AZ: Fade the Consensus Week 11

[4SHO]

I want to see if i'm on the same page. SEA for tonight.

 

[rolltide]

cubs, cws, bosox, sd, tor would qualify

 

[4SHO]

So wuts it tonight? ODDz

 

[bogingwun]

Hey Wizard, do you post a Joe Q Public opposite play each day? Thanks.

 

[bogingwun]

Yes, I understand its about the money not just about a pick, but why would you think the most money is going to Texas game today?

Like Bigbookie today has the most money on the Sox. I would think there are other game with heavier money action than the Texas/KC game today.

Thanks.

 

[candylicker]

I get yeah wiz, I wish I knew i place where i could get where the money was going. are these sited free or do you have tp pay for them. thanks again for your insight

 

[4SHO]

Is there any others than sportsbook and insights?

 

[bogingwun]

Thanks for the explanation. Do you post plays here daily?

 

[ArizonaBound]

bogingwun

It's not about Joe Q Public.
If I teach anyone anything here, it's about fading MONEY......
Does anyone get it????????

I can only speak for myself but I think your message is very clear. Despite what you seem to insinuate, we can understand the simple strategy of fading money. It is great to see that it works for you and the guys here are obviously starving for your attention and plays, but I am offering another strategy that seems to be working very well too. You state yourself that 57% is the goal. Well, after nearly 300 fade the consensus plays the results are equivalent or better than the 57% we all so desire.
The updated record if following this simple strategy is:
149W
135 L
+$3900

Based on -110 the success rate is at 59%. Every play can be verified and confirmed if one is willing to invest a little time (which I have done). I commend you on your 67% success rate but why not share the "documented proof" so that everyone can see that your strategy of fading the MONEY is successful over the long haul. I 100% believe that it works but why not share the plays with everyone each day so that the plays can be tracked and verified? Instead you choose to tease and play around with people and insult them as if they don't understand what "fading the money" is. Of course people understand what it means, they are just looking for someone to share the info with them. What is the harm in that? If you have 20 years of experience doing this why would you not want to share on an open forum? Is there something to hide? Do you want paid for your time/service? Whatever it is just let these guys know so they can stop bugging you for info and you can stop treating them like children by giving the candy and then taking away. Seems to me there must be some motive.

AZ

 

[ArizonaBound]

Tuesday fade the consensus results: 3w-2l +$220

Baltimore wins as a big dog and 2 other dogs cash. 2 even money losses so no harm:

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[ArizonaBound]

Seattle- 1
at Toronto- 5 12:37 PM
O-
U-

Tampa Bay- 1
at LA Angels - 2 3:35 PM
O-
U-2

Baltimore-
at Boston- 2 7:05 PM
O-
U-

Minnesota-6
at Cleveland-6 7:05 PM
O-
U-

Chicago Sox-9
at Detroit-4 7:05 PM
O-2
U-

Washington-2
at Pittsburgh-1 7:05 PM
O-
U-3

St. Louis- 3
at Cincinnati- 4 7:10 PM
O-
U-

Arizona-6
at NY Mets-6 7:10 PM
O-
U-1

Philadelphia-5
at Florida-1 7:10 PM
O-3
U-2

Atlanta- 1
at Chicago Cubs-10 8:05 PM
O-2
U-1


Milwaukee- 4
at Houston- 4 8:05 PM
O-1
U-2


Texas-6
at Kansas City-5 8:10 PM
O-1
U-1

San Francisco-7
at Colorado-1 9:05 PM
O-
U-

NY Yankees-3
at Oakland-5 10:05 PM
O-
U-1

LA Dodgers- 1
at San Diego-2 10:05 PM
O-
U-2

 

[bogingwun]

Anything today Wiz?

 

[kreitmaster]

Fading the Giants is very tempting especially since much of the public is on them and yet the line has dropped.

 

[TigerquotABArefquotDenoy]

Explain the chart above please.

 

[2dollarRazzplayer]

I was going to sign up for sportsinsights and use that type of method Wiz, but again... they show you HOW MANY bets are on a certain side...not HOW MUCH MONEY is on a certain side.

You've said you think the money is more important than the picks, and I agree 100% but I have absolutely no idea where to find out how much money is on one side.

