2016 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

[elevenblack301]

@) Well, guess what boys and girls, ladies and gentlemen.......it’s that time of the year again ..............Christmas in July..............or actually May...................it’s Kentucky Derby time..........

With only 3 weeks to go, let’s start discussing who is the ‘play’ this year..................and a big ‘kudos’ once again to last year’s Triple Crown Winner...........American Pharoah..............what a year he had...................great to see another champ in my lifetime...................he took on all 'comers' and took each and everyone of them down.


..........Note to Steve Coburn, ain’t karma a bitch..................


Well let’s get the chatter started............................be well all....

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: To start off, just want to throw out a few names that are on my radar......................think that this year's winner may come from out west..........

These are the horses which I am really beginning to like,

----- Exaggerator
----- Suddenbreakingnews
----- Nyquist
----- Mor Spirit
----- My Man Sam

But, with still 3 weeks to go, many things will change...........

Be well all............................the first Saturday in May is just around the corner.

 

[tanner12oz]

Not this again

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: Some of the possible entries and their ' Racing Style' , the number of "Graded Races" each have run, and the number of 1 1/8 races run...........

...................................Style.............# of ‘G’ Races ............# of 1/8 Races


Gun Runner..................P 4........................3.................................1
Nyquist........................E/P 5....................6..................................1
Exaggerator..................P 3........................7.................................1
Outwork......................E 8........................2.................................1
Brody’s Cause..............S 0........................4.................................1
Mor Spirit....................P 3........................4.................................1
Moyhamen.................E/P 6......................5..................................1
Danzig Candy..............E 8........................2..................................1
Destin.......................E/P 4......................3..................................0
Cupid........................E/P 6......................1..................................1
Oscar Nominated.........P 5........................1..................................1
Shagaf.......................E/P 4......................2..................................1
Tom’s Ready................S 1........................5..................................1
My Man Sam..............S 0.........................1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1
Majesto......................P 3.........................1.................................3
Trojan Nation.............S 3.........................1..................................1
Mo Tom.....................S 0.........................4..................................1
Fellowship..................S 2........................3..................................1
Adventist..................E/P 4......................3...................................1
Laoban.......................E 6.......................3...................................1
Cherry Wine.................S 0......................2..................................1
Whitmore....................P 3.......................4..................................1
Azar..............................E/P 6..................4..................................1
Dazzling Gem................E/P 7...................1..................................1
Collected.......................E/P 6..................3...................................1
Suddenbreakingnews......S 0....................3...................................1
Discreetness..................E/P 3..................4...................................1
Creator..........................S 2....................2...................................1
Star Hill........................P 4....................3....................................1
Matt Knig Coal...............E 8....................1....................................1
Gettysburg.....................E 7...................2....................................3


...Be well everyone....................

 

[elevenblack301]

@) A number just to look at maybe.......................................an early look at the times of the 1/8 races.............will be updated once the entries are finalized.....

....................................Approximate Time for 1 1/8 mile race

Collected............................................1.48.4
Nyquist...............................................1.49
Gettysburg..........................................1.49.1
Exaggerator.........................................1.49.3
Majesto...............................................1.49.4
Fellowship...........................................1.50
Creator................................................1.50
Suddenbreakingnews...........................1.50.1
Brodys Cause......................................1.50.1
Whitmore...........................................1.50.2
My Man Sam......................................1.50.3
Cherry Wine.......................................1.50.3
Mor Spirit..........................................1.50.4
Moyhamen.........................................1.50.4
Dazzling Gem.....................................1.51
Gun Runner........................................1.51
Oscar Nominated................................1.51
Laoban..............................................1.51
Azar..................................................1.51
Discreetness......................................1.51.1
Star Hill............................................1.51.3
Toms Ready.......................................1.52
Danzig Candy.....................................1.52
Cupid................................................1.52.1
Mo Tom.............................................1.52.1
Lani..................................................1.52.3
Outwork............................................1.52.4
Trojan Nation.....................................1.52.4
Adventist..........................................1.53.1
Matt King Coal..................................1.53.1
Shagaf.............................................1.53.3






Disclaimer
..... these are just numbers..................numbers for race times of an 1 1/8 race which each horse ran in...............these races were run at different tracks, different track conditions, , different weather conditions , different jockeys etc, etc, etc...... So for some these times mean absolutely nothing, for others , maybe something to look at............


