BACK AGAIN-- My Inter Conference OVERS Posted Here Last Year Hit at 80%

[thesandman1]

My thread, last year, was called "Bad Plays Win In the NFL" and I posted both the Inter-Conference OVERS and the Bad NFL Plays that Win in this thread. It's too early to post any Bad Plays, so for now I"m just posting the OVERS. These OVERS were winners, going 12-3 in my thread.

Finally, this season is here and I will be posting these total plays here again. Last year I didn't start posting these Inter Conference plays until week 9, after I felt certain they were golden. For now, I have three plays for Sunday; however, I really don't have a feeling how they will do the first week of the season, so go lightly for now. All lines are what I played them at from Bookmaker Saturday night.

Jacksonville/Philly OVER 52
Buffalo/Chicago OVER 47.5
Washington/Houston OVER 44.5

Good Luck Everyone

 

[foreplayone]

You did very good last year and I tailed , did very good, THANKS!!!

 

[Jbarsk82001]

Good luck sandman

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

Like the over much in the Oiler/Politically Correct Redman encounter...my #'s say 54...cheers

 

[hitman009]

Thank you and good luck this year, hope it can go around 70+ is good enough.

 

[TheShotDoctor]

Yep...These Are Great Every Season!
No Exact Stats/Record, but I Have Played OVER In Every Inter Conference Game The Last 3 Years & They Have Been + $$$!


Good Luck!
---SD---

 

[palehose1]

Yes , I do recall these being worth looking at BOL and Thanks.

 

[Bruins4Life]

Pinnacle has Phil over 51. Good luck.

 

[varkeyboy]

Sounds like a plan to me!

 

[Green17]

I had temporarily forgotten how good these had been until your thread reminded me.
Thanks so much for bringing them back to the Rx this season.
GL.

 

[Travex]

Loved these last year, thanks for posting them again. I'm skipping Jax/Philly though. Don't think the Jaguars score enough to put it that high.

 

[rolltide]

last year was a simple one year anomaly with inter-conference overs. i was posting that stuff week 3 and 4 but was reluctant to play them as there was absolutely no history to show it would continue. if you're expecting to blindly bet the again with 75% + you'll be real disappointed

before 2013:

not C and H and season < 2013

SU:	862-583-3 (3.07, 59.7%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	723-678-47 (0.56, 51.6%)	avg line: -2.5	+6: 987-427-34 (69.8%)	-6: 481-945-22 (33.7%)	+10: 1132-292-24 (79.5%)	-10: 317-1100-31 (22.4%)
O/U:	729-704-15 (1.40, 50.9%)	avg total: 41.0

and then 2013:

not C and H and season = 2013

SU:	36-29-0 (1.14, 55.4%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	29-32-4 (-1.29, 47.5%)	avg line: -2.4	+6: 44-21-0 (67.7%)	-6: 19-46-0 (29.2%)	+10: 50-14-1 (78.1%)	-10: 13-52-0 (20.0%)
O/U:	49-15-1 (6.04, 76.6%)	avg total: 45.3

 

[themailman59]

phi and jax at 49 now.

 

[Steiner69eR]

I was waiting for Roll to mention that last year was an outlier.

 

[thesandman1]

Thanks for all the comments and support. I appreciate all of them. Rolltide does make a point altough my feeling is some of the rule changes to protect players, has resulted in more defensive penalties keeping drives alive. To be realistic, don't expect to hit anywhere near 80% again; however, over 60% would still be a good payday and I can't see these changing from winners to losers in just one year.

I do have a question for Rolltide. I was also looking at all your info and are you stats saying playing dogs in 6 and 10 point teasers hit at 68 and 78 percent. I assume I'm missing something because you still have to play the right dogs, but if I'm wrong, then you found another gold mine.

Bottom line, I hope we hit at least 2 of the 3 to show we are still on the right track, although I don't like the way two of these of dropped, unless they were set too high to begin with because of all the over winners last year.

 

[thesandman1]

Not the start we were all looking for, although it did feel good watching the Jax fumble late, which turned into a Philly TD and kept us from going 0-3. No way I thought we would see another TD in that game with under two minutes left. There is one play for tonight and hopefully it will go OVER, making this first week a spilt, losing only the juice.

TONIGHTS PLAY

San Diego/Arizona OVER 47

I hope you went lightly on these plays yesterday and you should do the same with this play until we know more about how the early weeks play out.

 

[theMadMan]

Will keep the faith...Thanks for the info

 

[Deadbeats]

Didn't Jax and Phil end up at 51?

 

[rolltide]

Thanks for all the comments and support. I appreciate all of them. Rolltide does make a point altough my feeling is some of the rule changes to protect players, has resulted in more defensive penalties keeping drives alive. To be realistic, don't expect to hit anywhere near 80% again; however, over 60% would still be a good payday and I can't see these changing from winners to losers in just one year.

I do have a question for Rolltide. I was also looking at all your info and are you stats saying playing dogs in 6 and 10 point teasers hit at 68 and 78 percent. I assume I'm missing something because you still have to play the right dogs, but if I'm wrong, then you found another gold mine.

Bottom line, I hope we hit at least 2 of the 3 to show we are still on the right track, although I don't like the way two of these of dropped, unless they were set too high to begin with because of all the over winners last year.

1) yes but the totals are rising with it. you have 20+ years avg 41 o/u then last year 45+

2) i should have posted the 6/10 teasers for the totals and it would have made more sense but essentially it is saying that in interconference games the home team has covered a 6-point teaser 70% of time and a 10-point teaser 80% of the time. so if you put the home team in a 10-point teaser that would have come in, ATS, 8 out of 10 times (and 3-0 yesterday with Bears +3.5, Phi pk, Hou +7). you see how the ATS and 6/10 for sides marginally changed vs history? That is what will happen to the totals this year.

but glad you got the fumble recovery but over 52 still didn't win so was 0-3. GL with Diego over

 

[THEPUNISHER]

Didn't Jax and Phil end up at 51?

yeah it did so he went 0-3.... not very good, especially as much as he's been hyping up his 80% last season... SMH hno: