7-30

[TheHungerForMore]

Buffett, what were the opening lines to Twins, Rays and Dodgers game?

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Is the Market overestimating Phillies offense over the Giants. Does Sanchez have upside here? Trying to find one of the reasons to back the best team in the league at home spilts (record) as home dogs.

 

[buffettgambler]

Is the Market overestimating Phillies offense over the Giants. Does Sanchez have upside here? Trying to find one of the reasons to back the best team in the league at home spilts (record) as home dogs.

In a previous post, I stated the Phillies were undervalued tommorrow. That was based on a bad line a book put out that is now taken down. Having said that, the Phillies appear to be coming with an equivlant slight premium in today's game and tommorrows. Given my bearish sentiment on the Giants offense and my bearish sentiment on the sustainability of the Giants disparity of home/away productivity, my guess is value is being created on the on the different valuation I have on the disparity of bullpen (and liklihood of their impact on the outcome of the game) vs. the marketplace.

That said, this is potentially a bad matchup for Sanchez, as patient lineups have bode well against him.

 

[buffettgambler]

Buffett, what were the opening lines to Twins, Rays and Dodgers game?

The no-vig opening price on the Twins was -118
The no-vig opening price on the Rays was -182
The no vig opening price on the Dodgers was +151

The current no vig price will vary based on the preferred weighted average prices you use on sportsbooks you give credence to, but the market has already started bidding up this prices higher.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

In a previous post, I stated the Phillies were undervalued tommorrow. That was based on a bad line a book put out that is now taken down. Having said that, the Phillies appear to be coming with an equivlant slight premium in today's game and tommorrows. Given my bearish sentiment on the Giants offense and my bearish sentiment on the sustainability of the Giants disparity of home/away productivity, my guess is value is being created on the on the different valuation I have on the disparity of bullpen (and liklihood of their impact on the outcome of the game) vs. the marketplace.

That said, this is potentially a bad matchup for Sanchez, as patient lineups have bode well against him.

Thanks. Makes sense. I am also bearish with Giants offense. It sucks that there was +100 out there earlier and i missed out.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

The no-vig opening price on the Twins was -118
The no-vig opening price on the Rays was -182
The no vig opening price on the Dodgers was +151

The current no vig price will vary based on the preferred weighted average prices you use on sportsbooks you give credence to, but the market has already started bidding up this prices higher.

Wow Twins were -118? I missed out.

Rays at -182 was soft opening line. You snooze you lose.

 

[buffettgambler]

Wow Twins were -118? I missed out.

Rays at -182 was soft opening line. You snooze you lose.

Nope, that was the no-vig line, or the implied probablity the opening suggested they had of winning that game.
They opened at the Greek at -130 and got bid up 5 minutes later to -140.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Mike Gonzales blowing the hold wasn't a bad thing for us even though it made us sweat, now both teams have used most of their bullpen. Most likely will be going against the Braves tomorrow. Will have to look into the Cubs/Marlins one.

Hopefully Yankees/White Sox stays under and it'll be a very nice bounce back for me as both top plays win.