2018 Conference USA Preview
July 8, 2018
We’re Back
Conference USA welcomes the return of six 2017 individual award winners for the 2018 season. They include MVP Devin Singletary, RB, Florida Atlantic, Offensive Player of the Year Mason Fine, QB, North Texas, Special Teams Player of the Year Isaiah Harper, KR, Old Dominion, Freshman of the Year Spencer Brown, RB, UAB, and Newcomers of the Year Teddy Veal, WR, Louisiana Tech and Jalen Guyton, WR, North Texas.
In addition, C-USA had six (6) individual leaders and three (3) team leaders in national statistical categories last season and each of those individual performers return for the 2018 season. Team leaders included FAU (No. 1 Interceptions-20), UTSA (No. 1 Fewest First Downs Allowed-166) and FIU (No. 1 Red Zone Offense-.976).
It’s Us Again
For the first time since the 2011-2012 season, Conference USA Football will feature the same configuration of teams competing for the league championship in consecutive years, each playing eight conference games, along with four non-league contests.
In Your Face
Conference USA teams never shy away from playing challenging non-conference competition and this season is no exception. Conference USA will face at least one opponent from each of the nine other FBS conferences in 2018 and a total of 22 games are scheduled against teams that played in a bowl game last season.
Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.
CHARLOTTE (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 10/3, 53 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: COCK-A-DOODLE-DOO
A major benefit of going full-youth is that after taking your lumps, there is generally only one way to go, and that’s up. Spring chickens turn into barnyard roosters and with it an air of hidden confidence is shaped. A young core of sophomores and juniors are now upper classmen. Head coach Brad Lambert, who learned as a 10-year assistant under Jim Grobe, rebuilt lines on both sides of the ball last season while breaking in the pimply faces. As a result, his job is on the line. Thus, two new coordinators will look to revive a potentially strong ground game while better stuffing the run. An imbalanced schedule that finds the 49ers meeting bowlers in 7 of their final 8 games could prove to be the turning point.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Since becoming an FBS school, Charlotte is 1-11 SU and 4-7-1 ATS in its final six games of the season.
PLAY ON: vs. Florida Int’l (11/17)
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Offense – 5/2, Defense – 10/3, 47 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: LOOKING IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR
Ask head coach Lane Kiffin about the trap of living off last season’s success – the best season in school history – and the coach says, “That team is over with. We made sure to understand this is a different team. We’re 0-0. That’s in the history books, a very special season. Just like the preseason rankings mean nothing.” A season-ending 10-game win skein was the catalyst. Having talented RB Devin “Motor” Singletary back is a good starting point. In addition, the defense returns 10 starters. Still, a salty schedule (all 6 road games against bowl squads) and a major bulls-eye on their back means another 11 wins are highly unlikely in 2018. Because, after all, last season is officially in the history books.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Owls are 7-19 SU in one-possession games since Howard Schnellenberger resigned, including 3-9 the L3 seasons.
PLAY AGAINST: at Middle Tennessee (9/29)
FIU (Offense – 7/4, Defense – 4/3, 55 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BUTCH BALL
Butch Davis’ return to south Florida last season was measurably impactful when FIU doubled its win total, and then enjoyed its best recruiting class in school history during the offseason. To put it in a better perspective, SB Nation’s Bill Connelly reported, “UCF went 13-0 and claimed a share of the national title. FAU won 11 games and its first CUSA title. FIU lost by a combined 113-41 to those in-state rivals… and then out-recruited both of them.” Granted, the Golden Panthers weren’t as good as their 8-5 record suggests since they allowed more YPG than they actually gained. They also benefited mightily by returning 85% of the production on both sides of the ball last season. Let’s see if the recruiting effort offsets a natural letdown.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: FIU is 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS versus sub .333 conference foes without Ron Turner since 2010.
PLAY AGAINST: at Old Dominion (9/8)
LOUISIANA TECH (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 7/3, 52 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: SKIP TO MY LOU
The hard-luck Bulldogs suffered three 1-point losses in 2017, and dipped to 7-6 after consecutive nine-win seasons, costing the Bulldogs a third division title in four years in the process. A 3-0 SUATS win skein left them playing their best ball of the season following a 41-point win over SMU in the Frisco Bowl. Meanwhile, Skip Holtz returns a good portion of last year’s nucleus (#30 nationally in returning production), including QB J’Mar Smith (143.5 passer rating away from home), four if its top five WRs, two all-CUSA OL, and the best player in the loop on defense in DL Jaylon Ferguson. Best of all, Holtz inked a whopping 16 three-star recruits this offseason. With Holtz in his sixth year with the program, the pieces are in place for a return to 9-win territory.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Holtz is 44-23-1 ATS as a dog in his career, including 20-2-1 ATS when coming off an ATS win of more than 8 points.
PLAY ON: at Florida Atlantic (10/27)
MARSHALL (Offense – 9/5, Defense – 9/4, 52 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BACK TO THUNDERING
Roll back the clock. The only Group of 5 program to record a third straight 10-win season in 2015, the Herd went from a thundering 33 wins in three seasons to a blundering 3 victories in 2016. Strangely, Marshall committed only 16 turnovers in 2016, the fewest for the program since it entered FBS waters in 1997. Shell-shocked, the Herd stormed back with 8 wins last season, including three losses during the final month of the campaign by a combined total of just 8 points. The challenge this season will be replacing QB Chase Litton (declared for the NFL draft, with Alex Thomson the likely successor) and both coordinators. Fortunately 9 starters are back from a defense that improved 113 YPG in 2017. That should make the Herd relevant again.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Marshall is 8-0-1 ATS at home with revenge against greater than .800 opponents.
PLAY ON: at Florida International (11/24) - *KEY
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 8/3, 47 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BACK FROM THE ICU
Let’s tell it like it is. Injuries wrecked any chance at improvement last season when both starting quarterback Brent Stockstill and star WR Richie James missed at least half of the season (the Raiders were 5-2 with Brent and 2-4 without him). QB Stockstill returns while James bypassed his final year of eligibility for the NFL Draft. Still, behind a deep squad, MTSU rates a solid chance to win the CUSA as the Blue Raiders return every running back and their top three wide receivers (other than James), along with two all-conference linemen on offense. Plus, six of the top seven defensive linemen, as well as three of four linebackers and five of eight defensive backs, are also back. Despite three road games at SEC schools that won 25 games last season, we’re on the Stockstills like Ozzie on Harriet.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: MTSU has been bowl eligible nine times in 12 years under HC Rick Stockstill, competing in seven bowl games.
PLAY ON: at Vanderbilt (9/1) – KEY as a dog
NORTH TEXAS (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 8/2, 44 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: FROM GREEN TO GO
After inheriting a 1-11 team, head coach Seth Littrell has won 14 games and a division title in his first two years in Denton. How much of an improvement did the Mean Green make in 2017? Consider: after having gone 2-17 SU and 4-15 ATS away the previous three years, outyarded by 175 YPG, they proceeded to go 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS while being outgained by only 29 YPG in road games last season. It’s what happens when you possess a Top 25 ranked offense. Those numbers are likely to ascend in 2018 behind JR QB Mason Fine (4,052 yards, 31 TDs last season), who has his top three WRs back, including walk-on Michael Lawrence – a likely NFL slot receiver – while being tutored by OC Graham Harrell, the ex-Texas Tech quarterback.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Mean Green are 36-6 ATS in games in which they score 32 or more points.
PASS
OLD DOMINION (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 7/3, 46 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: A WILD RIDE
After their FCS debut in 2009, the Monarchs have suffered highs (10-win season in 2016) and lows. Through a series of injuries and inexperience, last year was taking on the appearance of the Titanic until a 3-1 finish literally salvaged the ship. Seventeen year-old true freshman QB Steven Williams stepped in and saved the day (71% completions in his last 3 starts with a 146.2 passer rating). He’s back, along with five OL with at least 10 career starts. In addition, four of last year’s five leading WRs, and leading RB Jeremy Cox (2,115 career yards) combine to form an offensive assault that promises to more than make up for last year’s 102-yard slippage. We’re putting the danger warning on Old Dominion. Beware.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Old Dominion has sold out all 60 home games in school history and has a 44-16 SU record in those games.
PLAY ON: at Western Kentucky (10/20)
RICE (Offense – *6/2, Defense – 5/2, 46 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: OWLS IN FLIGHT
Following four straight years of regression, the David Bailiff regime at Rice is finally over. Somehow through it all, Bailiff recorded the 2nd most wins in school history. Replacing him is Mike Bloomgren, a former OC at Stanford. He’ll turn the keys over to SO QB Miklo Smalls, who stepped in late last season when the Owls offense improved from 13.1 PPG over their first eight games to 22.5 over the last four. New DC Brian Smith, a former Michigan DBs coach, must patch a defense that has allowed more then 36 PPG the last three seasons. It starts with a rush unit that has coughed up 200 rushing YPG at 5.2 yards per rush clip. A new voyage is about to begin.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Rice is 30-9-3 ATS as a conference home dog, including 16-1-2 ATS when taking less than 7 points.
PLAY ON: vs. UAB (10/13) - *KEY as a dog
SOUTHERN MISS (Offense – *5/3, Defense – 4/2, 42 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BACKWARDS THINKING
Last year we called for an uptick in the Golden Eagles program and they delivered the goods, improving their production both straight up and against the spread. The problem now, though, is the “Smith Barney” syndrome. Simply put, they didn’t ‘earn it’ as their overall stats declined on both sides of the ball. Compounding the issue, Jay Hopson was forced to go the JUCO route and will hope three-star transfer QB Jack Abraham beats out incumbent Kwadra Griggs. USM will lean heavily on a trio of returning WRs, including Korey Robertson, who had a breakout season in 2017 with 76 receptions, 1,106 yards and 12 TDS. Still, when reconstructed teams look to rely on JUCOs, the results seldom meet expectations.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Golden Eagles’ seniors started 59.4% of their games last season, the 3rd most in the nation.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Marshall (11/3)
UAB (Offense – *10/4, Defense – 7/2, 55 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: YEAH, WE’RE BACK
After closing the football program down for blasphemous reasons in 2015 and 2016, the Blazers re-emerged in a statement-making way last season. After going 6-0 at home, 6-2 in CUSA and fielding a 41st-ranked defense – and going bowling for only the second time in school history – it meant little losing 41-6 to Ohio U in the Bahamas Bowl. UAB was back and was indeed the feel-good story in college football last season (sorry, UCF, but you’ll need to get in line). The better news is the offense returns literally everyone and the defense is stacked. The bad news is a huge contingent of seniors will be gone after this season. Rest assured, Bill Clark’s troops will savor every moment, especially going up against the 2nd easiest schedule of all FBS schools in 2018 with foes going 57-91 (.385) last season.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Blazers are 7-1 ATS under Clark when facing an opponent coming off a win, including 5-0 ATS when UAB is coming off a loss.
PLAY AGAINST: 11/3 vs. UTSA
UTEP (Offense – *5/0, Defense – 6/2, 50 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: LONG IN THE TOOTH
New Miners’ head coach Dana Dimel has been tasked with reviving arguably the worst program in the FBS, one whose offense gained a mere 230.5 yards and 11.8 points per game in 2017 – dead last. And if that isn’t bad enough, the UTEP defense allowed 446.6 yards and 36.8 points per contest. Egad. A 30-year veteran Dimel, is a former Kansas State assistant under Bill Snyder, as well as a former head coach at Houston and Wyoming. That Dimel, just 4-17 ATS as a conference favorite, hired 33-year veteran Mike Canales as his OC speaks volumes as Canales’ North Texas teams as OC under Dan McCarney finished No. 122 in offense in both 2014 and 2015. And this offense is worse. Meanwhile, 30-year veteran Mike Cox will run the defense.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Miners are 9-65-1 SU and 16-54-3 ATS in the last 75 games in which they have been outgained in the stats.
PASS
UTSA (Offense – 4/2, Defense – 6/3, 38 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BEDROCK QUARREL
It’s safe to say that UTSA will take the field with a massive chip on its shoulder. Not only did they measurably improve their numbers on both sides of the ball while leading all FBS teams in First Down Defense, they also finished No. 2 in fewest Passing Yards Allowed. In the process, they outgained 8 of their 11 opponents and finished with a winning record – only to peculiarly be shut out of a bowl invite. Faced with numerous personnel and coaching changes, they will need to heavily rely on that massive chip we alluded to. Leaving no stone unturned, our guess is the rebuilding Roadrunners may likely be referred to as the Slate Rock and Gravel Company this season. Yabba dabba doo.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Roadrunners are 2-19 ATS in SU conference losses.
PLAY ON: at Southern Miss (10/20)
WESTERN KENTUCKY (Offense – 4/2, Defense – 7/2, 55 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: MORE OIL, PLEASE
Talk about a bummer. When WKU hired former assistant Mike Sanford as its new head coach last year, they were fully expecting to win the CUSA for a third straight season. After all Sanford, one of college football brightest offensive minds, returned SR QB Mike White from the nation’s top scoring offense. What he didn’t count on was the total disappearance of a rushing game that was MIA on both sides of the ball all season. The Hilltoppers’ dead-last ranked rush offense declined 124 YPG while its rush defense deteriorated 73 YPG. That’s a combined total of 197-degenerated rushing yards. As a result, they fell from 23-5 to 6-7 and recorded their first losing season since 2010. With White gone, Sanford is burning the midnight oil as you read this hoping his replacement – FR QB Kevaris Thomas – lives up to his billing.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: WKU has gone OVER its season win total five of the last six years.
PLAY ON: at Florida Atlantic (11/10) *KEY as a dog
July 8, 2018
We’re Back
Conference USA welcomes the return of six 2017 individual award winners for the 2018 season. They include MVP Devin Singletary, RB, Florida Atlantic, Offensive Player of the Year Mason Fine, QB, North Texas, Special Teams Player of the Year Isaiah Harper, KR, Old Dominion, Freshman of the Year Spencer Brown, RB, UAB, and Newcomers of the Year Teddy Veal, WR, Louisiana Tech and Jalen Guyton, WR, North Texas.
In addition, C-USA had six (6) individual leaders and three (3) team leaders in national statistical categories last season and each of those individual performers return for the 2018 season. Team leaders included FAU (No. 1 Interceptions-20), UTSA (No. 1 Fewest First Downs Allowed-166) and FIU (No. 1 Red Zone Offense-.976).
It’s Us Again
For the first time since the 2011-2012 season, Conference USA Football will feature the same configuration of teams competing for the league championship in consecutive years, each playing eight conference games, along with four non-league contests.
In Your Face
Conference USA teams never shy away from playing challenging non-conference competition and this season is no exception. Conference USA will face at least one opponent from each of the nine other FBS conferences in 2018 and a total of 22 games are scheduled against teams that played in a bowl game last season.
Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.
CHARLOTTE (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 10/3, 53 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: COCK-A-DOODLE-DOO
A major benefit of going full-youth is that after taking your lumps, there is generally only one way to go, and that’s up. Spring chickens turn into barnyard roosters and with it an air of hidden confidence is shaped. A young core of sophomores and juniors are now upper classmen. Head coach Brad Lambert, who learned as a 10-year assistant under Jim Grobe, rebuilt lines on both sides of the ball last season while breaking in the pimply faces. As a result, his job is on the line. Thus, two new coordinators will look to revive a potentially strong ground game while better stuffing the run. An imbalanced schedule that finds the 49ers meeting bowlers in 7 of their final 8 games could prove to be the turning point.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Since becoming an FBS school, Charlotte is 1-11 SU and 4-7-1 ATS in its final six games of the season.
PLAY ON: vs. Florida Int’l (11/17)
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Offense – 5/2, Defense – 10/3, 47 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: LOOKING IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR
Ask head coach Lane Kiffin about the trap of living off last season’s success – the best season in school history – and the coach says, “That team is over with. We made sure to understand this is a different team. We’re 0-0. That’s in the history books, a very special season. Just like the preseason rankings mean nothing.” A season-ending 10-game win skein was the catalyst. Having talented RB Devin “Motor” Singletary back is a good starting point. In addition, the defense returns 10 starters. Still, a salty schedule (all 6 road games against bowl squads) and a major bulls-eye on their back means another 11 wins are highly unlikely in 2018. Because, after all, last season is officially in the history books.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Owls are 7-19 SU in one-possession games since Howard Schnellenberger resigned, including 3-9 the L3 seasons.
PLAY AGAINST: at Middle Tennessee (9/29)
FIU (Offense – 7/4, Defense – 4/3, 55 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BUTCH BALL
Butch Davis’ return to south Florida last season was measurably impactful when FIU doubled its win total, and then enjoyed its best recruiting class in school history during the offseason. To put it in a better perspective, SB Nation’s Bill Connelly reported, “UCF went 13-0 and claimed a share of the national title. FAU won 11 games and its first CUSA title. FIU lost by a combined 113-41 to those in-state rivals… and then out-recruited both of them.” Granted, the Golden Panthers weren’t as good as their 8-5 record suggests since they allowed more YPG than they actually gained. They also benefited mightily by returning 85% of the production on both sides of the ball last season. Let’s see if the recruiting effort offsets a natural letdown.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: FIU is 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS versus sub .333 conference foes without Ron Turner since 2010.
PLAY AGAINST: at Old Dominion (9/8)
LOUISIANA TECH (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 7/3, 52 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: SKIP TO MY LOU
The hard-luck Bulldogs suffered three 1-point losses in 2017, and dipped to 7-6 after consecutive nine-win seasons, costing the Bulldogs a third division title in four years in the process. A 3-0 SUATS win skein left them playing their best ball of the season following a 41-point win over SMU in the Frisco Bowl. Meanwhile, Skip Holtz returns a good portion of last year’s nucleus (#30 nationally in returning production), including QB J’Mar Smith (143.5 passer rating away from home), four if its top five WRs, two all-CUSA OL, and the best player in the loop on defense in DL Jaylon Ferguson. Best of all, Holtz inked a whopping 16 three-star recruits this offseason. With Holtz in his sixth year with the program, the pieces are in place for a return to 9-win territory.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Holtz is 44-23-1 ATS as a dog in his career, including 20-2-1 ATS when coming off an ATS win of more than 8 points.
PLAY ON: at Florida Atlantic (10/27)
MARSHALL (Offense – 9/5, Defense – 9/4, 52 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BACK TO THUNDERING
Roll back the clock. The only Group of 5 program to record a third straight 10-win season in 2015, the Herd went from a thundering 33 wins in three seasons to a blundering 3 victories in 2016. Strangely, Marshall committed only 16 turnovers in 2016, the fewest for the program since it entered FBS waters in 1997. Shell-shocked, the Herd stormed back with 8 wins last season, including three losses during the final month of the campaign by a combined total of just 8 points. The challenge this season will be replacing QB Chase Litton (declared for the NFL draft, with Alex Thomson the likely successor) and both coordinators. Fortunately 9 starters are back from a defense that improved 113 YPG in 2017. That should make the Herd relevant again.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Marshall is 8-0-1 ATS at home with revenge against greater than .800 opponents.
PLAY ON: at Florida International (11/24) - *KEY
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 8/3, 47 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BACK FROM THE ICU
Let’s tell it like it is. Injuries wrecked any chance at improvement last season when both starting quarterback Brent Stockstill and star WR Richie James missed at least half of the season (the Raiders were 5-2 with Brent and 2-4 without him). QB Stockstill returns while James bypassed his final year of eligibility for the NFL Draft. Still, behind a deep squad, MTSU rates a solid chance to win the CUSA as the Blue Raiders return every running back and their top three wide receivers (other than James), along with two all-conference linemen on offense. Plus, six of the top seven defensive linemen, as well as three of four linebackers and five of eight defensive backs, are also back. Despite three road games at SEC schools that won 25 games last season, we’re on the Stockstills like Ozzie on Harriet.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: MTSU has been bowl eligible nine times in 12 years under HC Rick Stockstill, competing in seven bowl games.
PLAY ON: at Vanderbilt (9/1) – KEY as a dog
NORTH TEXAS (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 8/2, 44 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: FROM GREEN TO GO
After inheriting a 1-11 team, head coach Seth Littrell has won 14 games and a division title in his first two years in Denton. How much of an improvement did the Mean Green make in 2017? Consider: after having gone 2-17 SU and 4-15 ATS away the previous three years, outyarded by 175 YPG, they proceeded to go 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS while being outgained by only 29 YPG in road games last season. It’s what happens when you possess a Top 25 ranked offense. Those numbers are likely to ascend in 2018 behind JR QB Mason Fine (4,052 yards, 31 TDs last season), who has his top three WRs back, including walk-on Michael Lawrence – a likely NFL slot receiver – while being tutored by OC Graham Harrell, the ex-Texas Tech quarterback.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Mean Green are 36-6 ATS in games in which they score 32 or more points.
PASS
OLD DOMINION (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 7/3, 46 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: A WILD RIDE
After their FCS debut in 2009, the Monarchs have suffered highs (10-win season in 2016) and lows. Through a series of injuries and inexperience, last year was taking on the appearance of the Titanic until a 3-1 finish literally salvaged the ship. Seventeen year-old true freshman QB Steven Williams stepped in and saved the day (71% completions in his last 3 starts with a 146.2 passer rating). He’s back, along with five OL with at least 10 career starts. In addition, four of last year’s five leading WRs, and leading RB Jeremy Cox (2,115 career yards) combine to form an offensive assault that promises to more than make up for last year’s 102-yard slippage. We’re putting the danger warning on Old Dominion. Beware.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Old Dominion has sold out all 60 home games in school history and has a 44-16 SU record in those games.
PLAY ON: at Western Kentucky (10/20)
RICE (Offense – *6/2, Defense – 5/2, 46 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: OWLS IN FLIGHT
Following four straight years of regression, the David Bailiff regime at Rice is finally over. Somehow through it all, Bailiff recorded the 2nd most wins in school history. Replacing him is Mike Bloomgren, a former OC at Stanford. He’ll turn the keys over to SO QB Miklo Smalls, who stepped in late last season when the Owls offense improved from 13.1 PPG over their first eight games to 22.5 over the last four. New DC Brian Smith, a former Michigan DBs coach, must patch a defense that has allowed more then 36 PPG the last three seasons. It starts with a rush unit that has coughed up 200 rushing YPG at 5.2 yards per rush clip. A new voyage is about to begin.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Rice is 30-9-3 ATS as a conference home dog, including 16-1-2 ATS when taking less than 7 points.
PLAY ON: vs. UAB (10/13) - *KEY as a dog
SOUTHERN MISS (Offense – *5/3, Defense – 4/2, 42 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BACKWARDS THINKING
Last year we called for an uptick in the Golden Eagles program and they delivered the goods, improving their production both straight up and against the spread. The problem now, though, is the “Smith Barney” syndrome. Simply put, they didn’t ‘earn it’ as their overall stats declined on both sides of the ball. Compounding the issue, Jay Hopson was forced to go the JUCO route and will hope three-star transfer QB Jack Abraham beats out incumbent Kwadra Griggs. USM will lean heavily on a trio of returning WRs, including Korey Robertson, who had a breakout season in 2017 with 76 receptions, 1,106 yards and 12 TDS. Still, when reconstructed teams look to rely on JUCOs, the results seldom meet expectations.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Golden Eagles’ seniors started 59.4% of their games last season, the 3rd most in the nation.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Marshall (11/3)
UAB (Offense – *10/4, Defense – 7/2, 55 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: YEAH, WE’RE BACK
After closing the football program down for blasphemous reasons in 2015 and 2016, the Blazers re-emerged in a statement-making way last season. After going 6-0 at home, 6-2 in CUSA and fielding a 41st-ranked defense – and going bowling for only the second time in school history – it meant little losing 41-6 to Ohio U in the Bahamas Bowl. UAB was back and was indeed the feel-good story in college football last season (sorry, UCF, but you’ll need to get in line). The better news is the offense returns literally everyone and the defense is stacked. The bad news is a huge contingent of seniors will be gone after this season. Rest assured, Bill Clark’s troops will savor every moment, especially going up against the 2nd easiest schedule of all FBS schools in 2018 with foes going 57-91 (.385) last season.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Blazers are 7-1 ATS under Clark when facing an opponent coming off a win, including 5-0 ATS when UAB is coming off a loss.
