Giants vs Mets O7.5
Yankees vs Tigers Under 8.5
Rangers v Mariners Over 8
Marlins ML -125
Diamondbacks v Nationals Under 9
MLB POTDPLAY ——- Chicago White Sox RL (+135 playable to +115)
Starting something new as many have been clamoring for some depth to my baseball analysis —- and rightfully so. If you wanted just the numbers you’d ask a robot, or worse some NERD. You come here for the juice, for the angles, for the reasons beyond the box scores —- and ya know what I owe ya that. So without further adieu……
The White Sox enter this matchup as the favorites, a spot in which they’re 6-1 this season. I think this trend continues, especially with right-hander Dylan Cease as the projected starting pitcher. Through two starts, Cease is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA, .938 WHIP and 16 strikeouts through 10 2/3 innings. Cease’s metrics suggest we shouldn’t see regression anytime soon as he boasts a .244 xwOBA, .185 xBA, and .235 xSLG.
Cease should also get good run support, as the White Sox are slated to go against right-hander Zach Plesac. In 119 career plate appearances against Plesac, this White Sox roster boasts a .289 xBA, .495 xSLG and .344 xwOBA
While Plesac’s surface-level numbers are very good, his metrics suggest that regression is imminent. This season, Plesac possesses a .396 xwOBA, .309 xBA and .630 xSLG. He got shelled last season when facing the White Sox. Through four starts against Chicago, Plesac had a 7.56 ERA and 1.680 WHIP.
Even if Plesac gets chased early, Cleveland’s bullpen will most likely also struggle, as the Guardians’ relief pitchers have gotten off to a rough start this year. Currently, Cleveland’s relief pitching ranks just 22nd in the league in ERA, 19th in BA, 26th in SLG, and 23rd in wOBA.
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