---- but sometimes, just sometimes......., like last year, when all of the stars line up in the Northern Sky.......the top 3 finishers in the Derby were at the top three on the final list for the Derby Entries...........................interesting...................

 

[elevenblack301]

Here's an interesting little tidbit................

----- 50 of the last 53 Derby Winners , the winner was either placed 1st or 2nd at the 1/8 pole ( with a furlong to go ).............the odd 3 were Animal Kingdom ( 3rd with a furlong to go ), Giacomo ( 6th with a furlong to go ) and Grindstone ( 4th with a furlong to go ).

So look at the PP's and see who is 1st or 2nd at the 1/8 pole in their last few races................this may be a way to wean down the field ......................

 

[tanner12oz]

@) A number just to look at maybe.......................................an early look at the times of the 1/8 races.............will be updated once the entries are finalized.....

....................................Approximate Time for 1 1/8 mile race

Collected............................................1.48.4
Nyquist...............................................1.49
Gettysburg..........................................1.49.1
Exaggerator.........................................1.49.3
Majesto...............................................1.49.4
Fellowship...........................................1.50
Creator................................................1.50
Suddenbreakingnews...........................1.50.1
Brodys Cause......................................1.50.1
Whitmore...........................................1.50.2
My Man Sam......................................1.50.3
Cherry Wine.......................................1.50.3
Mor Spirit..........................................1.50.4
Moyhamen.........................................1.50.4
Dazzling Gem.....................................1.51
Gun Runner........................................1.51
Oscar Nominated................................1.51
Laoban..............................................1.51
Azar..................................................1.51
Discreetness......................................1.51.1
Star Hill............................................1.51.3
Toms Ready.......................................1.52
Danzig Candy.....................................1.52
Cupid................................................1.52.1
Mo Tom.............................................1.52.1
Lani..................................................1.52.3
Outwork............................................1.52.4
Trojan Nation.....................................1.52.4
Adventist..........................................1.53.1
Matt King Coal..................................1.53.1
Shagaf.............................................1.53.3






Disclaimer
..... these are just numbers..................numbers for race times of an 1 1/8 race which each horse ran in...............these races were run at different tracks, different track conditions, , different weather conditions , different jockeys etc, etc, etc...... So for some these times mean absolutely nothing, for others , maybe something to look at............


---- but sometimes, just sometimes......., like last year, when all of the stars line up in the Northern Sky.......the top 3 finishers in the Derby were at the top three on the final list for the Derby Entries...........................interesting...................

the disclaimer is a better handicapping tool then the above times

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: Another tidbit to help wean the field down is the ever so popular " Curse of Apollo "..........................in which no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882.

So when the final field is set, just throw out any horse which did not run as a 2 year old.

 

[elevenblack301]

face)(*^% OK, here is an early list of the Prime Power Ratings for the 'possible entries'...................

..............Prime Power Ratings


149.3 Mor Spirit
149.1 Danzing Candy
148.7 Exaggerator
148.3 Nyquist
148.3 Mohaymen
146.7 Shagaf
146.3 Outwork
145.3 Gun Runner
145.2 Matt King Coal
144.2 Mo Tom
143.1 Suddenbreakingnews
142.8 My Man Sam
142.8 Collected
142.5 Whitmore
142.4 Dazzling Gem
141.9 Gettysburg
140.4 Adventist
140.4 Creator
140.3 Destin
139.9 Brody's Cause
139.1 Cherry Wine
137.6 Tom's Ready
137.2 Discreetness
136.9 Laoban
136.2 Star Hill
135.5 Fellowship
134.2 Majesto
133.6 Oscar Nominated
133.5 Trojan Nation


Nice to look at, will update as needed........................wishing everyone a great day at the races today...............Be Well

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: How have the winners fared in the Derby from certain Derby Prep Races....................Let's see...

