2010 Season Win Totals

[TheHungerForMore]

wow are you going to blow bg hahahaha

Oh, is this the same clown who made " Is this a trap" thread?

I'm just showing my appreciation, its very rare when things like that happens.

 

[IrishTim]

I don't know how I've missed you all this time, buffet gambler. You look to be the sharpest poster at the Rx. This is my first year modeling bases and don't really expect to turn a profit, but will be interested in reading your thoughts as the season wears on.

If you don't mind me asking, what method do you primarily use to generate your season win #s? I just did the basic Pythagorean (I think using 1.87 or 1.82 as the exponent instead of 2) formula and made some adjustments based on a couple of factors. But I wasn't confident enough in my numbers to put down any money on them, even with credit.

 

[buffettgambler]

I don't know how I've missed you all this time, buffet gambler. You look to be the sharpest poster at the Rx. This is my first year modeling bases and don't really expect to turn a profit, but will be interested in reading your thoughts as the season wears on.

If you don't mind me asking, what method do you primarily use to generate your season win #s? I just did the basic Pythagorean (I think using 1.87 or 1.82 as the exponent instead of 2) formula and made some adjustments based on a couple of factors. But I wasn't confident enough in my numbers to put down any money on them, even with credit.

Thanks. I use a monte carlo simulation that incorporates my power ratings and player projections. The Pythagorean approach is a decent benchmark, but a tool that would have been more likely to pick off value a few years back compared to now, especially this close to opening day.

BOL this season.

 

[buffettgambler]

Cool.

Thanks for the great advice and very valuable teachings you've done all season long last year for me and others taking us down the right path on the right way how to handicap baseball. You could of been selfish and went tout, but you shared your knowledge. I really appreciate it. It'll probably take me a while to create a correct EV+ intrinsic value fundamental system, but some day it will happened and that all that matters.

Thanks hunger for the kind words. Having the work ethic and dedication are the foundation of putting forth an EV model. You seem to have that (as well as an EV model in the NBA from how you have spoken). It has been a tough, dynamic market to find it, but I have the confidence you will get there soon.
Best of luck.

 

[IrishTim]

Thanks. I use a monte carlo simulation that incorporates my power ratings and player projections. The Pythagorean approach is a decent benchmark, but a tool that would have been more likely to pick off value a few years back compared to now, especially this close to opening day.

BOL this season.

Ah, I've been testing Monte Carlo with NBA with varying degrees of success. I just used Pythag as a benchmark like you said. I still need to scrape the individual box scores for MLB to do any of those methods you mentioned. Best of luck to you, BG. I'll be following your threads carefully.

 

[IrishTim]

One other question - approximately how much is a half game worth in cents? I know for NFL, half a game is roughly 50 cents but I haven't done the analysis for MLB.