Frankly, I'm shocked at the content in this thread. I should have asked THIS in my quiz
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1. Runlines typically suck vs. MLs since most books have dimelines on sides, but 20 cents (or more) on RLS. You can lay -1.5, or take +1.5, either way you get pulverized by the much higher house advantage. NEITHER is a good play most of the time in competively priced games.
2. When the ML goes to -210 or higher, RLS become more of an option. Since most places now price sides with at least 15 cents total vig or more (-220 +205), the RL at least is not blown out of the water in terms of value.
3. Rogue MLS often exist at weak shops that allow sharp bettors to take advantage.
4. RLines offer great correlated parlay bets at select shops for sharp bettors.
5. Pinny has 10 cent RLines vs. 8 cent sides. Obviously, you are going to find some RL plays here that have value.
What is going on here at Rx.com with horrendous posts like "Never lay -1.5 on home teams" or "Always take 1.5 on big dogs, etc!". You would think we all just started betting bases for the first time in our lives. Ideally, you should make up a chart that shows the proper conversion from ML to RL. Obviously the conversion factor is going to be the highest for
1) Home Favs and
2) Low totals.
Having said all this, guys who are far smarter than me have done all this work, and the R/Ls presented typically match the chart for the game perfectly. So it is possible to find a team with a suspect bullpen, etc. where the RL vs. ML conversion from the chart may be off, but it likely is off just a bit.
FINAL CONCLUSION: Generally avoid RLines, but actively look for good rogue RLines on teams you were going to bet, especially in games where no good side Rogue lines are available. And actively shop RLs on huge vig games you are playing (-260, +230). In these game, the RLs offerred for FAV AND DOG typically offer as much value as the sides.
!
1. Runlines typically suck vs. MLs since most books have dimelines on sides, but 20 cents (or more) on RLS. You can lay -1.5, or take +1.5, either way you get pulverized by the much higher house advantage. NEITHER is a good play most of the time in competively priced games.
2. When the ML goes to -210 or higher, RLS become more of an option. Since most places now price sides with at least 15 cents total vig or more (-220 +205), the RL at least is not blown out of the water in terms of value.
3. Rogue MLS often exist at weak shops that allow sharp bettors to take advantage.
4. RLines offer great correlated parlay bets at select shops for sharp bettors.
5. Pinny has 10 cent RLines vs. 8 cent sides. Obviously, you are going to find some RL plays here that have value.
What is going on here at Rx.com with horrendous posts like "Never lay -1.5 on home teams" or "Always take 1.5 on big dogs, etc!". You would think we all just started betting bases for the first time in our lives. Ideally, you should make up a chart that shows the proper conversion from ML to RL. Obviously the conversion factor is going to be the highest for
1) Home Favs and
2) Low totals.
Having said all this, guys who are far smarter than me have done all this work, and the R/Ls presented typically match the chart for the game perfectly. So it is possible to find a team with a suspect bullpen, etc. where the RL vs. ML conversion from the chart may be off, but it likely is off just a bit.
FINAL CONCLUSION: Generally avoid RLines, but actively look for good rogue RLines on teams you were going to bet, especially in games where no good side Rogue lines are available. And actively shop RLs on huge vig games you are playing (-260, +230). In these game, the RLs offerred for FAV AND DOG typically offer as much value as the sides.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Frankly, I'm shocked at the content in this thread. I should have asked THIS in my quiz
!
What is going on here at Rx.com with horrendous posts like "Never lay -1.5 on home teams" or "Always take 1.5 on big dogs, etc!". You would think we all just started betting bases for the first time in our lives. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Fez, this should not be surprising. If you were looking for a bunch of sharps, you are in the wrong place. Here at RX we would rather comment on threads such as "What is your favorite breed of dog?" and "How many times do you scratch your balls per day?"
Forum content is now at an all-time low
!
What is going on here at Rx.com with horrendous posts like "Never lay -1.5 on home teams" or "Always take 1.5 on big dogs, etc!". You would think we all just started betting bases for the first time in our lives. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Fez, this should not be surprising. If you were looking for a bunch of sharps, you are in the wrong place. Here at RX we would rather comment on threads such as "What is your favorite breed of dog?" and "How many times do you scratch your balls per day?"
Forum content is now at an all-time low
I respect your knowledge and insight Fezzik but I bet the minus R/L on favs that are -150 or higher only. Otherwise, the juice eats you alive when they lose straight up. As far as taking the plus R/L, I think it's a bad move for much the same reasons. Too much juice given up on a loss of 2 or more and sacrificing way too much plus money on a win in the first place.
Please everyone.... Shut up and listen to Fez!
Bottom line.... As always
If the runline had much value, you think it would be offered. It is just another possible choice to seperate chumps from the money!
If books had any balls at all they would,
1) Be careful of REAL sharpies (not many around by percentage)
2) Limit those sharpies in some way.
3) Let the rest bet whatever they damn well please and laugh their ass of all the way to the bank!
There is no real recipe for success. SOME baseball runlines are good plays. Too many different variables to cover in a two day seminar, much less a post on the RX.
All the little piss-ant school kids on here are always looking for ironclad systems that wins.
Guess what kids... There are not any!
That is how the big books get big and stay big!
Just telling you the balls on truth.... Not what you want to hear!
I will get some amens on this from the REAL longtime players.
Bottom line.... As always
If the runline had much value, you think it would be offered. It is just another possible choice to seperate chumps from the money!
If books had any balls at all they would,
1) Be careful of REAL sharpies (not many around by percentage)
2) Limit those sharpies in some way.
3) Let the rest bet whatever they damn well please and laugh their ass of all the way to the bank!
There is no real recipe for success. SOME baseball runlines are good plays. Too many different variables to cover in a two day seminar, much less a post on the RX.
All the little piss-ant school kids on here are always looking for ironclad systems that wins.
Guess what kids... There are not any!
That is how the big books get big and stay big!
Just telling you the balls on truth.... Not what you want to hear!
I will get some amens on this from the REAL longtime players.
