ive tried the halftime bailout thing a few times but actually i rarely get the number i need in that situation and end up just watching and praying. but one thing i have had some success with is to parlay the number with the biggest fav on the board for enough to split out if they both hit. then if the parlay is still alive after the 1 st game i can make sure i at least break even or even show a + by betting the huge dog in the second game. can get complicated and if your not careful you might even dig the hole a lil deeper. also i would only think about doing any of this on a larger than normal wager. if its a standard 1 unit type deal then ill just take my chances, i knew it had a chance of losing when i made it or it wouldnt be a 1 unit wager to begin with.
I normally play ML not points, and as such would cover on the other side and eat the difference as a loss. Make it up on the next few plays hopefully.
The other thing I might do is wait for it to start and cover myself on a P2P betting exchange if my side kept it close early and could get out close to even.
These assume I realized what I missed (i.e. Bowa sits Thome and BUrrell and I didn't know). If it just some wise guy action, then I would likely let it ride.
later
The other thing I might do is wait for it to start and cover myself on a P2P betting exchange if my side kept it close early and could get out close to even.
These assume I realized what I missed (i.e. Bowa sits Thome and BUrrell and I didn't know). If it just some wise guy action, then I would likely let it ride.
later
Shrink, there is no reason for you to be so negative. You have to bring up days when I have lost tons by being on the wrong side. I am a stubborn asshole, and I never get off the games when the line goes against me. That costs me a fortune every year. Thanks a lot for ruining my day during the all-star break by reminding me of something that really hurt me last year.
Shrink. How about a happy topic during my three days off?
Assuming my bet on the wrong side was for one unit, then the only rational thing to do IMO is to find the best line on the right side and bet one MORE unit than what I would have bet, had I not made the mistake.
If points can be bought at a reasonable price to avoid the Polish middle I would do that, but only if the price is reasonable. 10c on or off the number 5 in NFL is not reasonable, but on/off a 6 or a 4 it would be IMO.
If points can be bought at a reasonable price to avoid the Polish middle I would do that, but only if the price is reasonable. 10c on or off the number 5 in NFL is not reasonable, but on/off a 6 or a 4 it would be IMO.
Now he mentions the vital tidbit, just like the Don Best screen at the buzzer often, Shrink reveals the move after post-time, now pointing to the obvious..that it's a group that came in hand over fist..thanks a lot!
Depending on the variables of whether college or pro, how much conviction to said game had, which group hit it & WHEN, I vary between Judge Wapner and OF's respones.
I'm not one of them, but the really connected can get the answers to "whom, what, where, when, and how much", it goes a long way in protecting one's bankroll.
Some groups are college oriented, some are better at pros,etc..
Besides if the game sits right at halftime, and/or the linemaker is willing, you may be able to get off.
Depending on the variables of whether college or pro, how much conviction to said game had, which group hit it & WHEN, I vary between Judge Wapner and OF's respones.
I'm not one of them, but the really connected can get the answers to "whom, what, where, when, and how much", it goes a long way in protecting one's bankroll.
Some groups are college oriented, some are better at pros,etc..
Besides if the game sits right at halftime, and/or the linemaker is willing, you may be able to get off.
Rail, who has been working on their punch swings, to stay under the wind?
I just love watching play at Royal Troon/Carnoustie, where the wind and bunkers make the immortals hack like the rest of us, and where just as in real war..the Frenchman always surrenders!
Lander, just teasing with your Van de Velde & Levet, as I really like watching the Euro players that we rarely get to see as much in action over here..a different game with different skills.
DP, by the time my slow brain computes that I'm on the wrong side, it's usually too late(ex: UF vs Tenn in the Swamp last fall..knew I lost it in 1st Qtr)..I was just teasing on Shrink & Don Best with a "now you tell me.."
I just love watching play at Royal Troon/Carnoustie, where the wind and bunkers make the immortals hack like the rest of us, and where just as in real war..the Frenchman always surrenders!
Lander, just teasing with your Van de Velde & Levet, as I really like watching the Euro players that we rarely get to see as much in action over here..a different game with different skills.
DP, by the time my slow brain computes that I'm on the wrong side, it's usually too late(ex: UF vs Tenn in the Swamp last fall..knew I lost it in 1st Qtr)..I was just teasing on Shrink & Don Best with a "now you tell me.."
I used to chase line movements all over the place, wait til the last minute to make bets etc. Total waste of time in my experience. Granted I am not a high-roller gambler and this may be worth it to the Billy Walters of the world, but at the unit size that I bet it is totally pointless to spend my time obsessively looking for line changes.
