2017 NCAA Systems

[rolltide]

PLAY ON late season bad streaking away teams. 59-29 (on CLE, on DEN) 0-2 ... winless teams 15-3 (CLE)


UNDER team off away blowout win and under vs regular rest bad offense. 18-48 o/u (PHI under) 1-5 o/u


OVER team off MNF loss as tiny dog or fav and opponent off wi. 22-8 o/u (SEA over) 0-0, part of 41-16 o/u which is 1-0 o/u ytd


OPPOSE ndiv home fav off close away nondiv loss. 82-22 (on BUF) 1-1


PLAY ON team that just allowed 25+ more than expected vs opponent that just allowed 10+ less than expected. 45-20 (


PLAY ON fav off bye that scored 35+ before break. 29-3 (on CAR) 1-0 ... subset of 35-10 which has won 6 straight and a 32-9 ATS which also covered 6 straight


OPPOSE away team off close home dog loss rushing for 200+. 57-18 (on PHI) 2-1 ytd , 22-5 L27


OPPOSE 3+ win team on short week and overtime. 20-3 (on NYG) 0-0, covered 14 straight
OPPOSE dogs or small favs off overtime on short week. 21-3 (on WAS) 0-0, 16-1 L17


UNDER team off 4Q comeback win that went over. 34-69 o/u (NO under) 3-1 o/u


PLAY ON horrible team failing to cover by 45+ in L5 games combined. 116-69 (on BUF, on MIA, on DEN) 4-3


PLAY ON away fav of 3+ after bye week. 46-15 (on CAR) 5-2


OVER away fav off fav game with rushing TD and great time of possession. 56-27 o/u (MIN over) 4-3 o/u


PLAY ON winning home team off b2b away lossses with good margin YTD. 41-19 (on KC) 0-0


OVER two teams that couldn't run the ball last week. 66-30 o/u (CIN over) 3-2 o/u


PLAY ON MNF off away win as dog or small fav. 35-15 (on BAL) 2-0


PLAY ON big home fav 2H of season vs bad opponent off home dog win. 62-27 (on WAS) 2-1


OPPOSE late season home fav or small dog that won <5 games LY. (on NO) 0-0


PLAY ON home dog that allowed 32+ last week and scored 3 or less in 1st half. 88-46 (on NYJ) 3-0


OPPOSE big home favs off home win as big fav but avg <4 YPC and opponent avg >3 YPC. 81-37 (on PIT) 2-1


UNDER big winning streak team vs opponent not on losing streak. 10-31 o/u (MIN under) 1-1


UNDER big fav off fav game turning it over 2+ times and not great offense or rush last week. 43-9 o/u (KC under) 1-9 o/u


UNDER tightener of above L2+ seasons. 0-29 o/u (KC under) 0-9 o/u


UNDER away fav of 7+ since 2012 season. 17-54 o/u (SEA under if 7+ fav) 1-7 o/u


UNDEr late season team that allowed 28+ in previous season meeting. 47-106 o/u (CIN under, TEN under) 1-0 o/u

 

[Haystacks]

I don't use "your stuff". I use my stuff. You think you're the only person that uses systems?? Geezus dude get a grip.

I look at a lot of stuff, as well as my own stuff. A lot of your stuff is outdated or is purely random, but you fail to acknowledge it because of your ego.

I make one comment grounded in common sense, you get your feelings hurt. Tells me all I need to know about you Tide.

Grow up.

I’ve already told you once to stay out if this thread. Now go to your room and don’t come out till I say it’s ok.