PLAY AGAINST: 11/3 vs. UTSA
UTEP (Offense – *5/0, Defense – 6/2, 50 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: LONG IN THE TOOTH
New Miners’ head coach Dana Dimel has been tasked with reviving arguably the worst program in the FBS, one whose offense gained a mere 230.5 yards and 11.8 points per game in 2017 – dead last. And if that isn’t bad enough, the UTEP defense allowed 446.6 yards and 36.8 points per contest. Egad. A 30-year veteran Dimel, is a former Kansas State assistant under Bill Snyder, as well as a former head coach at Houston and Wyoming. That Dimel, just 4-17 ATS as a conference favorite, hired 33-year veteran Mike Canales as his OC speaks volumes as Canales’ North Texas teams as OC under Dan McCarney finished No. 122 in offense in both 2014 and 2015. And this offense is worse. Meanwhile, 30-year veteran Mike Cox will run the defense.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Miners are 9-65-1 SU and 16-54-3 ATS in the last 75 games in which they have been outgained in the stats.
PASS
UTSA (Offense – 4/2, Defense – 6/3, 38 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BEDROCK QUARREL
It’s safe to say that UTSA will take the field with a massive chip on its shoulder. Not only did they measurably improve their numbers on both sides of the ball while leading all FBS teams in First Down Defense, they also finished No. 2 in fewest Passing Yards Allowed. In the process, they outgained 8 of their 11 opponents and finished with a winning record – only to peculiarly be shut out of a bowl invite. Faced with numerous personnel and coaching changes, they will need to heavily rely on that massive chip we alluded to. Leaving no stone unturned, our guess is the rebuilding Roadrunners may likely be referred to as the Slate Rock and Gravel Company this season. Yabba dabba doo.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Roadrunners are 2-19 ATS in SU conference losses.
PLAY ON: at Southern Miss (10/20)
WESTERN KENTUCKY (Offense – 4/2, Defense – 7/2, 55 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: MORE OIL, PLEASE
Talk about a bummer. When WKU hired former assistant Mike Sanford as its new head coach last year, they were fully expecting to win the CUSA for a third straight season. After all Sanford, one of college football brightest offensive minds, returned SR QB Mike White from the nation’s top scoring offense. What he didn’t count on was the total disappearance of a rushing game that was MIA on both sides of the ball all season. The Hilltoppers’ dead-last ranked rush offense declined 124 YPG while its rush defense deteriorated 73 YPG. That’s a combined total of 197-degenerated rushing yards. As a result, they fell from 23-5 to 6-7 and recorded their first losing season since 2010. With White gone, Sanford is burning the midnight oil as you read this hoping his replacement – FR QB Kevaris Thomas – lives up to his billing.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: WKU has gone OVER its season win total five of the last six years.
PLAY ON: at Florida Atlantic (11/10) *KEY as a dog
Auburn QB Stidham gets engaged
July 8, 2018
Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham has a number of memorable victories under his belt, however his greatest triumph came this weekend when he proposed to his longtime girlfriend.
Stidham fell to one knee and proposed to Baylor soccer player Kennedy Brown in Lake Brownwood, Texas. Both members of the happy couple posted their happiness on Instagram.
"She said yes and I get to marry the girl of my dreams. Here's to forever Kenn, I love you," the 21-year-old Stidham wrote on Saturday.
In Stidham's eyes, her answer likely trumped Auburn's victories over Alabama in the Iron Bowl or top-ranked Georgia.
The couple met while Stidham was a player at Baylor in 2015. He sat out a season at McLennan Community College in Waco, Texas before transferring to Auburn in December 2016.
Stidham started every game under center for the SEC West champion Tigers in 2017. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound redshirt sophomore passed for 3,158 yards and 18 touchdowns last season, becoming the second Auburn quarterback to throw for 3,000-plus yards in a season.
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CFB Notebook: Alabama reports one minor violation to NCAA
July 7, 2018
Alabama reported 13 secondary violations to the NCAA but only one involved the football program.
The lone infraction by the football team was reported July 1, 2017, and was considered a minor violation, according to al.com.
Per the report, an assistant coach for the Crimson Tide responded to an "unknown text message which resulted in impermissible communication with the parent of a 2019 prospective student-athlete."
Last year, the university reported 22 secondary violations, including nine by the football program. In 2016, five of the 19 self-reported violations involved the football program.
The Crimson Tide defeated SEC rival Georgia 26-23 in overtime in the College Football Playoff Championship Game in January. It was the school's fifth national title in the last nine years.
--Wyoming linebacker Cassh Maluia was suspended for the season opener in the wake of his arrest a week ago.
Cowboys coach Craig Bohl announced that Maluia will miss the game against New Mexico State on Aug. 25.
Maluia was arrested June 30 in Laramie, Wyo., on multiple charges, including suspicion of driving under the influence. He also was charged with underage consumption of alcohol and driving without a valid driver's license.
"Cassh Maluia will be subject to several disciplinary actions," Bohl said in a statement. "He will be assessed a one-game suspension for this coming season. ... We also view this as a learning opportunity, not just for Cassh, but for the rest of our team members."
Bohn also noted that Maluia faces additional disciplinary action that will require mandatory counseling, the completion of an AWARE training program on campus and 50 hours of community service.
-- West Virginia will not kick off the 2018 campaign for nearly two months, but the football program already is in midseason form -- at least on social media.
The Mountaineers are going all out to promote returning starting quarterback Will Grier for the Heisman Trophy, launching a website devoted to hype his candidacy.
The university touted the website -- http://www.grier7heisman.com -- on its athletics website along with the accompanying hashtag "willtowin."
Grier, who started his college career at the University of Florida, passed for 3,490 yards and 34 touchdowns against 12 interceptions for West Virginia in 2017.
A dislocated finger on his throwing hand, sustained Nov. 18 against Texas, forced Grier to sit out the regular-season finale against Oklahoma and the Heart of Dallas Bowl matchup against Utah on Dec. 26.
July 8, 2018
Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham has a number of memorable victories under his belt, however his greatest triumph came this weekend when he proposed to his longtime girlfriend.
Stidham fell to one knee and proposed to Baylor soccer player Kennedy Brown in Lake Brownwood, Texas. Both members of the happy couple posted their happiness on Instagram.
"She said yes and I get to marry the girl of my dreams. Here's to forever Kenn, I love you," the 21-year-old Stidham wrote on Saturday.
In Stidham's eyes, her answer likely trumped Auburn's victories over Alabama in the Iron Bowl or top-ranked Georgia.
The couple met while Stidham was a player at Baylor in 2015. He sat out a season at McLennan Community College in Waco, Texas before transferring to Auburn in December 2016.
Stidham started every game under center for the SEC West champion Tigers in 2017. The 6-foot-3, 215-pound redshirt sophomore passed for 3,158 yards and 18 touchdowns last season, becoming the second Auburn quarterback to throw for 3,000-plus yards in a season.
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CFB Notebook: Alabama reports one minor violation to NCAA
July 7, 2018
Alabama reported 13 secondary violations to the NCAA but only one involved the football program.
The lone infraction by the football team was reported July 1, 2017, and was considered a minor violation, according to al.com.
Per the report, an assistant coach for the Crimson Tide responded to an "unknown text message which resulted in impermissible communication with the parent of a 2019 prospective student-athlete."
Last year, the university reported 22 secondary violations, including nine by the football program. In 2016, five of the 19 self-reported violations involved the football program.
The Crimson Tide defeated SEC rival Georgia 26-23 in overtime in the College Football Playoff Championship Game in January. It was the school's fifth national title in the last nine years.
--Wyoming linebacker Cassh Maluia was suspended for the season opener in the wake of his arrest a week ago.
Cowboys coach Craig Bohl announced that Maluia will miss the game against New Mexico State on Aug. 25.
Maluia was arrested June 30 in Laramie, Wyo., on multiple charges, including suspicion of driving under the influence. He also was charged with underage consumption of alcohol and driving without a valid driver's license.
"Cassh Maluia will be subject to several disciplinary actions," Bohl said in a statement. "He will be assessed a one-game suspension for this coming season. ... We also view this as a learning opportunity, not just for Cassh, but for the rest of our team members."
Bohn also noted that Maluia faces additional disciplinary action that will require mandatory counseling, the completion of an AWARE training program on campus and 50 hours of community service.
-- West Virginia will not kick off the 2018 campaign for nearly two months, but the football program already is in midseason form -- at least on social media.
The Mountaineers are going all out to promote returning starting quarterback Will Grier for the Heisman Trophy, launching a website devoted to hype his candidacy.
The university touted the website -- http://www.grier7heisman.com -- on its athletics website along with the accompanying hashtag "willtowin."
Grier, who started his college career at the University of Florida, passed for 3,490 yards and 34 touchdowns against 12 interceptions for West Virginia in 2017.
A dislocated finger on his throwing hand, sustained Nov. 18 against Texas, forced Grier to sit out the regular-season finale against Oklahoma and the Heart of Dallas Bowl matchup against Utah on Dec. 26.
Games to Watch - Week 1
July 9, 2018
Must Bet College Football Week 1 Odds & Picks
The clock is now officially counting down as we draw ever nearer to the opening day of the 2018 college football season. Week 1 will kick-off on August 25th with a handful of games featuring lesser teams. The real action, though, gets underway on September 1st, as that is when the big guns will be taking to the field for the first time this year.
The reigning champs, the Alabama Crimson Tide, will be out to once again defend their crown when they take on the Stanford Cardinal, and while many of the early favorites to win the National Championship have what appear to be slam dunk games, there are a few big ones on the schedule.
So let’s get on college football mode, review the current odds listed at YouWager.eu and take a closer look at the must bet college football games for Week 1 of the 2018 season.
Michigan Wolverines (-1 ½) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The honeymoon period for Jim Harbaugh at Michigan is now over, and there is now a sense that he needs to get this team to the playoffs this season. This is not to suggest that he is in the hot seat, but the warm and fuzzy happy times are certainly now in the rearview mirror. Picking up Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson will give the Wolverines an immediate upgrade at the QB position, and he will get a stern test in Week 1 with a visit to Notre Dame, a team looking to build on what was a very solid 2017. This is undoubtedly the game of the week, and I am looking at Michigan to get a big road win.
Auburn Tigers (-2 ½) vs. Washington Huskies
If you're a big fan of hard hitting, defensive football, this may well prove to be the best game on the opening week calendar for you. The Auburn Tigers are sure to still me smarting after losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game last season, as that loss killed their playoff hopes. They will be looking to get things rolling early with a big win over a PAC-12 opponent that is about as defensively sound as it gets. This one should be an epic battle where points will be a premium, but I think it will be Auburn that does enough to get the win in this neutral venue match-up.
LSU Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes (-3)
It was very nearly a year to remember for the Miami Hurricanes, with Mark Richt leading them to an improbable 10-0 start to the season before the wheels came off in the final 3 weeks of the season. There was always a feeling that this team was ahead of schedule, so this may actually be the year where they get better. We will find out very quickly, as they will open up at the AT&T Stadium in Texas with a neutral site game against the LSU Tigers, a team that always has one of the stingiest defenses in the league. I see a defensive struggle and a Miami win here.
Alabama Crimson Tide (-25) vs. Louisville Cardinals
While this match-up, which will be played in Florida, lost some of its luster with Lamar Jackson heading off to the NFL, it is still going to be interesting to see how the defending champions start the season. There is a little bit of a QB controversy in Alabama as we head into the new year, with Tua Tagovailoa staking his claim to the starting position by coming on in the second half of last season’s National Championship game and turning it around. While I certainly think Alabama will win this one, that big spread make me a little nervous.
July 9, 2018
Must Bet College Football Week 1 Odds & Picks
The clock is now officially counting down as we draw ever nearer to the opening day of the 2018 college football season. Week 1 will kick-off on August 25th with a handful of games featuring lesser teams. The real action, though, gets underway on September 1st, as that is when the big guns will be taking to the field for the first time this year.
The reigning champs, the Alabama Crimson Tide, will be out to once again defend their crown when they take on the Stanford Cardinal, and while many of the early favorites to win the National Championship have what appear to be slam dunk games, there are a few big ones on the schedule.
So let’s get on college football mode, review the current odds listed at YouWager.eu and take a closer look at the must bet college football games for Week 1 of the 2018 season.
Michigan Wolverines (-1 ½) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The honeymoon period for Jim Harbaugh at Michigan is now over, and there is now a sense that he needs to get this team to the playoffs this season. This is not to suggest that he is in the hot seat, but the warm and fuzzy happy times are certainly now in the rearview mirror. Picking up Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson will give the Wolverines an immediate upgrade at the QB position, and he will get a stern test in Week 1 with a visit to Notre Dame, a team looking to build on what was a very solid 2017. This is undoubtedly the game of the week, and I am looking at Michigan to get a big road win.
Auburn Tigers (-2 ½) vs. Washington Huskies
If you're a big fan of hard hitting, defensive football, this may well prove to be the best game on the opening week calendar for you. The Auburn Tigers are sure to still me smarting after losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game last season, as that loss killed their playoff hopes. They will be looking to get things rolling early with a big win over a PAC-12 opponent that is about as defensively sound as it gets. This one should be an epic battle where points will be a premium, but I think it will be Auburn that does enough to get the win in this neutral venue match-up.
LSU Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes (-3)
It was very nearly a year to remember for the Miami Hurricanes, with Mark Richt leading them to an improbable 10-0 start to the season before the wheels came off in the final 3 weeks of the season. There was always a feeling that this team was ahead of schedule, so this may actually be the year where they get better. We will find out very quickly, as they will open up at the AT&T Stadium in Texas with a neutral site game against the LSU Tigers, a team that always has one of the stingiest defenses in the league. I see a defensive struggle and a Miami win here.
Alabama Crimson Tide (-25) vs. Louisville Cardinals
While this match-up, which will be played in Florida, lost some of its luster with Lamar Jackson heading off to the NFL, it is still going to be interesting to see how the defending champions start the season. There is a little bit of a QB controversy in Alabama as we head into the new year, with Tua Tagovailoa staking his claim to the starting position by coming on in the second half of last season’s National Championship game and turning it around. While I certainly think Alabama will win this one, that big spread make me a little nervous.
CFB notebook: Alabama LB Lewis has torn ACL
July 10, 2018
Alabama linebacker Terrell Lewis sustained a torn ACL in his right knee last week, the school announced Tuesday.
"Terrell Lewis suffered a torn right ACL last week while training," Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban said in a statement. "He underwent successful surgery today, and a timeframe for his return is unknown at this time."
Lewis was projected to be a starter in the upcoming season. The torn ACL is the second significant injury Lewis has sustained in less than a year. He suffered an elbow injury in the season opener against Florida State that sidelined him 10 games last season.
Lewis recorded 16 tackles and a sack during the final four games of the season. Lewis' injury comes one day after the Crimson Tide announced fellow linebacker VanDarius Cowan was dismissed from the program for a violation of team rules.
--Iowa cornerback Manny Rugamba is leaving the school and plans to transfer.
Rugamba, who will be entering his junior season, announced his decision via his Twitter account but offered no reason for his departure.
"I would like to first thank the whole Iowa Coaching staff for the last two years of life lessons both on and off the field," wrote Rugamba. "The relationships that I've made are some that will last a lifetime. With that being said I have opened my recruitment and plan to transfer and find another home this fall."
Rugamba started eight games as a sophomore in 2017 after sitting out the season opener due to a suspension for an unspecified violation of team rules. He had 36 tackles and four passes defended.
--USC wide receiver Joseph Lewis was released from jail after serving a 21-day sentence.
Lewis, whose was freed on Friday, has been on suspension from the school since he was arrested in February in connection with two domestic violence incidents.
In May, Lewis pleaded no contest in May to two misdemeanor counts of domestic battery with an injury. A school spokesman told the Los Angeles Times that Lewis remains off the team roster.
As part of the plea agreement, Lewis still has to fulfill 36 months of probation, a one-year domestic violence treatment course and comply with a protective order to stay at least 100 yards from the victim, the newspaper reported.
July 10, 2018
Alabama linebacker Terrell Lewis sustained a torn ACL in his right knee last week, the school announced Tuesday.
"Terrell Lewis suffered a torn right ACL last week while training," Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban said in a statement. "He underwent successful surgery today, and a timeframe for his return is unknown at this time."
Lewis was projected to be a starter in the upcoming season. The torn ACL is the second significant injury Lewis has sustained in less than a year. He suffered an elbow injury in the season opener against Florida State that sidelined him 10 games last season.
Lewis recorded 16 tackles and a sack during the final four games of the season. Lewis' injury comes one day after the Crimson Tide announced fellow linebacker VanDarius Cowan was dismissed from the program for a violation of team rules.
--Iowa cornerback Manny Rugamba is leaving the school and plans to transfer.
Rugamba, who will be entering his junior season, announced his decision via his Twitter account but offered no reason for his departure.
"I would like to first thank the whole Iowa Coaching staff for the last two years of life lessons both on and off the field," wrote Rugamba. "The relationships that I've made are some that will last a lifetime. With that being said I have opened my recruitment and plan to transfer and find another home this fall."
Rugamba started eight games as a sophomore in 2017 after sitting out the season opener due to a suspension for an unspecified violation of team rules. He had 36 tackles and four passes defended.
--USC wide receiver Joseph Lewis was released from jail after serving a 21-day sentence.
Lewis, whose was freed on Friday, has been on suspension from the school since he was arrested in February in connection with two domestic violence incidents.
In May, Lewis pleaded no contest in May to two misdemeanor counts of domestic battery with an injury. A school spokesman told the Los Angeles Times that Lewis remains off the team roster.
As part of the plea agreement, Lewis still has to fulfill 36 months of probation, a one-year domestic violence treatment course and comply with a protective order to stay at least 100 yards from the victim, the newspaper reported.
A preseason quiz for FCS 2018
July 10, 2018
(STATS) - The arrival of conference media days this month marks the unofficial start to the college football season, so it's time to get in the FCS game.
Sure, North Dakota State and James Madison have become the national powers, but how well do you know the national landscape?
Our 10-question quiz about the fast-approaching season will show if you're in the end zone or punting.
The answers follow, so don't scroll to them before it's time.
QUESTIONS
1. North Dakota State has won six of the last seven FCS national titles, tying for the most in history. Which program will the Bison try to break away from to establish a new record?
2. Name the program that has dropped back to the FCS level from the FBS and the program joining the FCS from the Division II ranks? You need both answers right.
3. For the ninth time in 10 seasons, an FCS program is playing the defending FBS champion. This year, the honor falls to which team: Charleston Southern or The Citadel?
4. Jacksonville State has the longest conference winning streak in the FCS. Is it 28, 30 or 32 games long?
5. This player led Division I in receptions per game and finished third in the STATS FCS Walter Payton Award voting last season. Who is this 2019 NFL Draft prospect?
6. From the subdivision, only Montana and former FCS program Appalachian State have had more NFL Draft picks in the 2010s than this surprising program, which produced its sixth selection this year. Is it Maine, South Carolina State or Tennessee State?
7. Let's see if you remember this question from last year: The FCS is played at 124 schools across 37 states and the District of Columbia. What is the most common nickname: Bears, Bulldogs or Tigers?
8. "The Game" turns 135 in 2018. Where are Ivy League rivals Harvard and Yale playing this year's matchup?
9. Who has thrown for the most touchdowns among returning FCS quarterbacks - Northern Arizona's Case Cookus, Samford's Devlin Hodges, Eastern Washington's Gage Gubrud or San Diego's Anthony Lawrence?
10. The last three years, a coach has finished fifth, third and second in voting for the STATS FCS Eddie Robinson Award at two different schools. Who is he?
ANSWERS
1. Like North Dakota State, Georgia Southern won six FCS national titles, winning in back-to-back years three times. The Eagles now play on the FBS level.
2. After 22 seasons on the FBS level, Idaho has returned to the Big Sky Conference. North Alabama is transitioning into the FCS from Division II, playing as an independent this season before joining the Big South Conference in 2019.
3. City rivals Charleston Southern and The Citadel have a showdown in September, but The Citadel is the FCS team holding the date with defending FBS champion Alabama. The Bulldogs had the same opportunity against Clemson last season.
4. Jacksonville State has won 32 straight games in the Ohio Valley Conference, last losing to Eastern Illinois and Jimmy Garoppolo in 2013.
5. UC Davis wide receiver Keelan Doss averaged 10.5 receptions per game as a junior, catching 115 passes for 1,499 yards.
6. With six NFL Draft picks in the 2010s, MEAC member South Carolina State trails only Montana and Appalachian State, which both have seven.
7. Nine FCS schools share the Bulldogs nickname: Alabama A&M, Bryant, Butler, Drake, Gardner-Webb (Runnin' Bulldogs), Samford, South Carolina State, The Citadel and Yale.
8. Harvard and Yale are meeting for the 135th time at Fenway Park on Nov. 17. It will mark the 50th anniversary of the epic 1968 meeting, which famously ended in a 29-29 tie.
9. That was an impressive list of gunslingers, but, surprise, Anthony Lawrence from Pioneer Football League power San Diego has thrown 81 touchdowns - the most of returning FCS players.
10. Mike Houston has been on the cusp of winning the Eddie Robinson Award, finishing fifth at The Citadel in 2015, then third and second, respectively, the last two years at James Madison. Each team won a conference title and JMU was the 2016 national champ.
STARTER, BACKUP OR KEEP WORKING
So how did you do?
The questions were at a reasonable level. With six or more correct answers, consider yourself a starting player. Five right and you are on the two-deep. Less than half right, well, keep following the FCS.
July 10, 2018
(STATS) - The arrival of conference media days this month marks the unofficial start to the college football season, so it's time to get in the FCS game.
Sure, North Dakota State and James Madison have become the national powers, but how well do you know the national landscape?
Our 10-question quiz about the fast-approaching season will show if you're in the end zone or punting.
The answers follow, so don't scroll to them before it's time.
QUESTIONS
1. North Dakota State has won six of the last seven FCS national titles, tying for the most in history. Which program will the Bison try to break away from to establish a new record?
2. Name the program that has dropped back to the FCS level from the FBS and the program joining the FCS from the Division II ranks? You need both answers right.
3. For the ninth time in 10 seasons, an FCS program is playing the defending FBS champion. This year, the honor falls to which team: Charleston Southern or The Citadel?
4. Jacksonville State has the longest conference winning streak in the FCS. Is it 28, 30 or 32 games long?
5. This player led Division I in receptions per game and finished third in the STATS FCS Walter Payton Award voting last season. Who is this 2019 NFL Draft prospect?
6. From the subdivision, only Montana and former FCS program Appalachian State have had more NFL Draft picks in the 2010s than this surprising program, which produced its sixth selection this year. Is it Maine, South Carolina State or Tennessee State?
7. Let's see if you remember this question from last year: The FCS is played at 124 schools across 37 states and the District of Columbia. What is the most common nickname: Bears, Bulldogs or Tigers?
8. "The Game" turns 135 in 2018. Where are Ivy League rivals Harvard and Yale playing this year's matchup?
9. Who has thrown for the most touchdowns among returning FCS quarterbacks - Northern Arizona's Case Cookus, Samford's Devlin Hodges, Eastern Washington's Gage Gubrud or San Diego's Anthony Lawrence?
10. The last three years, a coach has finished fifth, third and second in voting for the STATS FCS Eddie Robinson Award at two different schools. Who is he?
ANSWERS
1. Like North Dakota State, Georgia Southern won six FCS national titles, winning in back-to-back years three times. The Eagles now play on the FBS level.
2. After 22 seasons on the FBS level, Idaho has returned to the Big Sky Conference. North Alabama is transitioning into the FCS from Division II, playing as an independent this season before joining the Big South Conference in 2019.
