2nd half betting strategies?

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Oh boy!
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cincy_ said:
I agree it is profitable now, but I am not sure about the long run ... I have seen a tendency these days for the books to have low totals during these situations. There will come a point when the totals are so low for these 2nd halfs, it won't be a good bet anymore.

Tonight's game fits that situation. The 2nd-half total is 16.5. I've been seeing them around 17 or so.
 

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Pancho Sanza said:
What is the specific bet you want to make?

Only $100?:howdy:

You name the price. You send the money to a mod and I will too. Just don't run and hide. I simply said $100 as a random figure. If you want to make it a bigger amount, tell me how much you have sent and I will do the same.
 

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Pancho Sanza said:
What is the specific bet you want to make?

Only $100?:howdy:

Until you send the money, I will consider you to be a loser with a big mouth and leave it at that. This is my final reply until we get Pancho to walk the walk.
 

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Fishhead said:
Good topic here.

By the way, these are the type of threads that I personally would like to see more of in the OFFSHORE forum.

:103631605
I have a good reason inside my head that i won't share on why its not a good idea to have these kinds of threads. You can ask me off of the forum if you want
 

Oh boy!
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quantumleap said:
Tonight's game fits that situation. The 2nd-half total is 16.5. I've been seeing them around 17 or so.

If you bet the under 17 you would have lost. I think overall it's a winning bet though.
 

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Good thing i was at a movie tonight or i would've had a loser in this one. Although it did go over with a defensive td with 31 seconds left.


I am assuming you do not think this is a good topic because it gives a heads up to the books...well i'm willing to say that books know most systems and adjust lines accordingly. I wouldn't follow the 2nd half system blindly but it provides great opportunities at times.
 

Oh boy!
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BetIt said:
Good thing i was at a movie tonight or i would've had a loser in this one. Although it did go over with a defensive td with 31 seconds left.


I am assuming you do not think this is a good topic because it gives a heads up to the books...well i'm willing to say that books know most systems and adjust lines accordingly. I wouldn't follow the 2nd half system blindly but it provides great opportunities at times.

Most of the times I've seen it the line is at 17 or above so I wonder how much the books adjust it. Tonight it was at 16.5 but you could find 17 @ -140 at some books.
 

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pinnacle adjusts it on the juice level but another book out there doesn't (squarest of square books) and sometimes even shades it higher.
 

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cincy_ said:
Until you send the money, I will consider you to be a loser with a big mouth and leave it at that. This is my final reply until we get Pancho to walk the walk.

You want me to send the money without telling me what were betting on?

Tell me the bet first and I'm willing to bet $5000 if I find your full of shit.

Please be specific.
 

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BetIt said:
I am assuming you do not think this is a good topic because it gives a heads up to the books...well i'm willing to say that books know most systems and adjust lines accordingly. I wouldn't follow the 2nd half system blindly but it provides great opportunities at times.


Might not have been the books he was referring to but perhaps other players. Only so big of a pie that can be cut. Personally I don't think this thread is bad but I do see stuff that is freely shared on the forums by some players that shouldn't be IMO.
 

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Pancho Sanza said:
You want me to send the money without telling me what were betting on?

Tell me the bet first and I'm willing to bet $5000 if I find your full of shit.

Please be specific.

Read my posts and figure it out, Einstein.

Or how about this? You did the accusing, so how about you tell me what we bet on? We can bet on whatever you said I didn't have.

You're going to run and hide anyways, and we all know that.

Big mouth, small balls.
 

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cincy_ said:
Read my posts and figure it out, Einstein.

Or how about this? You did the accusing, so how about you tell me what we bet on? We can bet on whatever you said I didn't have.

You're going to run and hide anyways, and we all know that.

Big mouth, small balls.


Whatever dipshit.

You made a blanket statement then you fudged it a bit, now you want me to set the bet?

Sounds like you don't know what your'e talking about to me, which was what I knew all along.

Give me the bet or dont waste my time.
 

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Pancho Sanza said:
Whatever dipshit.

You made a blanket statement then you fudged it a bit, now you want me to set the bet?

Sounds like you don't know what your'e talking about to me, which was what I knew all along.

Give me the bet or dont waste my time.

Yeah, I was wondering what road you would take to bail out of this.

$5,000 eh? You guys crack me up. Sit behind the computer and run your mouth, but when it's time to play for keeps, you look for an excuse. Good job.

The bet offer is still on - so if you figure out what YOU accused me of and you grow some balls in the next few days, then post the wager and send the money. Until then, you know what I think of you.

PS: I never fudged anything. Since you called my statement horseshit, I simply explained what I meant. It's called an ELABORATION, or an EXPLANATION, or a CLARIFICATION. Get it?
 

