ZJP's week 6 picks - Advice welcome\appreciated!

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new to the gambling scene - hence the fact that i don't have that much money to begin with, so i'm trying to play safe teaser bets to get on the board. so far, i'm undefeated on teasers. all are welcome to give advice, positive or negative! wisest handicappers are of course looked up to for their advice!

Play #1:
TB -1.5
TB\Carolina Over 36.5

Play #2:
Dallas\Arizona Over 43.5
Miami +9
Chicago +3

Play #3:
NYG\Cle Over 37
Green Bay +9
TB\Carolina Over 30.5
Baltimore +10.5

Thanks in advance to all, BOL this week.
 

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hoping for some help from thecruncher, kingdomcome or any other well-respected names on the boards
 

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new to the scene, then, SCRAP the over/under shit, that has to be done early sharply and late at times.
get a grip on games and go from there.

Peace
 

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new to the scene, then, SCRAP the over/under shit, that has to be done early sharply and late at times.
get a grip on games and go from there.

Peace

appreciated, though can you elaborate a little more? they seem like no-brainers, keyword SEEM
 

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Hey zjp, I think there's some debate on the legitimacy of teasing from -3 to +3. I think someone crunched the numbers once and said it's not bad, and may even be the best way to tease. I personally don't bother. I'll generally only play 6 point teasers that take a number from above 7 to below 3. It's the teaser method that sharps have used to kill the books over the years. If I'm showing value on the favorite where the spread is between 7 and 9, I'll automatically start looking to see if I can find another favorite that matches the same criterion. This week, the Saints and Giants both qualify and so are a good teaser play together. I'll tease favorites I like this way regardless of the O/U line, though the lower the total the better. I'll generally only look to tease small dogs back up through the 3 and 7 if the O/U is on the lower than average side. I never 6 point tease a total. Bet it straight if you like the total. The higher the total, the bigger the mistake you're making by teasing it as opposed to playing it straight. The only time I can see using a total in a 6 point teaser would be for extremely low totals between 33 and 34. You won't go far wrong never teasing a total, but I myself do it (in 10, 12, or 13 point teasers) when I'm showing very good value between my lines versus the actual lines, but these plays make up a very small part of betting portfolio for every week.

Of the teaser candidates you have listed, I think getting Balt over 10 points is the best, and possibly only one worth playing.
 

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Hey zjp, I think there's some debate on the legitimacy of teasing from -3 to +3. I think someone crunched the numbers once and said it's not bad, and may even be the best way to tease. I personally don't bother. I'll generally only play 6 point teasers that take a number from above 7 to below 3. It's the teaser method that sharps have used to kill the books over the years. If I'm showing value on the favorite where the spread is between 7 and 9, I'll automatically start looking to see if I can find another favorite that matches the same criterion. This week, the Saints and Giants both qualify and so are a good teaser play together. I'll tease favorites I like this way regardless of the O/U line, though the lower the total the better. I'll generally only look to tease small dogs back up through the 3 and 7 if the O/U is on the lower than average side. I never 6 point tease a total. Bet it straight if you like the total. The higher the total, the bigger the mistake you're making by teasing it as opposed to playing it straight. The only time I can see using a total in a 6 point teaser would be for extremely low totals between 33 and 34. You won't go far wrong never teasing a total, but I myself do it (in 10, 12, or 13 point teasers) when I'm showing very good value between my lines versus the actual lines, but these plays make up a very small part of betting portfolio for every week.

Of the teaser candidates you have listed, I think getting Balt over 10 points is the best, and possibly only one worth playing.


many thanks crunch!
 

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