It's true that a line movement might have made a difference on some bets, especially a two-point move in NCAA hoops as Shrink puts in the first scenario, but if your overall betting practices produce results so weak that a single game line movement is going to screw up your day, you need to stop or call Gamblers Anonymous or something.
My $ 0.02
Phaedrus
It's true that a line movement might have made a difference on some bets, especially a two-point move in NCAA hoops as Shrink puts in the first scenario, but if your overall betting practices produce results so weak that a single game line movement is going to screw up your day, you need to stop or call Gamblers Anonymous or something.
My $ 0.02
Phaedrus
Some pretty bizarre answers in this thread!
I think many need a lesson in Economics "Fixed Costs". Specifically, once you make a bet that is water under the bridge and no longer should be used as a factor in future bets, other than to help measure risk.
So in case 1 you bet team A. You now know team B is the "right" side. (Obviously) you must bet team B. Further, you know buying 1/2 points is an inferior bet so you have no choice. You bet the same amount back (ok to bet even more on team B). You risk the Polish middle, and of course you tune it at halftime to see if you can get some rogue line on team B to bet some more, hopefully where you won't be in a situation to get middled.
Re: NFl. If you layed -3.5 (and one has to wonder why) now you again have to play the right side. Of course, we don't play +2 NFL dogs at +2. We buy up to +3.5 vs. a friendly point buying shop, and/or we agressively play teasers up to +8.
Re: NFL. If you got +2.5 (and again, one has to question who would play into an early +2.5 line with no buy) then you need to lay the chalk. Find a liberal point buying shop and buy down to -2.5.
The keys to the question are
1) Don't be an ostrich and stick your head in the sand and be paralized from betting simply because you bet a game early. If their is a "right" side that flipflops you need to back it later, regardless of earlier bets.
2)Buying points in hoops is typically a big mistake, even if it reduces vig. The hit in expectation is too steep.
3) In the NFL any time you are on the bad side of 3 (laying 3.5, getting 2.5) you have to take advantage of advantageous point buying. Also +2 and +2.5 games are great teaser candidates. These teasers work especially well in the example given to
a) Mitigate risk while
b) INCREASING expectation.
Ps. I've had every one of the three situations you described above.
I think many need a lesson in Economics "Fixed Costs". Specifically, once you make a bet that is water under the bridge and no longer should be used as a factor in future bets, other than to help measure risk.
So in case 1 you bet team A. You now know team B is the "right" side. (Obviously) you must bet team B. Further, you know buying 1/2 points is an inferior bet so you have no choice. You bet the same amount back (ok to bet even more on team B). You risk the Polish middle, and of course you tune it at halftime to see if you can get some rogue line on team B to bet some more, hopefully where you won't be in a situation to get middled.
Re: NFl. If you layed -3.5 (and one has to wonder why) now you again have to play the right side. Of course, we don't play +2 NFL dogs at +2. We buy up to +3.5 vs. a friendly point buying shop, and/or we agressively play teasers up to +8.
Re: NFL. If you got +2.5 (and again, one has to question who would play into an early +2.5 line with no buy) then you need to lay the chalk. Find a liberal point buying shop and buy down to -2.5.
The keys to the question are
1) Don't be an ostrich and stick your head in the sand and be paralized from betting simply because you bet a game early. If their is a "right" side that flipflops you need to back it later, regardless of earlier bets.
2)Buying points in hoops is typically a big mistake, even if it reduces vig. The hit in expectation is too steep.
3) In the NFL any time you are on the bad side of 3 (laying 3.5, getting 2.5) you have to take advantage of advantageous point buying. Also +2 and +2.5 games are great teaser candidates. These teasers work especially well in the example given to
a) Mitigate risk while
b) INCREASING expectation.
Ps. I've had every one of the three situations you described above.
Ok guys,
The above scenarios have indeed happened to me and this is how I handled them...
I also would like to point out for argument's sake, that the moves were created by BW...
In example 1, when a hoops game moves 2 points, it would cost me $1.50 to BUY the same number back and bet the other side, meaning I am a 3-2 UNDERDOG approximately and hypothetically from a numbers buying standpoint...
Basically I only have a 40% chance of winning when I am getting 2 points the worst of it.
And that is NOT factoring WHO is moving the line and for arguments sake, let's say I know it is BW...(who does hit around 57% lifetime)
Some of you can argue that each 1/2 point is not worth 10 cents just because they charge it, but I am just going on what it would cost me to buy down to the current number. This is indeed all about mathematics for me. And I am trying to keep it simple...
