Zogby Poll: McCain Recovers as Contest Takes Dramatic Turns; McCain 46% - Obama 44%
First presidential debate still up in the air as campaigns shuffle schedules UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain's poll numbers improved slightly as he suspended his campaign Wednesday to head back to Washington to focus on the looming national financial crisis, moving from more than three points behind Barack Obama last weekend to two points ahead in a Zogby Interactive survey just out of the field this morning.
Both surveys of likely voters nationwide were conducted using Zogby's online polling technology, which has proven accurate in national and statewide races dating back to 2004.
McCain now leads Obama, 45.8% to 43.8%, the survey shows.
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The big shift in the race appears to have come among independent voters, where McCain now leads by nine points, 43% to 34%. In the survey conducted over the weekend, Obama led by one point among independents.
Both candidates have a sturdy grip on their political bases, the survey shows. McCain and Obama each win 88% support from voters in their respective political parties.
Among men, McCain leads by a 53% to 35% margin, up 15 points from the weekend survey. Among women, Obama leads by a 52% to 39% margin, up 5 points from the weekend survey.
The survey, half conducted before McCain's announcement Wednesday that he would suspend his campaign to concentrate on the financial crisis and half conducted after the announcement, shows movement in McCain's favor after his announcement. Before the announcement - which included about half of the total polling sample - Obama led by one point. But McCain led by 5 points in polling completed after his statement about the suspension of his campaign. Overall, the interactive survey, conducted Sept. 23-25, 2008, included 4,752 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: "The financial crisis appears to have trumped the campaign at least for now, but what remains true is that this race is really very close. Obama was clearly leading before - we had him up by three points over the weekend - but I never thought his lead was as high as nine points, as at least one poll had indicated. We are careful to weight our poll samples to reflect the proper proportion of Democrats, Republicans, and independents. And of course, we always sample likely voters, not registered voters, to most closely reflect what would happen in an election."
Zogby International was the most accurate pollster in every one of the last three presidential election cycles, and continues to perfect its telephone and interactive methodologies using its own live operator, in-house call center in Upstate New York, and its own secure servers for its online polling projects.
In the 2004 presidential election, not only was Zogby's telephone polling right on the money, its interactive polling also nailed the election as well. In 2006, the Zogby Interactive online polling was on the money in 17 of 18 U.S. Senate races (the 18<SUP>th</SUP> was within the margin of error) a record of accuracy that is unmatched in the industry - as no other leading firm even attempts to poll statewide political races using an interactive methodology for public consumption.
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First presidential debate still up in the air as campaigns shuffle schedules UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain's poll numbers improved slightly as he suspended his campaign Wednesday to head back to Washington to focus on the looming national financial crisis, moving from more than three points behind Barack Obama last weekend to two points ahead in a Zogby Interactive survey just out of the field this morning.
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What is still unknown is what will happen to the first presidential debate in Mississippi, which had been set for Friday evening but which has been put on hold by the McCain campaign. The sponsor of the debate and the Obama campaign insist the debate will go on.Both surveys of likely voters nationwide were conducted using Zogby's online polling technology, which has proven accurate in national and statewide races dating back to 2004.
McCain now leads Obama, 45.8% to 43.8%, the survey shows.
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The Horserace
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=96>Sept. 23/25
</TD><TD width=108>Sept. 19/20
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=139>Obama</TD><TD vAlign=top width=96>
43.8%
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=108>46.8%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=139>McCain</TD><TD vAlign=top width=96>
45.8%
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=108>43.4%
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=139>Not sure/Other</TD><TD vAlign=top width=96>
10.4%
</TD><TD vAlign=top width=108>8.8%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>The big shift in the race appears to have come among independent voters, where McCain now leads by nine points, 43% to 34%. In the survey conducted over the weekend, Obama led by one point among independents.
Both candidates have a sturdy grip on their political bases, the survey shows. McCain and Obama each win 88% support from voters in their respective political parties.
Among men, McCain leads by a 53% to 35% margin, up 15 points from the weekend survey. Among women, Obama leads by a 52% to 39% margin, up 5 points from the weekend survey.
The survey, half conducted before McCain's announcement Wednesday that he would suspend his campaign to concentrate on the financial crisis and half conducted after the announcement, shows movement in McCain's favor after his announcement. Before the announcement - which included about half of the total polling sample - Obama led by one point. But McCain led by 5 points in polling completed after his statement about the suspension of his campaign. Overall, the interactive survey, conducted Sept. 23-25, 2008, included 4,752 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points.
Pollster John Zogby: "The financial crisis appears to have trumped the campaign at least for now, but what remains true is that this race is really very close. Obama was clearly leading before - we had him up by three points over the weekend - but I never thought his lead was as high as nine points, as at least one poll had indicated. We are careful to weight our poll samples to reflect the proper proportion of Democrats, Republicans, and independents. And of course, we always sample likely voters, not registered voters, to most closely reflect what would happen in an election."
Zogby International was the most accurate pollster in every one of the last three presidential election cycles, and continues to perfect its telephone and interactive methodologies using its own live operator, in-house call center in Upstate New York, and its own secure servers for its online polling projects.
In the 2004 presidential election, not only was Zogby's telephone polling right on the money, its interactive polling also nailed the election as well. In 2006, the Zogby Interactive online polling was on the money in 17 of 18 U.S. Senate races (the 18<SUP>th</SUP> was within the margin of error) a record of accuracy that is unmatched in the industry - as no other leading firm even attempts to poll statewide political races using an interactive methodology for public consumption.
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