Looking at the opens, tommorrows card looks very compelling. There may be some nice bargains once the lower vig shops put out their lines.
Oddsmakers look very bearish right now on two veteran pitchers coming off prolonged injuries and have yet to get it right since their comeback. The Greek suggesting Schmidts no-vig line should be +165? Granted this is a combination of Schmidt's bearish sentiment coupled with an overvaluation of Hanson, but this line is extremely off. I curiosity is piqued with where the market sends this one.
The other pitcher I was referring to was Smoltz. He just isn't fooling anyone, and oddsmakers are pricing him as if it has very little chance to get things on track. How about Guthrie though? He has not proven he can right the ship after a poor first half, got beat up against the Sox in his last outing, got dominated against them in his other outing agianst them this year, and is allowing a home run very 11.2 outs against left handed bats- not something you want pitching in that park against the Red Sox lineup.
The oddsmakers opened up the today's Giants game with very small value on the Giants. Tommorrow they are providing the Phillies with decent value, which confuses me. Blanton has been one of the hotter pitchers in the leauge his last few starts, and the league has apparently figured out Sadowski.
No suprised oddsmakers elected to inflate Jackson against Carmona. I want to see if the market is willing to back Carmona at this price.
The Angels/Twins game is interesting. Both pitchers are really struggling of late, and oddsmakers have overvalued both of them during their downard slide. The elected to keep Santana overvalued in this one. I want to see what the Angels can do now that they are one the road and facing a decent team.
I want to see what the market does with the Rays line. I am sure oddsmakers wanted to open this one higher, but couldnt with the inherent risk Price is currently providing. The no-vig line is offering value on the Rays.
Oddsmakers were starting to relfate Harden's price with his improvement on the mound. However, it looks like they are once agian opening up an opportunity to back him in this one. It looks like the Marlins are becoming a secularly inflated team.
Are the Jays finally starting to come undervalued? Tomorrows price suggest so. At the beginng of the year they were undervalued. The market fell in love with this team and made them an overvalued entity for two months. Recent series suggest they were becoming fairly valued as the market appeared to give up on this team. Tommorrows game suggest oddsmakers are not actually bearish on this team, and it may be time to start backing them again.
Oddsmakers look very bearish right now on two veteran pitchers coming off prolonged injuries and have yet to get it right since their comeback. The Greek suggesting Schmidts no-vig line should be +165? Granted this is a combination of Schmidt's bearish sentiment coupled with an overvaluation of Hanson, but this line is extremely off. I curiosity is piqued with where the market sends this one.
The other pitcher I was referring to was Smoltz. He just isn't fooling anyone, and oddsmakers are pricing him as if it has very little chance to get things on track. How about Guthrie though? He has not proven he can right the ship after a poor first half, got beat up against the Sox in his last outing, got dominated against them in his other outing agianst them this year, and is allowing a home run very 11.2 outs against left handed bats- not something you want pitching in that park against the Red Sox lineup.
The oddsmakers opened up the today's Giants game with very small value on the Giants. Tommorrow they are providing the Phillies with decent value, which confuses me. Blanton has been one of the hotter pitchers in the leauge his last few starts, and the league has apparently figured out Sadowski.
No suprised oddsmakers elected to inflate Jackson against Carmona. I want to see if the market is willing to back Carmona at this price.
The Angels/Twins game is interesting. Both pitchers are really struggling of late, and oddsmakers have overvalued both of them during their downard slide. The elected to keep Santana overvalued in this one. I want to see what the Angels can do now that they are one the road and facing a decent team.
I want to see what the market does with the Rays line. I am sure oddsmakers wanted to open this one higher, but couldnt with the inherent risk Price is currently providing. The no-vig line is offering value on the Rays.
Oddsmakers were starting to relfate Harden's price with his improvement on the mound. However, it looks like they are once agian opening up an opportunity to back him in this one. It looks like the Marlins are becoming a secularly inflated team.
Are the Jays finally starting to come undervalued? Tomorrows price suggest so. At the beginng of the year they were undervalued. The market fell in love with this team and made them an overvalued entity for two months. Recent series suggest they were becoming fairly valued as the market appeared to give up on this team. Tommorrows game suggest oddsmakers are not actually bearish on this team, and it may be time to start backing them again.
Buffett,
Really liking the Twins in this spot. I think they understand that the Angels have been playing over their head and against weaker opponents at home and now go on the road to face a good hitting home Twins team with a decent pitcher in Blackburn on the mound.
