BACK AGAIN-- My Inter Conference OVERS Posted Here Last Year Hit at 80%

thesandman1 · Oct 5, 2014

Four plays for week 5

You guys are right. I was going to post these last night, but I had a feeling the totals would be lower this morning. As it was, three stayed the same but Arizona/Denver did drop a point. Since the bad first week, every week has been a winning week. I don't like the Detroit/Buffalo OVER because of Detroit's defense and Orton at QB for the Bills, but the whole idea behind what I am doing is to play EVERY Inter Conference game and not try to cherry pick; however, it's up to you which games you play.

Four plays today, two early and two late. Nothing tonight or Monday.

PLAY HOUSTON/DALLAS OVER 47
PLAY BUFFALO/DETROIT OVER 43
PLAY ARIZONA/DENVER OVER 47
PLAY KANSAS CITY/SAN FRANCISCO OVER 44

Last Week: 2-1

Week One: 0-4
Weeks Two thru Four: 10-5

All Picks: 10-9

oddball · Oct 5, 2014

Detroit 12-2 overs in their last 14 interconf games

thesandman1 · Oct 5, 2014

That helps oddball and is the reason I play every I C game, no matter what it looks like on the surface.

thesandman1 · Oct 5, 2014

Except, I just remembered the Detroit/Jets game a couple of weeks ago didn't go OVER. Must have been 12-1 before that game so lets hope the trend continues.

oddball · Oct 5, 2014

Got this from the thread of THEGAME9000

thesandman1 · Oct 5, 2014

Best we can do is just lose the juice, which after three winning weeks would be OK. Can't believe Dallas and Houston score only 3 points in the first half and 34 points in the second half. At least the two afternoon games are starting better with 10 and 13 points scored, both still in the first quarter.

thesandman1 · Oct 6, 2014

Sorry for the bad losing week. I was hoping for a split after the two losing morning plays but the Niners were in the Red Zone and went for the FG, when we needed a TD late. The day and week ended 1-3.

I'm still not worried, one reason being the new emphasis on defensive penalties helping the offense keep drives alive. I don't know if you were watching the third quarter of the New England game tonight when they mentioned and posted on the screen that thru Week Four, there were 38 Defensive Hands to the Face penalties last year and 90, way more than twice as many, this year. I had posted before that the increase in Defensive penalties, keeps drives alive and will help more of these games to go OVER, although this week must be the exception.

No plays till next Sunday.

SUMMARY:

Last Week: 1-3

Week One: 0-4
Weeks Two thru Five: 11-8

All Picks: 11-12

sunshine11 · Oct 6, 2014

Keep dreaming about your winning system. Systems don't work. Lol

TomandJerry · Oct 10, 2014

This week inter-conference games: MIAMI/GREEN BAY, BALTIMORE/TAMPA BAY, CAROLINA/CINCINNATI.

RainmanTrail · Oct 11, 2014

rowdyroddy said:
Its a simple "past history will show future results" plan - everybody has their slant or logic for betting.
personally I love betting Dome overs, especially out of division.
GL with play

I would advise you to proceed with caution with logic like this. Dome games are only slightly higher scoring than outdoor stadiums (it's less than a point). But the real reason to be cautious is because this is already baked into the lines. It's not like you have a secret recipe here. Everyone knows about it. You need statistical justification to take over/unders. Betting non-division dome overs is not a winning strategy.

I had a friend a few years back that used to blindly bet the under whenever the starting QB's for both teams were black. His logic was that they were more athletic than white QB's and were more likely to rush/scramble. Since rushing results in lower scoring than passing, he thought he had found a goldmine.

He hadn't.

TomandJerry · Oct 11, 2014

I think teams with good OL and bad DL has the best change to hit OVER. With that said, none of those 3 team would go OVER this week.

rowdyroddy · Oct 11, 2014

I agree- its a vice of mine.
hate dome unders though,....

thesandman1 · Oct 12, 2014

Haven't lost two weeks in a row, so I'm looking for at least a 2-1 day. Just three plays today and all are early games.

PLAY GREEN BAY/MIAMI OVER 49
PLAY CAROLINA/CINC. OVER 43.5
PLAY BALTIMORE/TAMPA BAY OVER 43.5

Last Week: 1-3

Week One: 0-4
Weeks Two thru Five: 11-8

All Picks: 11-12

thesandman1 · Oct 12, 2014

Usually the line is higher closer to game time than the total I use late Saturday night and it's best to play these sooner rather than closer to kickoff. Today, the opposite happened on the Green Bay/Miami total, which dropped a full two and a half points from 49 to 46.5 and I don't know why, unless it's due to rain. It's up to you if you want to play the OVER on this game. One play, the Baltimore/Tampa total is a point higher this morning, from 43.5 to 44.5. As always, for record keeping, I use the total when I posted these.

thesandman1 · Oct 12, 2014

It Was A Great Week

I hope you guys didn't give up on me because of last weeks 1-3. I've said these get better the later we get into the season. There were a couple of posts here that this weeks games did not look like they would go OVER. Hopefully, that didn't scare many of you away because all three did go OVER. A PERFECT 3-0 WEEK. Anyone who lost on Week One and stayed got your losses back and are even a little ahead.