3. City rivals Charleston Southern and The Citadel have a showdown in September, but The Citadel is the FCS team holding the date with defending FBS champion Alabama. The Bulldogs had the same opportunity against Clemson last season.
4. Jacksonville State has won 32 straight games in the Ohio Valley Conference, last losing to Eastern Illinois and Jimmy Garoppolo in 2013.
5. UC Davis wide receiver Keelan Doss averaged 10.5 receptions per game as a junior, catching 115 passes for 1,499 yards.
6. With six NFL Draft picks in the 2010s, MEAC member South Carolina State trails only Montana and Appalachian State, which both have seven.
7. Nine FCS schools share the Bulldogs nickname: Alabama A&M, Bryant, Butler, Drake, Gardner-Webb (Runnin' Bulldogs), Samford, South Carolina State, The Citadel and Yale.
8. Harvard and Yale are meeting for the 135th time at Fenway Park on Nov. 17. It will mark the 50th anniversary of the epic 1968 meeting, which famously ended in a 29-29 tie.
9. That was an impressive list of gunslingers, but, surprise, Anthony Lawrence from Pioneer Football League power San Diego has thrown 81 touchdowns - the most of returning FCS players.
10. Mike Houston has been on the cusp of winning the Eddie Robinson Award, finishing fifth at The Citadel in 2015, then third and second, respectively, the last two years at James Madison. Each team won a conference title and JMU was the 2016 national champ.
STARTER, BACKUP OR KEEP WORKING
So how did you do?
The questions were at a reasonable level. With six or more correct answers, consider yourself a starting player. Five right and you are on the two-deep. Less than half right, well, keep following the FCS.
Handicapping Seattle (9)
July 10, 2018
The Seattle Seahawks have won at least nine games in each of the last six seasons, but there are legitimate questions as to whether or not the Seahawks will have a winning record in 2018. The Seahawks are coming off a 9-7 season and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2011.
The offseason didn’t go well for the Seahawks as they lost a number of high profile players, including Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Jimmy Graham. Let’s look at the schedule for the Seahawks for 2018 to see if they will go over or under their win total of nine.
2018 Seattle Seahawks Regular Season Win Total
Over 9 (-105)
Under 9 (-125)
2018 Seattle Seahawks Schedule Analysis
Sunday, Sept. 9, at Denver Broncos
The regular season opener for the Seahawks will not be easy, as the Broncos have a tough defense and an improved offense with Case Keenum under center. The last time the Seahawks played at Denver was in 2010 and it was a 31-14 loss. It may not be any different this time around.
Monday, Sept. 17, at Chicago Bears
The Seahawks could easily start the season 0-2, as the Bears are expected to be improved this season with Mitch Trubisky in his second season and this is a Monday Night game where the crowd will be all-in for a Chicago win.
Sunday, Sept. 23, vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Seahawks early season schedule is not easy and the Cowboys have a good offense led by Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Could the Seahawks actually start the season 0-3?
Sunday, Sept. 30, at Arizona Cardinals
The Seahawks have actually done quite well in Arizona in recent seasons, as they are 4-0-1 in their last five trips. This already feels like a must-win game for Seattle in Week 4.
Sunday, Oct. 7, vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are considered the best team in the NFC West, but this is a huge revenge game for the Seahawks, as they suffered their worst home loss under Pete Carroll last season.
Sunday, Oct. 14, vs. Oakland Raiders (London)
This is an interesting matchup in London, as the Seahawks take on an Oakland team coached by Jon Gruden. It is also a matchup against former teammate Marshawn Lynch.
Sunday, Oct. 21 BYE
Sunday, Oct. 28, at Detroit Lions
Did you know that the last time the Seahawks played in Detroit it was in 2012, also on October 28th? The Seahawks will probably be road underdogs in this one, but they are definitely capable of winning in Detroit.
Sunday, Nov. 4, vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are considered a serious contender in the AFC this season, but the Seahawks have won 11 of the last 15 meetings against the Chargers.
Sunday, Nov. 11, at Los Angeles Rams
The Seahawks will play six of their first nine games on the road this season and they may already be out of contention by the time they visit the Rams in November.
Thursday, Nov. 15, vs. Green Bay Packers
The Seahawks have home field advantage, but the Packers are considered one of the top teams in the NFC and both teams will be playing with short rest.
Sunday, Nov. 25, at Carolina Panthers
The Seahawks and Panthers always seem to play close games and most of the time the Seahawks come out on top. The Seahawks have won five of the last six meetings.
Sunday, Dec. 2, vs. San Francisco 49ers
This will be the first time the Seahawks will be seeing former teammate Richard Sherman in a 49ers uniform. If the Seahawks are still in contention, this will be a must-win home game.
Monday, Dec. 10, vs. Minnesota Vikings
This one takes place on Monday night, but the Vikings are considered the better team and it would not be a surprise to see them get the road win.
Sunday, Dec. 16, at San Francisco 49ers
This will be the second time in three weeks the 49ers and Seahawks will play. The Seahawks are 4-0 at Levi’s Stadium, winning by a combined margin of 88-42.
Sunday, Dec. 23, vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Is there any easy game on the schedule for the Seahawks in 2018? They have to play a Kansas City team that is considered one of the best in the AFC.
Sunday, Dec. 30, vs. Arizona Cardinals
The regular season finale for the Seahawks will be against the Cardinals and it will be the third time in the last four years the teams will close out the regular season against one another.
2018 Seattle Seahawks Regular Season Win Total Prediction
There are no soft spots on the schedule this season for Seattle and it is hard to see how they finish with a winning record. If you give the Seahawks the benefit of the doubt and everything goes right for them then a 10-6 season is possible, but if you think they are going to be worse on offense and much worse on defense, it is easy to see this team going 6-10. We’ll just split the difference, which means an 8-8 season and a team that goes under their win total of nine.
July 10, 2018
The Seattle Seahawks have won at least nine games in each of the last six seasons, but there are legitimate questions as to whether or not the Seahawks will have a winning record in 2018. The Seahawks are coming off a 9-7 season and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2011.
The offseason didn’t go well for the Seahawks as they lost a number of high profile players, including Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Jimmy Graham. Let’s look at the schedule for the Seahawks for 2018 to see if they will go over or under their win total of nine.
2018 Seattle Seahawks Regular Season Win Total
Over 9 (-105)
Under 9 (-125)
2018 Seattle Seahawks Schedule Analysis
Sunday, Sept. 9, at Denver Broncos
The regular season opener for the Seahawks will not be easy, as the Broncos have a tough defense and an improved offense with Case Keenum under center. The last time the Seahawks played at Denver was in 2010 and it was a 31-14 loss. It may not be any different this time around.
Monday, Sept. 17, at Chicago Bears
The Seahawks could easily start the season 0-2, as the Bears are expected to be improved this season with Mitch Trubisky in his second season and this is a Monday Night game where the crowd will be all-in for a Chicago win.
Sunday, Sept. 23, vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Seahawks early season schedule is not easy and the Cowboys have a good offense led by Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Could the Seahawks actually start the season 0-3?
Sunday, Sept. 30, at Arizona Cardinals
The Seahawks have actually done quite well in Arizona in recent seasons, as they are 4-0-1 in their last five trips. This already feels like a must-win game for Seattle in Week 4.
Sunday, Oct. 7, vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are considered the best team in the NFC West, but this is a huge revenge game for the Seahawks, as they suffered their worst home loss under Pete Carroll last season.
Sunday, Oct. 14, vs. Oakland Raiders (London)
This is an interesting matchup in London, as the Seahawks take on an Oakland team coached by Jon Gruden. It is also a matchup against former teammate Marshawn Lynch.
Sunday, Oct. 21 BYE
Sunday, Oct. 28, at Detroit Lions
Did you know that the last time the Seahawks played in Detroit it was in 2012, also on October 28th? The Seahawks will probably be road underdogs in this one, but they are definitely capable of winning in Detroit.
Sunday, Nov. 4, vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are considered a serious contender in the AFC this season, but the Seahawks have won 11 of the last 15 meetings against the Chargers.
Sunday, Nov. 11, at Los Angeles Rams
The Seahawks will play six of their first nine games on the road this season and they may already be out of contention by the time they visit the Rams in November.
Thursday, Nov. 15, vs. Green Bay Packers
The Seahawks have home field advantage, but the Packers are considered one of the top teams in the NFC and both teams will be playing with short rest.
Sunday, Nov. 25, at Carolina Panthers
The Seahawks and Panthers always seem to play close games and most of the time the Seahawks come out on top. The Seahawks have won five of the last six meetings.
Sunday, Dec. 2, vs. San Francisco 49ers
This will be the first time the Seahawks will be seeing former teammate Richard Sherman in a 49ers uniform. If the Seahawks are still in contention, this will be a must-win home game.
Monday, Dec. 10, vs. Minnesota Vikings
This one takes place on Monday night, but the Vikings are considered the better team and it would not be a surprise to see them get the road win.
Sunday, Dec. 16, at San Francisco 49ers
This will be the second time in three weeks the 49ers and Seahawks will play. The Seahawks are 4-0 at Levi’s Stadium, winning by a combined margin of 88-42.
Sunday, Dec. 23, vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Is there any easy game on the schedule for the Seahawks in 2018? They have to play a Kansas City team that is considered one of the best in the AFC.
Sunday, Dec. 30, vs. Arizona Cardinals
The regular season finale for the Seahawks will be against the Cardinals and it will be the third time in the last four years the teams will close out the regular season against one another.
2018 Seattle Seahawks Regular Season Win Total Prediction
There are no soft spots on the schedule this season for Seattle and it is hard to see how they finish with a winning record. If you give the Seahawks the benefit of the doubt and everything goes right for them then a 10-6 season is possible, but if you think they are going to be worse on offense and much worse on defense, it is easy to see this team going 6-10. We’ll just split the difference, which means an 8-8 season and a team that goes under their win total of nine.
Future Bets - AFC West
July 10, 2018
Is the KC/Denver Run Atop this Division Over?
Continuing on with my look at each NFL division for the upcoming year brings us to the AFC West today after covering the NFC's version of the West division last week. The AFC West appears the division most up for grabs from top to bottom according to the oddsmakers, as the gap between the favorite (L.A. Chargers) at +150, to the biggest underdog (Denver Broncos) at +500, is the smallest range of prices from top to bottom for any division.
And with each team in the AFC West having to go through the tough tests that teams from both the AFC North and aforementioned NFC West bring, chances are we see this division being hotly contested for much of the year.
Historically, the AFC West has been owned by either the Chiefs or Broncos this decade, as one of those two franchises have won this division every year beginning in 2010. Right now it's the Kansas City Chiefs who are the two-time defending champs, but they just made a big move at QB to go with their young face of the future in Patrick Mahomes.
Denver – who owned this division when Peyton Manning was in town – made a QB switch this offseason too as they brought in Case Keenum as more of a stop-gap guy while they wait for their young guy in Paxton Lynch to develop. So could this actually be the year we see a different franchise win the AFC West for the first time this decade? I think it just might be...
Odds to Win AFC West
L.A. Chargers (+150)
Kansas City Chiefs (+250)
Oakland Raiders (+350)
Denver Broncos (+500)
These odds may be the most condensed of any division future numbers, but I'm not sure the final result will end up being these four teams entering December all with a chance. Kansas City (+250) and Denver (+500) I grouped together earlier because of the QB switches they made this off-season and I do believe they are valid points to consider here.
Kansas City has more overall team talent but with Mahomes seeing his first significant time on an NFL field, chances are there will be some growing pains there. So more overall talent or not, I'm not sure the Chiefs deserve to be the second favorites here.
Denver's case is almost under the classification of being “the same, but different,” as their QB change involves a more journeyman guy in Case Keenum who had some great success as a starter a year ago. He's the classic “game manager” QB that needs a great defense to survive, and while Denver's defense still does resemble their dominant unit of a few years back, they just don't really have the teeth or strike as much fear in opponents anymore.
Offensively, Keenum is going to be counted on to produce more one way or another because he simply doesn't have the talent like Diggs, Thielen, Rudolph etc at all the skill positions that he had in Minnesota.
Keenum signing a two-year deal does tell you a bit of what Denver thinks of both their chances this year and the developmental timeline of Lynch in that they really don't expect much from Lynch for at least another year, and Keenum's two-year deal gives him time to work up a level of comfort with his new teammates, system, surroundings etc and look to peak in 2019.
So that leaves us with either Oakland (+350) or the Chargers (+150) as the 2018 AFC West winner and I really do believe one of these two teams will end up being division champs. As far as which one it is, I guess that's why they play the games on the field.
In terms of which one I'm backing here, I do actually believe the choice is a lot clearer than these bunched up odds would have you suggest. To me, it's the Chargers or nothing this year as they've got the most continuity going on the field overall, have got to have some good luck coming considering the bad luck they've had the past few years in terms of injuries and being on the wrong end of plenty one-possession games, and were just a single win away from getting to the top of the mountain a year ago.
If the Chargers can get bit a few fewer times by the injury bug and get a bounce or two to go their way in games that end up being victories, then the +150 price tag is more than enough value on what may be the best team in the division regardless, but is also the only one without any issues/distractions surrounding them.
In Kansas City and Denver it's all about the QB situation and discussing whether or not KC got the right guy in Mahomes, how long before Lynch sees the field in Denver, and news fodder like that.
For Oakland, it's all about the upcoming relocation to Las Vegas after this season and how will the players/fans react to this being the last year in the Bay. Adding in an (old) new coach in Jon Gruden doesn't exactly lessen the spotlight anymore on this Raiders organization in 2018, and teams with too much noise going on around them don't tend to succeed very often. Especially if that noise involves the team moving or potentially moving.
Just looking back at recent history, we've already had a few teams play their “lame duck” year in a particular city and not really fare all that well. In the year prior to relocating back to L.A. (2015-16), the Rams finished with a 7-9 SU record in St Louis, while the Chargers final season in San Diego (2016-17) saw them finish with a 5-11 SU mark. Neither of those teams exactly “knew” they were leaving like Oakland does, but I'm not sure that matters as the “chatter” will still be there.
It's not like the 1995 Cleveland Browns weren't affected by similar “chatter” when they went 5-11 SU before losing their franchise, as were the 1983 Baltimore Colts who finished 7-9 SU before vanishing in the night to Indianapolis. Relocation is a big distraction all the way around for an organization and I'm not looking to back Oakland in 2018 because of it.
On the field, Oakland has the guys to for sure make a run at a division crown, I just think all the noise about leaving Oakland will swallow up this team too much for them to produce results at the level needed.
The Chargers' Philip Rivers deserves another crack at making a run towards the Super Bowl and this Chargers team has the depth and talent to at least be considered a player in that realm in 2018. There are no more relocation issues to use as excuses for this team, and as long as guys like RB Melvin Gordon and WR Keenan Allen can get on the field for 16 games, this Chargers team is the one to beat in my eyes.
Best Bet: L.A. Chargers to win division (+150)
July 10, 2018
Is the KC/Denver Run Atop this Division Over?
Continuing on with my look at each NFL division for the upcoming year brings us to the AFC West today after covering the NFC's version of the West division last week. The AFC West appears the division most up for grabs from top to bottom according to the oddsmakers, as the gap between the favorite (L.A. Chargers) at +150, to the biggest underdog (Denver Broncos) at +500, is the smallest range of prices from top to bottom for any division.
And with each team in the AFC West having to go through the tough tests that teams from both the AFC North and aforementioned NFC West bring, chances are we see this division being hotly contested for much of the year.
Historically, the AFC West has been owned by either the Chiefs or Broncos this decade, as one of those two franchises have won this division every year beginning in 2010. Right now it's the Kansas City Chiefs who are the two-time defending champs, but they just made a big move at QB to go with their young face of the future in Patrick Mahomes.
Denver – who owned this division when Peyton Manning was in town – made a QB switch this offseason too as they brought in Case Keenum as more of a stop-gap guy while they wait for their young guy in Paxton Lynch to develop. So could this actually be the year we see a different franchise win the AFC West for the first time this decade? I think it just might be...
Odds to Win AFC West
L.A. Chargers (+150)
Kansas City Chiefs (+250)
Oakland Raiders (+350)
Denver Broncos (+500)
These odds may be the most condensed of any division future numbers, but I'm not sure the final result will end up being these four teams entering December all with a chance. Kansas City (+250) and Denver (+500) I grouped together earlier because of the QB switches they made this off-season and I do believe they are valid points to consider here.
Kansas City has more overall team talent but with Mahomes seeing his first significant time on an NFL field, chances are there will be some growing pains there. So more overall talent or not, I'm not sure the Chiefs deserve to be the second favorites here.
Denver's case is almost under the classification of being “the same, but different,” as their QB change involves a more journeyman guy in Case Keenum who had some great success as a starter a year ago. He's the classic “game manager” QB that needs a great defense to survive, and while Denver's defense still does resemble their dominant unit of a few years back, they just don't really have the teeth or strike as much fear in opponents anymore.
Offensively, Keenum is going to be counted on to produce more one way or another because he simply doesn't have the talent like Diggs, Thielen, Rudolph etc at all the skill positions that he had in Minnesota.
Keenum signing a two-year deal does tell you a bit of what Denver thinks of both their chances this year and the developmental timeline of Lynch in that they really don't expect much from Lynch for at least another year, and Keenum's two-year deal gives him time to work up a level of comfort with his new teammates, system, surroundings etc and look to peak in 2019.
So that leaves us with either Oakland (+350) or the Chargers (+150) as the 2018 AFC West winner and I really do believe one of these two teams will end up being division champs. As far as which one it is, I guess that's why they play the games on the field.
In terms of which one I'm backing here, I do actually believe the choice is a lot clearer than these bunched up odds would have you suggest. To me, it's the Chargers or nothing this year as they've got the most continuity going on the field overall, have got to have some good luck coming considering the bad luck they've had the past few years in terms of injuries and being on the wrong end of plenty one-possession games, and were just a single win away from getting to the top of the mountain a year ago.
If the Chargers can get bit a few fewer times by the injury bug and get a bounce or two to go their way in games that end up being victories, then the +150 price tag is more than enough value on what may be the best team in the division regardless, but is also the only one without any issues/distractions surrounding them.
In Kansas City and Denver it's all about the QB situation and discussing whether or not KC got the right guy in Mahomes, how long before Lynch sees the field in Denver, and news fodder like that.
For Oakland, it's all about the upcoming relocation to Las Vegas after this season and how will the players/fans react to this being the last year in the Bay. Adding in an (old) new coach in Jon Gruden doesn't exactly lessen the spotlight anymore on this Raiders organization in 2018, and teams with too much noise going on around them don't tend to succeed very often. Especially if that noise involves the team moving or potentially moving.
Just looking back at recent history, we've already had a few teams play their “lame duck” year in a particular city and not really fare all that well. In the year prior to relocating back to L.A. (2015-16), the Rams finished with a 7-9 SU record in St Louis, while the Chargers final season in San Diego (2016-17) saw them finish with a 5-11 SU mark. Neither of those teams exactly “knew” they were leaving like Oakland does, but I'm not sure that matters as the “chatter” will still be there.
It's not like the 1995 Cleveland Browns weren't affected by similar “chatter” when they went 5-11 SU before losing their franchise, as were the 1983 Baltimore Colts who finished 7-9 SU before vanishing in the night to Indianapolis. Relocation is a big distraction all the way around for an organization and I'm not looking to back Oakland in 2018 because of it.
On the field, Oakland has the guys to for sure make a run at a division crown, I just think all the noise about leaving Oakland will swallow up this team too much for them to produce results at the level needed.
The Chargers' Philip Rivers deserves another crack at making a run towards the Super Bowl and this Chargers team has the depth and talent to at least be considered a player in that realm in 2018. There are no more relocation issues to use as excuses for this team, and as long as guys like RB Melvin Gordon and WR Keenan Allen can get on the field for 16 games, this Chargers team is the one to beat in my eyes.
Best Bet: L.A. Chargers to win division (+150)
Teams to Watch - NFC
July 10, 2018
Several up-and-comers made their move in the National Football Conference last season, and their offseason transactions have given them staying power. Five teams that didn’t reach the postseason in 2016 qualified last season, one of those being the eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. Thus, Philly is the favorite to repeat as conference champions, but like we saw, anything can happen.
It’s easy to go with the defending champs after posting a league-best win total and claiming their first Super Bowl title – with a backup quarterback no less. But it’s much tougher to win with a target on your back. And the NFC is stacked in 2018. The Rams reached the postseason for the first time in 13 years and strengthened their defense during the offseason to complement the NFL’s highest scoring offense.
Minnesota landed Kirk Cousins in an effort to lift them to Super Bowl glory. And Green Bay will have two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers back behind center after they stumbled without him in 2017.
NFC Odds
Philadelphia Eagles +365
Los Angeles Rams +498
Minnesota Vikings +535
Green Bay Packers +700
New Orleans Saints +850
Atlanta Falcons +1000
San Francisco 49ers +1385
New York Giants +1430
Dallas Cowboys +1800
Carolina Panthers +2300
Detroit Lions +3150
Seattle Seahawks +3500
Washington Redskins +4000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4350
Chicago Bears +6300
Arizona Cardinals +7200
NFC TEAMS TO WATCH
Philadelphia Eagles
Current Odds: +365
With all the contributing pieces returning, the Eagles are in a good spot for another run at a Super Bowl and they hit the board as the favorite at +365. Carson Wentz is back from his knee surgery that cost him the final few games of the regular season and the postseason run. Wentz led the offense with 33 touchdown passes before getting hurt in a Week 13 matchup with the Rams. And it looked like he took any championship hopes with him. Nick Foles got all the glory leading the Eagles to a Super Bowl win over the Pats, earning MVP honors along the way. And he’s back to help form the best quarterback duo in the league.Philly snuck up on the pack last season going from worst in the NFC East in 2016 to Super Bowl champions. With that comes the added pressure of trying to repeat while playing a first place schedule. Only one NFC team has repeated since 1998 and the field is as strong as ever. A good sign for the Eagles is that they don’t rely on one player. We saw them overcome the loss of Wentz, Jason Peters and Jordan Hicks to win it all last year.
Atlanta Falcons
Current Odds: +1000
There is value with Atlanta at +1000 to win the NFC. The Falcons are the only NFC team to reach the postseason in each of the last two seasons and they are just two years removed from a Super Bowl trip. They led the league in scoring in 2016 only to have a significant drop last season under first year OC Steve Sarkisian. The addition of Calvin Ridley to go along with Julio Jones should put some pop back in the passing game and Sarkisian should feel more comfortable after taking over for Kyle Shanahan. This is his offense now. The scary part about the Falcons is their defense. Dan Quinn built a beast during his days in Seattle and he has Atlanta looking like a top unit. And that’s necessary in the NFC South.
New Orleans Saints
Current Odds: +850
Fellow South member New Orleans also looks scary good heading into 2018. After three straight seven-win seasons, the Saints busted loose last year to win 11 games and the division. They have a solid group of young players acquired through the draft and Drew Brees is showing no signs of slowing down at his advanced age. They had the top two rookies from each side of the ball last season and the defense improved significantly. Brees needs to stay healthy since there is no Plan B in place yet, and the Saints could be a bargain at +850.
Minnesota Vikings
Current Odds: +535
Minnesota landed the biggest free agent prize in Kirk Cousins and they could be the scariest team in the conference. The offense wasn’t poor under Case Keenum last season, but the addition of a high-caliber signal caller could be what gets them to their first Super Bowl since the 1976 season. The Vikings had the NFL’s stingiest defense last season and they’ve been strong under Mike Zimmer. They should again be good at stopping opponents. Cousins has a better supporting cast than he had at Washington with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs among the best pass-catchings duos in the league.
