Anybody have a Chance to beat The Heat ??

[PatsFan1283]

dont u think it will get much higher though? all likelyhood to be down 0-2 and you can get +1000 puff_>>

-murph

If I have an opinion I never try to "time" it Murph.

I just bet what I think is value and I think the Celts have a better chance 21% chance to win this series. To gauge which games they win/lose when making bets like this isn't something I try to do. I mean any underdog you bet is an underdog to lose the first two games.

I liked OKC +200 vs SA last year more than any playoff bet I ever liked, I could've got +600 had I waited until after game 2 but when you think a team is value you don't know when that value is going to showup.

What if C's steal 1 of the next 2, then the ship has likely sailed.

 

[vitterd]

If I have an opinion I never try to "time" it Murph.

I just bet what I think is value and I think the Celts have a better chance 21% chance to win this series. To gauge which games they win/lose when making bets like this isn't something I try to do. I mean any underdog you bet is an underdog to lose the first two games.

I liked OKC +200 vs SA last year more than any playoff bet I ever liked, I could've got +600 had I waited until after game 2 but when you think a team is value you don't know when that value is going to showup.

What if C's steal 1 of the next 2, then the ship has likely sailed.

100 to win 7500 on milw for the series. I figure....ive blown a hundred on dumber shit.

 

[KingofNicotine]

Anyone watching the Celtics game? I had Boston 1st quarter and holy crap Greene hit a 3 with less than a second to go.

 

[PatsFan1283]

100 to win 7500 on milw for the series. I figure....ive blown a hundred on dumber shit.

I'd say crazier things have happened but I'm not sure anything crazier than that has ever happened.

Unless you count willie99 being right about a prediction.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Anyone watching the Celtics game? I had Boston 1st quarter and holy crap Greene hit a 3 with less than a second to go.

King there is a thread in the bball forum, in game if you wanna check it out. Wouldn't the 1st Q bet have won even w/o JGreen 3 or was it ML?

 

[KingofNicotine]

No, if Greene didn't hit that 3 it would've been a push. Yeah, it was the moneyline.

 

[oldmanTED]

The only way the Heat don't win the Championship is if they have an injury to any of their players. No other team can play with them. Particularly on defense.

 

[KingofNicotine]

What about OKC or Spurs?

 

[PatsFan1283]

What about OKC or Spurs?

Spurs no, but obviously OKC can. There aren't too many teams in NBA history OKC couldn't play with. They have 2 future hall of famers and 1 of the best scorers to ever play the game.

 

[oldmanTED]

What about OKC or Spurs?

The Heat embarrased the Thunder when they last played them and the Spurs don't have the defense any longer to stop the Heat!

 

[PatsFan1283]

The Heat embarrased the Thunder when they last played them and the Spurs don't have the defense any longer to stop the Heat!

You offering a price on Thunder vs Heat? Must be pretty high since they have NO CHANCE!

 

[oldmanTED]

You offering a price on Thunder vs Heat? Must be pretty high since they have NO CHANCE!

I don't book! If they should meet in the Finals, I'll be all over the Heat on the ML for the series and every game they play. Getting there is injury dependent as I stated above.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I don't book! If they should meet in the Finals, I'll be all over the Heat on the ML for the series and every game they play. Getting there is injury dependent as I stated above.

Why don't you just bet the Heat now? if they play in the finals everyone is just going to think exactly what you are thinking. It's the Heat, not like they won't be big favs.

 

[oldmanTED]

Why don't you just bet the Heat now? if they play in the finals everyone is just going to think exactly what you are thinking. It's the Heat, not like they won't be big favs.

I don't bet futures at minus money not knowing if there will be injuries. Remember last year. Chicago lost Derrick Rose and their chances ended. If both the Heat and the Thunder reach the Finals like they did last year, I'll be able to get just about the same price as is currently being offered and at that point at least know the health of both teams. Patience pays off!

 

[PatsFan1283]

I don't bet futures at minus money not knowing if there will be injuries. Remember last year. Chicago lost Derrick Rose and their chances ended. If both the Heat and the Thunder reach the Finals like they did last year, I'll be able to get just about the same price as is currently being offered and at that point at least know the health of both teams. Patience pays off!

Nah, you won't.

That actually makes no sense, not trying to be rude but it is flawed.

If the Heat play the Thunder in the finals they will not be the same price to win the title as they are right now.

 

[oldmanTED]

Nah, you won't.

That actually makes no sense, not trying to be rude but it is flawed.

If the Heat play the Thunder in the finals they will not be the same price to win the title as they are right now.

If both teams show well in the playoffs and reach the Finals, the price on the Heat will be around -300. I will be all over any price regardless. You think that doesn't make sense. Wrong! What doesn't make sense is betting a minus future now not knowing whether players will be healthy or injured by the time June arrives.

 

[PatsFan1283]

If both teams show well in the playoffs and reach the Finals, the price on the Heat will be around -300. I will be all over any price regardless. You think that doesn't make sense. Wrong! What doesn't make sense is betting a minus future now not knowing whether players will be healthy or injured by the time June arrives.

No OMT you said it would be around the same price as it is right now. You are right it would probably be around -300, it is -150 right now. This is not the same price. You do follow that I assume.

 

[oldmanTED]

No OMT you said it would be around the same price as it is right now. You are right it would probably be around -300, it is -150 right now. This is not the same price. You do follow that I assume.

Of course I do! You are missing the main point. Don't make a future play at a minus moneyline two months in advance of a possible match-up when injuries can change the whole complexion of the playoffs. Wait until they actually meet and if you believe your team will win easily, which I do should they meet the Thunder, the higher price is of no consequence.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Of course I do! You are missing the main point. Don't make a future play at a minus moneyline two months in advance of a possible match-up when injuries can change the whole complexion of the playoffs. Wait until they actually meet and if you believe your team will win easily, which I do should they meet the Thunder, the higher price is of no consequence.

What if LJ gets hurt game 1?

Juice always has consequence.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Of course I do! You are missing the main point. Don't make a future play at a minus moneyline two months in advance of a possible match-up when injuries can change the whole complexion of the playoffs. Wait until they actually meet and if you believe your team will win easily, which I do should they meet the Thunder, the higher price is of no consequence.

I think you are missing the point but it is fine. Your "it will be around the same price" statement was wrong, would you agree with that?

If you think the difference between -150 and -300 is of no consequence I guess that is an opinion. It is one I wouldn't agree with but I wouldn't tell you how to bet obviously, was just making a suggestion in regards to value.