ADVANCED GAMBLING... CLASS 401

[THE SHRINK]

I am sure many of you have had this happen, therefore, I'd like to share a few scenarios to SEE how you would have handled each one...

A- You bet on a College Hoops game on Team A laying 3 points. The lines does down to 1 by gametime. You quickly learn you are on the WRONG SIDE of the game, not just because of the line move, but also because a star player is out or you forgot to see another handicapping angle that comes to you mind. What do you do?

1- Keep the bet as it is and pray...

2- Buy back the other side at current number and hope not to get middled or sided...

3- Buy back the other side, laying $1.50 on one of your sides, so as not to get middled or sided.

4- Wait until halftime, and hope to gain a middle for yourself...

5-None of the above, but something different...

B- I would also like to know how you'd have handled the situation in the NFL had the number started at lay 3 1/2 and closed at 2?

C- And lastly, in the NFL, what if the the number started at 5 1/2, then closed at 4? Would you treat this situation differently and how so?


Remember, you KNOW that you are down on the WRONG side of a game just before gametime, so you have options...

 

[SportSavant]

Assuming the wager is for the regular 1 UNIT...

For me it would be 1 or 4...

reason is simple... Although my chances are diminished... In sports, anything can happen... Even the sharpest gamblers are wrong 42% of the time.

Same strategy would apply in Football...

Strategy might change if I had wagered more on the game...

Good Post

 

[JimFiestSux]

Would just hope and pray on all 3. Next time wait till just before game time to play!

 

[Fishhead]

This is PRECISELY why I make 95% of my wagers 5 miniutes or less till posttime!!

Two things I accomplish by doing this.......

1. Virtually eliminate ever taking a BAD number.

2. With a nice array of sportsbooks, get what is the BEST number in the world a vast large majority of time.

I totally understand the value of betting some games early, but am confortable in missing those to sacrifice what I percieve is a tremendous advantage by being patient.

It is worked out well for me over the years.

 

[Fishhead]

The above scenario that I mentioned is HIGHLY effective in the NFL and NBA.

 

[packer2012]

Shrink,

"Remember, you KNOW that you are down on the WRONG side of a game just before gametime, so you have options..."

My experience is that you never really KNOW you are on the wrong side until after the game at least starts. NO WAY you can ever know that FOR SURE before games start!

 

[SportSavant]

Fishhead I think this is very giood strategy & very good advice...

Unless you have a VERY strong inkling that the number will get worse...

But you are absolutely right... We always need to remind ourselves that there will be TONS of games tomorrow... If we Love TEAM A.. & we wait... & lose he best number... We just need to be strong enough to walk from the game... This is very hard for Many of us to do.. Requires strong discipling...

 

[wantitall4moi]

I would chose 4.

In one way action I always bet the same amount. So basically it is just another wager in a list of wagers. In two or three days it will be a forgotten wager, win or lose.

 

[D2bets]

1 and/or 4. 2 and 3 are just silly. Eating heavy juice and/or getting middled therby paying juice on both ends of the equation. Not good. And I wouldn't treat 'C' any differently. Naturally the chance of getting siddled on -5.5/+4 is much less, but it's still there and it's still very poor if you're getting juiced -110 both ways. If you really hate the -5.5 and can get a rogue +4+ or +4.5, then maybe.

 

[Hitman26]

I would keep the bet and hope it hits (in each of the cases you submitted). Why would you wanna buy back the number before the game starts and put yourself in a no win situation? If you wait till halftime and try for a "middle", you are obviously ahead on the original bet. Why would you wanna give back your advantage? Why would you wanna take another bet where you have, in theory, just paid juice for the new bet?


That's my take
Hitman

 

[Railbird]

Situiation A

I do a double or triple pop on the +1, if I get greek middled so be it.

Situation B

I take the dog +125, again if I get reverse middled so be it.

Situation C

I do the same as situation A

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Strange, but I usually buy off, eat the lost juice. Maybe a split of the loss. A lot of variables to factor in, but generally, I bail, realize a loss and move on. I do not let it ride, nor do I risk a Polish middle. Especially if I guess an NFL 3 wrong. I can live with a loss of juice. I cannot live with a loss of both sides! Best Wishes...OF

 

[JudgeWapner]

I'd eat the bad # and hope the public money was responsible for the move.

 

[sickgambler]

here is what I would do Shrinky. If a line is now 5.5 in NFL and I am laying -7, I would shop around like crazy to find a 6 or 6.5 with one of my locals, which will not be hard. Then when i get read a 6.5 by a few of them, I will ask them each which side they are heavy on. And if they need the dog to win, I will bet them the dog and ask them to give me +7 even money, which is no big deal for them because if it lands on 7, they are happy because no one wins.. It's a wash.. This way, I just about wipe out my bet.. Having locals is key where anytime you need a number, they usually give it to me. These boys just love to write action, even if they're gettng the worse of the deal.

That's what I would do..

 

[acw]

sick,

Are there still many locals that do not have internet accounts?
Not on the European football I can tell you!

 

[hanktee]

A: Would ride it out and hope

B: Wouldn't have laid 3.5 if I liked the favorite but once it got to 3 would have done so.

C: No clue

 

[JaspersLaw]

I would choose option 2.

 

[TheGeneral+]

Welcome to The Rx.com Jaspers Law

 

[JaspersLaw]

Thanks The General. Been reading a few places for a while but quite new at the offshore gambling thing. Been betting for a long time and i'm kind of old-school but times are changing and the offshore world seems like a good option right now.

 

[heart222]

You laid 3 points cause you liked the game and the points. the rest of the world goes the other way. now you discover you missed a handicapping angle mabey you missed another 1 and 3 is correct. When we bet do we want to be with the crowd or do we want to be where we percieve we will win, If we liked our bet at 3 dont we love it at 1? I guess I am in the group that does nothing. after all if I am a sharp guy why am i concerned about the public? if you dont believe in your self who are you going to believe in?