Past winners of the Spiral and Kentucky Derby finish
...................WINNER ...................TRAINER .....................KY. DERBY FINISH
2016 .......Oscar Nominated........Mike Maker
2015 .......Dubai Sky...................William I. Mott.........................DNS
2014 .......We Miss Artie.............Todd A. Pletcher......................10th
2013 .......Black Onyx..................Kelly J. Breen...........................DNS
2012 .......Went the Day Well ......H. Graham Motion...................4th
2011 .......Animal Kingdom.........H. Graham Motion...................1st
2010 .......Dean’s Kitten...............Michael J. Maker.....................14th
2009.......Hold Me Back.............William I. Mott.........................12th
2008.......Adriano .......................H. Graham Motion...................19th
2007.......Hard Spun...................J. Larry Jones..........................2nd
2006.......With a City..................Michael J. Maker.....................DNS
2005.......Flower Alley................Todd A. Pletcher......................9th


Past winners of the Fountain of Youthand Kentucky Derby finish
....................WINNER....................... TRAINER.................. KY. DERBY FINISH
2015 .......Mohaymen..................Kiaran McLaughlin
2015 .......Itsaknockout ...............Todd A. Pletcher......................9th
2014 .......Wildcat Red.................Jose Garoffalo .........................18th
2013 .......Orb ..............................Claude R. McGaughey III ........1st
2012 .......Union Rags.................Michael R. Matz.......................7th
2011 .......Soldat..........................Kiaran P. McLaughlin..............11th
2010 .......Eskendereya................Todd A. Pletcher......................DNS
2009.......Quality Road ...............James A. Jerkens....................DNS
2008.......Cool Coal Man ...........Nicholas P. Zito........................15th
2007.......Scat Daddy.................Todd A. Pletcher......................18th
2006.......First Samurai..............Frank L. Brothers.....................DNS
2005.......High Fly.......................Nicholas P. Zito........................10th

Past winners of the Gothamand Kentucky Derby finish
WINNER....................................... TRAINER.................... KY. DERBY FINISH
2016 .......Shagaf.........................Chad Brown
2015 .......El Kabeir......................John P. Terranova II.................SCR
2014 .......Samraat.......................Richard A. Violette Jr...............5th
2013 .......Vyjack.........................Rudy R. Rodriguez...................18th
2012 .......Hansen........................Michael J. Maker.....................9th
2011 .......Stay Thirsty.................Todd A. Pletcher......................12th
2010 .......Awesome Act..............Jeremy Noseda........................19th
2009.......I Want Revenge...........Jeff Mullins..............................DNS
2008.......Visionaire....................Michael R. Matz.......................12th
2007.......Cowtown Cat ..............Todd A. Pletcher...................... 20th
2006.......Like Now.....................Kiaran P. McLaughlin..............DNS
2005.......Survivalist...................Claude R. McGaughey III ........DNS

Past winners of the Rebel and Kentucky Derby finish
WINNER...................................... TRAINER ....................KY. DERBY FINISH
2016 .......Cupid ..........................Bob Baffert
2015 .......American Pharoah......Bob Baffert...............................1st
2014 .......Hoppertunity...............Bob Baffert...............................DNS
2013 .......Will Take Charge.........D. Wayne Lukas.......................8th
2012 .......Secret Circle...............Bob Baffert...............................DNS
2011 .......The Factor...................Bob Baffert...............................DNS
2010 .......Lookin At Lucky..........Bob Baffert...............................6th
2009.......Win Willy.....................McLean Robertson..................DNS
2008.......Sierra Sunset ..............Jeff Bonde................................DNS
2007.......Curlin ..........................Steven M. Asmussen ..............3rd
2006.......Lawyer Ron.................Robert E. Holthus....................12th
2005.......Greater Good ..............Robert E. Holthus....................13th


............Will do the other prep races soon........................

 

[Kaboom]

I have a bunch of info Eleven , some may find worthless , but I can care less ...

Since 1970, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby when the Louisiana Derby has been their final prep .

This one is all mine , from my research ...
Nyquist Dosage Index 7.00

There has only been 1 horse in the last 75 years with a Dosage Index of higher than a 7.00 , that won the Derby , which was in 1991 Strike the Gold had 9.00 Dosage .

I have a bunch more that I'm breaking down ... PM me if you want more ...

Good Luck this year !

 

[elevenblack301]

I have a bunch of info Eleven , some may find worthless , but I can care less ...

Since 1970, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby when the Louisiana Derby has been their final prep .

