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In sorry - but that ridiculous percentage is wrong - or you would fade it and win at a 95% rate. Which isnt possible. .Rule No. 5 - 95/5: 95% of the time the public is wrong when it comes to gambling. I love it when I see lots of people on the opposite of a wager I'm on.
Track the oppsositon and see what percentages are opposite of your plays.
That would be INTERESTING to see the percentage of wins or losses you have when that occurs.
Let us know what source youre going to use for that.
IF that ends up being true - Im sure everyone will be tailing you - even me.
GL.
Here are the early percentages right now @ The RX ODDS page(Aug 24th) showing percentages on each side of the plays you bet last month for week 1.
Patriots +3 - 1 unit. (66% With you on RX)
Falcons +3.5 - 1.5 units . (53% RX) With you
Steelers +6.5 - 1.5 units (77% on Pitt) With you.
Seahawks +4.5 - 1.5 units (94%on Denver) Against you.
Thats 3 of 4 - WITH YOU. Which is NOT what you want...right?
Lets see what happens by game day.
The line on this game opened at Rams -1 but they are now a 2.5 point home dog. Teams that open as home favorites but close as home dogs in week one have done well over the past ten seasons finishing 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS.
| Wk 1 | 2012 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| R3YA | R2YA | RLS | CRS | RVS | ODStk | StQB | Team | @ | Team | StQB | ODStk | HVS | CHS | RLS | R2YA | R3YA | Line | Score | ST3Q | T/O | OL |
| 5-11 | 7-9 | 7-9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | L1R | Wilson | Sea | @ | AZ | Kolb | W2H | 3-0 | 5-0 | 8-8 | 5-11 | 10-6 | +3 | 20-16W | 13-13 | 2-2 | -1 |
| 13-3 | 7-9 | 11-5 | 0-3 | 0-1 | W1H | Brees | NO | @ | Atl | Ryan | L1R | 0-2 | 0-1 | 4-12 | 13-3 | 10-6 | +3 | 37-34W | 24-20 | 1-2 | -1 |
| 10-6 | 5-10-1 | 7-9 | 0-3 | 1-0 | W1R | B'water | Min | @ | SF | K'pernick | W4R | 2-0 | 1-0 | 8-8 | 12-4 | 11-4-1 | +3 | 20-3W | 10-0 | 1-1 | -4.5 |
| 12-4 | 7-8-1 | 15-1 | 0-1 | 2-0 | W2R | Newton | Car | @ | Den | Siemian | W4H | 9-0 | 2-0 | 12-4 | 12-4 | 13-3 | +3 | 21-20W | 7-17 | 3-1 | -1.5 |
| 11-5 | 13-3 | 7-8-1 | 2-0 | 0-3 | L1H | Palmer | AZ | @ | Det | Stafford | W1R | 5-0 | 0-1 | 9-7 | 7-9 | 11-5 | +2.5 | 35-23W | 15-17 | 0-1 | -3 |
| 8-8 | 11-5 | 10-6 | 0-1 | 4-0 | W1R | Ryan | Atl | @ | Phi | Foles | W2R | 3-0 | 0-1 | 13-3 | 7-9 | 7-9 | +1 | 18-12W | 10-6 | 2-1 | -4 |
| 7-9 | 4-12 | 11-5 | 3-0 | 2-0 | W1H | Goff | LAR | @ | Oak | D. Carr | W2R | 0-1 | 0-1 | 6-10 | 12-4 | 7-9 | +6.5 | 13-33L | 13-20 | 3-0 | -1.5 |
| 9-7 | 5-11 | 6-10 | 0-2 | 0-1 | W7H | Flacco | Den | @ | Oak | D. Carr | L1H | 1-0 | 2-0 | 4-12 | 6-10 | 12-4 | +3 | 24-16W | 14-6 | 0-0 | -2.5 |
| 9-7 | 9-7 | 9-7 | 3-0 | 1-0 | W1R | Tannehill | Ten | @ | Den | Lock | L1R | 1-0 | 4-0 | 7-9 | 6-10 | 5-11 | +3 | 14-16L | 7-7 | 1-0 | -1.5 |
| 10-6 | 11-5 | 12-4 | 3-0 | 0-1 | W2R | Wilson | Sea | @ | Ind | Wentz | L7R | 7-0 | 2-0 | 11-5 | 7-9 | 10-6 | +3 | 16-28L | 10-21 | 1-1 | -2.5 |
| 6-9-1 | 13-3 | 13-3 | 2-0 | 1-0 | W6R | Rodgers | GB | @ | NO | Winston | W2H | 2-0 | 1-0 | 12-4 | 13-3 | 13-3 | +3.5 | 38-3W | 24-3 | 0-3 | -3 |
| 10-6 | 13-3 | 11-6 | 1-0 | 0-1 | L1H | Allen | Buf | @ | LAR | Stafford | W5H | 1-0 | 0-1 | 12-5 | 10-6 | 9-7 | +2.5 | -1 |
On the flip side there have been seven instances where the home team opened as a home dog but closed as a home favorite s/'12. They finished 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS.