Nothing until next Sunday. Should be a good day with no less than six Inter Conference games.

SUMMARY:
This Week: 3-0

Week One: 0-4
Weeks Two thru Six: 14-8

All Picks: 14-12

thesandman1 · Oct 13, 2014

I know it's not classy asking if anyone has followed my plays, but I have been wondering if you guys have given up on my OVER plays after going just 1-3 a week ago since I didn't hear if anyone followed yesterday when I finally had a perfect day going 3-0. To make this post a little worth while, here is some info on tonights game.

A BONUS PLAY FOR MONDAY NIGHT

When the 49ers can run, they win. The first three games, going 1-2, they rushed for only 112 ypg, for 4.2 yards per carry. The last two games, winning both, they rushed for 194 ypg. for 4.7 yards per carry. All Pro LT Joe Staley said they are running better because the offensive line is become more cohesive now that they have been together longer.

Here is the really good part. St. Louis ranks 29th in rushing defense, giving up 152 yards per game. The 49ers may not blow out anyone running the ball, but they should not have any trouble covering the small line tonight. FWIW, I just played the Niners -3, -120 at bookmaker. 5 Dimes and Bookmaker at still at -3. Some other places have already popped up to -3.5.

bigred36t · Oct 13, 2014

I follow the inter-conference system since last year, Was aware this system through Vegas Insider. This year through VI there is another system which is simple. Whoever plays Thursday night game take them on the over the following week regardless the venue. Its hitting 85% since last year. So when a game is on both IC system and the Thursday nite system I double up. Hahaa this week its was GB-Miami on both so it hit easily. Both systems are good even though there might be a hit and miss here and there. Thats why its called gambling in the end we will come out with plus money.@)

1sob · Oct 13, 2014

nice job this week
like biged said its gambling so u cant in them all

thesandman1 · Oct 19, 2014

Overs went 3-0 last week

Week Six my Inter Conference plays swept going 3-0. I even posted a Bonus Play on the Niners, which also won but isn't part of my record. There couldn't be a better time for a full slate of Inter Conference OVER plays for Week Seven. There are 6 Inter Conference OVER plays this weekend. Four games are Sunday morning, one game is Sunday afternoon and the Sunday night game is also a play. Anyone who kept playing my OVERS after the week one disaster, are finally a little bit ahead.

If you haven't read all the posts from last week, take a look at Post #97. bigred36t posted that most teams playing on Thursday night, go OVER the following week and if they are part of an Inter Conference game, they go OVER 80% of the time. I went back to week one to see how these teams did. Not a big sample, but so far this year for all games played thru Oct 13th, 5 teams from Thursday night, played as part of an Inter Conference game the following week and 4 of those 5 games (80%) did go OVER. For the other 5 teams from Thursday, which did not play in an Inter Conference game the following week, 3 of the 5 teams, still went OVER. Take a look at bigred's post to see how he plays these.

HERE ARE THE INTER CONFERENCE OVER PLAYS FOR WEEK SEVEN. ALL TOTALS ARE CURRENT FROM BOOKMAKER.

PLAY TENNESSEE/WASHINGTON OVER 45.5
PLAY MIAMI/CHICAGO OVER 48
PLAY ATLANTA/BALTIMORE OVER 50

PLAY MINNESOTA/BUFFALO OVER 43
PLAY ARIZONA/OAKLAND OVER 45
PLAY 49ERS/DENVER OVER 49.5.

ALSO INDIANA AND HOUSTON WERE THE TWO TEAMS THAT PLAYED A WEEK AGO THURSDAY. THEY ARE PLAYING SUNDAY
BUT NOT IN INTER CONFERENCE GAMES.

SUMMARY:
Last Week: 3-0

Week One: 0-4
Weeks Two thru Six: 14-8

All Picks: 14-12

bigred36t · Oct 19, 2014

Sorry Posted this THURSDAY NIGHT TOTAL SYSTEM wrong.
The system is as follows: Find out who played at home on Thursday then Play ONLY the HOME team the following week on the OVER.(regardless if they are Home or Away)
After reading this thread again I realized my mistake. Sorry Guys!!So-Sorry-935&