Mocho Macho Man, now that nobody else likes him
this strategy worked well for me with Hanzel a few years back
my best horse hit ever was a tri-box for the Belmont.
a 4 horse box when Smarty Jones was going for the triple crown. even though the mega chalk finished 2nd, the tri-box paid me like $ 1,700
evidently, the entire world had SJ wheeled or at the top of the ticket
this strategy worked well for me with Hanzel a few years back
my best horse hit ever was a tri-box for the Belmont.
a 4 horse box when Smarty Jones was going for the triple crown. even though the mega chalk finished 2nd, the tri-box paid me like $ 1,700
evidently, the entire world had SJ wheeled or at the top of the ticket
Another Longshot is Brillant Speed LVRJ horse Racing writer Richard Eng likes him to win
http://www.lvrj.com/sports/brilliant-speed-to-be-belmont-s-brightest-light-123603599.html
http://www.lvrj.com/sports/brilliant-speed-to-be-belmont-s-brightest-light-123603599.html
Tough race to really get a handle on. You basically have a field with a bunch of closers vs one speed horse Shackleford. I think a general myth with this race is just because it's a mile and a half, it favors the closers. But in reality, history says that the Belmont favors horses with enough speed to remain close to the lead. The first horse that comes to mind is Shackleford since he is the only speed in the field. He is probably capable of jumping out to as big of a lead as he likes. I think this horse has the heart to win this. But two problems I have with him is his jockey Castonon has never ridden a race on this track. So it could be a bit of a disadvantage with these other experienced jockeys. And the other problem is he backed up in the Derby and barely made the distance it in the Preakness. And I'm not sure "Forestry" horses like to go a mile and a half. But the one reason I like him is because he set a pretty brisk pace in the Preakness. I thought he was dead after setting a 46. and change pace. And at the top of the stretch most thought he was going to be swallowed up by the field. But like I said, this horse has a lot of heart. If he sets something like a .48 pace in this race at his leisure, he still could be very dangerous..The closers better hope that somebody goes out there with him to keep an honest pace. But keep in mind that Belmont is a speed favoring track.
Here's what I think coud happen today. I think it's going to be a jockeys race. Most all of these horses are nice closers. And Animal Kingdom is a monster. If the grueling meet hasn't worn him down, he'll be coming like a bat out of hell in the stretch. So let's just assume he's the best closer here. I think maybe the biggest move of this race by the trainer was made with Mucho Macho Man. Right now this is the horse that i think will be in the money either first or second. First, this horse has been having some serious problems losing his shoes for the last couple of races. And trainer Kelly has gone to another blacksmith for this race, and he says he guarantees this time Mucho Macho won't be losing shoes during a race. I also like the move he made with a rider change putting Ramon Dominguez on him. Ramon is one of the most agressive riders in the country. And I have a feeling that with Macho Man breaking out of the 10 hole, he's going to go out fast and squeeze Shackleford way outside to make his trip a little tougher. It's just a feeling, but even though Ramon is considered a great rider, he's also been known to play a little dirty during a race. Plus Macho Man has never gone two races in a row outside of the money. So I'm betting he'll be there. Plus I really like the .59b bullet work he's put in since the Preakness. The horse still appears very fit.
I also think Ruler on Ice wearing blinkers to speed him up could give Shack a bit of a tussle early on. So I'm gambling that Shack will eventually tire out. But I'm going to look at the weather before making my final decision on this horse. Nehro is the horse that I'm having difficulty with. I think Steve Assmussen is the most underrated trainer in the country. So it bothers me to leave out a well rested horse like this. Right now the only knock I have on him is he simply hasn't been able to get it done against these top Graded horses...yet. And I believe he'll be bet down too much for this race with the public making a bigger deal than they should out of his extra rest coming in. Another horse I like to be running in the stretch to either win or pick up the pieces is Master Of Hounds. But this is where it could be a jockeys race because Santiva and Brilliant speed are the same type of horses who finsihed pretty much with him in the Derby. If Master don't find himself on a dead rail this time, he could be there in the end. I like the fact that he raced a dent derby coming in fresh from another country. He could be much tighter this time around. Right now my 4 top picks are:
Mucho Macho Man
Animal Kingdom
Shackleford
Master Of Hounds
Here's what I think coud happen today. I think it's going to be a jockeys race. Most all of these horses are nice closers. And Animal Kingdom is a monster. If the grueling meet hasn't worn him down, he'll be coming like a bat out of hell in the stretch. So let's just assume he's the best closer here. I think maybe the biggest move of this race by the trainer was made with Mucho Macho Man. Right now this is the horse that i think will be in the money either first or second. First, this horse has been having some serious problems losing his shoes for the last couple of races. And trainer Kelly has gone to another blacksmith for this race, and he says he guarantees this time Mucho Macho won't be losing shoes during a race. I also like the move he made with a rider change putting Ramon Dominguez on him. Ramon is one of the most agressive riders in the country. And I have a feeling that with Macho Man breaking out of the 10 hole, he's going to go out fast and squeeze Shackleford way outside to make his trip a little tougher. It's just a feeling, but even though Ramon is considered a great rider, he's also been known to play a little dirty during a race. Plus Macho Man has never gone two races in a row outside of the money. So I'm betting he'll be there. Plus I really like the .59b bullet work he's put in since the Preakness. The horse still appears very fit.
I also think Ruler on Ice wearing blinkers to speed him up could give Shack a bit of a tussle early on. So I'm gambling that Shack will eventually tire out. But I'm going to look at the weather before making my final decision on this horse. Nehro is the horse that I'm having difficulty with. I think Steve Assmussen is the most underrated trainer in the country. So it bothers me to leave out a well rested horse like this. Right now the only knock I have on him is he simply hasn't been able to get it done against these top Graded horses...yet. And I believe he'll be bet down too much for this race with the public making a bigger deal than they should out of his extra rest coming in. Another horse I like to be running in the stretch to either win or pick up the pieces is Master Of Hounds. But this is where it could be a jockeys race because Santiva and Brilliant speed are the same type of horses who finsihed pretty much with him in the Derby. If Master don't find himself on a dead rail this time, he could be there in the end. I like the fact that he raced a dent derby coming in fresh from another country. He could be much tighter this time around. Right now my 4 top picks are:
Mucho Macho Man
Animal Kingdom
Shackleford
Master Of Hounds
It was raining this Morning, but not now.
Just a Ugly looking day with cloud cover.
They give it a 40% chance of T-Storms , winds are 10mph from the east
With No Sun in sight, I can't see this track drying up.
The tractors have been out Sealing the track as best as they can. They are using Floaters to keep the water to the top.
Because of this, I will wait 2-3 hours before I make my picks.
