8/5 MLB Discussion

[buffettgambler]

For the Bosox-Yankees game tomorrow to see which side holds the value i think has to do with today's game depending on bullpen use from both teams.

Good point. However, I think that this will cause the Red Sox being more undervalued or less undervalued than they currently are, as it is not material enough to strucually change value from one team to another.

It will be interesting to see how both the Yankees and Red Sox manager their bullpens tonight, as both SP's for todays and tommorrows games have had short leashes on them.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Looks like i am going to respect the market liking on the Blue Jays. There is some concerns for the Yankees tonight.

I don't know what the market is thinking about the Nationals they are either underestimating Lannan or their current form with the bats.

 

[tommyjohn44]

Based on one the market did to the Marlins on todays game, I would be shocked if the market does not bring up the current no-vig price on Volstad that currently resides at -114. The no-vig on the tommorrows Marlins game should close 10% higher. If not, they warrant a large play.

I have a chase in place right now on the Marlins but really didn't think the market would move the price this much on them today. It feels like the public is trying to make up for the horrific beating they took last night on the Marlins. I'm thinking of laying off and getting a similar price (my book is currently at -113 on tonight's game) on a more favorable matchup for the fish tomorrow.

Looks like medium plays on White Sox and Dodgers.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

I have a chase in place right now on the Marlins but really didn't think the market would move the price this much on them today. It feels like the public is trying to make up for the horrific beating they took last night on the Marlins. I'm thinking of laying off and getting a similar price (my book is currently at -113 on tonight's game) on a more favorable matchup for the fish tomorrow.

Looks like medium plays on White Sox and Dodgers.

What makes you like Dodgers at this price? How you feel for the pitching match-up?

 

[tommyjohn44]

What makes you like Dodgers at this price? How you feel for the pitching match-up?

Looper with a 5.6 ERA on the road. Lefties are hitting .303 against him and the Dodgers will lead off with 2 lefties in Furcal and Ethier and also have lefties in Hudson (assuming he's back tonight) and Loney later on in the lineup. This should give the Dodgers plenty of chances to get men on and move them around.

Despite Schmidt being less than stellar this year, he had a great start his last time out and lefties are hitting .130 against him. While the Brewers feature a lineup full of RH bats, their power revolves around the man with a grudge to settle tonight in Prince Fielder. I'm counting on Schmidt to keep him at bay. Noteable Brewers hitters vs JS:

Mike Cameron...3 for 26 (.115)
Prince Fielder...2 for 10 (.200)
Bill Hall...2 for 15 (.133)
JJ Hardy...0 for 6 (.000)
Craig Counsell...9 for 58 (.155)
Jason Kendall...3 for 22 (.136)

I might move it back to a 1 unit play. Right now I'm wavering between a 1 or 2 unit play so I'll wait and see if Hudson is back in the lineup before making a play.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Looper with a 5.6 ERA on the road. Lefties are hitting .303 against him and the Dodgers will lead off with 2 lefties in Furcal and Ethier and also have lefties in Hudson (assuming he's back tonight) and Loney later on in the lineup. This should give the Dodgers plenty of chances to get men on and move them around.

Despite Schmidt being less than stellar this year, he had a great start his last time out and lefties are hitting .130 against him. While the Brewers feature a lineup full of RH bats, their power revolves around the man with a grudge to settle tonight in Prince Fielder. I'm counting on Schmidt to keep him at bay. Noteable Brewers hitters vs JS:

Mike Cameron...3 for 26 (.115)
Prince Fielder...2 for 10 (.200)
Bill Hall...2 for 15 (.133)
JJ Hardy...0 for 6 (.000)
Craig Counsell...9 for 58 (.155)
Jason Kendall...3 for 22 (.136)

I might move it back to a 1 unit play. Right now I'm wavering between a 1 or 2 unit play so I'll wait and see if Hudson is back in the lineup before making a play.

Cool. Thanks for taking the time out.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Tommy Hanson remains to struggle badly against left hand batters. There might be a chance he'll pitch against the Phillies. If so hopefully there will be value against him.

 

[buffettgambler]

Material downgrade in the Yankees intrinsic value. Will have to buy back a about 25% of my original (medium) position for a loss. Currently a small play.

Small downgrade in the Orioles intrinsic value. Bought back about 10% of my original position for a profitable scalp due to the favorable line move. Still a large play for me.

Downgrade in the Red Sox intrinsic value. However, the market moved this line slighly higher than warranted. Justed entered a small play on the Red Sox at ~+135

 

[buffettgambler]

Buyback pressure on the Nats after the huge line swing. Will take the Nats for a small play as an underdog.

By the way, the market is starting to move the no-vig up on tommorrows Marlins game as expected.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Red Sox +135 are a small play for me as well.

Nationals +108 small/med

 

[buffettgambler]

Upgrade on the DBacks intrinsic worth. Added some more exposure. Now a medium play.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Buyback pressure on the Nats after the huge line swing. Will take the Nats for a small play as an underdog.

By the way, the market is starting to move the no-vig up on tommorrows Marlins game as expected.

Missed out on the Marlins, would you still buy at -127?

 

[buffettgambler]

Material upgrade on the Phillies intrinsic worth. The market has elected to bid down their price. Opening a medium position on them.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

O's tomorrow are looking like a nice price also for a small or medium play.

 

[buffettgambler]

Missed out on the Marlins, would you still buy at -127?

Yes, they are undervalued at that price, and I think the market will pick it off.

 

[buffettgambler]

As mentioned last night, I entered a position on Harden as a trading vehicle right on the open as the opening price significantly lacked commensurability with the prior two games between. After a bid up of 30 plus cents, I exited the position with a nice scalp.

Just opened a small position on the Reds, as the market has gone overboard with their ramp job.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Blackburn overvalued? Is he getting respect for what he did early in the season or am i missing something?

 

[buffettgambler]

O's tomorrow are looking like a nice price also for a small or medium play.

Exactly. Undervalued by not nearly as much as today.

 

[buffettgambler]

Blackburn overvalued? Is he getting respect for what he did early in the season or am i missing something?

The Indians are very undervalued tommorrow. However, I think the market has been starting to process Blackburns regression, and this is predominately a product of the very bearish sentiment on Carmona and consistent small bearish sentiment on the Indians team as a whole.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Liking the lineup in the Reds game as Scott Rolen is in, small to win medium play.