Do you have Jackson vs Carmona? I see Sowers all of over the place. Read that replacing start either Friday or Saturday. This is confirmed?
Thanks for Baltimore as I was on Milwaukee and Chicago. Although when Ramirez wasn't in lineup I offset some of the play. They had a number of hitters who were successful vs Ortiz.
As for Tomorrow I like the idea that you've created a forum to discuss tomorrow's value, as I'm actually going to be at Saratoga, NY (Horse racing for the weekend). I will be writing in as much as possible and look forward to discussing the market.
I'm looking at the market tonight and maybe a play on Colorado and LA Dodgers.
Really liking the Twins in this spot. I think they understand that the Angels have been playing over their head and against weaker opponents at home and now go on the road to face a good hitting home Twins team with a decent pitcher in Blackburn on the mound.
Do you have Jackson vs Carmona? I see Sowers all of over the place. Read that replacing start either Friday or Saturday. This is confirmed?
Thanks for Baltimore as I was on Milwaukee and Chicago. Although when Ramirez wasn't in lineup I offset some of the play. They had a number of hitters who were successful vs Ortiz.
As for Tomorrow I like the idea that you've created a forum to discuss tomorrow's value, as I'm actually going to be at Saratoga, NY (Horse racing for the weekend). I will be writing in as much as possible and look forward to discussing the market.
I'm looking at the market tonight and maybe a play on Colorado and LA Dodgers.
My sources all point to Carmona as the pitcher.
Looks like you are heading into the later games with a nice profit under your belt.
If one is a believer that the market is a more efficient discounter of information vs. oddsmakers, would it not make sense to talk about games when pricing efficiency is at its lowest? No suprise you don't see this much on forums though, as sharps would see it counterproductive due to the contraints of lower limits and fewer outs upon dissemination, and the majority of posters on these forums don't care about tommorrow's card, as they are more concerned about what they can bet on the next five minutes to get their money back or "double up or nothing on".
I if there was an opportunity to find value in betting the Rockies in game 2, it has come and gone. The market has really bid up their price right now, and possibly has created value on the Mets. I would be interested to see the derivation of the intrinsic value of people finding value at the Rockies at current market price.
I got in a small/medium play on the Dogers last night at +103. I would not bet them at the current market price unless I downgrade the Cardinals valuation due to any lineup deviations.
Have fun this weekend at the races.
Ausmus is an 8 cent downgrade at the plate in this particular match up/1 cent upgrade behind the plate. Martin has a large value over replacement.
Schumaker in this particular game is an upgrade over projection as well. The downgrade in the Dodgers price coupled with the line movement in their direction. The Dodgers are at best fairly valued right now, and I will be buying back my entire +103 position I had on them on the overnight for an arb out.
Another note on the Dodgers- if their trade for Sherill holds up, they have just become the best bullpen in the NL. Kuo returning to the pen was a huge upgrade already and now might fly under the radar with the addition of another soutpaw. The Dodgers once possesed a weak underbelly. Their recent upgrade in the backend of the pen pushed down some decent arms into the underbelly. The bullpen is solid.
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<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> Originally Posted by Gordon Gekko
Got them at +129. Is this due to catcher and Fowler out of lineup?
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Yes, partially. A few other variables as well. Ianetta's not being in the lineup was quantified as a 75% on the overnight though (being a doubleheader).
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</td></tr></tbody></table>I also had Schnieder with an above 50% chance of being in the linuep given Santos playing in game one.. Downgrade vs. Santos vs. Lefties. Cora not in is an updgrade. Tatis was given a 75% on the overnight. Him in vs. Del La Rosa is an upgrade. Stewart out is a downgrade (despite the season he is having).
Fogg and Rincon both not likely available due to game 1 pitch count. A weak underbelly just got a lot weaker. Probably of that getting exposed is medium/high given De La Rosa's pitch count per inning.
Probability of the Mets bullpen being replinished after game was not 100% likely before the game. Redding may be the only pithcher not avaiable- a plus when dealing with a pitcher not built to eat up innnings in Niese. Those who valued the Rockies the same on the overnight vs. current pricing are either lazy or misinformed.
Fogg and Rincon both not likely available due to game 1 pitch count. A weak underbelly just got a lot weaker. Probably of that getting exposed is medium/high given De La Rosa's pitch count per inning.
Probability of the Mets bullpen being replinished after game was not 100% likely before the game. Redding may be the only pithcher not avaiable- a plus when dealing with a pitcher not built to eat up innnings in Niese. Those who valued the Rockies the same on the overnight vs. current pricing are either lazy or misinformed.