 

[rolltide]

Can't remember if I read it here or elsewhere but saw a stat regarding play against any team that is a Fav the following week after beating Dallas.

wasn't me. i don't do much with team specific in foots, just hockey

fwiw ran it and favs are 4-14 ats after beating dallas

 

[rolltide]

I’ve already told you once to stay out if this thread. Now go to your room and don’t come out till I say it’s ok.

please don't quote his shit because then i see it. he'll go away if you ignore him (or at least that's the plan)

much rather just get:

11-19-2017, 02:32 PM
Biz
RX Wizard

[h=2]This message is hidden because Biz is on your ignore list.[/h]View Post

Remove user from ignore list
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[rolltide]

RT - do you have the link to your bowl thread? The one from years ago with all the trends etc.?

will likely run the same stuff this year with current fits so looking at past years won't do you much good. i know there's a lot of unders and a lot of running underdogs but don't really have a ton of bowl specific stuff. still, i'll run the whole suite of systems and post the findings at the appropriate time (4 weeks?)

 

[Enfuego]

will likely run the same stuff this year with current fits so looking at past years won't do you much good. i know there's a lot of unders and a lot of running underdogs but don't really have a ton of bowl specific stuff. still, i'll run the whole suite of systems and post the findings at the appropriate time (4 weeks?)

There's an old bowl thread that gets posted every year here. Has all the trends etc. It's like 8 years old or something like that. I thought you started it years ago.

 

[rolltide]

There's an old bowl thread that gets posted every year here. Has all the trends etc. It's like 8 years old or something like that. I thought you started it years ago.

oh gotcha...yeah, i know what you're talking about now. I posted in there a few times in the past because a lot of that stuff was really dated. If i remember correctly i created queries for most of those so it could be carried forward but probably lost in space at this point


_________________________________________________________________________________________


two quick notes on WAS/NYG:


1) only 3rd time in NFL history that two teams meet after both going to OT and playing on <5 days of rest
2) Thursday divisional home favs are 24-48 o/u in history of dbase. Hasn't been active since Sept when GB went over. Every year has produced a season where unders went 50/50 or better (see below)


day = Thursday and HF and DIV and ...

games	ATS W - L- P (marg, %win)	Avg Line	OU W - L- P (marg, %over)	Avg Total	SU W - L- P (marg, %win)	SDQL
1	1-0-0 (13.50, 100.0%)	-7.5	1-0-0 (4.00, 100.0%)	45.0	1-0-0 (21.00, 100.0%)	season = 2017
8	6-2-0 (5.00, 75.0%)	-6.4	2-6-0 (-5.69, 25.0%)	45.6	8-0-0 (11.38, 100.0%)	season = 2016
9	4-5-0 (-0.06, 44.4%)	-5.3	3-6-0 (-1.72, 33.3%)	44.3	5-4-0 (5.22, 55.6%)	season = 2015
13	7-6-0 (-1.50, 53.8%)	-5.4	6-7-0 (-2.77, 46.2%)	44.8	8-5-0 (3.92, 61.5%)	season = 2014
4	1-3-0 (-0.62, 25.0%)	-7.6	2-2-0 (-6.62, 50.0%)	47.1	3-1-0 (7.00, 75.0%)	season = 2013
7	4-3-0 (1.50, 57.1%)	-6.1	2-5-0 (-7.14, 28.6%)	46.1	6-1-0 (7.57, 85.7%)	season = 2012
2	0-2-0 (-8.50, 0.0%)	-10.5	0-2-0 (-14.75, 0.0%)	43.8	1-1-0 (2.00, 50.0%)	season = 2011
4	3-1-0 (5.50, 75.0%)	-7.0	2-2-0 (1.38, 50.0%)	40.1	3-1-0 (12.50, 75.0%)	season = 2008
5	3-2-0 (0.40, 60.0%)	-5.0	0-5-0 (-12.00, 0.0%)	39.4	4-1-0 (5.40, 80.0%)	season = 2006
2	0-2-0 (-12.00, 0.0%)	-8.5	1-1-0 (-2.00, 50.0%)	43.5	1-1-0 (-3.50, 50.0%)	season = 2000
2	1-1-0 (1.50, 50.0%)	-7.5	0-2-0 (-8.00, 0.0%)	40.0	2-0-0 (9.00, 100.0%)	season = 1999
2	2-0-0 (24.75, 100.0%)	-6.8	1-1-0 (12.50, 50.0%)	42.0	2-0-0 (31.50, 100.0%)	season = 1997
2	2-0-0 (5.50, 100.0%)	-9.0	1-1-0 (0.75, 50.0%)	39.8	2-0-0 (14.50, 100.0%)	season = 1996
4	1-3-0 (-7.75, 25.0%)	-4.2	1-3-0 (0.62, 25.0%)	42.9	2-2-0 (-3.50, 50.0%)	season = 1995
2	1-1-0 (-0.75, 50.0%)	-5.2	1-1-0 (4.50, 50.0%)	37.0	2-0-0 (4.50, 100.0%)	season = 1994
1	0-1-0 (-11.50, 0.0%)	-7.5	0-1-0 (-20.50, 0.0%)	36.5	0-1-0 (-4.00, 0.0%)	season = 1993
3	2-1-0 (6.50, 66.7%)	-10.8	1-2-0 (-2.00, 33.3%)	40.0	3-0-0 (17.33, 100.0%)	season = 1992
1	1-0-0 (7.00, 100.0%)	-3.0	0-1-0 (-19.00, 0.0%)	41.0	1-0-0 (10.00, 100.0%)	season = 1991