Los Angeles Rams
Current Odds: +498
It was a season to remember for the Rams under first-year head coach Sean McVay. They had a seven-game improvement from 2016, won their first division title since 2003 and ended a 12-year playoff drought. Sustaining success is much tougher but the Rams have a core group that could rule the NFC West for a few years. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley had breakout years as the Rams went from the lowest scoring team in 2016 to the highest scoring club last season. Adding Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib will also help a defense that ranked 19th in yards allowed per game.
July 10, 2018
Several up-and-comers made their move in the National Football Conference last season, and their offseason transactions have given them staying power. Five teams that didn’t reach the postseason in 2016 qualified last season, one of those being the eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. Thus, Philly is the favorite to repeat as conference champions, but like we saw, anything can happen.
It’s easy to go with the defending champs after posting a league-best win total and claiming their first Super Bowl title – with a backup quarterback no less. But it’s much tougher to win with a target on your back. And the NFC is stacked in 2018. The Rams reached the postseason for the first time in 13 years and strengthened their defense during the offseason to complement the NFL’s highest scoring offense.
Minnesota landed Kirk Cousins in an effort to lift them to Super Bowl glory. And Green Bay will have two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers back behind center after they stumbled without him in 2017.
NFC Odds
Philadelphia Eagles +365
Los Angeles Rams +498
Minnesota Vikings +535
Green Bay Packers +700
New Orleans Saints +850
Atlanta Falcons +1000
San Francisco 49ers +1385
New York Giants +1430
Dallas Cowboys +1800
Carolina Panthers +2300
Detroit Lions +3150
Seattle Seahawks +3500
Washington Redskins +4000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4350
Chicago Bears +6300
Arizona Cardinals +7200
NFC TEAMS TO WATCH
Philadelphia Eagles
Current Odds: +365
With all the contributing pieces returning, the Eagles are in a good spot for another run at a Super Bowl and they hit the board as the favorite at +365. Carson Wentz is back from his knee surgery that cost him the final few games of the regular season and the postseason run. Wentz led the offense with 33 touchdown passes before getting hurt in a Week 13 matchup with the Rams. And it looked like he took any championship hopes with him. Nick Foles got all the glory leading the Eagles to a Super Bowl win over the Pats, earning MVP honors along the way. And he’s back to help form the best quarterback duo in the league.Philly snuck up on the pack last season going from worst in the NFC East in 2016 to Super Bowl champions. With that comes the added pressure of trying to repeat while playing a first place schedule. Only one NFC team has repeated since 1998 and the field is as strong as ever. A good sign for the Eagles is that they don’t rely on one player. We saw them overcome the loss of Wentz, Jason Peters and Jordan Hicks to win it all last year.
Atlanta Falcons
Current Odds: +1000
There is value with Atlanta at +1000 to win the NFC. The Falcons are the only NFC team to reach the postseason in each of the last two seasons and they are just two years removed from a Super Bowl trip. They led the league in scoring in 2016 only to have a significant drop last season under first year OC Steve Sarkisian. The addition of Calvin Ridley to go along with Julio Jones should put some pop back in the passing game and Sarkisian should feel more comfortable after taking over for Kyle Shanahan. This is his offense now. The scary part about the Falcons is their defense. Dan Quinn built a beast during his days in Seattle and he has Atlanta looking like a top unit. And that’s necessary in the NFC South.
New Orleans Saints
Current Odds: +850
Fellow South member New Orleans also looks scary good heading into 2018. After three straight seven-win seasons, the Saints busted loose last year to win 11 games and the division. They have a solid group of young players acquired through the draft and Drew Brees is showing no signs of slowing down at his advanced age. They had the top two rookies from each side of the ball last season and the defense improved significantly. Brees needs to stay healthy since there is no Plan B in place yet, and the Saints could be a bargain at +850.
Minnesota Vikings
Current Odds: +535
Minnesota landed the biggest free agent prize in Kirk Cousins and they could be the scariest team in the conference. The offense wasn’t poor under Case Keenum last season, but the addition of a high-caliber signal caller could be what gets them to their first Super Bowl since the 1976 season. The Vikings had the NFL’s stingiest defense last season and they’ve been strong under Mike Zimmer. They should again be good at stopping opponents. Cousins has a better supporting cast than he had at Washington with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs among the best pass-catchings duos in the league.
Los Angeles Rams
Current Odds: +498
It was a season to remember for the Rams under first-year head coach Sean McVay. They had a seven-game improvement from 2016, won their first division title since 2003 and ended a 12-year playoff drought. Sustaining success is much tougher but the Rams have a core group that could rule the NFC West for a few years. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley had breakout years as the Rams went from the lowest scoring team in 2016 to the highest scoring club last season. Adding Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib will also help a defense that ranked 19th in yards allowed per game.
NFL notebook: Bills' McCoy denies domestic violence accusations
July 10, 2018
Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy denied accusations of domestic violence, child abuse, animal cruelty and performance-enhancing drug use in a statement posted on his Instagram account on Tuesday.
Earlier on Tuesday, a woman posted a graphic image that showed McCoy's reported former girlfriend, Delicia Cordon, bruised and bloodied. The post also accused the 29-year-old McCoy of beating his dog until it developed kidney failure and "viciously" beating his son.
"For the record, the totally baseless and offensive claims made against me today on social media are completely false," McCoy wrote. "Furthermore, I have not had any direct contact with any of the people involved in months."
Police in Milton, Ga., released a statement in response to the incident, detailing how officers responded to a home invasion at 3:18 a.m. Tuesday, although McCoy was not mentioned by name.
"The preliminary investigation indicates that this residence was specifically targeted by the suspect or suspects, and not a random incident," the statement read. "When officers arrived they found one victim who had been physically assaulted by a lone intruder. During the altercation, the suspect demanded specific items from the victim. An adult female victim was treated and released at North Fulton Regional Hospital. A second adult female victim also sustained a minor injury during the incident."
--The NFL Players Association filed a grievance against the league's new national anthem policy.
NFL commissioner Roger Goodell announced in May that the league would enact a national anthem policy for the 2018 season that requires players and league personnel to either stand for the anthem or remain in the locker room. The policy subjects teams to a fine if a player or any other personnel do not show respect for the anthem.
"Our union filed its non-injury grievance today on behalf of all players challenging the NFL's recently imposed anthem policy," the NFLPA said in a statement. "The union's claim is that this new policy, imposed by the NFL's governing body without consultation with the NFLPA, is inconsistent with the collective bargaining agreement and infringes on player rights.
"In advance of our filing today, we proposed to the NFL to begin confidential discussions with the NFLPA Executive Committee to find a solution to this issue instead of immediately proceeding with litigation. The NFL has agreed to proceed with those discussions and we look forward to starting them soon."
--Former NFL cornerback Brandon Browner was charged with multiple felonies, including attempted murder.
Police in La Verne (Calif.) also charged Browner with three other felonies -- robbery, burglary and false imprisonment -- in the wake of his arrest Sunday for allegedly breaking into a home of an ex-girlfriend who has a restraining order against him.
Browner also faces two misdemeanor charges of child endangerment for allegedly attacking the victim with her two children present. He was scheduled to be arraigned Tuesday.
A Super Bowl winner with both the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, Brown could face a possible maximum life sentence in prison if convicted.
--Former Virginia Tech cornerback Adonis Alexander will not have to worry about one issue entering Wednesday's NFL Supplemental Draft.
Alexander, one of five players available in the draft, received a clean bill on his drug tests, according to Mike Garafolo of the NFL Network.
There have been character concerns surrounding Alexander, who was dismissed from Virginia Tech in May due to academics. Alexander also was arrested on a marijuana-related charge in 2016, but he has passed all of his drug tests over the past eight months, Garafolo reported.
Alexander, Western Michigan cornerback Sam Beal and Mississippi State safety Brandon Bryant are considered the top players in the supplemental draft. Oregon State linebacker Bright Ugwoegbu and Grand Valley State running back Martayveus Carter are also available.
--New Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper wants to create a more open "family" atmosphere in the wake of the troubles that surrounded previous owner Jerry Richardson.
Tepper addressed this topic, the Richardson statue outside Bank of America Stadium and the team's coaching staff during Tuesday's introductory press conference with reporters.
"I like to have an open environment. Where everybody feels safe like a family," said Tepper, the founder of global hedge fund Appaloosa Management, based in Miami Beach, Fla. He paid $2.275 billion for the right to own the team.
The Panthers came under fire in December when Sports Illustrated published a report alleging that Richardson was accused of racial and sexual harassment. The 81-year-old Richardson, who elected to sell the team amid a league investigation, was fined $2.75 million by the NFL on June 28.
Arizona Cardinals president Michael Bidwill weighed in on the recent alcohol-related arrest of general manager Steve Keim, vowing there will be consequences for what he termed "inexcusable" behavior.
Bidwill told radio station KFYI on Tuesday that Keim made an "enormous mistake," referring to the general manager's arrest on charges of driving under the influence in Chandler, Ariz., on Wednesday.
"First of all, I'm extremely disappointed," said Bidwill. "It's inexcusable. He did bring it to our attention right away that night and has been extremely remorseful and contrite. He's taken steps to make things right, but the reality is that there is a process in place that the league has and there are going to be consequences here."
Keim could be subject to disciplinary action for a violation of the NFL policy on personal conduct. More details from the incident became available Tuesday with the release of the police report, which noted that Keim refused to participate in a number of sobriety tests. Keim willingly provided his name to officers, according to the report, but he identified himself as the team's director of security.
--DeMarco Murray was quite complimentary of both fellow running back Derrick Henry and quarterback Marcus Mariota when asked about their respective futures with the Tennessee Titans.
Murray, who was released by the Titans in March, addressed both players when talking to ESPN's Adam Schefter recently.
"I think Derrick's a smart guy. He's a fast guy, very physical, athletic, and now that I'm not there I think he can hone in on being the guy," the 30-year-old Murray said, via Titans Wire. "And if they use him the right way and if he can consistently be the every down back, I think he has a great future, a bright future."
Titans offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur told reporters last month that the running game will remain the focal point of the offense with free-agent signee Dion Lewis joining incumbent starter Henry in the backfield.
--Washington Redskins rookie running back Derrius Guice continued his generous offseason by surprising his mother with a new car.
Guice, who was selected in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft, shared a video on Twitter of his mother's reaction as he arrived at her Baton Rouge, La., home in a white Jaguar SUV with a bow on the hood.
His mother, Beulah, could barely contain herself before her son christened the car with a bottle of champagne.
Guice was raised by his mother after his father was murdered when he was young. The 21-year-old Guice's most recent gift comes on the heels of raising money for cancer research and taking random Redskins fans to the movies.
--New Orleans Saints stars Alvin Kamara and Marshon Lattimore are looking to elevate the bar after becoming the first teammates since 1967 to win NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.
"We talk about it all the time, we're just trying to be the best," the 22-year-old Lattimore said, via the New Orleans Advocate. "We won rookie of the year, now we're trying to win Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Player of the Year."
Lattimore, a cornerback, is focusing his attention on his technique as opposed to "training for the 40" at the combine like he did prior to the 2017 draft.
"That process, the draft-combine-pro day, it's a tiring process," Kamara said. "It's hard, coming from college, transitioning from being an amateur to a pro. It's hard, there's some growing pains. I was learning as I go, but now I have some experience, I know how to manage my time."
--Tony Romo may have retired from playing in the NFL, but that doesn't mean he is through with competitive sports.
The former Dallas Cowboys quarterback and current CBS analyst matched his old jersey number by breezing to a staggering nine-stroke win at the Racine Tri-Course Amateur Championship. He also won the tournament in 2004.
"I stayed aggressive," Romo told The (Racine) Journal Times. "I took mostly conservative lines and aggressive swings, and that's the approach you take when you have a lead. When you're hitting it as solid as I've been hitting it, you can trust it -- commit to the swing and hit it.
"I was able to do that throughout the week. It was hard to do when you're not hitting it where you're aiming, but I was (doing that) this week."
-- New York Giants defensive tackle A.J. Francis went on a profane tirade on Twitter after the Transportation Security Administration allegedly left open the urn carrying his mother's ashes.
Carrie Leanne Francis died on June 26, according to a post on her son's Instagram account. A.J. Francis posted a picture Monday of his clothes covered with what appeared to be ashes in his suitcase along with a notice of inspection from TSA.
"Hey you (expletive) at TSA next time you (expletive) feel the need to go thru my mother's ashes for no reason, make sure you close it back so her remains aren't spilled on all my clothes... the least you pieces of garbage can do is your (expletive) job," the 28-year-old Francis said in a tweet.
AskTSA responded to Francis' complaints with an explanation, apology and condolences.
July 10, 2018
Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy denied accusations of domestic violence, child abuse, animal cruelty and performance-enhancing drug use in a statement posted on his Instagram account on Tuesday.
Earlier on Tuesday, a woman posted a graphic image that showed McCoy's reported former girlfriend, Delicia Cordon, bruised and bloodied. The post also accused the 29-year-old McCoy of beating his dog until it developed kidney failure and "viciously" beating his son.
"For the record, the totally baseless and offensive claims made against me today on social media are completely false," McCoy wrote. "Furthermore, I have not had any direct contact with any of the people involved in months."
Police in Milton, Ga., released a statement in response to the incident, detailing how officers responded to a home invasion at 3:18 a.m. Tuesday, although McCoy was not mentioned by name.
"The preliminary investigation indicates that this residence was specifically targeted by the suspect or suspects, and not a random incident," the statement read. "When officers arrived they found one victim who had been physically assaulted by a lone intruder. During the altercation, the suspect demanded specific items from the victim. An adult female victim was treated and released at North Fulton Regional Hospital. A second adult female victim also sustained a minor injury during the incident."
--The NFL Players Association filed a grievance against the league's new national anthem policy.
NFL commissioner Roger Goodell announced in May that the league would enact a national anthem policy for the 2018 season that requires players and league personnel to either stand for the anthem or remain in the locker room. The policy subjects teams to a fine if a player or any other personnel do not show respect for the anthem.
"Our union filed its non-injury grievance today on behalf of all players challenging the NFL's recently imposed anthem policy," the NFLPA said in a statement. "The union's claim is that this new policy, imposed by the NFL's governing body without consultation with the NFLPA, is inconsistent with the collective bargaining agreement and infringes on player rights.
"In advance of our filing today, we proposed to the NFL to begin confidential discussions with the NFLPA Executive Committee to find a solution to this issue instead of immediately proceeding with litigation. The NFL has agreed to proceed with those discussions and we look forward to starting them soon."
--Former NFL cornerback Brandon Browner was charged with multiple felonies, including attempted murder.
Police in La Verne (Calif.) also charged Browner with three other felonies -- robbery, burglary and false imprisonment -- in the wake of his arrest Sunday for allegedly breaking into a home of an ex-girlfriend who has a restraining order against him.
Browner also faces two misdemeanor charges of child endangerment for allegedly attacking the victim with her two children present. He was scheduled to be arraigned Tuesday.
A Super Bowl winner with both the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, Brown could face a possible maximum life sentence in prison if convicted.
--Former Virginia Tech cornerback Adonis Alexander will not have to worry about one issue entering Wednesday's NFL Supplemental Draft.
Alexander, one of five players available in the draft, received a clean bill on his drug tests, according to Mike Garafolo of the NFL Network.
There have been character concerns surrounding Alexander, who was dismissed from Virginia Tech in May due to academics. Alexander also was arrested on a marijuana-related charge in 2016, but he has passed all of his drug tests over the past eight months, Garafolo reported.
Alexander, Western Michigan cornerback Sam Beal and Mississippi State safety Brandon Bryant are considered the top players in the supplemental draft. Oregon State linebacker Bright Ugwoegbu and Grand Valley State running back Martayveus Carter are also available.
--New Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper wants to create a more open "family" atmosphere in the wake of the troubles that surrounded previous owner Jerry Richardson.
Tepper addressed this topic, the Richardson statue outside Bank of America Stadium and the team's coaching staff during Tuesday's introductory press conference with reporters.
"I like to have an open environment. Where everybody feels safe like a family," said Tepper, the founder of global hedge fund Appaloosa Management, based in Miami Beach, Fla. He paid $2.275 billion for the right to own the team.
The Panthers came under fire in December when Sports Illustrated published a report alleging that Richardson was accused of racial and sexual harassment. The 81-year-old Richardson, who elected to sell the team amid a league investigation, was fined $2.75 million by the NFL on June 28.
Arizona Cardinals president Michael Bidwill weighed in on the recent alcohol-related arrest of general manager Steve Keim, vowing there will be consequences for what he termed "inexcusable" behavior.
Bidwill told radio station KFYI on Tuesday that Keim made an "enormous mistake," referring to the general manager's arrest on charges of driving under the influence in Chandler, Ariz., on Wednesday.
"First of all, I'm extremely disappointed," said Bidwill. "It's inexcusable. He did bring it to our attention right away that night and has been extremely remorseful and contrite. He's taken steps to make things right, but the reality is that there is a process in place that the league has and there are going to be consequences here."
Keim could be subject to disciplinary action for a violation of the NFL policy on personal conduct. More details from the incident became available Tuesday with the release of the police report, which noted that Keim refused to participate in a number of sobriety tests. Keim willingly provided his name to officers, according to the report, but he identified himself as the team's director of security.
--DeMarco Murray was quite complimentary of both fellow running back Derrick Henry and quarterback Marcus Mariota when asked about their respective futures with the Tennessee Titans.
Murray, who was released by the Titans in March, addressed both players when talking to ESPN's Adam Schefter recently.
"I think Derrick's a smart guy. He's a fast guy, very physical, athletic, and now that I'm not there I think he can hone in on being the guy," the 30-year-old Murray said, via Titans Wire. "And if they use him the right way and if he can consistently be the every down back, I think he has a great future, a bright future."
Titans offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur told reporters last month that the running game will remain the focal point of the offense with free-agent signee Dion Lewis joining incumbent starter Henry in the backfield.
--Washington Redskins rookie running back Derrius Guice continued his generous offseason by surprising his mother with a new car.
Guice, who was selected in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft, shared a video on Twitter of his mother's reaction as he arrived at her Baton Rouge, La., home in a white Jaguar SUV with a bow on the hood.
His mother, Beulah, could barely contain herself before her son christened the car with a bottle of champagne.
Guice was raised by his mother after his father was murdered when he was young. The 21-year-old Guice's most recent gift comes on the heels of raising money for cancer research and taking random Redskins fans to the movies.
--New Orleans Saints stars Alvin Kamara and Marshon Lattimore are looking to elevate the bar after becoming the first teammates since 1967 to win NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.
"We talk about it all the time, we're just trying to be the best," the 22-year-old Lattimore said, via the New Orleans Advocate. "We won rookie of the year, now we're trying to win Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Player of the Year."
Lattimore, a cornerback, is focusing his attention on his technique as opposed to "training for the 40" at the combine like he did prior to the 2017 draft.
"That process, the draft-combine-pro day, it's a tiring process," Kamara said. "It's hard, coming from college, transitioning from being an amateur to a pro. It's hard, there's some growing pains. I was learning as I go, but now I have some experience, I know how to manage my time."
--Tony Romo may have retired from playing in the NFL, but that doesn't mean he is through with competitive sports.
The former Dallas Cowboys quarterback and current CBS analyst matched his old jersey number by breezing to a staggering nine-stroke win at the Racine Tri-Course Amateur Championship. He also won the tournament in 2004.
"I stayed aggressive," Romo told The (Racine) Journal Times. "I took mostly conservative lines and aggressive swings, and that's the approach you take when you have a lead. When you're hitting it as solid as I've been hitting it, you can trust it -- commit to the swing and hit it.
"I was able to do that throughout the week. It was hard to do when you're not hitting it where you're aiming, but I was (doing that) this week."
-- New York Giants defensive tackle A.J. Francis went on a profane tirade on Twitter after the Transportation Security Administration allegedly left open the urn carrying his mother's ashes.
Carrie Leanne Francis died on June 26, according to a post on her son's Instagram account. A.J. Francis posted a picture Monday of his clothes covered with what appeared to be ashes in his suitcase along with a notice of inspection from TSA.
"Hey you (expletive) at TSA next time you (expletive) feel the need to go thru my mother's ashes for no reason, make sure you close it back so her remains aren't spilled on all my clothes... the least you pieces of garbage can do is your (expletive) job," the 28-year-old Francis said in a tweet.
AskTSA responded to Francis' complaints with an explanation, apology and condolences.
2018 Predictions - SEC
July 10, 2018
College Football Predictions: Southeastern Conference
While college football has a huge following all across the country, it is the south that is perhaps home to the most fanatical fans of the game. In some parts, anything less than a National Championship is considered a total failure. It should come as no surprise that the southern states have become breeding grounds for the best players in the college game while also having arguably the best conference in college football for years now.
The SEC is that conference, and it is home to the current National Champion, the Alabama Crimson Tide, as well as last year’s runner-up, the Georgia Bulldogs. Both of those team’s figure to be contenders again this season, but can any other team in the SEC touch them?
Let’s take a closer look.
SEC CONFERENCE - ODDS TO WIN
Alabama: +100
Arkansas: +5000
Auburn: +650
Florida: +800
Georgia: +250
Kentucky: +8000
LSU: +1000
Mississippi State: +1200
Missouri: +2500
Ole Miss: +6500
South Carolina: +1600
Tennessee: +2500
Texas A&M: +1300
Vanderbilt: +12000
SEC East Preview and Predictions
The Georgia Bulldogs made a huge breakthrough in Coach Kirby Smart’s second year in charge, making it all the way to the National Championship Game. As good as the Dawgs were last season, it is worth remembering that they were a team stacked with an elite class of returning seniors. Most of those guys will be plying their trade in the NFL this season, which means that there are going to be a lot of holes to plug, especially on the defensive side of the football. It certainly helps that the incoming recruiting class was about the best on paper. The East is still Georgia’s to lose.
The South Carolina Gamecocks would appear to be the biggest challenger for Georgia in the East, and they can get a leg up on the defending champs if they can beat them in Week 2 of the season. This is a team very much on the rise, and if they can take another step forward this season, they could prove to be serious challengers to the East crown.
The Florida Gators had an awful season in 2017 but have a new coaching staff in place who have some very nice pieces to work with. Dan Mullen will make this team better quite quickly but asking him to turn them into a division winner this season is probably asking way too much.
That should be your top 3 in the SEC East.
SEC West Preview and Predictions
Let’s be perfectly clear here, Alabama are National Champions for a reason. They have the best coach in the college game, and are able to keep reloading year after year, regardless of how many players they lose to the NFL draft. The Crimson Tide look like a shoe-in to win the SEC West, although there are some questions at the QB spot. Tua Tagovailoa will likely steal the spot from Jalen Hurts after his amazing second half performance last season.
Joe Moorhead will be the new man in charge at the Mississippi State Bulldogs, and it’s fair to suggest that he is walking into a great situation, with 16 starters returning to the fold. Let’s not forget that this is a team that won 9 games last season. If Moorhead can get this group to buy into his system early, they could prove to be a major threat.
The Auburn Tigers would certainly appear to be the main contenders here, especially when you consider that they won the West last season before losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. They will be coming into this season with a bit of a chip on their shoulder, and they will know that they will need to win their games against Georgia and Alabama if they are to be playoff bound this year.
That rounds out your top 3 in the SEC Wes
July 10, 2018
College Football Predictions: Southeastern Conference
While college football has a huge following all across the country, it is the south that is perhaps home to the most fanatical fans of the game. In some parts, anything less than a National Championship is considered a total failure. It should come as no surprise that the southern states have become breeding grounds for the best players in the college game while also having arguably the best conference in college football for years now.
The SEC is that conference, and it is home to the current National Champion, the Alabama Crimson Tide, as well as last year’s runner-up, the Georgia Bulldogs. Both of those team’s figure to be contenders again this season, but can any other team in the SEC touch them?
Let’s take a closer look.