With all that being said, it is only a 50-50 proposition if I were to bet at the new number plus 1, in the first example. If it were much better than 50-50, then for sure BW would have kept betting it down more
I look at the first bet I made thinking I have about a 40% chance of winning. Now if I were to buy the number all the way down to 1, it is absolutely wrong to give away more juice because each half point is NOT worth 10 cents, although I believe buying onto the 2 is...
Bottom line for me is that I don't do a damn thing but HOLD in case 1...
Example 2 is real simple. I am at a tremendous disadvantage where I am, but buying on and off of the 3 in Football is ridiculous and would cost me 50 cents more juice just to go from 3 1 /2 to 2 1/2 or minus $1.70 to go all the way from 3 1/2 to 2...
I HOLD again...
Now the last example is far more interesting and deserves much more attention.
Although a 1 1/2 point move in Football is considerable SINCE I KNOW IT CAME FROM BW, the fact that it went from what I call DEAD number to another DEAD number (5 1/2 to 4 )works out quite well for me...
And rather than being on what I consider the WRONG SIDE, since 5 is the only number that I can get middled on, I simply don't pay the additional juice and I bet twice as much on The Right side at plus 4, knowing full well, I don't have the best number, but I am on the RIGHT side with only DEAD numbers working against me to get middled or sided ...
That's all for now from Yours Truly...
Some may agree, and some may disagree on how to handle it, but since I brought it up, I felt it important to share what I have done in the past...
THE SHRINK
The above scenarios have indeed happened to me and this is how I handled them...
I also would like to point out for argument's sake, that the moves were created by BW...
In example 1, when a hoops game moves 2 points, it would cost me $1.50 to BUY the same number back and bet the other side, meaning I am a 3-2 UNDERDOG approximately and hypothetically from a numbers buying standpoint...
Basically I only have a 40% chance of winning when I am getting 2 points the worst of it.
And that is NOT factoring WHO is moving the line and for arguments sake, let's say I know it is BW...(who does hit around 57% lifetime)
Some of you can argue that each 1/2 point is not worth 10 cents just because they charge it, but I am just going on what it would cost me to buy down to the current number. This is indeed all about mathematics for me. And I am trying to keep it simple...
With all that being said, it is only a 50-50 proposition if I were to bet at the new number plus 1, in the first example. If it were much better than 50-50, then for sure BW would have kept betting it down more
I look at the first bet I made thinking I have about a 40% chance of winning. Now if I were to buy the number all the way down to 1, it is absolutely wrong to give away more juice because each half point is NOT worth 10 cents, although I believe buying onto the 2 is...
Bottom line for me is that I don't do a damn thing but HOLD in case 1...
Example 2 is real simple. I am at a tremendous disadvantage where I am, but buying on and off of the 3 in Football is ridiculous and would cost me 50 cents more juice just to go from 3 1 /2 to 2 1/2 or minus $1.70 to go all the way from 3 1/2 to 2...
I HOLD again...
Now the last example is far more interesting and deserves much more attention.
Although a 1 1/2 point move in Football is considerable SINCE I KNOW IT CAME FROM BW, the fact that it went from what I call DEAD number to another DEAD number (5 1/2 to 4 )works out quite well for me...
And rather than being on what I consider the WRONG SIDE, since 5 is the only number that I can get middled on, I simply don't pay the additional juice and I bet twice as much on The Right side at plus 4, knowing full well, I don't have the best number, but I am on the RIGHT side with only DEAD numbers working against me to get middled or sided ...
That's all for now from Yours Truly...
Some may agree, and some may disagree on how to handle it, but since I brought it up, I felt it important to share what I have done in the past...
THE SHRINK
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Phaedrus:
Shrink, you make a good point, but how many offshore sports bettors have reliable information on BW's picks? If we all knew that there would be no offshore betting industry, because it would have gone collectively bankrupt years ago.
Phaedrus<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
More than you think Phaedrus...
And here's a tip to take to the bank...
If you don't know WHO or WHY a game moved 2 points, you should consider it to be BW until proven otherwise...
THE SHRINK
Shrink, you make a good point, but how many offshore sports bettors have reliable information on BW's picks? If we all knew that there would be no offshore betting industry, because it would have gone collectively bankrupt years ago.
Phaedrus<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
More than you think Phaedrus...
And here's a tip to take to the bank...
If you don't know WHO or WHY a game moved 2 points, you should consider it to be BW until proven otherwise...
THE SHRINK