Sure you can look for line shifts etc to see where the money is and then match it up with the sites you use for picks... but this requires a fair amount of research.

As far as I know, no sites post how much cash is on each side of the game but I could be wrong.

 

[PC16]

damn c

 

[4SHO]

WIZ.. whos the FADE for tonight?

 

[2dollarRazzplayer]

Would love to know these sites that show the actual amount of money being placed on each side not the amount of wagers. I know of several that say the wager amount but none like you described.

Am I allowed to post my email address here? If I do will you let me know those sites?

 

[WeezyF+]

home boy said several times he wasn't posting links out of respect for the rx and yall still won't give it up???

research = search.....then search again...did yall not do this in school?

 

[ArizonaBound]

Wed. 2-1, +100

Explain the chart above please.

Sorry I did not get a chance to respond earlier.
Below is a simple tally from the service play forums. The theory is that when the service play guys are in love with a game it is usually too good to be true. I came up with 3 simple criteria in order to back track the data and see if the theory would hold up over time. They are:

1. Service play tally must have a minimum of 5 difference (see the Seattle/Toronto game and the difference is only 4, so not an official play).

2. Must be a minimum of a 2:1 ratio. A tally of 12-7 is more than 5 but not a 2:1 ratio so ignore.

3. No more than 5 on the side of the fade. 14-7 is ignored because too many touts on the side I want to play.

Nothing scientific but the general theory is:

Vegas does not give money away very easily. If it seems to good to be true it usually is. Touts are in the business of making a SELL and one way is to post impressive win/loss records. Sounds so much better when they post 100-60 record, plus 20 units rather than 85-75, plus 25 units. Especially in a ML game like bases, not an ATS game. They want to win for you sure, but their first priority is making a sell. People who don't cap and buy picks see the pretty fav and are happy. If it loses they say "well so and so should have won that game", but if they give out a 140 dog and it loses 9-3...they say what the hell was that guy thinking taking that ugly ass team. Idiot gamblers are what feed these guys. If gamblers were more intelligent these guys would be forced to be so as well.

Reading the info below: Very simply, the number next to the team is how many touts have chosen that team. When it is 7-1 on SF like tonight, the play is Colorado. The record is better than 50% this season and 80% of the plays are dogs. It should not be this simple or this easy but 300 games of evidence shows that it is. I have held back thinking maybe I missed the boat on this and it would even out or go the other way and I would be screwed, but the plays continue to plug along and win. There have been hot weeks by the service play guys but the consistency is poor at best.
Feel free to use the info as you choose. If you want to jump on with the touts, be my guest, but I simply wanted to educate and help out fellow gamblers with additional tools. This kept me off of SF tonight and I cashed with Detroit as well. I left Atlanta alone as they had a pitching change, but would have played them too.
The results for Wed. were 2-1, +100. Seattle and Florida were two nice dogs that also came in but missed the tally by 1 play, both were 5-1 and I was looking for 6-1.

Seattle- 1
at Toronto- 5 12:37 PM
O-
U-

Tampa Bay- 1
at LA Angels - 2 3:35 PM
O-
U-2

Baltimore-
at Boston- 2 7:05 PM
O-
U-

Minnesota-6
at Cleveland-6 7:05 PM
O-
U-

Chicago Sox-9
at Detroit-4 7:05 PM
O-2
U-

Washington-2
at Pittsburgh-1 7:05 PM
O-
U-3

St. Louis- 3
at Cincinnati- 4 7:10 PM
O-
U-

Arizona-6
at NY Mets-6 7:10 PM
O-
U-1

Philadelphia-5
at Florida-1 7:10 PM
O-3
U-2

Atlanta- 1
at Chicago Cubs-10 8:05 PM
O-2
U-1


Milwaukee- 4
at Houston- 4 8:05 PM
O-1
U-2


Texas-6
at Kansas City-5 8:10 PM
O-1
U-1

San Francisco-7
at Colorado-1 9:05 PM
O-
U-

NY Yankees-3
at Oakland-5 10:05 PM
O-
U-1

LA Dodgers- 1
at San Diego-2 10:05 PM
O-
U-2
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