SEC CONFERENCE - ODDS TO WIN
Alabama: +100
Arkansas: +5000
Auburn: +650
Florida: +800
Georgia: +250
Kentucky: +8000
LSU: +1000
Mississippi State: +1200
Missouri: +2500
Ole Miss: +6500
South Carolina: +1600
Tennessee: +2500
Texas A&M: +1300
Vanderbilt: +12000
SEC East Preview and Predictions
The Georgia Bulldogs made a huge breakthrough in Coach Kirby Smart’s second year in charge, making it all the way to the National Championship Game. As good as the Dawgs were last season, it is worth remembering that they were a team stacked with an elite class of returning seniors. Most of those guys will be plying their trade in the NFL this season, which means that there are going to be a lot of holes to plug, especially on the defensive side of the football. It certainly helps that the incoming recruiting class was about the best on paper. The East is still Georgia’s to lose.
The South Carolina Gamecocks would appear to be the biggest challenger for Georgia in the East, and they can get a leg up on the defending champs if they can beat them in Week 2 of the season. This is a team very much on the rise, and if they can take another step forward this season, they could prove to be serious challengers to the East crown.
The Florida Gators had an awful season in 2017 but have a new coaching staff in place who have some very nice pieces to work with. Dan Mullen will make this team better quite quickly but asking him to turn them into a division winner this season is probably asking way too much.
That should be your top 3 in the SEC East.
SEC West Preview and Predictions
Let’s be perfectly clear here, Alabama are National Champions for a reason. They have the best coach in the college game, and are able to keep reloading year after year, regardless of how many players they lose to the NFL draft. The Crimson Tide look like a shoe-in to win the SEC West, although there are some questions at the QB spot. Tua Tagovailoa will likely steal the spot from Jalen Hurts after his amazing second half performance last season.
Joe Moorhead will be the new man in charge at the Mississippi State Bulldogs, and it’s fair to suggest that he is walking into a great situation, with 16 starters returning to the fold. Let’s not forget that this is a team that won 9 games last season. If Moorhead can get this group to buy into his system early, they could prove to be a major threat.
The Auburn Tigers would certainly appear to be the main contenders here, especially when you consider that they won the West last season before losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. They will be coming into this season with a bit of a chip on their shoulder, and they will know that they will need to win their games against Georgia and Alabama if they are to be playoff bound this year.
That rounds out your top 3 in the SEC Wes
Handicapping Michigan (8.5)
July 11, 2018
The Michigan Wolverines are coming off a very disappointing 2017 season, but they bring back 18 starters for 2018 and expectations are very high for Jim Harbaugh’s squad.
The pressure is mounting on Harbaugh to deliver, as Michigan is 1-5 under Harbaugh against their top rivals and Michigan has yet to play in the Big Ten title game under Harbaugh.
How successful the Wolverines are in 2018 could be determined by how well new quarterback Shea Patterson plays. He is an Ole Miss transfer who takes over the starting job.
Let’s look at Michigan’s schedule for 2018 to see if they will go over or under their win total of 8.5.
2018 Michigan Wolverines Regular Season Win Total
Over 8.5 (-110)
Under 8.5 (-120)
2018 Michigan Wolverines Schedule Analysis
Sept. 1 at Notre Dame
You can make a strong case that the loser of this game will have no real chance to make the College Football Playoffs. Harbaugh will need to have Patterson ready because Michigan can’t win this game simply with defense.
Sept. 8 vs. Western Michigan
These teams haven’t met since 2011 and it has been a one-sided series, as the Broncos have never beaten the Wolverines. That shouldn’t change this season.
Sept. 15 vs. SMU
The Mustangs are going to score with new head coach Sonny Dykes in charge but they won’t stop anyone. Michigan’s defense is very good and SMU may score some points, but this will still be a Michigan blowout.
Sept. 22 vs. Nebraska
The Cornhuskers have a new head coach in Scott Frost and it may take him some time to turn things around at Nebraska. It is hard to see the Cornhuskers winning this one in the Big House.
Sept. 29 at Northwestern
The Wildcats may not have starting quarterback Clayton Thorson as he tore his ACL in last year’s bowl game and may not be ready to return yet. Michigan has won the last five in this series and they should make it six straight this year.
Oct. 6 vs. Maryland
This should be a name the score game for Michigan, as they have won the last three matchups against the Terps by a combined margin of 109 points.
Oct. 13 vs. Wisconsin
The first huge Big 10 game of the season for Michigan is at home as they host the Badgers. These teams are usually tight, but the Wolverines will have the home field advantage and should get the win.
Oct. 20 at Michigan State
The Wolverines gave away last year’s game so they will be playing with revenge, but it won’t be easy on the road against a talented Spartans squad that returns 21 starters.
Nov. 3 vs. Penn State
This looks to be a good one, as two years ago it was Michigan winning big at home, but last year it was the Nittany Lions winning big at home. These teams are very evenly matched and this game could come down to the final possession.
Nov. 10 at Rutgers
This is a letdown spot for Michigan, but it shouldn’t matter. The last time Michigan visited Rutgers they won 78-0.
Nov. 17 vs. Indiana
The Wolverines have won the last 22 games against Indiana going back to 1987. The last three meetings in the series have been close, but this one is in Ann Arbor, so the Wolverines should win easily.
Nov. 24 at Ohio State
This game could decide the Big Ten East Division. The Wolverines will likely be listed as road dogs against their hated rivals.
2018 Michigan Wolverines Regular Season Win Total Prediction
The Michigan win total comes down to five games because the Wolverines should have seven sure wins. The key games are at Notre Dame, home vs. Wisconsin, at Michigan State, home vs. Penn State and at Ohio State. To go over the total of 8.5, the Wolverines have to win two of those five games. Winning two of those five games is definitely possible for Michigan and it is not out of the question that Michigan could win four of the five. It all comes down to the play of Patterson at quarterback. If he delivers in a big way then Michigan could be a national title contender and definitely a team that goes over 8.5 wins this season.
July 11, 2018
The Michigan Wolverines are coming off a very disappointing 2017 season, but they bring back 18 starters for 2018 and expectations are very high for Jim Harbaugh’s squad.
The pressure is mounting on Harbaugh to deliver, as Michigan is 1-5 under Harbaugh against their top rivals and Michigan has yet to play in the Big Ten title game under Harbaugh.
How successful the Wolverines are in 2018 could be determined by how well new quarterback Shea Patterson plays. He is an Ole Miss transfer who takes over the starting job.
Let’s look at Michigan’s schedule for 2018 to see if they will go over or under their win total of 8.5.
2018 Michigan Wolverines Regular Season Win Total
Over 8.5 (-110)
Under 8.5 (-120)
2018 Michigan Wolverines Schedule Analysis
Sept. 1 at Notre Dame
You can make a strong case that the loser of this game will have no real chance to make the College Football Playoffs. Harbaugh will need to have Patterson ready because Michigan can’t win this game simply with defense.
Sept. 8 vs. Western Michigan
These teams haven’t met since 2011 and it has been a one-sided series, as the Broncos have never beaten the Wolverines. That shouldn’t change this season.
Sept. 15 vs. SMU
The Mustangs are going to score with new head coach Sonny Dykes in charge but they won’t stop anyone. Michigan’s defense is very good and SMU may score some points, but this will still be a Michigan blowout.
Sept. 22 vs. Nebraska
The Cornhuskers have a new head coach in Scott Frost and it may take him some time to turn things around at Nebraska. It is hard to see the Cornhuskers winning this one in the Big House.
Sept. 29 at Northwestern
The Wildcats may not have starting quarterback Clayton Thorson as he tore his ACL in last year’s bowl game and may not be ready to return yet. Michigan has won the last five in this series and they should make it six straight this year.
Oct. 6 vs. Maryland
This should be a name the score game for Michigan, as they have won the last three matchups against the Terps by a combined margin of 109 points.
Oct. 13 vs. Wisconsin
The first huge Big 10 game of the season for Michigan is at home as they host the Badgers. These teams are usually tight, but the Wolverines will have the home field advantage and should get the win.
Oct. 20 at Michigan State
The Wolverines gave away last year’s game so they will be playing with revenge, but it won’t be easy on the road against a talented Spartans squad that returns 21 starters.
Nov. 3 vs. Penn State
This looks to be a good one, as two years ago it was Michigan winning big at home, but last year it was the Nittany Lions winning big at home. These teams are very evenly matched and this game could come down to the final possession.
Nov. 10 at Rutgers
This is a letdown spot for Michigan, but it shouldn’t matter. The last time Michigan visited Rutgers they won 78-0.
Nov. 17 vs. Indiana
The Wolverines have won the last 22 games against Indiana going back to 1987. The last three meetings in the series have been close, but this one is in Ann Arbor, so the Wolverines should win easily.
Nov. 24 at Ohio State
This game could decide the Big Ten East Division. The Wolverines will likely be listed as road dogs against their hated rivals.
2018 Michigan Wolverines Regular Season Win Total Prediction
The Michigan win total comes down to five games because the Wolverines should have seven sure wins. The key games are at Notre Dame, home vs. Wisconsin, at Michigan State, home vs. Penn State and at Ohio State. To go over the total of 8.5, the Wolverines have to win two of those five games. Winning two of those five games is definitely possible for Michigan and it is not out of the question that Michigan could win four of the five. It all comes down to the play of Patterson at quarterback. If he delivers in a big way then Michigan could be a national title contender and definitely a team that goes over 8.5 wins this season.
2018 Predictions - Pac-12
July 11, 2018
College Football Predictions: Pac-12
The 2018 college football season is going to be one where the PAC 12 teams need to work hard o re-stablish their conference as a true power in the sport. After all, they did not send a team to the college football playoffs last season and only had two teams with 10 or more wins.
To further compound the issue, PAC 12 teams only managed 1 win versus 8 losses in bowl games. Say what you want about the validity of bowl games, that record does no inspire a lot of faith in this conference. There is certainly enough talent to go around in the PAC 12 but can any of the teams in that conference make a major breakthrough this year. We are going to look at the PAC 12 odds listed at YouWager.eu, check the North and South and pick 3 teams in each who might just have a shot at being in the playoff picture.
Pac-12 CONFERENCE – ODDS TO WIN
Arizona: +1200
Arizona State: +2500
California: +2500
Colorado: +1600
Oregon: +550
Oregon State: +10000
USC: +200
Stanford: +400
UCLA +1200
Utah: +1200
Washington: +120
Washington State: +1000
Pac-12 North Division Preview
Washington Huskies
This is not just the team to beat in the North, they are also the class of the entire conference. One of the reasons why they are so heavily favored this season in that they have no less than 16 starters returning from what was a very good team last year. They will continue to have senior QB Jake Browning under center, which is a definite bonus, but it will once again be the defense that is the star of the show. They gave up a touch over 16 PPG last season, which is a staggeringly good number. Their main issue is going to be a lack of big play guys at the receiver position, but if the defense holds up, this team will be very dangerous indeed.
Stanford Cardinal
Stanford are the defending champions in the North Division and are likely to be challenging for the top spot once again. The biggest concern that the Cardinal have coming into this season is their defense. In 2017, they were very susceptible to the run game, and with their best defensive players all leaving for the NFL, those gaps might just get a little bigger. On offense, the outlook is much better, with Heisman nominated RB Bryce Love returning to the fold.
Oregon Ducks
The Oregon Ducks got a little better in 2017 but will have a whole new coaching staff in place this year. The schedule looks favorable for the Ducks, with their biggest games of the season all set to be played at home, but with that said, I’m not so sure that this group will be able to transition quickly enough to challenge for the division. Second spot is probably the best they can hope for.
Pac-12 South Division Preview
USC Trojans
It should be noted that the 3 teams listed in the South are in no particular order, as this division could go either way. The biggest issue for USC is going to be replacing Sam Darnold at QB, but the good news there is that they have a good enough offensive line to protect whomever is under center. They also have a very good running game and a defense returning 6 starters. Get the QB problem solved and the South could belong to the Trojans.
Utah Utes
Of the 3 teams listed in the South, it is the Utes who have the toughest path to a division’s crown. Their schedule is brutal, but the bonus here is that they could well be a lock for a playoff spot if they somehow get through it and emerge as PAC 12 champions. It will once again be the defense that will carry this team on its shoulders.
Arizona Wildcats
If I had to really go out and pick one of these 3 teams to win the South, my money would be on the Wildcats. Arizona have always had some problems on the defensive side of the football, but with 9 starters returning to the fold, they should take a step forward this season. One thing they will not have to worry about is scoring points, as I think Khalil Mack at QB could end up being the star of the conference.
July 11, 2018
College Football Predictions: Pac-12
The 2018 college football season is going to be one where the PAC 12 teams need to work hard o re-stablish their conference as a true power in the sport. After all, they did not send a team to the college football playoffs last season and only had two teams with 10 or more wins.
To further compound the issue, PAC 12 teams only managed 1 win versus 8 losses in bowl games. Say what you want about the validity of bowl games, that record does no inspire a lot of faith in this conference. There is certainly enough talent to go around in the PAC 12 but can any of the teams in that conference make a major breakthrough this year. We are going to look at the PAC 12 odds listed at YouWager.eu, check the North and South and pick 3 teams in each who might just have a shot at being in the playoff picture.
Pac-12 CONFERENCE – ODDS TO WIN
Arizona: +1200
Arizona State: +2500
California: +2500
Colorado: +1600
Oregon: +550
Oregon State: +10000
USC: +200
Stanford: +400
UCLA +1200
Utah: +1200
Washington: +120
Washington State: +1000
Pac-12 North Division Preview
Washington Huskies
This is not just the team to beat in the North, they are also the class of the entire conference. One of the reasons why they are so heavily favored this season in that they have no less than 16 starters returning from what was a very good team last year. They will continue to have senior QB Jake Browning under center, which is a definite bonus, but it will once again be the defense that is the star of the show. They gave up a touch over 16 PPG last season, which is a staggeringly good number. Their main issue is going to be a lack of big play guys at the receiver position, but if the defense holds up, this team will be very dangerous indeed.
Stanford Cardinal
Stanford are the defending champions in the North Division and are likely to be challenging for the top spot once again. The biggest concern that the Cardinal have coming into this season is their defense. In 2017, they were very susceptible to the run game, and with their best defensive players all leaving for the NFL, those gaps might just get a little bigger. On offense, the outlook is much better, with Heisman nominated RB Bryce Love returning to the fold.
Oregon Ducks
The Oregon Ducks got a little better in 2017 but will have a whole new coaching staff in place this year. The schedule looks favorable for the Ducks, with their biggest games of the season all set to be played at home, but with that said, I’m not so sure that this group will be able to transition quickly enough to challenge for the division. Second spot is probably the best they can hope for.
Pac-12 South Division Preview
USC Trojans
It should be noted that the 3 teams listed in the South are in no particular order, as this division could go either way. The biggest issue for USC is going to be replacing Sam Darnold at QB, but the good news there is that they have a good enough offensive line to protect whomever is under center. They also have a very good running game and a defense returning 6 starters. Get the QB problem solved and the South could belong to the Trojans.
Utah Utes
Of the 3 teams listed in the South, it is the Utes who have the toughest path to a division’s crown. Their schedule is brutal, but the bonus here is that they could well be a lock for a playoff spot if they somehow get through it and emerge as PAC 12 champions. It will once again be the defense that will carry this team on its shoulders.
Arizona Wildcats
If I had to really go out and pick one of these 3 teams to win the South, my money would be on the Wildcats. Arizona have always had some problems on the defensive side of the football, but with 9 starters returning to the fold, they should take a step forward this season. One thing they will not have to worry about is scoring points, as I think Khalil Mack at QB could end up being the star of the conference.
2018 GOY - Best Bets
July 11, 2018
Odds per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
Week 2
South Carolina +14.5 vs. Georgia
I’ve already explained how bullish I am on South Carolina this season. I made this number UGA -4.5, but fully expected it to come out around seven. When South Point opened it at -11 back in June, I was salivating. Turns out, the book moved it to UGA -14 quickly, and now The Westgate SuperBook has opened the Bulldogs at -14.5. Will Muschamp’s team has a great chance to win this game outright. Catching more than two touchdowns at home with a veteran QB, two of the nation’s top wide receivers and Muschamp’s defensive game plan? This is a Week 2 gift! Remember, USC easily cashed tickets in Athens last year as a 24-point road underdog in a 24-10 loss. Let’s also note how Deebo Samuel didn’t play in that game, either. This is a heavy play for me. I’d suggest at least five units and when the money-line return becomes available, at least one unit on that as well.
Week 3
Syracuse +9.5 vs. Florida State
Let’s start by stressing how Syracuse’s 4-8 record last season was such a poor indicator of what sort of team this was. Dino Babers’s second squad was off to a 4-3 start with a win over Clemson, a team that finished 12-2 with its only other loss coming to Alabama in the College Football Playoff semifinals. At that point, the Orange’s only defeats were in a trio of close games. They lost 30-23 at home to Middle Tennessee when the two Blue Raiders’ stars, QB Brent Stockstill and WR Richie James, were healthy. The other two L’s were easy spread covers as double-digit underdogs at LSU (35-26) and at N.C. State (33-25). The Tigers and Wolfpack combined to outgain the ‘Cuse by merely 48 yards of total offense. Syracuse took its 4-3 record down to Miami and committed four first-half turnovers. Nevertheless, the Orange rallied in the second half and they were driving deep in UM territory late in the fourth quarter while trailing 27-19, only to come up short. Then in Tallahassee the next week, star QB Eric Dungey injured his foot early in the first quarter and missed a good chunk of the first half. He would return in the second quarter and lead the Orange to 463 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, FSU could muster just 343 yards of total offense. However, Syracuse kicker Cole Murphy, who would earn third-team All-ACC honors and came into the FSU game with 16-of-18 field-goal accuracy, would go 1-of-3 including a 43-yard miss on the game’s final play that would’ve forced overtime. In addition, Babers opted to pass on a short field goal deep in the red zone on a fourth-and-three play with less than a minute remaining in the first half. The 'Cuse failed on the fourth-down attempt. Furthermore, FSU was inexplicably not called for a clear neutral-zone violation on a fourth-and-one stop in the final stanza that proved to be crucial. ‘Cuse fans were also irate about two holding calls that weren’t flagged on a 54-yard TD run from FSU RB Cam Akers. Dungey wouldn’t play in the last three games, all losses, including a home setback to Wake Forest when the Orange allowed a double-digit halftime lead to get away. Before those final three outings sans Dungey, Syracuse was +817 vs. its first nine foes in total yardage. The Orange was minus seven in turnover ratio in those final three games. They bring back eight starters on offense, six on defense and lost just 18 lettermen. I like the home underdogs here for two units in Week 3 and don't be surprised if the Orange wins outright.
Week 7
South Carolina +2.5 vs. Texas A&M
USC is 53-16 in its home games at Williams-Brice Stadium since 2008. The Aggies will be playing their third game outside of College Station in a four-week span, while the Gamecocks will be playing their fifth home game in seven weeks. Since 2009, South Carolina owns a 9-3 spread record in 12 games as a home underdog. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is 6-9 against the spread in its past 15 games as a road ‘chalk’ since 2011. I’d make Muschamp’s bunch a 3.5 or four-point favorite on a neutral field. Let’s go with 2.5 units on USC here for this Oct. 13 encounter.
Week 8
Mississippi State +3 at LSU
Mississippi State has two weeks to prepare for this trip to Baton Rouge on Oct. 20. On the flip side, LSU will be playing its eighth game in eight weeks. The Tigers are at Florida and then host Georgia before facing the set of Bulldogs from Starkville. That’s a brutal three-week span and let’s remember that Ed Orgeron’s bunch must take on Miami at Jerry World and travel to Auburn in September. Before MSU blasted LSU by a 37-7 count last season, the three previous encounters had been decided by 10 combined points. The Bulldogs won 34-29 at Tiger Stadium in 2014 and lost a 23-20 decision in ’16. This is only a one-unit wager for me simply because I’m a tad hesitant with MSU until I see that star QB Nick Fitzgerald is healthy after that gruesome injury at the Egg Bowl. Both schools finished 9-4 last year, but MSU brings back nine starters on offense and eight on defense. LSU return just 10 total starters, five apiece on each side of the ball.
Week 8
Utah +4 vs. Southern California
Three of the past four games in this rivalry have been decided by eight combined points. Since 2012, Utah is 6-3 ATS in nine games as a home underdog. As for USC, it has limped to a 15-24 spread record as a road favorite dating back to 2008. This will be the fourth road assignment for the Trojans in seven weeks. Utah hosts Arizona on a Friday night the previous week, giving it an extra day of preparation. The Utes will be in revenge mode after allowing a 21-7 intermission lead to get away at The Coliseum last year. They missed a two-point conversion with 42 ticks left in a 28-27 loss. Utah went just 7-6 straight up last season, but it finished 10-3 ATS with four defeats coming in one-possessions games. Three of those L’s were by seven combined points. Kyle Whittingham’s punter and place-kicker are back and they were both All-Americans last season. Let’s go with 1.5 units on the Utes in this Oct. 20 Pac-12 showdown.
Week 8
Arizona pick ‘em at UCLA
UCLA lost its head coach, a QB who was the 10th overall pick in the first round of the NFL Draft, its two best wide receivers and its best player on defense. We have a huge edge at the QB position with Arizona’s Khalil Tate, who rushed for 230 yards and two TDs in a 47-30 win over the Bruins last year. I think UA is a Pac-12 South contender, while I have UCLA pegged for the basement of this division. We also have an extra day of preparation with the Wildcats playing at Utah the Friday before. This is another 1.5-unit wager on Oct. 20.
Week 10
Stanford +9.5 at Washington
I’m bullish on both teams this year. Washington is playing its 10th game in 10 weeks in this spot. Stanford has beaten the Huskies in four of the past five season and 10 of the last 13. The Cardinal has lost by double digits only seven times during David Shaw’s seven years at the helm that covers 95 games. They’re 13-4-1 in 18 games as underdogs on Shaw’s watch, winning outright in all three contests in which they were ‘dogs of 9.5 points or more. Stanford has the nation’s best RB (Bryce Love), perhaps the country’s best TE (Kaden Smith), a solid QB (K.J. Costello), two outstanding WRs (J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Trenton Irwin) and the fourth-best offensive line (per Phil Steele’s national unit rankings). Other than at Alabama, I’d probably take the Cardinal +9.5 against any team at any venue. Two units here on Stanford in this Nov. 12 scrap that’ll likely decide the winner of the Pac-12 North.
Week 13
South Carolina +23 at Clemson
Clemson has outscored South Carolina by a combined score of 90-17 in the past two meetings. However, this is Muschamp’s best team and I’d take the Gamecocks +23 against any opponent at any venue this season. Clemson wins by 10-17 points. Just a small one-unit play here.
Several other leans not mentioned include Stanford pick ‘em at Oregon (9/22), Wisconsin -16.5 vs. Nebraska (10/6) and West Virginia +9.5 at Texas (11/3).
July 11, 2018
Odds per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
Week 2
South Carolina +14.5 vs. Georgia
I’ve already explained how bullish I am on South Carolina this season. I made this number UGA -4.5, but fully expected it to come out around seven. When South Point opened it at -11 back in June, I was salivating. Turns out, the book moved it to UGA -14 quickly, and now The Westgate SuperBook has opened the Bulldogs at -14.5. Will Muschamp’s team has a great chance to win this game outright. Catching more than two touchdowns at home with a veteran QB, two of the nation’s top wide receivers and Muschamp’s defensive game plan? This is a Week 2 gift! Remember, USC easily cashed tickets in Athens last year as a 24-point road underdog in a 24-10 loss. Let’s also note how Deebo Samuel didn’t play in that game, either. This is a heavy play for me. I’d suggest at least five units and when the money-line return becomes available, at least one unit on that as well.
