2-5 roadie at Mets and Phils but have taken care of business here (16-5) and against losing records (14-7). We're getting off cheap at 50 cents.
Take Milwaukee.
Twins at Brewers
Prediction: Brewers
The Twins are struggling mightily at the moment and would appear to be up against it again tonight at Miller Park. Minnesota is just 1-7 in their L8 and face Brewer ace and southpaw, Chris Capuano.
The Twinkies are just 5-10 against lefties hitting an anemic .245 and average just 3.4 rpg. Capuano is off to a great start and barring injury is likely to be first Brewer to win 20 since Teddy Higuera. The Brew Crew have won all five of CC's home starts (7-1 overall) outscoring their opponents 26-11 and CC has done his part with 2.93 ERA.
Capuano won both home starts against Minnesota in 2006 allowing just two earned runs in 13 and 2/3 innings work. The Brewers are off 2-5 roadie at Mets and Phils but have taken care of business here (16-5) and against losing records (14-7). We're getting off cheap at 50 cents.
Take Milwaukee.
