Wed. 2-1, +100
Explain the chart above please.
Sorry I did not get a chance to respond earlier.
Below is a simple tally from the service play forums. The theory is that when the service play guys are in love with a game it is usually too good to be true. I came up with 3 simple criteria in order to back track the data and see if the theory would hold up over time. They are:
1. Service play tally must have a minimum of 5 difference (see the Seattle/Toronto game and the difference is only 4, so not an official play).
2. Must be a minimum of a 2:1 ratio. A tally of 12-7 is more than 5 but not a 2:1 ratio so ignore.
3. No more than 5 on the side of the fade. 14-7 is ignored because too many touts on the side I want to play.
Nothing scientific but the general theory is:
Vegas does not give money away very easily. If it seems to good to be true it usually is. Touts are in the business of making a SELL and one way is to post impressive win/loss records. Sounds so much better when they post 100-60 record, plus 20 units rather than 85-75, plus 25 units. Especially in a ML game like bases, not an ATS game. They want to win for you sure, but their first priority is making a sell. People who don't cap and buy picks see the pretty fav and are happy. If it loses they say "well so and so should have won that game", but if they give out a 140 dog and it loses 9-3...they say what the hell was that guy thinking taking that ugly ass team. Idiot gamblers are what feed these guys. If gamblers were more intelligent these guys would be forced to be so as well.
Reading the info below: Very simply, the number next to the team is how many touts have chosen that team. When it is 7-1 on SF like tonight, the play is Colorado. The record is better than 50% this season and 80% of the plays are dogs. It should not be this simple or this easy but 300 games of evidence shows that it is. I have held back thinking maybe I missed the boat on this and it would even out or go the other way and I would be screwed, but the plays continue to plug along and win. There have been hot weeks by the service play guys but the consistency is poor at best.
Feel free to use the info as you choose. If you want to jump on with the touts, be my guest, but I simply wanted to educate and help out fellow gamblers with additional tools. This kept me off of SF tonight and I cashed with Detroit as well. I left Atlanta alone as they had a pitching change, but would have played them too.
The results for Wed. were 2-1, +100. Seattle and Florida were two nice dogs that also came in but missed the tally by 1 play, both were 5-1 and I was looking for 6-1.
Seattle- 1
at Toronto- 5 12:37 PM
O-
U-
Tampa Bay- 1
at LA Angels - 2 3:35 PM
O-
U-2
Baltimore-
at Boston- 2 7:05 PM
O-
U-
Minnesota-6
at Cleveland-6 7:05 PM
O-
U-
Chicago Sox-9
at Detroit-4 7:05 PM
O-2
U-
Washington-2
at Pittsburgh-1 7:05 PM
O-
U-3
St. Louis- 3
at Cincinnati- 4 7:10 PM
O-
U-
Arizona-6
at NY Mets-6 7:10 PM
O-
U-1
Philadelphia-5
at Florida-1 7:10 PM
O-3
U-2
Atlanta- 1
at Chicago Cubs-10 8:05 PM
O-2
U-1
Milwaukee- 4
at Houston- 4 8:05 PM
O-1
U-2
Texas-6
at Kansas City-5 8:10 PM
O-1
U-1
San Francisco-7
at Colorado-1 9:05 PM
O-
U-
NY Yankees-3
at Oakland-5 10:05 PM
O-
U-1
LA Dodgers- 1
at San Diego-2 10:05 PM
O-
U-2
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