Showing 1 to 18 of 18 entries

 

[Biz]

I’ve already told you once to stay out if this thread. Now go to your room and don’t come out till I say it’s ok.

Whatever dork.

Tide has a problem when I point out pertinent information. He gets a little sensitive....kinda like you.

Tide ignores my posts, which is fine, because he doesn't want his myopic views altered. Weak minded people can't engage in dialogue when someone presents a reasoned opposite view.

I'll let you blindly follow his stuff, some of which is good, lots of which isn't. Lots of purely random shit that isn't predictive. Some stuff actually makes sense.

 

[rolltide]

game 12 OPPOSE losing teams in final game of year that were bowl eligible last year. 45-19 (on TCU, SDST, UTAH, TULSA, TENN...and next week GAST) 0-0 - have to check to see if BAY is actually bowl eligible though...not sure if sanctions extended to this bowl season


game 11 OPPOSE game 11 teams still not bowl eligible but were bowl eligible last year and have now lost 2 straight games. 49-21 (on NM State) 1-1


OPPOSE 9+ win teams that aren't favored by >2TD vs an <.500 opponent. 32-12 (on PITT) 0-0


UNDER 9+ win, non-elite offensive team not favored by 16+ and facing <.55 opponent. 27-56-2 o/u (TOL under, PITT under, GT under) 0-1 o/u


UNDER small dog that was huge dog in last year's loss. 31-69 o/u (FIU under, UTSA under) 6-8 o/u


PLAY ON medium dog off conference DD win vs opponent that scored 26+ but allowed 31+. 89-31 (on GaSo) 2-1
PLAY ON med home fav off DD dog win vs team that was just a dog. 88-33 (on ULLaf) 3-1


PLAY ON home dog off b2b wins scoring 39+ in both. 85-35 (on CMU, on AUB) 7-1


UNDER big winning streakin home dog, both won 8+ games LY. 32-73 o/u (AUB under) 5-9 o/u


OPPOSE big dog close to .500 off a narrow conference win. 35-10 (on Mid Tenn) 0-2
OPPOSE team off 2+ OT loss not in b2b away games. 50-26 (on ODU) 4-6


UNDER team after allowing <3 YPP and 0-1 rush TD. 197-307 o/u (AUB under, MICH under, WVA under) 17-29 o/u


PLAY ON heavy conf rush team in 2H of season vs opponent with terrible rush defense that just allowed rush TD. 191-108 (on VT, TEX, MICHST, MIDTENN, GASO) 12-8




