How about the Yankees over? No pressure this year - well, not as much since they won it last year - no fire Girardi talk and no A-Roid talk either. They are just going out to play baseball.
Over seems like a good play here - they play the Jays/Orioles plenty, so that will provide wins.
How about Cardinals under 88.5? It opened at 83.5 and exploded to the current number.
Carpenter is a good bet to break down. Who knows what happens with McGwire as hitting coach. Books could clean up.
BG, I thought it was very unusual to see you pick 3 overs in the same division. I know SF under partially offsets that, but San Diego troubles me. I went over last year, and was thrilled to somehow get the number needed. I seem to recall that you had lots of action on the NL West last year, too, can I surmise that you feel a certain affinity for this division's teams? Thanks for posting, and as always, GL!
Munson,
Yes it is somewhat concerning betting 3 Overs in the same division as there exists a fair amount of negative correlation ( the in division games played rate is higher in MLB than it is in the NFL and much higher compared to the NBA). However, having positions on Overs on 3 of the 5 teams, and one short on the other doesn't have me overexposed in my opinion, especially since if I am way on one one of the Over, since it it will more than likely help the other 2 Overs.
Simply put, this is the most underrated division in baseball (as it was last year) and possibly the second best division in all of baseball (2 or 3rd best in my opinion). Last year, 4 of the 5 teams went Over the posted total. Last year the NL West one 54% of their games against the East and Central and had the best Interleague record in the NL. This division has improved this year, and the market continues to discredit their true worth.
You are right about me having the propensity to have more positions in this division than any other. It just seems that their exists and anchoring bias that this division is bad, thus leading to an inefficient pricing.
As always, good luck this year BG.
My question for you is...do you take time value of money in consideration when betting on futures? Probably less of a factor these past years, but do you figure it in?
Cool.Probably not. Will post some of the better bets I find from time to time though.