Assuming MLB Keeps Steroids Under Control, Do You Think You'll See The Career OR Single Season Home Run Record Broken In Your Lifetime?

[Doug]

Cabrera is on pace compared to some similar studs at the same age
http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp_bat.cgi?I=cabremi01:Miguel%20Cabrera&st=age&compage=29&age=29

He's on pace with guys that failed to obtain the record. This will require the perfect storm of a power hitter with a long career starting at a young age and remaining injury free with a great hitter behind him so he can't just be walked....it will happen someday.

 

[HarryCaray]

what player listed above do these numbers/records go to??? I bob loblawed out some of the names to eliminate clues...

• Became the quickest MLB player to hit 100 home runs (376 Games); later passed by blah blah (325 games)
• Became the quickest MLB player to hit 200 home runs (706 Games); later passed by blah blah (658 games)
• Became the quickest MLB player to hit 300 home runs (1,087 Games)
• Most home runs in first 3 seasons, 114, (tied with blah blah)
• Most home runs in first 4 seasons, 168
• Most home runs in first 5 seasons, 215
• Most home runs in first 6 seasons, 257
• Most home runs in first 7 seasons, 294
• Most home runs in first 8 seasons, 329

Vlad?

 

[RupertPupkin]

I know Ryan Howard was first to hit 100 , I wouldhave to look up the rest .... ( he might be in few other slots too though )

 

[motowner]

neither will be broken without roids

 

[HacheMan]

neither will be broken without roids

This is my opinion as well

 

[RupertPupkin]

He's on pace with guys that failed to obtain the record. This will require the perfect storm of a power hitter with a long career starting at a young age and remaining injury free with a great hitter behind him so he can't just be walked....it will happen someday.

This is true, however AARon is on that list I posted, but he was ahead of MIggys current pace ... But I did a little stay research ( what I love ) and broke down Miggys career into 4 sequences, his 1st 3 years in league, 2nd 3 , 3rd 3 , and last 1.5 ...and it shows Miggys power number are in a steady climb upwards , meaning he might still be behind the prime of his power swing ...

1st 3 2nd 3 3rd 3 last1.5 HRs 78 97 102 68 Games 405 475 471 240 g/hr 5.19 4.89 4.61 3.52 <colgroup><col span="5"></colgroup><tbody> </tbody>

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</tbody>

abs	1530	1780	1731	934
HRs	78	97	102	68
ab/per HR	19.6	18.4	17.0	13.7

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Numbers don't lie and in the 2nd half of his career , its taking less ABS and Less games to hit Home runs ... And considering hes got one of the best set of eyes in the game, if he churns out 40+ for the next 5 years ... which is more than reasonable , he will be sittting at 550 area , around age 35 .. then its up to him ( assuming he stays healthy )

Food for thought ... ( then again he might be older than 30 right now too ...only time will tell )

 

[Doug]

He's still far from a favorite to get there, but the best shot to get there first. I'd want at least 10-1 to make that bet, more like 20-1 and on credit.

 

[RupertPupkin]

I did the same thing for AROD, it looks like his Homerun days are well behind him

arod	18-21	23-25	26-28	29-31	32-34	35-36
HRs	64	135	140	137	95	34
Games	352	439	478	474	399	221
g/hr	5.50	3.25	3.41	3.46	4.20	6.50
abs	1384	1688	1832	1760	1476	836
HRs	64	135	140	137	95	34
ab/per HR	21.63	12.50	13.09	12.85	15.54	24.59

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[Doug]

neither will be broken without roids

I can see longer careers in the future, so you might have guys playing 25 seasons more frequently, but you'd still need that perfect storm of events even if you play from age 18 to 45.

 

[RupertPupkin]

Im sure you would , Ill humor you , You got +10/1 on NO with me $10 small to win a $100 ... on credit, when he retires, he me up ( we've been on this forum for 10+ years and not going anywhere, I trust you on credit ... PEace. ( if he ties the record, you PAY me double ....)

 

[RupertPupkin]

and Final King Albert ... ( the 3 with a shot ...)
Pujols has declined the last 3.5 years ... taking 3 more ABs to get a HOmer and a half game ( compared to his first 9 years )

Pujols	1st 3	2nd 3	3rd 3	last 3.5
HRs	114	136	116	122
Games	475	458	466	539
g/hr	4.17	3.37	4.02	4.42
abs	1771	1718	1657	2086
HRs	114	136	116	122
ab/per HR	15.5	12.6	14.3	17.1

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[Chi_Archie]

Vlad?

no sorry

 

[Chi_Archie]

I know Ryan Howard was first to hit 100 , I wouldhave to look up the rest .... ( he might be in few other slots too though )

yeah pretty sure that Ryan Howard was one of the names I deleted. Fastest to 100

but not the mystery man that holds other those other records I copy and listed

 

[Doug]

Im sure you would , Ill humor you , You got +10/1 on NO with me $10 small to win a $100 ... on credit, when he retires, he me up ( we've been on this forum for 10+ years and not going anywhere, I trust you on credit ... PEace. ( if he ties the record, you PAY me double ....)

no bets for me on this stuff .

 

[Doug]

Im sure you would , Ill humor you , You got +10/1 on NO with me $10 small to win a $100 ... on credit, when he retires, he me up ( we've been on this forum for 10+ years and not going anywhere, I trust you on credit ... PEace. ( if he ties the record, you PAY me double ....)

no bets for me on this stuff .

 

[Doug]

It won't be easy to break this record unless some things change, like smaller parks, livelier ball, aluminium bats, etc.

A guy hitting 30 hr's for 25 consecutive seasons would fail to break the record.

I can see the hits record going down with an young Ichiro kind of guy.

 

[RenoChazz]

single season maybe not, but life time yes. People are living longer with every generation. When we're old guys will be playing a lot longer and will have more time to get there.

 

[Chi_Archie]

what player listed above do these numbers/records go to??? I bob loblawed out some of the names to eliminate clues...

• Became the quickest MLB player to hit 100 home runs (376 Games); later passed by blah blah (325 games)
• Became the quickest MLB player to hit 200 home runs (706 Games); later passed by blah blah (658 games)
• Became the quickest MLB player to hit 300 home runs (1,087 Games)
• Most home runs in first 3 seasons, 114, (tied with blah blah)
• Most home runs in first 4 seasons, 168
• Most home runs in first 5 seasons, 215
• Most home runs in first 6 seasons, 257
• Most home runs in first 7 seasons, 294
• Most home runs in first 8 seasons, 329

anyone else care to guess who this player is?

 

[Shub]

anyone else care to guess who this player is?

albert pujols

 

[Shub]

chris Davis will be the first to break 61 without roids