Week 3
Syracuse +9.5 vs. Florida State
Let’s start by stressing how Syracuse’s 4-8 record last season was such a poor indicator of what sort of team this was. Dino Babers’s second squad was off to a 4-3 start with a win over Clemson, a team that finished 12-2 with its only other loss coming to Alabama in the College Football Playoff semifinals. At that point, the Orange’s only defeats were in a trio of close games. They lost 30-23 at home to Middle Tennessee when the two Blue Raiders’ stars, QB Brent Stockstill and WR Richie James, were healthy. The other two L’s were easy spread covers as double-digit underdogs at LSU (35-26) and at N.C. State (33-25). The Tigers and Wolfpack combined to outgain the ‘Cuse by merely 48 yards of total offense. Syracuse took its 4-3 record down to Miami and committed four first-half turnovers. Nevertheless, the Orange rallied in the second half and they were driving deep in UM territory late in the fourth quarter while trailing 27-19, only to come up short. Then in Tallahassee the next week, star QB Eric Dungey injured his foot early in the first quarter and missed a good chunk of the first half. He would return in the second quarter and lead the Orange to 463 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, FSU could muster just 343 yards of total offense. However, Syracuse kicker Cole Murphy, who would earn third-team All-ACC honors and came into the FSU game with 16-of-18 field-goal accuracy, would go 1-of-3 including a 43-yard miss on the game’s final play that would’ve forced overtime. In addition, Babers opted to pass on a short field goal deep in the red zone on a fourth-and-three play with less than a minute remaining in the first half. The 'Cuse failed on the fourth-down attempt. Furthermore, FSU was inexplicably not called for a clear neutral-zone violation on a fourth-and-one stop in the final stanza that proved to be crucial. ‘Cuse fans were also irate about two holding calls that weren’t flagged on a 54-yard TD run from FSU RB Cam Akers. Dungey wouldn’t play in the last three games, all losses, including a home setback to Wake Forest when the Orange allowed a double-digit halftime lead to get away. Before those final three outings sans Dungey, Syracuse was +817 vs. its first nine foes in total yardage. The Orange was minus seven in turnover ratio in those final three games. They bring back eight starters on offense, six on defense and lost just 18 lettermen. I like the home underdogs here for two units in Week 3 and don't be surprised if the Orange wins outright.
Week 7
South Carolina +2.5 vs. Texas A&M
USC is 53-16 in its home games at Williams-Brice Stadium since 2008. The Aggies will be playing their third game outside of College Station in a four-week span, while the Gamecocks will be playing their fifth home game in seven weeks. Since 2009, South Carolina owns a 9-3 spread record in 12 games as a home underdog. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is 6-9 against the spread in its past 15 games as a road ‘chalk’ since 2011. I’d make Muschamp’s bunch a 3.5 or four-point favorite on a neutral field. Let’s go with 2.5 units on USC here for this Oct. 13 encounter.
Week 8
Mississippi State +3 at LSU
Mississippi State has two weeks to prepare for this trip to Baton Rouge on Oct. 20. On the flip side, LSU will be playing its eighth game in eight weeks. The Tigers are at Florida and then host Georgia before facing the set of Bulldogs from Starkville. That’s a brutal three-week span and let’s remember that Ed Orgeron’s bunch must take on Miami at Jerry World and travel to Auburn in September. Before MSU blasted LSU by a 37-7 count last season, the three previous encounters had been decided by 10 combined points. The Bulldogs won 34-29 at Tiger Stadium in 2014 and lost a 23-20 decision in ’16. This is only a one-unit wager for me simply because I’m a tad hesitant with MSU until I see that star QB Nick Fitzgerald is healthy after that gruesome injury at the Egg Bowl. Both schools finished 9-4 last year, but MSU brings back nine starters on offense and eight on defense. LSU return just 10 total starters, five apiece on each side of the ball.
Week 8
Utah +4 vs. Southern California
Three of the past four games in this rivalry have been decided by eight combined points. Since 2012, Utah is 6-3 ATS in nine games as a home underdog. As for USC, it has limped to a 15-24 spread record as a road favorite dating back to 2008. This will be the fourth road assignment for the Trojans in seven weeks. Utah hosts Arizona on a Friday night the previous week, giving it an extra day of preparation. The Utes will be in revenge mode after allowing a 21-7 intermission lead to get away at The Coliseum last year. They missed a two-point conversion with 42 ticks left in a 28-27 loss. Utah went just 7-6 straight up last season, but it finished 10-3 ATS with four defeats coming in one-possessions games. Three of those L’s were by seven combined points. Kyle Whittingham’s punter and place-kicker are back and they were both All-Americans last season. Let’s go with 1.5 units on the Utes in this Oct. 20 Pac-12 showdown.
Week 8
Arizona pick ‘em at UCLA
UCLA lost its head coach, a QB who was the 10th overall pick in the first round of the NFL Draft, its two best wide receivers and its best player on defense. We have a huge edge at the QB position with Arizona’s Khalil Tate, who rushed for 230 yards and two TDs in a 47-30 win over the Bruins last year. I think UA is a Pac-12 South contender, while I have UCLA pegged for the basement of this division. We also have an extra day of preparation with the Wildcats playing at Utah the Friday before. This is another 1.5-unit wager on Oct. 20.
Week 10
Stanford +9.5 at Washington
I’m bullish on both teams this year. Washington is playing its 10th game in 10 weeks in this spot. Stanford has beaten the Huskies in four of the past five season and 10 of the last 13. The Cardinal has lost by double digits only seven times during David Shaw’s seven years at the helm that covers 95 games. They’re 13-4-1 in 18 games as underdogs on Shaw’s watch, winning outright in all three contests in which they were ‘dogs of 9.5 points or more. Stanford has the nation’s best RB (Bryce Love), perhaps the country’s best TE (Kaden Smith), a solid QB (K.J. Costello), two outstanding WRs (J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Trenton Irwin) and the fourth-best offensive line (per Phil Steele’s national unit rankings). Other than at Alabama, I’d probably take the Cardinal +9.5 against any team at any venue. Two units here on Stanford in this Nov. 12 scrap that’ll likely decide the winner of the Pac-12 North.
Week 13
South Carolina +23 at Clemson
Clemson has outscored South Carolina by a combined score of 90-17 in the past two meetings. However, this is Muschamp’s best team and I’d take the Gamecocks +23 against any opponent at any venue this season. Clemson wins by 10-17 points. Just a small one-unit play here.
Several other leans not mentioned include Stanford pick ‘em at Oregon (9/22), Wisconsin -16.5 vs. Nebraska (10/6) and West Virginia +9.5 at Texas (11/3).
CFB notebook: Florida to induct Tebow into Ring of Honor
July 11, 2018
Former quarterback Tim Tebow will be inducted into Florida's Ring of Honor, the school announced on Wednesday.
The two-time national champion and 2007 Heisman Trophy winner will be recognized during the Gators' game against LSU on Oct. 6. Tebow's name will be unveiled and displayed in the north end zone of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
"I am so humbled and thankful to be able to receive this blessing, being inducted into the Ring of Honor," the 30-year-old Tebow said in a statement. "I know in my heart that I truly couldn't have done it without amazing coaches and teammates who loved and sacrificed for each other so that we could accomplish our goals.
"Loving Florida wasn't just something I did for four years, but it has been a lifelong passion. I want to thank the University of Florida and all the fans for making Gator Nation so special. I was born a Gator, I played as a Gator, and I'll always be a Gator!"
Tebow is the sixth player to receive the honor. He will join linebacker Wilber Marshall, running back Emmitt Smith, 1966 Heisman winner and coach Steve Spurrier, 1996 Heisman winner Danny Wuerffel and defensive end Jack Youngblood.
A three-time Heisman Trophy finalist, Tebow posted a 35-6 mark during his four seasons (2006-09) at Florida.
--Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun told reporters that he is under no obligation to name the team's defensive coordinator.
The team hasn't named a replacement for Steve Russ, who became the Carolina Panthers' linebackers coach in January. Russ had spent the previous four seasons as Air Force's defensive coordinator and defensive backfield coach.
Calhoun told ESPN.com on Tuesday that the experience of the defensive staff and its ability to collaborate on play calls and scheme creates little urgency for a designated coordinator.
Potential in-house candidates for the position are Tim Cross (assistant head coach, defensive line coach), Ron Vanderlinden (inside linebackers), Brian Knorr (edge defenders), John Rudzinski or Chip Vaughn (secondary) and Matt Weikert (outside linebackers).
--Rutgers defensive back K.J. Gray and linebacker Brendan DeVera have been dismissed from the program for violating team rules, multiple media outlets reported.
Gray, a junior, and DeVera, a sophomore, were expected to play key roles on defense and special teams this season.
The 6-foot-1, 205-pound Gray recorded a secondary-best 58 tackles last season to go along with two interceptions.
DeVera, who is listed at 6-1 and 242 pounds, notched two tackles while playing in 11 games as a true freshman last fall.
--Defensive end Mark Brown has left San Diego State and transferred to Texas Tech, the Red Raiders confirmed after several weeks of rumors that he would make the move.
Brown, who played at Arlington Heights High in Fort Worth, Texas, was a three-star recruit for the Aztecs in 2017 and took a redshirt year as a freshman last season.
Although he did not play in a game, Brown made an impression at San Diego State, being named as the program's Defensive Scout Team Player of the Year.
Brown will sit out this season to satisfy NCAA transfer rules and have three years of eligibility remaining.
--Georgia wide receiver Michael Chigbu, who during the spring indicated he might give up football because of injuries, is not listed in the Bulldogs' 2018 media guide.
The 6-foot-2, 213-pound Chigbu, once a highly rated prospect who would be a senior this season, has battled shoulder and knee injuries the last two years.
Head coach Kirby Smart acknowledged in April that Chigbu "may be thinking about hanging it up."
As a sophomore at Georgia, Chigbu enjoyed his best season by starting seven of the nine games in which he played and making nine receptions for 88 yards. Chigbu did not catch a pass last season and has 13 receptions and 116 receiving yards for his career.
July 11, 2018
Former quarterback Tim Tebow will be inducted into Florida's Ring of Honor, the school announced on Wednesday.
The two-time national champion and 2007 Heisman Trophy winner will be recognized during the Gators' game against LSU on Oct. 6. Tebow's name will be unveiled and displayed in the north end zone of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
"I am so humbled and thankful to be able to receive this blessing, being inducted into the Ring of Honor," the 30-year-old Tebow said in a statement. "I know in my heart that I truly couldn't have done it without amazing coaches and teammates who loved and sacrificed for each other so that we could accomplish our goals.
"Loving Florida wasn't just something I did for four years, but it has been a lifelong passion. I want to thank the University of Florida and all the fans for making Gator Nation so special. I was born a Gator, I played as a Gator, and I'll always be a Gator!"
Tebow is the sixth player to receive the honor. He will join linebacker Wilber Marshall, running back Emmitt Smith, 1966 Heisman winner and coach Steve Spurrier, 1996 Heisman winner Danny Wuerffel and defensive end Jack Youngblood.
A three-time Heisman Trophy finalist, Tebow posted a 35-6 mark during his four seasons (2006-09) at Florida.
--Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun told reporters that he is under no obligation to name the team's defensive coordinator.
The team hasn't named a replacement for Steve Russ, who became the Carolina Panthers' linebackers coach in January. Russ had spent the previous four seasons as Air Force's defensive coordinator and defensive backfield coach.
Calhoun told ESPN.com on Tuesday that the experience of the defensive staff and its ability to collaborate on play calls and scheme creates little urgency for a designated coordinator.
Potential in-house candidates for the position are Tim Cross (assistant head coach, defensive line coach), Ron Vanderlinden (inside linebackers), Brian Knorr (edge defenders), John Rudzinski or Chip Vaughn (secondary) and Matt Weikert (outside linebackers).
--Rutgers defensive back K.J. Gray and linebacker Brendan DeVera have been dismissed from the program for violating team rules, multiple media outlets reported.
Gray, a junior, and DeVera, a sophomore, were expected to play key roles on defense and special teams this season.
The 6-foot-1, 205-pound Gray recorded a secondary-best 58 tackles last season to go along with two interceptions.
DeVera, who is listed at 6-1 and 242 pounds, notched two tackles while playing in 11 games as a true freshman last fall.
--Defensive end Mark Brown has left San Diego State and transferred to Texas Tech, the Red Raiders confirmed after several weeks of rumors that he would make the move.
Brown, who played at Arlington Heights High in Fort Worth, Texas, was a three-star recruit for the Aztecs in 2017 and took a redshirt year as a freshman last season.
Although he did not play in a game, Brown made an impression at San Diego State, being named as the program's Defensive Scout Team Player of the Year.
Brown will sit out this season to satisfy NCAA transfer rules and have three years of eligibility remaining.
--Georgia wide receiver Michael Chigbu, who during the spring indicated he might give up football because of injuries, is not listed in the Bulldogs' 2018 media guide.
The 6-foot-2, 213-pound Chigbu, once a highly rated prospect who would be a senior this season, has battled shoulder and knee injuries the last two years.
Head coach Kirby Smart acknowledged in April that Chigbu "may be thinking about hanging it up."
As a sophomore at Georgia, Chigbu enjoyed his best season by starting seven of the nine games in which he played and making nine receptions for 88 yards. Chigbu did not catch a pass last season and has 13 receptions and 116 receiving yards for his career.
Handicapping Northwestern (7.5)
July 12, 2018
The Northwestern Wildcats are coming off a 10-win season, but they have to replace their all-time leading rusher and they have to hope that quarterback Clayton Thorson is healthy. Winning 10 games again in 2018 will not be easy, but most of the tough games for Northwestern in 2018 are at home and they don’t have to play Ohio State or Penn State.
Let’s look at the Wildcats schedule to see if they will go over of under their win total of 7.5.
2018 Northwestern Wildcats Regular Season Win Total
Over 7.5 (-115)
Under 7.5 (-115)
2018 Northwestern Wildcats Schedule Analysis
Aug. 30 at Purdue
The Wildcats don’t have a non-conference opponent to fatten up on to start the season, as they have to get right into Big Ten play against Purdue. The Wildcats should win this game, but only if Thorson is completely healthy and ready to go.
Sept. 8 Duke
This is a tricky home opener for Northwestern, as Duke is capable of springing the upset. The good news for Northwestern is that they have won the last two games in this series.
Sept. 15 Akron
This should be a breather for the Wildcats before they have to run the gauntlet. The Zips have not won a game against a Big Ten team this decade and they shouldn’t win this one.
Sept. 29 Michigan
The first huge game of the season comes in late September, as the Wildcats host Michigan. The Wolverines are expected to be improved, so this is a huge litmus test for Northwestern and a likely home loss.
Oct. 6 at Michigan State
The Wildcats have actually won the last two games in this series, so Michigan State will not be overlooking Northwestern. This looks like a road defeat for the Wildcats.
Oct. 13 Nebraska
The Cornhuskers have a new head coach in Scott Frost and a new outlook. This could be a tough home contest for the Wildcats.
Oct. 20 at Rutgers
The Scarlet Knights have been an easy win for most Big Ten teams, as Rutgers is just 5-22 in the Big Ten since 2015. This should be a road win for Northwestern.
Oct. 27 Wisconsin
The Wildcats have the home field edge in this contest, but Wisconsin is considered one of the top teams in the Big Ten, so this looks like a home loss.
Nov. 3 Notre Dame
The Wildcats get to play at home again, but they will be home underdogs to a Notre Dame team that could be a national title contender.
Nov. 10 at Iowa
The Wildcats have won the last two in this series, but this game is on the road and Iowa is normally very good at home.
Nov. 17 at Minnesota
The Gophers will want revenge for last season when they were shutout by Northwestern. This will not be an easy game for the Wildcats, but one they need to win if they are to finish with a winning record.
Nov. 24 Illinois
This is a rivalry game and it should go the way of the Wildcats, as they are at home and they have taken four of the last five in the series.
2018 Northwestern Wildcats Regular Season Win Total Prediction
The Wildcats don’t have to play Ohio State or Penn State, but their schedule is still difficult. The only real advantage they have is getting to play some of their tough games at home. That may not be enough of an edge, as Northwestern is not known as a team that has a big home field advantage.
The win total for the Wildcats is set at 7.5 games. That number seems too high, considering the team will have to win eight games to go over that number. Breaking down the schedule we find five games that Northwestern should win (Purdue, Duke, Akron, Rutgers, Illinois), four games they are likely to lose (Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Wisconsin) and three toss-up games (Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota). The Wildcats would need to win all three of their toss-up games to get to eight wins and go over their win total of 7.5.
That seems unlikely, so we’ll go under the win total of 7.5 for the 2018 Northwestern Wildcats.
July 12, 2018
The Northwestern Wildcats are coming off a 10-win season, but they have to replace their all-time leading rusher and they have to hope that quarterback Clayton Thorson is healthy. Winning 10 games again in 2018 will not be easy, but most of the tough games for Northwestern in 2018 are at home and they don’t have to play Ohio State or Penn State.
Let’s look at the Wildcats schedule to see if they will go over of under their win total of 7.5.
2018 Northwestern Wildcats Regular Season Win Total
Over 7.5 (-115)
Under 7.5 (-115)
2018 Northwestern Wildcats Schedule Analysis
Aug. 30 at Purdue
The Wildcats don’t have a non-conference opponent to fatten up on to start the season, as they have to get right into Big Ten play against Purdue. The Wildcats should win this game, but only if Thorson is completely healthy and ready to go.
Sept. 8 Duke
This is a tricky home opener for Northwestern, as Duke is capable of springing the upset. The good news for Northwestern is that they have won the last two games in this series.
Sept. 15 Akron
This should be a breather for the Wildcats before they have to run the gauntlet. The Zips have not won a game against a Big Ten team this decade and they shouldn’t win this one.
Sept. 29 Michigan
The first huge game of the season comes in late September, as the Wildcats host Michigan. The Wolverines are expected to be improved, so this is a huge litmus test for Northwestern and a likely home loss.
Oct. 6 at Michigan State
The Wildcats have actually won the last two games in this series, so Michigan State will not be overlooking Northwestern. This looks like a road defeat for the Wildcats.
Oct. 13 Nebraska
The Cornhuskers have a new head coach in Scott Frost and a new outlook. This could be a tough home contest for the Wildcats.
Oct. 20 at Rutgers
The Scarlet Knights have been an easy win for most Big Ten teams, as Rutgers is just 5-22 in the Big Ten since 2015. This should be a road win for Northwestern.
Oct. 27 Wisconsin
The Wildcats have the home field edge in this contest, but Wisconsin is considered one of the top teams in the Big Ten, so this looks like a home loss.
Nov. 3 Notre Dame
The Wildcats get to play at home again, but they will be home underdogs to a Notre Dame team that could be a national title contender.
Nov. 10 at Iowa
The Wildcats have won the last two in this series, but this game is on the road and Iowa is normally very good at home.
Nov. 17 at Minnesota
The Gophers will want revenge for last season when they were shutout by Northwestern. This will not be an easy game for the Wildcats, but one they need to win if they are to finish with a winning record.
Nov. 24 Illinois
This is a rivalry game and it should go the way of the Wildcats, as they are at home and they have taken four of the last five in the series.
2018 Northwestern Wildcats Regular Season Win Total Prediction
The Wildcats don’t have to play Ohio State or Penn State, but their schedule is still difficult. The only real advantage they have is getting to play some of their tough games at home. That may not be enough of an edge, as Northwestern is not known as a team that has a big home field advantage.
The win total for the Wildcats is set at 7.5 games. That number seems too high, considering the team will have to win eight games to go over that number. Breaking down the schedule we find five games that Northwestern should win (Purdue, Duke, Akron, Rutgers, Illinois), four games they are likely to lose (Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Wisconsin) and three toss-up games (Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota). The Wildcats would need to win all three of their toss-up games to get to eight wins and go over their win total of 7.5.
That seems unlikely, so we’ll go under the win total of 7.5 for the 2018 Northwestern Wildcats.
2018 MAC Preview
July 15, 2018
2018 MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE PREVIEW
FU Northwestern
A promising high school career for Damair Roberson, a dynamic 6-foot-2, 195-pound receiver/linebacker/return man and a three-star prospect, is over abruptly. He will miss his entire senior high school season this fall after re-injuring the same knee mid-season last year.
The betrayal that Roberson felt after learning the scholarship offer from Northwestern University was no longer valid really hurt. Even after the second injury, Western Michigan University honored its commitment to Roberson and kept its offer on the table. In turn, Roberson rewarded that loyalty with a commitment to the Broncos. Remember his name down the road.
Rivalries Abound
The MAC has its fair share of intense rivalries, including the Battle of the Bricks (Ohio vs. Miami), the Michigan MAC Trophy (Central, Eastern and Western Michigan), the Battle of I-75 (Toledo vs. Bowling Green) and the Wagon Wheel (Akron vs. Kent State). Rest assured, despite being Group of Fivers, these rivalries remain intense.
Bowl Busts
The MAC has disappointed in bowl games, especially the past 10 seasons as they are just 15-41 SU and 18-36-2 ATS overall.
Worse, in bowl games against foes coming off a loss the MAC has gone 3-21 SU and 4-19-1 ATS since 2008, including 0-6 SUATS as either a pick or a favorite. Yikes.
Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.
AKRON (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 9/3, 58 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: AS GOOD FORTUNE WOULD HAVE IT
The saying “you’re better off being lucky than good” applied in spades to the Zips last season when Terry Bowden’s troops went bowling despite surrendering 126 YPG more than they gained. However, thanks to a +10 net turnover ratio, and winning three games by a total of 5 points, Akron somehow won the MAC East title in 2017. They were ultimately obliterated by Toledo and Florida Atlantic in the MAC title and Boca Raton Bowl games, respectively, when they surrendered 95 points and 1,153 yards. To top it off, longtime DC Chuck Amato has retired. Fortunately, the Zips bring back an experienced crew of underclassmen. Soph QB Kato Nelson holds promise, but they’ll likely need Lady Luck to come calling again.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Zips head coach Bowden is 3-18 SU and 4-16-1 ATS as a home dog against .400 or greater opponents.
PLAY AGAINST: at Kent State (10/20)
BALL STATE (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 7/0, 51 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: A NEU APPROACH
After a 2-1 start last season under new coach Mike Neu, it appeared that Ball State was about to shake a 4-year losing skid. And then faster than you can say there goes Riley (QB Neal, 68% completions in his first three games, then done with an injury), the season went to hell in a hand bag thanks to a cruiseship of injuries as the Cardinals were forced to close out with a group of replacemant “neubies”. By season’s end, they were down to a 4th string freshman signal caller. Their starting WRs played a combined 5 games and only half of the starters on defense made it through unscathed. Neal’s 5,000 career passing yards are back along with a skill corps loaded with experience, led by RB James Gilbert. Take two.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Ball State freshmen started 32.2% of all games last season – the 2nd most in the nation.
PLAY ON: vs. Eastern Michigan (10/20)
BOWLING GREEN (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 8/2, 38 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: LO JINKS ERA OFF TO ROUGH START
When new coaches inherit 10-win programs, there is almost always no place to go but downhill. In Mike Jinks’ case, the Falcons have been on a slippery slalom run with just 4-and-2 win seasons in his tenure with Bowling Green. The good news is that after inking strong recruiting classes the last two years (26 three-star recruits), the course finally appears manageable. Sophomores (from Jinks’ first class) logged plenty of playing time last season, led by QB Jarret Doege (64% completions with 12 TDs and 3 INTs) and RB’s Andrew Clair and Matt Domer (819 combined rush yards on 6.5 YPR). FYI: Doege is the younger brother of former Texas Tech QB Seth Doege. With new DC Carl Pelini in tow, look for the ascent to begin.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Falcons have gone 37-5 SU in games in which they won the stats, and 5-30 SU in games in which they lost the stats over the last six years.
PLAY ON: vs. Akron (11/17)
BUFFALO (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 6/2, 51 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BREAK ON THROUGH TO THE OTHER SIDE
Call the 2017 season a steppingstone for the Bulls. A 6-6 record saw all six losses coming by a combined 29 points. Despite being forced to start three different quarterbacks due to injuries, they rolled up a school-record 5,183 yards of total offense while leading the MAC in passing yardage. It’s not often a team features a QB (Drew Anderson) that threw for a conference-record 597 yards and seven TDs in one game that may not be its starter. He’ll be in a heated battle with talented incumbent starter Tyree Jackson. On defense, the firepower comes from SR MLB Khalil Hodge who ranked second in the nation in tackles in 2017, and owns 277 total the last two seasons. No bull. This team looks primed for a breakthrough season.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Since joining the MAC in 1999, Buffalo is 9-59 SU versus winning opponents.
