Baseball Run Lines - Betable or for Squares Only?

[wilheim]

Lay -1.5 plus money - take +1.5 minus money - lay -1.5 minus money on big favorites. Anyone use run lines with success?

wil.

 

[MadCapper]

I have used +1.5 run line with alot of success.

As for -1.5 run line....it depends on the situation. But NEVER use the -1.5 line on a home team.


-MC

 

[Hitman26]

Fezzik? I would love to hear you chime in on this thread.



Hitman

 

[ClayHenry]

If I'm betting a favorite, I will almost always bet the RL.

 

[SportSavant]

I have had PHENOMENAL success betting into RUN lines with my LOCAL,

always taking the Dog...a(amazing how many dogs lose by exactly one run)...

Thing is however my LOCAL has a tendancy to juice up the FAV's meaning I can get the dogs on the RUN line at much better value than I could get on the Net...

Statistics on how many games a losing team loses by 1 RUN would be interesting...

good thread.

 

[ClayHenry]

I could be wrong but I thought it was around 25-30%of MLB games are decided by one run.

 

[FairWarning]

I would think teams going against a number 4 or 5 pitcher getting 1.5 would be a pretty decent play.

 

[Gagne38]

Last year there were 635 1-run games out of a total of 2429 games played. That is 26.14%. I don't think there is an advantage either way,

 

[wilheim]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Last year there were 635 1-run games out of a total of 2429 games played. That is 26.14%. I don't think there is an advantage either way <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Plenty of them were won by the dog outright. In which case the plus 1.5 runs did not come into play.

wil.

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Plenty of them were won by the dog outright. In which case the plus 1.5 runs did not come into play.

wil. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

excellent point...however how much vig do we lay to get the runs?

A better study may be to take the BOTTOM half of the league & see how often they won outright or lost by 1 run...

 

[MadCapper]

The stat you should look at is either...

1: How many times did the Underdog either Lose by just 1 run or win outright.

2: How many times did a Favorite win by at least 2.


-MC

 

[CharlieChan]

Like to lay the runs with small favorts plus the juice.

 

[CaPPiNgTiGeRz]

On the underdog side i do use the RL through out the season depending on the situation, not much on the fav side.

 

[RobFunk]

yup. . .what charlie chan said and +1.5 is real good. laying -1.5 on the home team is usually never a good idea unless you have capped the absolute piss out of the game and you are sure there is no way on earth itll be close.

 

[Gagne38]

In those 635 one run games the -1 1/2 is a loser and the +1 1/2 is a winner regardless of who won the game, favorite or underdog.

 

[randyrohm]

I haven't run the numbers but I hate playing home favs -1', it always bites me in the ass when they score 1 in the bottom of the 9th for the GW.

 

[wilheim]

Gagne38 - I understand that, problem is trying to identify how many times the plus 1.5 runs actually came into play. Obviously it (1.5 runs) did not matter in all 635. I hate to give up 45 or 50 cents in juice to get the extra runs, then win outright and get no plus juice.

wil.

 

[RobFunk]

yes, plus when you lose -1.5 outright you saved juice on your loss. and when you lose +1.5 you usually lost more juice. but randyrohm said it best. it tottaly sucks ass to lay -1.5 and lose by 1 especially when you didnt get that bot of the 9th.

 

[Gagne38]

Well Obviously the +1 1/2 did not come into play on all 635 games(26%), so that is why I said there is no advantage either way. Even if the +1 1/2 did come into play the whole 26%, that still is not profitable and as far as laying the -1 1/2, you definitely lost all 26% of the games and that too is bad.

 

[SportSavant]

wil from what I have seen u like ML underdogs?