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Posted: Monday August 22, 2011 11:22AM ; Updated: Monday August 22, 2011 11:22AM
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Granderson jumps to lead in AL MVP race
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Awards Watch takes its final full-scale look at the Most Valuable Player races this week (September will bring the condensed, "lightning-round" version of this column, which lists the top three contenders for all three awards every week), and finds the races as tight as ever. Sitting atop the American League list is a player who has not held the top position all season, while the National League race finds a pair of teammates locked in an apparent dead-heat.
NOTE: All stats through Sunday, August 21; League leaders in bold, major league leaders in bold and italics. The number in parenthesis after each player's name reflects his rank on the previous list (HM stands for honorable mention).
American League
1. Curtis Granderson, CF, Yankees (4)
Season Stats: .281/.375/.594, 35 HRs,
98 RBIs, 24 SBs
Last Three Weeks: .342/.448/.753, 6 HRs, 20 RBIs, 5 SBs
Thanks to two red-hot weeks, Granderson has pushed his on-base percentage to a season high and his average up over .280 for the first time since June 22, which, combined with the Yankees holding a half-game lead on the Red Sox for the best record in the American League and Adrian Gonzalez slumping, has pushed his name to the front of the AL MVP conversation. Granderson leads the majors in runs by 23 over second-place Jose Bautista, is tied with Prince Fielder for the major league lead in RBIs, is second in the majors in home runs and slugging percentage (both to Bautista), and is fourth in triples, and has done all of that while playing a solid centerfield and swiping 24 bases. He's having the kind of season that allows you to play this game:
Major league seasons with 30 HRs, 100 RBIs, 20 SBs, 100 R, 10 triples: six, most recently Andre Dawson in 1983; Granderson is two RBIs from adding a seventh.
Major league seasons with 40 HRs, 100 RBIs, 20 SBs, 100 R, 10 triples: Willie Mays, 1955; Granderson is two RBIs and five homers away from adding a second.
Major league seasons with 30 HRs, 100 RBIs, 30 SBs, 100 R, 10 triples: Ken Williams, 1939; Granderson is two RBIs and six steals away from adding a second.
Major league seasons with 40 HRs, 100 RBIs, 30 SBs, 100 R, 10 triples: none, but Granderson's could be the first.
There are two concerns with Granderson's candidacy. First, if his batting average and on-base percentage slip a bit down the stretch, some voters might balk. He has very little margin for error in those categories. The last league MVP to hit below .280 was Johnny Bench in 1972, and the last to hit below .290 was Dawson in 1987. The last to post an on-base percentage below .375 was Miguel Tejada in 2002. Dawson and Tejada are both regarded as mistakes by many baseball analysts. Second, advanced defensive statistics rate Granderson's play in center very poorly. The good news for Granderson is that few voters place much stock in those statistics, and it's difficult to actually see any deficiencies in his play in center when watching his games. One theory that has been floated posits that playing next to leftfielder Brett Gardner, who grades out as one of the best fielders in the game at any position, has artificially limited Granderson's range because Gardner gets to so many balls in their shared territory in left center, though that, too, has been difficult to see.
2. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Red Sox (1)
Season Stats:.343/.404/.537, 18 HRs, 94 RBIs
Last Three Weeks: .260/.317/.342, 0 HR, 4 RBIs
Gonzalez hasn't done much in August and has lost the RBI lead, which was a large part of the argument,
wrongheaded as it may have been, for his previous status as the frontrunner in this race. What jumps out to me now is Gonzalez's relative lack of power compared to those on either side of him in this list. Jose Bautista has hit twice as many home runs as Gonzalez in more than 100 fewer at-bats, while Granderson has hit one shy of twice as many in roughly 40 fewer ABs. Both also have an isolated power (batting average minus slugging) more than 100 points (or more than 60 percent) greater than Gonzalez's (Bautista: .333; Granderson .313; Gonzalez: .194). Advanced stats such as Wins Against Replacement Player (WARP) and it's descendent, WAR, have rated Jacoby Ellsbury as the most valuable Red Sox player for most of the season, and I think that reality is starting to come into focus for the electorate. Don't be surprised to see Ellsbury, not Gonzalez, on the abbreviated "lightning-round" list when this column returns to the MVP race in September.
3. Jose Bautista, RF, Blue Jays (2)
Season Stats: .318/
.459/
.652,
36 HRs, 80 RBIs
Last Three Weeks: .286/.461/.625, 5 HRs, 9 RBIs
By any purely objective analysis, Bautista has still been the best player in baseball, never mind the American League, this season. But because his team is not in contention, and because he has cooled off a bit since his white-hot first two months (.363/.505/.786, 20 HRs), his candidacy isn't being taken as seriously as it deserves to be. According to Baseball Prospectus's WARP, Bautista has been worth more than 2 � wins more than the next-most-valuable player in the game this season (Ellsbury). FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference's WAR have the race much tighter, but Bautista is still in the lead with a solid half-win lead over Ellsbury's Red Sox teammate Dustin Pedroia and the Dodgers' Matt Kemp, respectively.
Of course, one doesn't need advanced stats to see how good Bautista has been. He's leading the majors in the two most important things a hitter can do: getting on base (or, alternatively, not making outs) and hitting for extra-bases (that's on-base and slugging percentage); he's been a good and versatile defender, filling in at third-base when the Blue Jays needed him to and playing a strong rightfield; and he displays a similar athleticism on the bases. I expect that, if Bautista can avoid a major slump, he'll get far more consideration once the final numbers are in. Then again, I worry that the recent sign-stealing controversy surrounding the Blue Jays could serve as an excuse for many disregard Bautista in this race. Those tempted to do so should note that Bautista has hit .311/.452/.631 with 19 of his 36 home runs on the road this season.