This one is all mine , from my research ...
Nyquist Dosage Index 7.00

There has only been 1 horse in the last 75 years with a Dosage Index of higher than a 7.00 , that won the Derby , which was in 1991 Strike the Gold had 9.00 Dosage .

I have a bunch more that I'm breaking down ... PM me if you want more ...

Good Luck this year !

Kaboom,

Always nice to hear from you , my friend.............

Yes, of course , please offer all of the info you can...................even though some may not care ( one in particular ).................most of us do...............and all that we can share only helps all of us in this wonderful sport of kings.

Love the dosage stuff............that is something that many overlook............

Thanks again, much appreciated and keep it coming..............

 

[Kaboom]

Kaboom,

Always nice to hear from you , my friend.............

Yes, of course , please offer all of the info you can...................even though some may not care ( one in particular ).................most of us do...............and all that we can share only helps all of us in this wonderful sport of kings.

Love the dosage stuff............that is something that many overlook............

Thanks again, much appreciated and keep it coming..............

You know Nyquist may crush this field ...but 1 for 75 on Dosage over 5.40 to win the Derby .. That's crazy info ...IMO !!!!

 

[HeadsNecks+Noses]

YEAH DOSAGE !!!! ... BUT ITS 2016 ... ANd WHo Is The TRAINER ?????? .... Good LUCK!!!! :smoking.O'N/ P.RD.!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'LL have AnOt !!!

 

[elevenblack301]

You know Nyquist may crush this field ...but 1 for 75 on Dosage over 5.40 to win the Derby .. That's crazy info ...IMO !!!!

Kaboom,

Nyquist may, but I see some of the closers passing him in the last furlong................at least that's what I'm hoping for............................thanks

 

[Kaboom]

YEAH DOSAGE !!!! ... BUT ITS 2016 ... ANd WHo Is The TRAINER ?????? .... Good LUCK!!!! :smoking.O'N/ P.RD.!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'LL have AnOt !!!

No Idea what the abbreviations mean bro ?? Cut back on those smokes ... you don't look so good ...lol ...u know I'm messin ...

 

[elevenblack301]

No Idea what the abbreviations mean bro ?? Cut back on those smokes ... you don't look so good ...lol ...u know I'm messin ...

Funny, was thinking the same thing and do not know what 'message' or 'question' he was trying to ask/comment............

 

[elevenblack301]

popcorn-eatinggif One of the more popular ways to 'judge' how a horse ran a race........................The Beyer Number,.............

..................................My Beyer Numbers.............Best Number..................Getting Better


Exaggerator..........................99.....................................103
Nyquist...............................94.6...................................101
Mor Spirit............................94.6....................................97
Destin................................92.6...................................100.................................yes
Danzig Candy......................91.6..................................100
My Man Sam.......................91.3....................................95
Suddenbreakingnews............91......................................94
Whitmore............................91.....................................92...................................yes
Moyhamen..........................90......................................95
Outwork.............................89.3...................................98
Creator...............................88.6...................................96..................................yes
Gun Runner........................87.6...................................91...................................yes
Adventist...........................86.......................................89
Mo Tom.............................85.6.....................................88
Fellowship..........................85.6....................................87..................................yes
Brody’s Cause.....................85......................................91...................................yes
Dazzling Gem.....................84.6...................................88...................................yes
Shagaf...............................84.......................................87..................................yes
Majesto.............................83.3....................................89...................................yes
Laoban..............................81.6....................................85
Trojan Nation......................80.......................................93.................................yes
Toms Ready........................79.3....................................85
Oscar Nominated................79........................................82..................................yes

Be well......................

 

[LEYKIS101]

Funny, was thinking the same thing and do not know what 'message' or 'question' he was trying to ask/comment............

To quote the actress on Airplane, "oh stewardess, I speak Jive".

D.O'N/ = Doug O'Neill
P.RD.!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Paul Reddam
I'LL have AnOt !!! - I'll Have Another

 

[elevenblack301]

To quote the actress on Airplane, "oh stewardess, I speak Jive".

D.O'N/ = Doug O'Neill
P.RD.!!!!!!!!!!!!! - Paul Reddam
I'LL have AnOt !!! - I'll Have Another

Thanks, for the translation...........................guess he is hinting he likes " Nyquist" then.....................