| Wk 1 | 2012 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| R3YA | R2YA | RLS | CRS | RVS | ODStk | StQB | Team | @ | Team | StQB | ODStk | HVS | CHS | RLS | R2YA | R3YA | Line | Score | ST3Q | T/O | OL |
| 13-3 | 9-7 | 8-8 | 1-0 | 1-0 | W1H | Rivers | SD | @ | Oak | Palmer | W1R | 0-3 | 0-2 | 8-8 | 8-8 | 5-11 | -1 | 14-22L | 6-16 | 1-0 | +2 |
| 7-9 | 6-10 | 7-9 | 0-4 | 0-1 | L2R | Tannehill | Mia | @ | Cle | Weeden | L8H | 2-0 | 0-1 | 5-11 | 4-12 | 5-11 | -2.5 | 10-23L | 10-13 | 3-1 | +1.5 |
| 6-10 | 7-9 | 12-4 | 1-0 | 1-0 | L5H | Anderson | Car | @ | TB | McCown | L1R | 1-0 | 0-1 | 4-12 | 7-9 | 4-12 | -4.5 | 14-20L | 0-10 | 3-0 | +2 |
| 3-13 | 7-9 | 12-4 | 0-1 | 4-0 | W1R | D. Carr | Oak | @ | Ten | Mariota | L1H | 2-0 | 4-0 | 9-7 | 3-13 | 2-14 | -3 | 16-26L | 13-16 | 0-0 | +1 |
| 11-5 | 8-8 | 8-8 | 0-1 | 3-0 | L3H | Tolzien | Ind | @ | LAR | Goff | L1R | 0-2 | 0-7 | 4-12 | 7-9 | 6-10 | -3 | 46-9W | 37-3 | 1-3 | +3 |
| 9-7 | 10-6 | 11-5 | 1-0 | 5-0 | W1H | Wilson | Sea | @ | Atl | Ryan | L2R | 0-2 | 2-0 | 7-9 | 7-9 | 10-6 | -1 | 25-38L | 12-28 | 2-0 | +1 |
| 12-4 | 5-11 | 7-9 | 2-0 | 0-2 | W2R | Herbert | LAC | @ | Was | Fitzpatrick | W1H | 1-0 | 0-2 | 7-9 | 3-13 | 7-9 | -2 | 16-20L | 16-13 | 1-2 | +1.5 |
| 6-10 | 11-5 | 8-9 | 0-4 | 0-1 | L3R | Brissett | Cle | @ | Car | Baker | W1H | 0-1 | 0-6 | 5-12 | 5-11 | 5-11 | -1 | +4.5 |
Rule No. 7 - Don't watch preseason football and expect to get a feel for a team.
There are some historical opening day streaks happening this year:
The Rams have won 5 straight week one games, which ties a team record since the Rams moved from Cleveland to Los Angeles in 1946.
Indianapolis has lost eight straight week one games dating back to 2014. That ties a team worst streak since the Colts were formed in 1953.
The Saints have won three straight games on opening day, which ties a team best streak since the team was formed in 1967.
Atlanta has lost four straight week one games, which is a team worst streak since the Falcons were formed in 1966,
The Giants are currently on a 5 game losing streak on opening day, which ties a team worst streak since the team was formed in 1925.
Kansas City has won 7 straight week one games, tying a team best streak since they were first formed in 1960.
Seattle has won their last three week one games, tying a team best streak since Seattle was formed in 1976.
The Rams have won 5 straight week one games, which ties a team record since the Rams moved from Cleveland to Los Angeles in 1946.
Indianapolis has lost eight straight week one games dating back to 2014. That ties a team worst streak since the Colts were formed in 1953.
The Saints have won three straight games on opening day, which ties a team best streak since the team was formed in 1967.
Atlanta has lost four straight week one games, which is a team worst streak since the Falcons were formed in 1966,
The Giants are currently on a 5 game losing streak on opening day, which ties a team worst streak since the team was formed in 1925.
Kansas City has won 7 straight week one games, tying a team best streak since they were first formed in 1960.
Seattle has won their last three week one games, tying a team best streak since Seattle was formed in 1976.
Rule No. 8 - "Any Given Sunday" definitely applies to week one. Don't be too quick to fade teams in week one that are poised to have a really bad season. Almost every year there is an upset in week one by a team that goes on to stink out the joint the rest of the season. Here are the results for the last 25 years.
1997 - Both the Cardinals and the Bears would finish 4-12 SU but covered on opening day.
1998 - The Bears again would go 4-12 on the season but cover in week one.
1999 - The Saints finish 3-13 on the year but win SU & ATS against the Panthers opening day.
2000 & 2001 - Not one but two teams go 1-15 on the season and manage to cover in week one, the Chargers in 2000 and the Panthers in 2001. (Carolina won SU as 10 point dogs at Minnesota and then would lose 15 straight to close out the season).
2002 - None
2003 - The Giants win SU & ATS week one but only win 3 games the rest of the year.
