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- Thread starter omgbokie
- Start date

The way he chooses

(whether he chooses Kelly's criterion or something else..),

or the

(doubles or trebles or..).

------------------------

I'm not opening this theme for "martingale supporters" and homemade systems, I want to talk about betting from the real, scientific, point of view.

(And if you want to include tips and tipsters into this talk, then be prepared to give their full statistics, including some standard deviation calculus on them, so we can conclude which one is true and which one was just lucky..)

So all "scientific stuff" (as far as I am concerned) will be said in the way that 6th grader could understand .

Ok, first for all of you who are not realy sure what Kelly´s criterion is or maybe haven´t heard of it at all, here´s the explanation:

Imagine that you are playing a game of coin tossing and every time you guess the outcome - you get $1.10 profit, but if you miss - you lose $1.00. (Of course no one will give you that deal but we are using it to show the point) So, if you play that game for 200 tossing and guess 100 times and miss 100 times, you will have 100 x 1.10x = +$110.00 and 100 x (-1.00) = -$100.00, that means you´ll have +$10.00 on your balance. Nothing new here yet.

The question is can we extract more from that? Well, we can try investing $5.00 instead $1.00 - then we would earn $5.50 when we guess and lose $5.00 when we miss. Using the same logic we could try investing all $200.00 of our Bank, but who can guarantee that you won´t miss the first one and go broke.

The question that we must ask ourselves is: can we calculate the best amount so we can extract maximum money, that is through this situation, offered to us?

To make long story short, american mathematician

The equation says that optimum invest amount (

So in our example where chances (s) were 50% (coin toss) and odds (k) were 2.10 (that is decimal format for +110) the optimum invest amount would be

U = (2.10 * 0.50 - 1) / (2.10 - 1)

U = 0.045, meaning that 4.5

One more thing, sometimes it is hard to say what are the correct chances for someone to win the game or something alike. So, chances are the parameter - to which we must approach with caution and always take the smaller value instead of the bigger one, if we are not sure.

Also it would be a

Imagine this: you play two tips a day, you guess 100% every time - what system would you play? Accumulator two out of two seams as the only logical system, it would be a big mistake to play two singles instead. Why? Well, if you have $200.00 and you put $100.00 on first and $100.00 on second (let them be +100 or decimal 2.00) you would have $400.00 but instead of that let say you played system 2/2 (doubles accumulator) - and invested $200.00 your winnings would then have been $800.00

What if you guess the outcome in 99% of time? 98%? 97%? When does it become more profitable to play singles?

Many people take for granted that playing singles is "the only way" to bet. As we have showed in example - it is not always the most profitable. Calculating the most profitable system is hard job, but it can be simply calculated by advanced betting calculators available on internet.

Let me show you what I mean..

let say you found 8 games (odds +100) and you have 60% of guessing that kind of odds in past plays.. Can you tell which system will bring back the highest gain in long term?

Well, the answer is not easy to calculate, that is why we use calculators, answer is 2/8 and with an invest of 76.8% of our Bank we would achive maximum value of 1.173 times our bank per system. Try to input your data and see your own potencial.

Hi, thanks for joining.. I agree with you, you couldn't be more right when you say that "..many thing matter in winning sports bets.." Of course, bookies are offering to us odds based on mathematical calculus and "other" stuff like instinct and the market law of supply and demand.. so it is an opportunity to extract profit if one knows how. Best way to do so is if you can tell "this odds are a gift considering chances.." (value bet) and then math again comes to the scene in shape of Kelly's criterion, mentioned above. But if there were several games playing at the same time and all of them were "value bets" you must use some serious math if you want to extract maximum money out from the situation.. example: 8 games starts simultaneously, they are all "coin toss winner - probability" in your opinion - but bookie gives +150 on each. What do you do? Play singles?.. I don't expect that people will know the correct answer, maybe some will instinctively say "no, singles are too small for this..", but honestly I think that less then one out of million knows the calculus procedure for finding the right result. That is why I recomend use of tools like advancedbetcalc for all those millions who don't know how to calculate that with ease. And now about your observation how "..math stuff is far down the list..": If you would play singles, you would then have, after 30 same situations, 66xBank, but I would have 126xBank if I have played system 2/8 (doubles) - that is somewhat around double more money I still agre with you, but maybe you should think about agreeing with me We are leaving a lot of money to bookies, whether we were winners or loosers last time we gambled.. ..whether we lost - or we failed to monetize our knowledge of sports..However many thing matter in winning sports bets (quite a few)..... this type of math stuff is far down the list. Interesting nerd gossip, though. Witness. the huge participation you are getting!

But for now, lets stick to the part that comes after we have picked our favourites..

So, we have 5 games to wager on. They all play at different time. All even odds (+100) and we think that we have good chance to win some money by using a "chase" principle.

Well, the answer is: no, we don't have good chances. We have average chances, actually, in the long terms, the same chances for losing our money - as to win any. Notice that it is the same situation that we have when we play only one game. So, why waste time x5?

But don't get scared and believe that "the chase is a dangerous road", it is not dangerous - the thing about it is - we know where it leads, it leads to zero. Eventually you lose, bad luck streak catches you and you lose all winnings and end up in zero, as you would if you have played singles, with even odds and maching chances. "Chase" is an illusion and winning long term in that mode can be achieved only if you pick winners above expectations.

But, if you do pick winners more often than the average player, you have real chance to be a successfull bettor.

And then, it is so important to use any tool that will give you the edge over bookies, especialy in therms of an invest size and accumulator systems.

By using math you could calculate gain achieved by using chase and the one achieved when some real science was used. If I go deeper in calculus, then my promise about 6th graders understanding this, will be broken.. so for now this will have to do

And "chase" vs "real math" will have to become "well known fact that math rules any time.."

It seems to me that too many people (among which are many good players) stay way below their potential, just because they choose wrong system for their good picks and also the wrong invest amount..

But can it be so simple?

To take some historical data and say: I've been guessing this +110 odds in 58% throughout last year (or last 600 games..) so now all I have to do with this 6 picks is to - play this system (2/6), with that invest amount (58.5%).. to achieve theoretical maximum.. and extract every and last coin that belongs to me..

(calculated with:

In my opinion, yes. Because just look the alternative.. The alternative is chaos, or misleading by thinking that stuff we (or somebody we heard them from) hoped to be right without really calculating them.

Please stop leaving your money with bookies

Let's make little things, that will make us richer, because we were a little bit smarter this time..

Example can be seen in tennis betting, where average men don't know how to recognize value in 1st set winner betting; let's say odds are 3.00 for 2:0 and 7.00 for 0:2 (max 3 sets) and 1st set is 1.50 (1:0) vs 3.00 (0:1) (decimal odds).

Is there a value in any bet? Well, if 2:0 & 0:2 are ok, then 1st set 1:0 should be 1.47 or else people that bet on 1st set 1:0 will be in + long term.. (1st set 1:0 must be 2*(2:0)*(0:2)/((2:0)*(0:2)+(0:2)-(2:0)).

Of course, now we can use Kelly criterion and start making money faster than card counters