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cincy_ said:
Yeah, I was wondering what road you would take to bail out of this.

$5,000 eh? You guys crack me up. Sit behind the computer and run your mouth, but when it's time to play for keeps, you look for an excuse. Good job.

The bet offer is still on - so if you figure out what YOU accused me of and you grow some balls in the next few days, then post the wager and send the money. Until then, you know what I think of you.

PS: I never fudged anything. Since you called my statement horseshit, I simply explained what I meant. It's called an ELABORATION, or an EXPLANATION, or a CLARIFICATION. Get it?

NEVER take a line is worse than what you would have received before the game.

That was your original statement, I am willing to bet you whatever you want that the above statement is horsehit like i originally called it.

Here's an example :

Portland led Washington 48-40 at the half on Sunday, Portland was a 5.5 point dog in the game.

2nd half line was Washington -6, if you take Portland +6 for the 2nd half, you effectively have them -2 for the game.

In your words, you NEVER take portland at ANY line other than a line that makes em at least +5.5 or better for the game.

Even if Washington was -12 for the 2nd half, you still wouldn't take Portland. Its either Wash -12 or pass at that line.

I will bet you whatever you want that Portland is the play at anything better than +6.5.

Now step up or get lost dipshit.:finger:
 

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Pancho Sanza said:
NEVER take a line is worse than what you would have received before the game.

That was your original statement, I am willing to bet you whatever you want that the above statement is horsehit like i originally called it.

Here's an example :

Portland led Washington 48-40 at the half on Sunday, Portland was a 5.5 point dog in the game.

2nd half line was Washington -6, if you take Portland +6 for the 2nd half, you effectively have them -2 for the game.

In your words, you NEVER take portland at ANY line other than a line that makes em at least +5.5 or better for the game.

Even if Washington was -12 for the 2nd half, you still wouldn't take Portland. Its either Wash -12 or pass at that line.

I will bet you whatever you want that Portland is the play at anything better than +6.5.

Now step up or get lost dipshit.:finger:

First off, the 2nd half line for that game was Washington -5.5 at Olympic and at Pinnacle. I didn;t see a Washington -6.

I will reply to this later when I have more time.
 

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Here is my play on the 2nd half in that game from Olympic. Now if you think I doctored this, I will give my account number and password to a mod here, they can go into my account and verify it and we can wager anywhere from $100 to $5,000 on that too.

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="98%"> <tbody><tr bgcolor="#99cccc"><td width="22%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Dec 18 10:19pm[/FONT]</td> <td align="left" width="32%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Basketball - Winner[/FONT]</td> <td width="30%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]324.50 to win 295.00[/FONT]</td> <td align="right" width="15%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]295.00 [/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#99cccc"> <td colspan="4" width="100%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial] 1. Basketball - Portland Trailblazers - spread +5½ (-110)
for the 2nd half held on Dec 18 at 9:05pm [winner]
[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody> </table>

What I gave was a RULE OF THUMB. I just wanted to say that people think a team who covers the 1st half will cover the 2nd half too. It is like saying not to lay more than 3 points in the NFL. Not always true, but a good guideline for new players. I never told them to bet something - I said play the other side or make it a no play.

Now back to the original argument which you're trying to weasel out of:

You wrote:

"As far as him asking me to post facts/statistics, I didn't see any from him.

Trust me he doesn't have em because if he did, he wouldn't have made his silly statement."
The bet is that I do have the stats. The wager is for whatever you choose to make it. Now that we are back onto the original accusation, are you going to change the subject again?
 

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Pancho Sanza said:
Sure you will.

Thats not the point whether it was ever 6 or not, according to your theory, I need enough points on Portland to make em at least +5.5 or better so even if it was Wash -10 for the 2nd half, you would have passed on Portland since that would have only made em +2.

CRIS opened that 2nd half at Wash -6 and there were 6's everywhere.

http://www.donbest.com/website/html/scores/game.shtml?20051218/711

The closing lne was Wash -5.5, so you're not going to get -10 anywhere. Get realistic here. When I say not to lay more than a FG, does that mean you shouldn't lay 4 if Indy was playing Houston at home? I guess I am, because I know you're not going to get that number.
 

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"What I gave was a RULE OF THUMB."

Actually you didn't you said NEVER in bold letters.

Then you proceed to break your own rule by playing Portland which goes against your "never take a line worse than the game line".:pucking:

What do you wanna bet again? Sounds like a lot of back peddling to me.:finger23:
 

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i dont doubt that Pancho is an experienced gambler,

but it is unfortunate that he is not much of a contributer on the forums!!!

one of those guys who claims to know everything, but rarely shares anything, (or when he does share something it is in a be-littling fashion)

a shame I say.
 

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