Belmont Stakes

[Kaboom]

[h=1]Recent Workouts for Belmont Stakes[/h][FONT=&quot] WORKOUTS ON FAST DIRT UNLESS NOTED ... from downey profile




May 31, Bravazo one mile in 1.42:60 Breezing 1/1 at CD

May 29, Justify four in 46:80 Breezing 1/43 at CD

May 29, Restoring Hope seven in 1.26:00 Breezing 1/1 at CD

May 28, Free Drop Billy five in 59:60 Breezing 2/25 at CD

May 26, Blended Citizen four in 47:55 Breezing 1/35 at BEL

May 26, Gronkowski four in 47.99 Breezing 3/35 at BEL

May 25, Hofburg six in 1.13:43 Breezing training track 1/1 at SAR

May 25, Noble Indy four in 47:04 Breezing 1/36 at BEL

May 25, Vino Rosso four in 47:04 Breezing 1/36 at BEL

May 22, Restoring Hope five in 1.00:00 Breezing 1/19 at CD

May 21, Free Drop Billy four in 47:60 Breezing 1/51 at CD

May 18, Hofburg four in 49:32 Breezing 6/50 at SAR

May 14, Restoring Hope four in 47:00 Breezing 1/23 at CD







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[Kaboom]

In the last 28 editions of the Belmont Stakes, only one, American Pharoah, won the race with profile points under twelve.
Important to note, in the 76 editions of the Belmont stakes since 1940, only three horses managed a win with Profile Points Total under twelve;
2015 Pharoah had 8.
1959 Sword Dancer had 10.
1943 Count Fleet had 4.


Toss only one horse from Win Shot

Gronkowski ... 10 points

..

New Entry just announced

Seahenge

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/OBrien_contender_raises_Belmont_2018_probables_to_11_123#

 

[Kaboom]

Not sure if this one has any value but I'd thought I would share regardless ...

Only positive feedback .... anything that is close to bashing ...ignore list you go ...getting too old for that nonsense ...

Belmont Stakes

No horse since 2000 ( Last 18 Years ) has won the Belmont Stakes with 5 % or more of Secretariat in it's line breeding ...

No horse since 2011 has finished in 1st or 2nd place with 5 % or more of Secretariat in it's line breeding ...

This year's list of Horse's which have 5 % or more of Secretariat in their line breeding ....

Free Drop Billy 10 %
Tenfold 7 %
Restoring Hope 13 %
Noble Indy 16 %

I know you guys will probably just laugh at this info , it's cool nonetheless , imo ...

 

[Kaboom]

[h=1]Dosage / CD / Dosage Points Past Belmont Winners 1970 to Now[/h]
Guys this is not a say all ... just something I noticed .... I'm still including Justify in a few tickets ...probably make zero money doing it , but I will try ..

[FONT=&quot]3 Horses outside my numbers NOT TO WIN ... does it matter ??? Maybe ???
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[FONT=&quot]Vino Rosso ...there has never been a horse who won Belmont with Dosage between 3.54 and 4.00 .... Vino Rosso Dosage 3.57 ... probably can overlook , but noted .... also .... no past Belmont Winner with DI between 3.16 to 3.53 had Dosage Points lower than 20 ... Vino Rosso has 16 Dosage Points ...
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[FONT=&quot]Gronkowski ... No Belmont Winner from 1970 to present has won with exact Dosage of 3.00 ...with Dosage Points lower than 16 .... Gronkowki has 10 Dosage Points ....
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[FONT=&quot]Seahenge ... No Belmont Winner from 1970 to present has won with exact Dosage of 3.00 with a CD above 1.00 .... Seahenge has a CD of 1.06 ...
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[FONT=&quot]Only 1/ 9 Horses since 1970 that have won the Belmont with an Exact Dosage of 3.00 and a Brilliant Number of below 6 ... that's the first number in the dosage points ... example ... 4-10-11-1-0 (26) ... look at the 4 .... that's it ...
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[FONT=&quot]This year we have a bunch of horses with the 3.00 Exact Dosage .... most of those are Under the 6 Number in the Dosage Points ...
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[FONT=&quot]Blended Citizen .... 5-7-12-0-0 (24)
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[FONT=&quot]Gronkowski .......... 3-2-5-0-0 (10)
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[FONT=&quot]Justify ..................... 5-6-8-1-0 (20) .... WOW !!!!
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[FONT=&quot]Tenfold ................... 5-8-13-0-0 (26)
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[FONT=&quot]Noble Indy ............. 4-5-9-0-0 (18)
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Positive feedback only ... thx

 

[drpugilist]

thanks for the work kaboom!

 

[Kaboom]

thanks for the work kaboom!

Thx for the stop in bro ...GL !!!

 

[Kaboom]

[FONT=&quot]Added Workouts !!!!
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[FONT=&quot]From Downey Profile
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[FONT=&quot]June 3, Free Drop Billy five in 59:20 Breezing 1/15 at CD
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[FONT=&quot]June 2, Blended Citizen five in 1.00:64 Breezing 4/9 at BEL
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[FONT=&quot]June 2, Gronkowski five in 1.01:87 Breezing good track: 4/8 at BEL
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[FONT=&quot]June 2, Tenfold five in 1.01:60 Breezing 27/42 at CD
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[FONT=&quot]June 1, Noble Indy five in 1:01.22 Breezing good training track (1/10) at BEL
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[FONT=&quot]June 1, Vino Rosso five in 1:01.55 Breezing good training track (3/10) at BEL
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[Kaboom]

Just some cool facts ...last 6 Years ... that's all that's offered over the web with past performances .... anybody that has PP"S Belmont Stakes 2011 or earlier please share .... thank you ....