UNDER conference away after going under by 30+. 37-84 o/u (IDAHO under) 5-4 o/u


PLAY ON big winning conference big home dog off b2b wins vs opponent not off blowout win. 74-29 (on Fresno if 7+) 4-3 ... also 52-15 if 7+ which is 3-0 YTD


OPPOSE 4-0 or better away fav that just covered by 7+ and playing elite WP team. 44-16 (on AUB) 2-1


OPPOSE teams that just lost their 7th game away vs opponent still bowl eligible that won 6 or less LY. 30-9 (on NM State this week and vs SoBama next week) 2-1


UNDER late season nonconf game with at least 1 team 9+ wins and at least 1 team previous OVER, and combined 57 ppg allowed YTD. 7-24 o/u (GT under, CLEM under) 0-1 o/u


LAY ON well rested conf home dog with revenge and off a win. 89-37 (on Ga State) 1-3

 

[exploited17]

week > 9 and p:HL and points = 0 and date > 19921201
SU: 17-13-0 (0.87, 56.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 25-5-0 (6.42, 83.3%) avg line: 5.5 +6: 29-1-0 (96.7%) -6: 16-14-0 (53.3%) +10: 29-1-0 (96.7%) -10: 10-19-1 (34.5%) O/U: 10-19-1 (-1.75, 34.5%) avg total: 38.2 +6: 9-21-0 (30.0%) -6: 17-13-0 (56.7%) +10: 8-21-1 (27.6%) -10: 20-10-0 (66.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Pass Yds Comp TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 29.6 112.9 29.5 187.2 17.0 1.7 4.7 5.0 2.9 5.8 18.7 Opp 28.6 117.5 34.8 197.2 19.3 2.3 3.9 5.8 3.4 4.6 17.8

Packers +14...right?

 

[doogieboy]

OPPOSE teams that just lost their 7th game away vs opponent still bowl eligible that won 6 or less LY. 30-9 (on NM State this week and vs SoBama next week) 2-1
I see where Idaho lost last game (7th loss) at home...accuracy ???? or am I missing something??

 

[indiana]

R/Tide........you and your family have a great thanksgiving tomorrow buddy...........enjoy the day and BOL with your action...........indy

 

[XSPower]

Thanks and good luck today....

 

[rolltide]

OPPOSE teams that just lost their 7th game away vs opponent still bowl eligible that won 6 or less LY. 30-9 (on NM State this week and vs SoBama next week) 2-1
I see where Idaho lost last game (7th loss) at home...accuracy ???? or am I missing something??

you are putting the word away with the wrong part of that explanation. read it as "away vs opponent still bowl eligible that won 6 or less LY" and will make plenty of sense

 

[rolltide]

R/Tide........you and your family have a great thanksgiving tomorrow buddy...........enjoy the day and BOL with your action...........indy

thank you, indy. have a terrific Turkey Day!

 

[rolltide]

PLAY ON team that just allowed 25+ more than expected vs opponent that just allowed 10+ less than expected. 45-20

sorry just noticed i did not finish this one.... is on Buffalo and should read "vs opponent that scored 10+ less than expected"

also have another on the Bills....

PLAY ON nondiv away dogs off blowout away dog loss playing a home team with at least 15% of their points via FG's. 48-9 ATS (on BUF) 1-0-1 as Raiders pushed at Miami and Bengals covered at Tennessee. This is 17-1-1 L6 years and improves to 22-0 L22 all-time if you bump the FG% up considerably on opponent.

 

[doogieboy]

you are putting the word away with the wrong part of that explanation. read it as "away vs opponent still bowl eligible that won 6 or less LY" and will make plenty of sense

Got it...commas help a lot

 

[rolltide]

Got it...commas help a lot

I will note that for next year's thread. Goodbye

 

[AlistairCookie]

I will note that for next year's thread. Goodbye

This isn’t Vietnam Walter.

 

[Haystacks]

Got it...commas help a lot

And what we call an apostrophe, you call a comma to the top ? Right, howser ?