I haven't decided who I will play, but with Sox winning last 2 and Zito throwing tommorow, I believe it will be a repeat of last week..A's keep it close..Martinez comes out..A's win..Just gut feeling..Furthermore, Joe Public will hit Martinez hard and no tellin what the A's will go off at!!
GL,
DAWG
GL,
DAWG
Tough game Dante. I think I'll just watch this one. This Punch and Judy line-up that the A's put out there has a tough time scoring runs when Tejada isn't hitting. I would have made a small play on the Red Sox in this spot but even though Pedro Martinez is going on full rest, the fact that Grady Little left him in there for 130 pitches in Game 1 makes this a pass for me.
Everyone keeps saying "oh it's Pedro" or something similar to justify jumping on Sox, but keep in mind this year's Pedro isn't the same Pedro as in years past. This very same reasoning didn't work in game #1 either. Yes, Zito is on 3-days rest, but Pedro threw 130 pitches last game. Zito had a "low stress" game as he had a 5-run lead from the 2nd inning on.
Everyone jumping on Sox with momentum but you cannot discount the home field advantage and the DOG LINE with Zito. Remember that Zito is 2-0 vs. Boston this year, and Pedro is 0-2 vs. Oakland. Oakland is 59-24 at home this year and have won L6 at home. Boston is a .500 team on the road, and this includes Pedro road starts where Boston is 8-8 (including last two road games at Oakland this year where Pedro lost).
I'm not trying to turn you off of Boston, and I know emotions are high as much as we all try to be non-bias in our capping. I'm just laying out the data which you need to use to make an educated decision. My point is don't let the "Pedro mystique -- best pitcher in baseball" theory cloud your judgement.
If you take Boston, you are laying wood on the road team (.500 on road, .500 pitcher on road, lost last 2 games in Oakland), in the loudest home game of the season to date, vs. the opposing staff's Ace, against a team that has won L6 and is 59-24 @home.
If this were a pickem line, as I believe it should be, then you can convince me about intangibles (Sox momentum, Oakland non-clutch performance last 4 playoff series including this one)... but realize that the current line is a total over-reaction to JohnQ public pounding Boston/Pedro and Oakland's inability to close out series. Take those things aside and focus just on the game itself-- the pitchers, hitters, matchups, previous mtgs, team record @home vs. road, pitchers record @home vs. road, and venue-- then make the best non-bias play you can!
Personally, I will pound Oakland runline if I can get it -120 or better. Otherwise, wait for game time and take Oakland around +150. At +140 or higher I think there is great value on Oakland.
Good luck to all.
Everyone jumping on Sox with momentum but you cannot discount the home field advantage and the DOG LINE with Zito. Remember that Zito is 2-0 vs. Boston this year, and Pedro is 0-2 vs. Oakland. Oakland is 59-24 at home this year and have won L6 at home. Boston is a .500 team on the road, and this includes Pedro road starts where Boston is 8-8 (including last two road games at Oakland this year where Pedro lost).
I'm not trying to turn you off of Boston, and I know emotions are high as much as we all try to be non-bias in our capping. I'm just laying out the data which you need to use to make an educated decision. My point is don't let the "Pedro mystique -- best pitcher in baseball" theory cloud your judgement.
If you take Boston, you are laying wood on the road team (.500 on road, .500 pitcher on road, lost last 2 games in Oakland), in the loudest home game of the season to date, vs. the opposing staff's Ace, against a team that has won L6 and is 59-24 @home.
If this were a pickem line, as I believe it should be, then you can convince me about intangibles (Sox momentum, Oakland non-clutch performance last 4 playoff series including this one)... but realize that the current line is a total over-reaction to JohnQ public pounding Boston/Pedro and Oakland's inability to close out series. Take those things aside and focus just on the game itself-- the pitchers, hitters, matchups, previous mtgs, team record @home vs. road, pitchers record @home vs. road, and venue-- then make the best non-bias play you can!
Personally, I will pound Oakland runline if I can get it -120 or better. Otherwise, wait for game time and take Oakland around +150. At +140 or higher I think there is great value on Oakland.
Good luck to all.