Last 6 Years

3/6 Winners of Belmont have had the Dam Average Winning Distance 8.1 to 8.5

This Year's horse's with Dam Side 8.0 or above .... Vino Rosso / 8.0 ....Freed Drop Billy / 8.1

1st or 2nd Place last 6 Years

If you combine the Sire and Dam Average Winning Distance .... 6 in Win position / 6 in Place Position ...

1 out 12 Possible spots had a combine Sire/Dam Avg. Winning Distance of below 14 .... in 2015 Winner American Pharoah had 13.8 ( Triple Crown Runner )

If tailing the above you would eliminate 2 horses from a shot at finishing in 1st or 2nd place .... by far not a say all ... just looking over numbers guys

Seahenge ... Avg Win distance 13.7

Boble Indy ....Avg Win distance 13.2


4/6 Winners ...a Difference of 1.00 or More between the Sire and Dam Average Winning Distance

This year's contenders with a 1.00 or more difference between the Sire and Dam Average Winning Distance

Only 1 Horse ... wow ...Hmmmm ...

Free Drop Billy 1.00


4/6 Winners have had the Dam Average Winning Distance higher than the Sire Winning Distance

with the smallest advantage of the 4 winners being .5 of a difference

Example

2016 Winner Creator had Dam Avg Win Dist 8.5
Sire Avg Win Dist 7.5

The Dam Avg Win Dist was 1.00 better than the Sire Avg win Dist


So if liking this angle ....not a say all ...again just looking at numbers

Contenders who have at least a .5 Advantage on the Dam Avg win Dist ...

Free Drop ... 8.1 Dam / 7.1 Sire

Gronkowski ...7.5 Dam / 6.8 Sire

Vino Rosso ....8.0 Dam / 7.5 Sire ........... feel this horse is very under the radar Pletcher entry


Now all winners last 6 years had a difference of .5 between Sire and Dam or Dam and Sire ....

Example

2017 Winner Tapwrit Dam Avg Win Dist 6.7 to Sire Avg Win Dist 7.5 ... that's a difference of .8 ... which is higher than the .5 difference needed ...if tailing this angle .... of course ...your call ... just sharing


This year's Contenders who have the .5 advantage between the Sire and Dam

Bravazo .8

Free Drop Billy 1.00

Gronkowski .7

Hofburg .7

Noble Indy .6

Restoring Hope .5

Seahenge .7

Vino Rosso .5

Only 3 horses don't have a .5 advantage in either the Sire or Dam Avg Win Distance

Justify

Blended Citizen

Tenfold


2nd Place in Belmont last 6 years ... probably nothing here but posting anyway ...something I noticed

5/6 that finished in 2nd Place had a higher Sire Avg Win Dist than a Dam Avg Win Dist by .8 or more ??? WOW !!! Weird !!!!

Only horse that falls under this weird small angle

Bravazo .8 Diff ... Sire higher than Dam avg win dist ... dam 6.6 to sire 7.4



Nothing set in stone here guys ...just number crunching , is all ...

 

[sunshine11]

Good magic not running?

 

[Kaboom]

good magic not running?

nope ...

 

[sunshine11]

That stinks. He was the winner. Oh well. Let me know when he races next. Lolol

 

[Michelangelo]

Thanks Kabloom.

 

[Scott68]

Love all the info … thanks for sharing!!

Taking my 13 year old daughter and a bunch of her friends to a simulcast site on Saturday to teach them how to wager on dogs/ponies. Horribly inappropriate *lol* but should be great fun.

 

[sunshine11]

Love all the info … thanks for sharing!!

Taking my 13 year old daughter and a bunch of her friends to a simulcast site on Saturday to teach them how to wager on dogs/ponies. Horribly inappropriate *lol* but should be great fun.

Emerald Downs? I live just 6 minutes away from the track.

 

[Kaboom]

Thanks Kabloom.

You are welcome ... appreciate the stop in ....GL !

 

[Kaboom]

Love all the info … thanks for sharing!!

Taking my 13 year old daughter and a bunch of her friends to a simulcast site on Saturday to teach them how to wager on dogs/ponies. Horribly inappropriate *lol* but should be great fun.

Start em young bro ...LOL .... sounds like a cool time indeed ! .... Thx for stopping by ... GL on Sat with the race and daughter /friends !

 

[Baldheadedprick]

Kaboom I was wrong today at 5:30 PM EST is the Belmont Draw

 

[Kaboom]

Kaboom I was wrong today at 5:30 PM EST is the Belmont Draw

Thx bald !!! Appreciate the update !!! Pumped bro ...

 

[Prof_Factor]

Any dream experts here? Because last night I dreamt the Belmont Stakes was won by a horse named THE FAIL SAFE and paid $171.00 to win. Dream was vivid but focus was on the result and not the race running itself. Makes absolutely no sense to me. Got up this morning, checked my database for that name, thinking I must have seen it subliminally. Nope. Doesn't exist. Went online to pedigree site. Nope. Never existed.
So what am I to make of all this?? I don't play video games or anything that could explain the name. Doesn't appear to be any anagram. Ideas?
And why can't we dream something that is useful ..... like a real future event!

Anyways, thanks for your contributions, Kaboom. Great stuff!!

 

[Kaboom]

That's too funny bro ... only 3 word horse is ....Free Drop Billy 50-1 ... is your name Bill ? LOL !!

Thanks for stop in bro ....GL on Sat !!!