2004 - Both the Browns and 49ers cover in week one but finish 4-12 and 2-14 respectively.
2005 - Both the Saints and 49ers cover in week one but finish 3-13 and 4-12 respectively.
2006 - The Lions finish 3-13 on the season but cover as 6 point dogs at home to the Super Bowl runner up Seattle Seahawks.
2007 - None
2008 - Kansas City Chiefs go 2-14 but cover against the Super Bowl runner up Patriots opening day. (The year before was the 16-0 regular season for New England).
2009 - Washington goes 4-12 but covers in week one.
2010 - None
2011 - The Vikings finish the season 3-13 but cover as road dogs to the Chargers in week one.
2012 - The eventual 2-14 Jaguars cover as road dogs at Minnesota, almost pulling off the upset as the game went into OT.
2013 - The Raiders cover as road dogs to the Jets but finish the season 4-12 SU.
2014 - The Raiders again have a rough year finishing 3-13 but cover in week one. The Titans finish the season 2-14 but win SU opening day at Arrowhead against the Chiefs.
2015 - Once again the Titans have a terrible season finishing 3-13 but win SU week one at Tampa Bay. Also, the Chargers would finish 4-12 that year but won SU & ATS week one.
2016 - The 49ers finish 2-14 but win SU & ATS by a score of 28-0 at home on opening day.
2017 - The eventual 0-16 Cleveland Browns cover as home dogs to the Steelers in week one. QB Deshone Kizer was making his first ever start for Cleveland.
2018 - The Jets finish 4-12 that season but win SU as 7 point road dogs to the Lions on MNF by a score of 48-17. QB Sam Darnold was making his first ever start for NY.
2019 - The eventual 2-14 Bengals cover as 9.5 point road dogs at Seattle, losing 21-20.
2020 - The Jaguars win SU as 7 point home dogs to the Colts but would lose their last 15 games.
2021 - The Texans easily defeat the Jaguars 37-21 opening day last year but finish the season 4-13.
2022 - ?
1997 - Both the Cardinals and the Bears would finish 4-12 SU but covered on opening day.
1998 - The Bears again would go 4-12 on the season but cover in week one.
1999 - The Saints finish 3-13 on the year but win SU & ATS against the Panthers opening day.
2000 & 2001 - Not one but two teams go 1-15 on the season and manage to cover in week one, the Chargers in 2000 and the Panthers in 2001. (Carolina won SU as 10 point dogs at Minnesota and then would lose 15 straight to close out the season).
2002 - None
2003 - The Giants win SU & ATS week one but only win 3 games the rest of the year.
2004 - Both the Browns and 49ers cover in week one but finish 4-12 and 2-14 respectively.
2005 - Both the Saints and 49ers cover in week one but finish 3-13 and 4-12 respectively.
2006 - The Lions finish 3-13 on the season but cover as 6 point dogs at home to the Super Bowl runner up Seattle Seahawks.
2007 - None
2008 - Kansas City Chiefs go 2-14 but cover against the Super Bowl runner up Patriots opening day. (The year before was the 16-0 regular season for New England).
2009 - Washington goes 4-12 but covers in week one.
2010 - None
2011 - The Vikings finish the season 3-13 but cover as road dogs to the Chargers in week one.
2012 - The eventual 2-14 Jaguars cover as road dogs at Minnesota, almost pulling off the upset as the game went into OT.
2013 - The Raiders cover as road dogs to the Jets but finish the season 4-12 SU.
2014 - The Raiders again have a rough year finishing 3-13 but cover in week one. The Titans finish the season 2-14 but win SU opening day at Arrowhead against the Chiefs.
2015 - Once again the Titans have a terrible season finishing 3-13 but win SU week one at Tampa Bay. Also, the Chargers would finish 4-12 that year but won SU & ATS week one.
2016 - The 49ers finish 2-14 but win SU & ATS by a score of 28-0 at home on opening day.
2017 - The eventual 0-16 Cleveland Browns cover as home dogs to the Steelers in week one. QB Deshone Kizer was making his first ever start for Cleveland.
2018 - The Jets finish 4-12 that season but win SU as 7 point road dogs to the Lions on MNF by a score of 48-17. QB Sam Darnold was making his first ever start for NY.
2019 - The eventual 2-14 Bengals cover as 9.5 point road dogs at Seattle, losing 21-20.
2020 - The Jaguars win SU as 7 point home dogs to the Colts but would lose their last 15 games.
2021 - The Texans easily defeat the Jaguars 37-21 opening day last year but finish the season 4-13.
2022 - ?
What do the 2008 Lions and the 2017 Browns have in common? They both went 4-0 in the preseason and both went 0-16 during the regular season.
Most of the people I see are infatuated with the players. They "think" history plays no part in the outcomes. Silly thinkers!
If that's what you think I'm really interested in seeing some of your selections this season.
Some of these young guys have no idea how long I've been doing this.
Bills @ Rams. Im not on either side tonight but personally I think the Rams come out flat and the Bills beat them. But what I think doesnt matter. If I can't produce a side through handicapping I dont play it.
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