PLAY ON: vs. Akron (10/13)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (Offense – 4/2, Defense – 6/2, 40 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: GIMME FIVE
After winning 7, 6, 7, 7 and 6 games each of the previous five seasons, the Chippewas broke rank last year to go 8-5, thanks largely to a 4-0 record in one-possession games, and a five-game season-ending win skein. Michigan transfer QB Shane Morris produced an eyebrow-raising 164.1 passer rating during his final five starts for the Chips last season, but he and four of his top five targets are gone. In addition, RB Jonathan Ward also stepped up down the stretch, rushing for 625 yards (7.1 YPR) over the same span late in the season. If 6’7” sophomore QB Tony Poljan can fill Morris’ shoes, CMU should reach its 5th straight bowl game in 2018. Stay tuned. STAT YOU WILL LIKE: CMU is 18-7 SU and 19-6 ATS away from Game Six out the last six years.
PASS
EASTERN MICHIGAN (Offense – 6/5, Defense – 7/2, 46 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: TURN UP THE GREEN
Head coach Chris Creighton has put his stamp on the EMU program. One of 14 active FBS coaches to record more than 150 wins, the 49-year-old Creighton guided the school to its first win in 126 seasons over a Big Ten or Power Five team last season. The Eagles’ 12 wins over the last two seasons is Eastern Michigan’s best two-year stretch since 1988-89. More important, nine of those 12 wins have been by a TD of less, meaning they’ve learned how to win close-call games. It’s no coincidence that Creighton’s teams at Drake sport the highest win percentage in school history (21-2 in home games). It’s now time he takes this program to the next level. Don’t bet against him.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Eastern Michigan allowed the fewest points (280) in school history last season.
PLAY ON: at Western Michigan (10/6)
KENT STATE (Offense – 7/3, Defense – 6/2, 49 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: FLASH: EVERYTHING NEW IS OLD AGAIN
The Paul Haynes experiment lasted five years before the Flashes finally pulled the plug, as a 14-41 record was all the proof they needed. What more could you expect from a team that finished dead last in Red Zone Defense last season, and a program that’s won more than six games in a season just once in the last 30 years. Enter new boss Sean Lewis, a former Dino Babers assistant at Syracuse. And with Lewis comes a major shift in offensive identity. But for a team that does not have the proper personnel on the roster to effectuate the planned attack – and one that might not find itself favored in any game this season – expecting immediate improvement is certainly a stretch for KSU.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Flashes were 4-40 SU and 9-34 ATS in games in which they scored less than 24 points under Paul Haynes.
PLAY ON: at Buffalo (11/6)
MIAMI-OHIO (Offense – *8/5, Defense – 8/3, 47 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: MY FAVORITE MARTIN
Despite a seventh consecutive losing season, the RedHawks are actually 11-8 in their last nineteen games overall – with five of the losses coming in one-possession games. Read: Miami is making strides under Chuck Martin who, unfortunately, will likely have to win this year if he wishes to return next season. The good news is Miami welcomes back 18 seniors, including one at nearly every position. A settled offensive line (an unstable one last year that started eight different linemen) operates in front of QB Gus Ragland (10-6 as a starter and an all MAC nominee). Coupled with a defense loaded with upperclassmen that finds seven of the top eight linemen, four of the top five linebackers and five of the top seven defensive back all returning, this team looks ready to turn the page.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Miami is 5-17 in one-possession games under Chuck Martin.
PLAY ON: vs. Marshall (9/1) - *KEY
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (Offense – *8/5, Defense – 6/2, 54 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BEWARE OF THE DOGS
Talk about a statistical anomaly: despite improving from 5 wins to 8 last season, the Huskies’ offense evaporated 85 YPG, whereas the defense finished No. 26 overall in the land, improving 113 YPG. The bad news this season is NIU’s first three non-conference games are against Power 5 bowlers, including visits to Florida State and Iowa. The good news is most of the starters from the stop-unit are back, including DL Sutton Smith who led the nation in Tackles For a Loss last season. Should they finally find continuity behind center (forced to use 8 different quarterbacks over the past 31 games) to go with the best Group of 5-defense while facing a daunting non-conference slate, NIU becomes the team to beat in the MAC this season.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Huskies are 30-10 SU and 27-12-1 ATS in their last forty road games.
PASS
OHIO (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 5/2, 50 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: FRANKLY SPEAKING
As we alluded to last year on this page, in Frank Solich’s 73 years on this earth, including 13 with the Bobcats, they’ve managed to win four MAC division titles while also going bowling 9 of the last ten years. It would have been five had they not folded during the final two games of last season. Safe to say, Solich is certainly battle tested. The former head coach and running back at Nebraska has raised OU from the depths of despair to a highly competitive program, one that seems to play an abundance of close games (21 decided by a TD or less the last four seasons). Star QB Nathan Rourke and RB A.J. Ouellette each return along with a boatload of other starters from an offense that improved 13 PPG last season. Mixed in with the Bobcats taking on 3rd easiest schedule of all Group of 5 schools in 2018 with foes going 59-88 (.401) last season, we frankly expect more from OU in 2018.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: For the second season in a row, the Bobcats will face only two teams this year that owned a winning record last season.
PLAY ON: vs. Buffalo (11/14)
TOLEDO (Offense – 6/2, Defense – 6/1, 53 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: CANDLE IN THE WIND
For the first time in 13 years, the Rockets return as MAC champions. This year, though, they must replace 2017 MAC Player of the Year quarterback Logan Woodside, who set just about every Toledo passing record in the books. That being said, they will not be lacking at wide receiver as UT is the first team in NCAA history to return three players – Cody Thompson, Diontae Johnson and Jon’Vea Johnson – who have earned all-league honors and caught at least 10 TD passes in a season. In addition, the offensive line returns five players with starting experience. Like his predecessor Matt Campbell with 20 wins under his belt in his first two seasons at Toledo, Candle could move up to a Power 5 school sooner than later.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The straight-up winner In The Stats in Toledo’s games last season won every game on the scoreboard.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Miami Florida (9/15)
WESTERN MICHIGAN (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 5/3, 29 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: LES IS MORE
The warning signs were in place for first year head coach Tim Lester last season. Inheriting the winningest program in WMU history, he was left to ‘row the boat’ sans a stud QB and his three top WRs, including Corey Davis (a first-round pick in the NFL Draft). In addition, Lester lost his best offensive lineman, his top pass rusher and his top safety in the second game to season-ending knee injuries. The poor guy never stood a chance. To his credit, though, Lester reeled in the second-best class in the MAC with 19 three-star recruits. Add to that 74 career starts back on the OL to protect QB Jon Wassink, who shined over the second half of the season. Suddenly, the oars are back in the water.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Broncos were No. 2 in the nation in fumbles recovered last season.
PLAY ON: vs. Northern Illinois (11/20)
July 15, 2018
2018 MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE PREVIEW
FU Northwestern
A promising high school career for Damair Roberson, a dynamic 6-foot-2, 195-pound receiver/linebacker/return man and a three-star prospect, is over abruptly. He will miss his entire senior high school season this fall after re-injuring the same knee mid-season last year.
The betrayal that Roberson felt after learning the scholarship offer from Northwestern University was no longer valid really hurt. Even after the second injury, Western Michigan University honored its commitment to Roberson and kept its offer on the table. In turn, Roberson rewarded that loyalty with a commitment to the Broncos. Remember his name down the road.
Rivalries Abound
The MAC has its fair share of intense rivalries, including the Battle of the Bricks (Ohio vs. Miami), the Michigan MAC Trophy (Central, Eastern and Western Michigan), the Battle of I-75 (Toledo vs. Bowling Green) and the Wagon Wheel (Akron vs. Kent State). Rest assured, despite being Group of Fivers, these rivalries remain intense.
Bowl Busts
The MAC has disappointed in bowl games, especially the past 10 seasons as they are just 15-41 SU and 18-36-2 ATS overall.
Worse, in bowl games against foes coming off a loss the MAC has gone 3-21 SU and 4-19-1 ATS since 2008, including 0-6 SUATS as either a pick or a favorite. Yikes.
Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.
AKRON (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 9/3, 58 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: AS GOOD FORTUNE WOULD HAVE IT
The saying “you’re better off being lucky than good” applied in spades to the Zips last season when Terry Bowden’s troops went bowling despite surrendering 126 YPG more than they gained. However, thanks to a +10 net turnover ratio, and winning three games by a total of 5 points, Akron somehow won the MAC East title in 2017. They were ultimately obliterated by Toledo and Florida Atlantic in the MAC title and Boca Raton Bowl games, respectively, when they surrendered 95 points and 1,153 yards. To top it off, longtime DC Chuck Amato has retired. Fortunately, the Zips bring back an experienced crew of underclassmen. Soph QB Kato Nelson holds promise, but they’ll likely need Lady Luck to come calling again.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Zips head coach Bowden is 3-18 SU and 4-16-1 ATS as a home dog against .400 or greater opponents.
PLAY AGAINST: at Kent State (10/20)
BALL STATE (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 7/0, 51 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: A NEU APPROACH
After a 2-1 start last season under new coach Mike Neu, it appeared that Ball State was about to shake a 4-year losing skid. And then faster than you can say there goes Riley (QB Neal, 68% completions in his first three games, then done with an injury), the season went to hell in a hand bag thanks to a cruiseship of injuries as the Cardinals were forced to close out with a group of replacemant “neubies”. By season’s end, they were down to a 4th string freshman signal caller. Their starting WRs played a combined 5 games and only half of the starters on defense made it through unscathed. Neal’s 5,000 career passing yards are back along with a skill corps loaded with experience, led by RB James Gilbert. Take two.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Ball State freshmen started 32.2% of all games last season – the 2nd most in the nation.
PLAY ON: vs. Eastern Michigan (10/20)
BOWLING GREEN (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 8/2, 38 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: LO JINKS ERA OFF TO ROUGH START
When new coaches inherit 10-win programs, there is almost always no place to go but downhill. In Mike Jinks’ case, the Falcons have been on a slippery slalom run with just 4-and-2 win seasons in his tenure with Bowling Green. The good news is that after inking strong recruiting classes the last two years (26 three-star recruits), the course finally appears manageable. Sophomores (from Jinks’ first class) logged plenty of playing time last season, led by QB Jarret Doege (64% completions with 12 TDs and 3 INTs) and RB’s Andrew Clair and Matt Domer (819 combined rush yards on 6.5 YPR). FYI: Doege is the younger brother of former Texas Tech QB Seth Doege. With new DC Carl Pelini in tow, look for the ascent to begin.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Falcons have gone 37-5 SU in games in which they won the stats, and 5-30 SU in games in which they lost the stats over the last six years.
PLAY ON: vs. Akron (11/17)
BUFFALO (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 6/2, 51 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BREAK ON THROUGH TO THE OTHER SIDE
Call the 2017 season a steppingstone for the Bulls. A 6-6 record saw all six losses coming by a combined 29 points. Despite being forced to start three different quarterbacks due to injuries, they rolled up a school-record 5,183 yards of total offense while leading the MAC in passing yardage. It’s not often a team features a QB (Drew Anderson) that threw for a conference-record 597 yards and seven TDs in one game that may not be its starter. He’ll be in a heated battle with talented incumbent starter Tyree Jackson. On defense, the firepower comes from SR MLB Khalil Hodge who ranked second in the nation in tackles in 2017, and owns 277 total the last two seasons. No bull. This team looks primed for a breakthrough season.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Since joining the MAC in 1999, Buffalo is 9-59 SU versus winning opponents.
PLAY ON: vs. Akron (10/13)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN (Offense – 4/2, Defense – 6/2, 40 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: GIMME FIVE
After winning 7, 6, 7, 7 and 6 games each of the previous five seasons, the Chippewas broke rank last year to go 8-5, thanks largely to a 4-0 record in one-possession games, and a five-game season-ending win skein. Michigan transfer QB Shane Morris produced an eyebrow-raising 164.1 passer rating during his final five starts for the Chips last season, but he and four of his top five targets are gone. In addition, RB Jonathan Ward also stepped up down the stretch, rushing for 625 yards (7.1 YPR) over the same span late in the season. If 6’7” sophomore QB Tony Poljan can fill Morris’ shoes, CMU should reach its 5th straight bowl game in 2018. Stay tuned. STAT YOU WILL LIKE: CMU is 18-7 SU and 19-6 ATS away from Game Six out the last six years.
PASS
EASTERN MICHIGAN (Offense – 6/5, Defense – 7/2, 46 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: TURN UP THE GREEN
Head coach Chris Creighton has put his stamp on the EMU program. One of 14 active FBS coaches to record more than 150 wins, the 49-year-old Creighton guided the school to its first win in 126 seasons over a Big Ten or Power Five team last season. The Eagles’ 12 wins over the last two seasons is Eastern Michigan’s best two-year stretch since 1988-89. More important, nine of those 12 wins have been by a TD of less, meaning they’ve learned how to win close-call games. It’s no coincidence that Creighton’s teams at Drake sport the highest win percentage in school history (21-2 in home games). It’s now time he takes this program to the next level. Don’t bet against him.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Eastern Michigan allowed the fewest points (280) in school history last season.
PLAY ON: at Western Michigan (10/6)
KENT STATE (Offense – 7/3, Defense – 6/2, 49 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: FLASH: EVERYTHING NEW IS OLD AGAIN
The Paul Haynes experiment lasted five years before the Flashes finally pulled the plug, as a 14-41 record was all the proof they needed. What more could you expect from a team that finished dead last in Red Zone Defense last season, and a program that’s won more than six games in a season just once in the last 30 years. Enter new boss Sean Lewis, a former Dino Babers assistant at Syracuse. And with Lewis comes a major shift in offensive identity. But for a team that does not have the proper personnel on the roster to effectuate the planned attack – and one that might not find itself favored in any game this season – expecting immediate improvement is certainly a stretch for KSU.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Flashes were 4-40 SU and 9-34 ATS in games in which they scored less than 24 points under Paul Haynes.
PLAY ON: at Buffalo (11/6)
MIAMI-OHIO (Offense – *8/5, Defense – 8/3, 47 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: MY FAVORITE MARTIN
Despite a seventh consecutive losing season, the RedHawks are actually 11-8 in their last nineteen games overall – with five of the losses coming in one-possession games. Read: Miami is making strides under Chuck Martin who, unfortunately, will likely have to win this year if he wishes to return next season. The good news is Miami welcomes back 18 seniors, including one at nearly every position. A settled offensive line (an unstable one last year that started eight different linemen) operates in front of QB Gus Ragland (10-6 as a starter and an all MAC nominee). Coupled with a defense loaded with upperclassmen that finds seven of the top eight linemen, four of the top five linebackers and five of the top seven defensive back all returning, this team looks ready to turn the page.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Miami is 5-17 in one-possession games under Chuck Martin.
PLAY ON: vs. Marshall (9/1) - *KEY
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (Offense – *8/5, Defense – 6/2, 54 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BEWARE OF THE DOGS
Talk about a statistical anomaly: despite improving from 5 wins to 8 last season, the Huskies’ offense evaporated 85 YPG, whereas the defense finished No. 26 overall in the land, improving 113 YPG. The bad news this season is NIU’s first three non-conference games are against Power 5 bowlers, including visits to Florida State and Iowa. The good news is most of the starters from the stop-unit are back, including DL Sutton Smith who led the nation in Tackles For a Loss last season. Should they finally find continuity behind center (forced to use 8 different quarterbacks over the past 31 games) to go with the best Group of 5-defense while facing a daunting non-conference slate, NIU becomes the team to beat in the MAC this season.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Huskies are 30-10 SU and 27-12-1 ATS in their last forty road games.
PASS
OHIO (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 5/2, 50 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: FRANKLY SPEAKING
As we alluded to last year on this page, in Frank Solich’s 73 years on this earth, including 13 with the Bobcats, they’ve managed to win four MAC division titles while also going bowling 9 of the last ten years. It would have been five had they not folded during the final two games of last season. Safe to say, Solich is certainly battle tested. The former head coach and running back at Nebraska has raised OU from the depths of despair to a highly competitive program, one that seems to play an abundance of close games (21 decided by a TD or less the last four seasons). Star QB Nathan Rourke and RB A.J. Ouellette each return along with a boatload of other starters from an offense that improved 13 PPG last season. Mixed in with the Bobcats taking on 3rd easiest schedule of all Group of 5 schools in 2018 with foes going 59-88 (.401) last season, we frankly expect more from OU in 2018.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: For the second season in a row, the Bobcats will face only two teams this year that owned a winning record last season.
PLAY ON: vs. Buffalo (11/14)
TOLEDO (Offense – 6/2, Defense – 6/1, 53 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: CANDLE IN THE WIND
For the first time in 13 years, the Rockets return as MAC champions. This year, though, they must replace 2017 MAC Player of the Year quarterback Logan Woodside, who set just about every Toledo passing record in the books. That being said, they will not be lacking at wide receiver as UT is the first team in NCAA history to return three players – Cody Thompson, Diontae Johnson and Jon’Vea Johnson – who have earned all-league honors and caught at least 10 TD passes in a season. In addition, the offensive line returns five players with starting experience. Like his predecessor Matt Campbell with 20 wins under his belt in his first two seasons at Toledo, Candle could move up to a Power 5 school sooner than later.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The straight-up winner In The Stats in Toledo’s games last season won every game on the scoreboard.
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Miami Florida (9/15)
WESTERN MICHIGAN (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 5/3, 29 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: LES IS MORE
The warning signs were in place for first year head coach Tim Lester last season. Inheriting the winningest program in WMU history, he was left to ‘row the boat’ sans a stud QB and his three top WRs, including Corey Davis (a first-round pick in the NFL Draft). In addition, Lester lost his best offensive lineman, his top pass rusher and his top safety in the second game to season-ending knee injuries. The poor guy never stood a chance. To his credit, though, Lester reeled in the second-best class in the MAC with 19 three-star recruits. Add to that 74 career starts back on the OL to protect QB Jon Wassink, who shined over the second half of the season. Suddenly, the oars are back in the water.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Broncos were No. 2 in the nation in fumbles recovered last season.
PLAY ON: vs. Northern Illinois (11/20)
Miss State Breakdown
July 16, 2018
Expectations are understandably high for Joe Moorhead’s first season as the head coach at Mississippi State. The former Penn State offensive coordinator under James Franklin went 38-13 as HC at FCS Fordham from 2012-15. Moorhead takes over for Dan Mullen, who left Starkville to take the Florida gig after guiding the Bulldogs to eight consecutive bowl games during his nine-year tenure.
Moorhead walks into an outstanding situation. MSU returns nine starters on offense and eight on defense from a team that finished last year 9-4 straight up and 8-5 against the spread.
There are questions, though. The defense will have its fifth different coordinator in the past five years. Todd Grantham’s hire as DC before the 2017 campaign was a stroke of genius by Mullen. His 3-4 scheme turned around a stop unit in ’16 that allowed 31.8 points per game. On Grantham’s watch, the MSU defense gave up merely 20.9 PPG last season.
But this unit is going back to a 4-3 under veteran DC Bob Shoop, who was at Tennessee the last two years after running PSU’s defense in 2014 and ’15. Former South Alabama head coach was hired to coach special teams, while Moorhead’s first OC is Luke Getsy, who had been on the Green Bay Packers’ staff for the past four seasons, coaching WRs the last two years.
Another concern is the health of star quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, who sustained a dislocated ankle in the Egg Bowl loss to Ole Miss in late November. If he’s healthy, Fitzgerald is one of the SEC’s premier signal callers.
His strength is his ability to make big plays with his legs. Fitzgerald garnered third-team All-SEC honors in ’16 when he finished second in the SEC in rushing yards (1,375) and tops in rushing touchdowns (16). He also threw for 2,423 yards with a 21/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Fitzgerald, who averaged 7.1 yards per carry in ’16, ran for 984 yards and 14 TDs last season while averaging 6.1 YPC. He completed 55.6 percent of his passes for 1,782 yards with a 15/11 TD-INT ratio.
With Fitzgerald going down in the first half vs. Ole Miss, it gave back-up QB Keytaon Thompson a chance to gain valuable experience as a true freshman. He ran for 121 yards and one TD on 26 carries against the Rebels. Then in a 31-27 win over Lamar Jackson and Louisville at the Taxslayer Bowl, Thompson rushed 27 times for 147 yards and three TDs.
His throwing is still a work in progress. Thompson completed just 11-of-20 passes for 127 yards with one interception vs. U of L. For the season, he connected on 48.5 percent of his throws for 388 yards with a 2/2 TD-INT ratio. Thompson ran for 446 yards and six TDs with a 5.9 YPC average.
The Bulldogs bring back their top six rushers, including junior running back Aeris Williams, who ran for 1,108 yards and six TDs with a 4.7 YPC average. They also return their top two WRs in Jesse Jackson and Keith Mixon.
The entire defensive line returns, including a pair of first-team All-SEC selections in senior DE Montez Sweat and junior DT Jeffery Simmons. Sweat recorded 48 tackles, 10.5 sacks (tied for tops in the SEC), five tackles for loss and four QB hurries, while Simmons produced 60 tackles, five sacks, seven TFL’s, five QB hurries and one PBU.
Phil Steele’s preseason magazine ranks MSU’s defensive line as the nation’s third-best in his national unit rankings. Steele has Sweat ranked as the country’s sixth-best DE in terms of projection to next year’s NFL Draft, while Simmons is slotted fourth among DTs who will be draft-eligible in the spring of 2019.
Another defensive standout is senior safety Mark McLaurin, who led MSU in tackles (79) and was tied for the SEC lead in interceptions (six). He also had six PBU, two TFL’s and 1.5 sacks.
The non-conference schedule has three home games (vs. SF Austin, vs. Louisiana and La. Tech) and a Week 2 road assignment at Kansas State. Steele ranks MSU’s schedule as the fifth-toughest in the SEC and No. 32 nationally.
The foes from the SEC East are Kentucky and Florida. The Bulldogs travel to Lexington to face UK on Sept. 22 and then they host UF and their former coach on Sept. 29 at Scott Field.
Two teams get an extra week of preparation for MSU. The Ragin’ Cajuns have an open date before coming to Starkville, as does Texas A&M for an Oct. 27 date. The Bulldogs are in a situational advantage at LSU on Oct. 20 since their open date comes the prior weekend. They get the Aggies at home one week after going to Baton Rouge.
MSU has 12/1 odds to win the SEC at Sportsbook.ag. The offshore website has the Bulldogs listed as three-point favorites at KSU in its Games of the Year. They’re three-point home ‘chalk’ vs. the Gators, seven-point home underdogs vs. Auburn (with a -120 price), three-point underdogs at LSU, four-point home favorites (with a -120 price) vs. A&M, 19.5-point road ‘dogs at Alabama and 10.5-point road ‘chalk’ at Ole Miss.
Moorhead’s squad has a win total of eight (-120 ‘under’, -110 ‘over’). MSU’s odds to make the College Football Playoff are 15/1 and it has 70/1 odds to win the CFP. The Bulldogs’ opener vs. SF Austin is not lined for now, but gamblers will probably get a spread for that game about 24 hours before kickoff.
Steele’s power rankings have MSU at No. 16 and his projection is for the Bulldogs to finish the season at No. 21 come January. I have the Bulldogs at No. 13 in my preseason power rankings.
When I first broke down MSU’s schedule, I marked it 6-1 with five swing games. Those five include at KSU, vs. UF, vs. Auburn, at LSU and at Ole Miss. As I explained last week, I’m on Mississippi State +3 at LSU. I lean to the Bulldogs +7 vs. AU, but that game falls one week after hosting the Gators. With all the emotion that’ll go into that UF game going against Mullen, I simply worry that a major letdown scenario could be in play if MSU beats UF.
I’m going to call for MSU to win at LSU and avenge last year’s Egg Bowl defeat. We saw Auburn get extremely fortunate to escape Kansas State with a win in 2014. With some uncertainty about how healthy Fitzgerald will be in September, I’ll say that MSU gets clipped by the Wildcats on the road in Week 2.
As for the back-to-back home games vs. AU and UF, I’ll call for a split. I have no idea what sort of QB play the Gators are going to get but if it’s decent, UF’s got a good shot in Starkville because MSU might be a little too amped for that game. If the Bulldogs can get past the Gators, that’s a tough spot vs. the Tigers, who host a pair of weak teams in Arkansas and Southern Miss in the two contests beforehand.
I loved Moorhead’s offense at PSU, but it’s a ‘wait-and-see deal’ with him as a head coach. I’ll call for a 9-3 campaign, but I’m not recommending a play on ‘over’ eight for the win total. That’s because I like to have a 1.5-game cushion to make a play on a win total. In other words, MSU’ tally would have to be 7.5 for me to push an ‘over’ wager or 10.5 to tout an ‘under’ bet.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Here’s how Steele had MSU in his national unit rankings: No. 14 at QB, No. 19 at RB, No. 43 at WR, No. 20 on the offensive line, No. 3 on DL, No. 29 at LB, No. 18 at DB and No. 51 on special teams.
-- My rankings of MSU’s best players:
1-Simmons
2-Sweat
3-Fitzgerald
4-Williams
5-McLaurin
-- MSU has high hopes for DB Brian Cole, who redshirted last year after transferring from Michigan. Another transfer who adds depth to the defensive line is Chauncey Rivers, who started his career at Georgia before going the juco route.
-- The top two recruits in Moorhead’s first class are WRs. Stephen Guidry is expected to step into the starting lineup right away after the juco transfer chose MSU and participate in spring practice. The other is Devonta Jason, a four-star signee who left high school early to be in Starkville for spring practice.
-- Moorhead’s first recruiting haul was ranked 25th nationally by Rivals.com. There were 23 players signed, including seven four-star players and 14 three-stars.
-- MSU’s 2019 class is currently ranked 19th nationally at Rivals.com. There are 17 players verbally committed, including a quartet of four-star players and 11 three-stars. However, this class is ranked higher at 247Sports (12th as of 7/16/18).
-- 247Sports also has MSU assistant Mark Hudspeth ranked second nationally in its 2019 Recruiter Rankings. Hudspeth just completed a seven-year tenure as the HC at Louisiana before getting fired after a 5-7 campaign. He led the Ragin’ Cajuns to four straight 9-4 seasons to start his run with the school, including four straight wins at the New Orleans Bowl (three in which they were underdogs).
July 16, 2018
Expectations are understandably high for Joe Moorhead’s first season as the head coach at Mississippi State. The former Penn State offensive coordinator under James Franklin went 38-13 as HC at FCS Fordham from 2012-15. Moorhead takes over for Dan Mullen, who left Starkville to take the Florida gig after guiding the Bulldogs to eight consecutive bowl games during his nine-year tenure.
Moorhead walks into an outstanding situation. MSU returns nine starters on offense and eight on defense from a team that finished last year 9-4 straight up and 8-5 against the spread.
There are questions, though. The defense will have its fifth different coordinator in the past five years. Todd Grantham’s hire as DC before the 2017 campaign was a stroke of genius by Mullen. His 3-4 scheme turned around a stop unit in ’16 that allowed 31.8 points per game. On Grantham’s watch, the MSU defense gave up merely 20.9 PPG last season.
But this unit is going back to a 4-3 under veteran DC Bob Shoop, who was at Tennessee the last two years after running PSU’s defense in 2014 and ’15. Former South Alabama head coach was hired to coach special teams, while Moorhead’s first OC is Luke Getsy, who had been on the Green Bay Packers’ staff for the past four seasons, coaching WRs the last two years.
Another concern is the health of star quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, who sustained a dislocated ankle in the Egg Bowl loss to Ole Miss in late November. If he’s healthy, Fitzgerald is one of the SEC’s premier signal callers.
His strength is his ability to make big plays with his legs. Fitzgerald garnered third-team All-SEC honors in ’16 when he finished second in the SEC in rushing yards (1,375) and tops in rushing touchdowns (16). He also threw for 2,423 yards with a 21/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Fitzgerald, who averaged 7.1 yards per carry in ’16, ran for 984 yards and 14 TDs last season while averaging 6.1 YPC. He completed 55.6 percent of his passes for 1,782 yards with a 15/11 TD-INT ratio.
With Fitzgerald going down in the first half vs. Ole Miss, it gave back-up QB Keytaon Thompson a chance to gain valuable experience as a true freshman. He ran for 121 yards and one TD on 26 carries against the Rebels. Then in a 31-27 win over Lamar Jackson and Louisville at the Taxslayer Bowl, Thompson rushed 27 times for 147 yards and three TDs.
His throwing is still a work in progress. Thompson completed just 11-of-20 passes for 127 yards with one interception vs. U of L. For the season, he connected on 48.5 percent of his throws for 388 yards with a 2/2 TD-INT ratio. Thompson ran for 446 yards and six TDs with a 5.9 YPC average.
The Bulldogs bring back their top six rushers, including junior running back Aeris Williams, who ran for 1,108 yards and six TDs with a 4.7 YPC average. They also return their top two WRs in Jesse Jackson and Keith Mixon.
The entire defensive line returns, including a pair of first-team All-SEC selections in senior DE Montez Sweat and junior DT Jeffery Simmons. Sweat recorded 48 tackles, 10.5 sacks (tied for tops in the SEC), five tackles for loss and four QB hurries, while Simmons produced 60 tackles, five sacks, seven TFL’s, five QB hurries and one PBU.
Phil Steele’s preseason magazine ranks MSU’s defensive line as the nation’s third-best in his national unit rankings. Steele has Sweat ranked as the country’s sixth-best DE in terms of projection to next year’s NFL Draft, while Simmons is slotted fourth among DTs who will be draft-eligible in the spring of 2019.
Another defensive standout is senior safety Mark McLaurin, who led MSU in tackles (79) and was tied for the SEC lead in interceptions (six). He also had six PBU, two TFL’s and 1.5 sacks.
The non-conference schedule has three home games (vs. SF Austin, vs. Louisiana and La. Tech) and a Week 2 road assignment at Kansas State. Steele ranks MSU’s schedule as the fifth-toughest in the SEC and No. 32 nationally.
The foes from the SEC East are Kentucky and Florida. The Bulldogs travel to Lexington to face UK on Sept. 22 and then they host UF and their former coach on Sept. 29 at Scott Field.
Two teams get an extra week of preparation for MSU. The Ragin’ Cajuns have an open date before coming to Starkville, as does Texas A&M for an Oct. 27 date. The Bulldogs are in a situational advantage at LSU on Oct. 20 since their open date comes the prior weekend. They get the Aggies at home one week after going to Baton Rouge.
MSU has 12/1 odds to win the SEC at Sportsbook.ag. The offshore website has the Bulldogs listed as three-point favorites at KSU in its Games of the Year. They’re three-point home ‘chalk’ vs. the Gators, seven-point home underdogs vs. Auburn (with a -120 price), three-point underdogs at LSU, four-point home favorites (with a -120 price) vs. A&M, 19.5-point road ‘dogs at Alabama and 10.5-point road ‘chalk’ at Ole Miss.
Moorhead’s squad has a win total of eight (-120 ‘under’, -110 ‘over’). MSU’s odds to make the College Football Playoff are 15/1 and it has 70/1 odds to win the CFP. The Bulldogs’ opener vs. SF Austin is not lined for now, but gamblers will probably get a spread for that game about 24 hours before kickoff.
Steele’s power rankings have MSU at No. 16 and his projection is for the Bulldogs to finish the season at No. 21 come January. I have the Bulldogs at No. 13 in my preseason power rankings.
When I first broke down MSU’s schedule, I marked it 6-1 with five swing games. Those five include at KSU, vs. UF, vs. Auburn, at LSU and at Ole Miss. As I explained last week, I’m on Mississippi State +3 at LSU. I lean to the Bulldogs +7 vs. AU, but that game falls one week after hosting the Gators. With all the emotion that’ll go into that UF game going against Mullen, I simply worry that a major letdown scenario could be in play if MSU beats UF.
I’m going to call for MSU to win at LSU and avenge last year’s Egg Bowl defeat. We saw Auburn get extremely fortunate to escape Kansas State with a win in 2014. With some uncertainty about how healthy Fitzgerald will be in September, I’ll say that MSU gets clipped by the Wildcats on the road in Week 2.
As for the back-to-back home games vs. AU and UF, I’ll call for a split. I have no idea what sort of QB play the Gators are going to get but if it’s decent, UF’s got a good shot in Starkville because MSU might be a little too amped for that game. If the Bulldogs can get past the Gators, that’s a tough spot vs. the Tigers, who host a pair of weak teams in Arkansas and Southern Miss in the two contests beforehand.
I loved Moorhead’s offense at PSU, but it’s a ‘wait-and-see deal’ with him as a head coach. I’ll call for a 9-3 campaign, but I’m not recommending a play on ‘over’ eight for the win total. That’s because I like to have a 1.5-game cushion to make a play on a win total. In other words, MSU’ tally would have to be 7.5 for me to push an ‘over’ wager or 10.5 to tout an ‘under’ bet.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Here’s how Steele had MSU in his national unit rankings: No. 14 at QB, No. 19 at RB, No. 43 at WR, No. 20 on the offensive line, No. 3 on DL, No. 29 at LB, No. 18 at DB and No. 51 on special teams.
-- My rankings of MSU’s best players:
1-Simmons
2-Sweat
3-Fitzgerald
4-Williams
5-McLaurin
-- MSU has high hopes for DB Brian Cole, who redshirted last year after transferring from Michigan. Another transfer who adds depth to the defensive line is Chauncey Rivers, who started his career at Georgia before going the juco route.
-- The top two recruits in Moorhead’s first class are WRs. Stephen Guidry is expected to step into the starting lineup right away after the juco transfer chose MSU and participate in spring practice. The other is Devonta Jason, a four-star signee who left high school early to be in Starkville for spring practice.
-- Moorhead’s first recruiting haul was ranked 25th nationally by Rivals.com. There were 23 players signed, including seven four-star players and 14 three-stars.
-- MSU’s 2019 class is currently ranked 19th nationally at Rivals.com. There are 17 players verbally committed, including a quartet of four-star players and 11 three-stars. However, this class is ranked higher at 247Sports (12th as of 7/16/18).
-- 247Sports also has MSU assistant Mark Hudspeth ranked second nationally in its 2019 Recruiter Rankings. Hudspeth just completed a seven-year tenure as the HC at Louisiana before getting fired after a 5-7 campaign. He led the Ragin’ Cajuns to four straight 9-4 seasons to start his run with the school, including four straight wins at the New Orleans Bowl (three in which they were underdogs).
Tuesday’s 6-pack
— Best part of the All-Star Game will be seeing Nick Markakis getting introduced; 2,171 hits, 1,020 runs scored, but his very first All-Star Game.
— Phillies lead the NL East, despite being 7-11 against Marlins/Mets.
— They drew 38,071 fans in Washington Sunday for the Futures game.
— Each NFL team cashed in $255M in revenue sharing LY, up 4.9% from 2016.
— Suns’ Dragan Bender played 110:00 in summer league, took no foul shots. Not good.
— Umpire Ben May has worked 12 games behind plate this year; road team won all 12.
Quote of the Day
“Young guys…….YOU HAVE TO PLAY BASKETBALL IN THE SUMMERTIME TO BE GOOD AT PLAYING BASKETBALL……. ”
Damien Wilkins, who played 10 years in the NBA
Tuesday’s quiz
In the movie Rounders, what actor plays Russian gangster Teddy KGB?
Monday’s quiz
2003 was the last time two brothers played in the same All-Star Game, when Bret and Aaron Boone both made the All-Star team.
Sunday’s quiz
Texas Rangers were the Washington Senators before moving to the Lone Star State.
Tuesday’s List of 13: Some of my favorite (non-sports) movies:
1) Rounders— Movie about a law student/poker player; this movie is credited with helping the poker boom in the late 90’s.
2) Dave— Kevin Kline is hired to “stand-in” for the President because he looks just like him, but then the President has a stroke, and Kline has a new job.
3) The Bodyguard— Kevin Costner is a former Secret Service agent hired to protect a famous singer, who has a contract out on her.
4) Last Vegas— Four senior citizens who are lifelong friends head to Las Vegas for a bachelor party; their 70-year old friend is marrying a 30-year old. Morgan Freeman wins $87K playing blackjack, because, doesn’t everyone win in Vegas?
5) Begin Again— Down and out music producer discovers a talented young singer; together they produce an album, using New York City as the background.
6) Good Will Hunting— Robin Williams is a counselor who tries to help a young delinquent (who is also a Math genius) find his way.
7) The Verdict— Paul Newman is a down-on-his-luck lawyer who has a chance to win a big case and rehabilitate his career.
There is a scene in this movie that would never fly today; Newman’s character has a girlfriend in the movie- turns out she is a double-agent, working for the opposing lawyer to gain intel on the big case.
When Newman finds out, he meets the girlfriend in the lounge of a bar and decks her with one punch. Ouch.
8) Leap of Faith— Steve Martin runs amok as a traveling preacher; Debra Winger is his partner, Liam Neeson is the local sheriff trying to shut his act down. Meat Loaf is part of the music group that travels with the preacher.
9) Let It Ride— Richard Dreyfuss is a degenerate gambler who has one big day at the racetrack.
10) This Is Where I Leave You— After their father dies, four grown siblings return to their childhood home and live under the same roof together for a week.
11) Lincoln Lawyer— Matthew McConaughey plays a lawyer whose office is the back seat of his Lincoln Continental.
12) Prince of Tides— Nick Nolte is a high school football coach from South Carolina who travels to New York and falls for his sister’s therapist (Barbra Streisand).
13) One More Time— Christopher Walken is a past-his-prime lounge singer trying for one last comeback.
— Best part of the All-Star Game will be seeing Nick Markakis getting introduced; 2,171 hits, 1,020 runs scored, but his very first All-Star Game.
— Phillies lead the NL East, despite being 7-11 against Marlins/Mets.
— They drew 38,071 fans in Washington Sunday for the Futures game.
— Each NFL team cashed in $255M in revenue sharing LY, up 4.9% from 2016.
— Suns’ Dragan Bender played 110:00 in summer league, took no foul shots. Not good.
— Umpire Ben May has worked 12 games behind plate this year; road team won all 12.
Quote of the Day
“Young guys…….YOU HAVE TO PLAY BASKETBALL IN THE SUMMERTIME TO BE GOOD AT PLAYING BASKETBALL……. ”
Damien Wilkins, who played 10 years in the NBA
Tuesday’s quiz
In the movie Rounders, what actor plays Russian gangster Teddy KGB?
Monday’s quiz
2003 was the last time two brothers played in the same All-Star Game, when Bret and Aaron Boone both made the All-Star team.
Sunday’s quiz
Texas Rangers were the Washington Senators before moving to the Lone Star State.
Tuesday’s List of 13: Some of my favorite (non-sports) movies:
1) Rounders— Movie about a law student/poker player; this movie is credited with helping the poker boom in the late 90’s.
2) Dave— Kevin Kline is hired to “stand-in” for the President because he looks just like him, but then the President has a stroke, and Kline has a new job.
3) The Bodyguard— Kevin Costner is a former Secret Service agent hired to protect a famous singer, who has a contract out on her.
4) Last Vegas— Four senior citizens who are lifelong friends head to Las Vegas for a bachelor party; their 70-year old friend is marrying a 30-year old. Morgan Freeman wins $87K playing blackjack, because, doesn’t everyone win in Vegas?
5) Begin Again— Down and out music producer discovers a talented young singer; together they produce an album, using New York City as the background.
6) Good Will Hunting— Robin Williams is a counselor who tries to help a young delinquent (who is also a Math genius) find his way.
7) The Verdict— Paul Newman is a down-on-his-luck lawyer who has a chance to win a big case and rehabilitate his career.
There is a scene in this movie that would never fly today; Newman’s character has a girlfriend in the movie- turns out she is a double-agent, working for the opposing lawyer to gain intel on the big case.
When Newman finds out, he meets the girlfriend in the lounge of a bar and decks her with one punch. Ouch.
8) Leap of Faith— Steve Martin runs amok as a traveling preacher; Debra Winger is his partner, Liam Neeson is the local sheriff trying to shut his act down. Meat Loaf is part of the music group that travels with the preacher.
9) Let It Ride— Richard Dreyfuss is a degenerate gambler who has one big day at the racetrack.
10) This Is Where I Leave You— After their father dies, four grown siblings return to their childhood home and live under the same roof together for a week.
11) Lincoln Lawyer— Matthew McConaughey plays a lawyer whose office is the back seat of his Lincoln Continental.
12) Prince of Tides— Nick Nolte is a high school football coach from South Carolina who travels to New York and falls for his sister’s therapist (Barbra Streisand).
13) One More Time— Christopher Walken is a past-his-prime lounge singer trying for one last comeback.
Handicapping Iowa (7.5)
July 17, 2018
The Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off a very inconsistent season, as they had huge highs, like a win over Ohio State, but bad lows, including a loss to Purdue. Head coach Kirk Ferentz must find a way to replace a number of key players, but Iowa does return quarterback Nate Stanley.
The Hawkeyes have a favorable schedule in 2018 that has them playing almost all of their tough opponents at Kinnick Stadium, and Iowa also avoids Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State.
Let’s look at the Hawkeyes schedule to see if they will go over or under their win total of 7.5.
Iowa Hawkeyes 2018 Regular Season Win Total
Over 7.5 (-115)
Under 7.5 (-115)
Iowa Hawkeyes 2018 Schedule Analysis
Sept. 1 vs. Northern Illinois
The Hawkeyes don’t get a cupcake in the opener, but the Hawkeyes have not lost a home opener since 2013. The opponent just happened to be Northern Illinois, but the Huskies are not as good now as they were five years ago.
Sept. 8 vs. Iowa State
The Hawkeyes have won the last three in this rivalry matchup, including 44-41 last season. The Cyclones have won two of the last three at Iowa, but the Hawkeyes have more talent than Iowa State and should get this win.
Sept. 15 vs. Northern Iowa
This is another instate game, although not really a rivalry game. The Hawkeyes won’t be overlooking Northern Iowa, as they only won by eight points in this matchup four years ago.
Sept. 22 vs. Wisconsin
The first big game of the season for Iowa is at home, as they host the Badgers. This should be a defensive war and the winner will take the early lead in the division.
Oct. 6 at Minnesota
The first road game of the season for the Hawkeyes doesn’t come until October. They get a bye to prepare and Iowa has won the last three and five of the last six in the series.
Oct. 13 at Indiana
These teams have not played since 2015, but Iowa has dominated the series of late, winning six of the last seven. This should be a road win for the Hawkeyes.
Oct. 20 vs. Maryland
The Hawkeyes return home for what should be an easy matchup against the Terps. The Terps have won just one road game against a Big Ten West team since they joined the conference.
Oct. 27 at Penn State
The toughest road game of the season for Iowa is at Penn State in late October. The Hawkeyes nearly beat Penn State last season but the Nittany Lions got a last second game winning TD pass. The Hawkeyes have lost their last two at Penn State and neither game was close.
Nov. 3 at Purdue
This could be a dangerous game for Iowa, as it is the fourth road game in five weeks. Iowa will be playing with revenge though, as they were upset at home last year by the Boilermakers.
Nov. 10 vs. Northwestern
This is not an automatic home win for Iowa, as the Wildcats have won the last two meetings in this series. This could be the second-toughest home game of the season for the Hawkeyes.
Nov. 17 at Illinois
The Hawkeyes have dominated this series of late, winning four straight and eight of the last nine. This should be a good road win for the Hawkeyes.
Nov. 23 vs. Nebraska
The regular season finale is on a Friday and it could be a huge game for both teams in the division. The Cornhuskers will have a new head coach this season in Scott Frost and he will have his system fully in place by the time this game rolls around.
2018 Iowa Hawkeyes Win Total Prediction
The Hawkeyes have a very favorable schedule, as they really only have two games in which they should be listed as underdogs, and one of those games is at home. If the Hawkeyes win their other 10 games they would go 10-2 and easily go over their win total of 7.5. Even if they drop a couple of those games they would still go 8-4 and go over their win total for the 2018 regular season.
July 17, 2018
The Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off a very inconsistent season, as they had huge highs, like a win over Ohio State, but bad lows, including a loss to Purdue. Head coach Kirk Ferentz must find a way to replace a number of key players, but Iowa does return quarterback Nate Stanley.
The Hawkeyes have a favorable schedule in 2018 that has them playing almost all of their tough opponents at Kinnick Stadium, and Iowa also avoids Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State.
Let’s look at the Hawkeyes schedule to see if they will go over or under their win total of 7.5.
Iowa Hawkeyes 2018 Regular Season Win Total
Over 7.5 (-115)
Under 7.5 (-115)
Iowa Hawkeyes 2018 Schedule Analysis
Sept. 1 vs. Northern Illinois
The Hawkeyes don’t get a cupcake in the opener, but the Hawkeyes have not lost a home opener since 2013. The opponent just happened to be Northern Illinois, but the Huskies are not as good now as they were five years ago.
Sept. 8 vs. Iowa State
The Hawkeyes have won the last three in this rivalry matchup, including 44-41 last season. The Cyclones have won two of the last three at Iowa, but the Hawkeyes have more talent than Iowa State and should get this win.
Sept. 15 vs. Northern Iowa
This is another instate game, although not really a rivalry game. The Hawkeyes won’t be overlooking Northern Iowa, as they only won by eight points in this matchup four years ago.
Sept. 22 vs. Wisconsin
The first big game of the season for Iowa is at home, as they host the Badgers. This should be a defensive war and the winner will take the early lead in the division.
Oct. 6 at Minnesota
The first road game of the season for the Hawkeyes doesn’t come until October. They get a bye to prepare and Iowa has won the last three and five of the last six in the series.
Oct. 13 at Indiana
These teams have not played since 2015, but Iowa has dominated the series of late, winning six of the last seven. This should be a road win for the Hawkeyes.
Oct. 20 vs. Maryland
The Hawkeyes return home for what should be an easy matchup against the Terps. The Terps have won just one road game against a Big Ten West team since they joined the conference.
Oct. 27 at Penn State
The toughest road game of the season for Iowa is at Penn State in late October. The Hawkeyes nearly beat Penn State last season but the Nittany Lions got a last second game winning TD pass. The Hawkeyes have lost their last two at Penn State and neither game was close.
Nov. 3 at Purdue
This could be a dangerous game for Iowa, as it is the fourth road game in five weeks. Iowa will be playing with revenge though, as they were upset at home last year by the Boilermakers.
Nov. 10 vs. Northwestern
This is not an automatic home win for Iowa, as the Wildcats have won the last two meetings in this series. This could be the second-toughest home game of the season for the Hawkeyes.
Nov. 17 at Illinois
The Hawkeyes have dominated this series of late, winning four straight and eight of the last nine. This should be a good road win for the Hawkeyes.
Nov. 23 vs. Nebraska
The regular season finale is on a Friday and it could be a huge game for both teams in the division. The Cornhuskers will have a new head coach this season in Scott Frost and he will have his system fully in place by the time this game rolls around.
2018 Iowa Hawkeyes Win Total Prediction
The Hawkeyes have a very favorable schedule, as they really only have two games in which they should be listed as underdogs, and one of those games is at home. If the Hawkeyes win their other 10 games they would go 10-2 and easily go over their win total of 7.5. Even if they drop a couple of those games they would still go 8-4 and go over their win total for the 2018 regular season.
